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  #10241  
Old 09.06.2020, 12:47
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Re: Coronavirus

Interesting article in WaPo regarding the easing of restrictions and no increase/spike in the number of infections:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...mments-wrapper
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  #10242  
Old 09.06.2020, 12:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Uk is not closing borders, just requiring self isolation. There is zero problem getting a flight in or out of the UK
Fine which makes the trip pointless, if you have to self isolate ( at your own expense ) for 2 weeks when entering
or returning to the UK unless your a resident of a CTA agreement country.
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  #10243  
Old 09.06.2020, 13:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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Fine which makes the trip pointless, if you have to self isolate ( at your own expense ) for 2 weeks when entering
or returning to the UK unless your a resident of a CTA agreement country.
Depends on the value of the trip or the consequences of not going to the person involved.
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  #10244  
Old 09.06.2020, 13:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Uk is not closing borders, just requiring self isolation. There is zero problem getting a flight in or out of the UK
And you could at any point in the last 3 months.
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  #10245  
Old 09.06.2020, 14:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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What parts of Europe?? Most of the Western European countries are only now slowly opening up, apart of course from the UK that finally is closing the borders.
Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Austria started easing in early May. France, Italy, Spain have also followed more recently. No second wave so far.
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  #10246  
Old 09.06.2020, 14:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Interesting article in WaPo regarding the easing of restrictions and no increase/spike in the number of infections:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...mments-wrapper
Or you could read this one "Coronavirus cases spike in Texas, Oregon and Arizona"
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  #10247  
Old 09.06.2020, 15:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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Depends on the value of the trip or the consequences of not going to the person involved.
It certainly wouldn't be a holiday that's for sure.
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  #10248  
Old 09.06.2020, 16:21
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Re: Coronavirus

New CDC study. IFR around 0.3% in US
https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cd...ate-below-0-3/
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  #10249  
Old 09.06.2020, 17:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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New CDC study. IFR around 0.3% in US
https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cd...ate-below-0-3/
So IFR for normal flu around 0.03
IFR for Covid in the USA with a "lockdown" 0.3 (the numbers vary considerably here but below 0.3 as given in the article is one of the lowest estimates)

Ro for Covid without lockdown measures 2-3 (exponential rise in infections)
Ro for Covid with lockdown getting down to below 1.0 (below 1.0 and the number of infections start to fall.


Conclusion?
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  #10250  
Old 09.06.2020, 18:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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So IFR for normal flu around 0.03
IFR for Covid in the USA with a "lockdown" 0.3 (the numbers vary considerably here but below 0.3 as given in the article is one of the lowest estimates)

Ro for Covid without lockdown measures 2-3 (exponential rise in infections)
Ro for Covid with lockdown getting down to below 1.0 (below 1.0 and the number of infections start to fall.


Conclusion?
Unfortunately none of us will ever know if lockdowns did anything or whether it was purely coincidental that it did something in some places as clearly, results have been massively uneven and measures came at the complete exclusion of any other factors that most definitely had a substantial impact. Causality was established despite having no proof that there was even a correlation.

What the link also says:
"That rate is much lower than the numbers used in the horrifying projections that shaped the government response to the epidemic."

Meaning one could indeed draw a very different conclusion than the one you're implying.

However: no need to cry over spilled milk, so let's leave it up to decision-makers to explain and somehow justify their decision-making, something that will surely happen very soon.
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  #10251  
Old 09.06.2020, 18:30
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Re: Coronavirus

Travelling through Europe's eerily quite airports

Really spooky a passengers journey through the near deserted airports of Europe with the only crowded
passenger flight being the one for London before the 14 day quarantine rules are applied.

BBC - Transiting Europe's eerily quite airports
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  #10252  
Old 09.06.2020, 18:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Unfortunately none of us will ever know if lockdowns did anything or whether it was purely coincidental that it did something in some places as clearly, results have been massively uneven and measures came at the complete exclusion of any other factors that most definitely had a substantial impact. Causality was established despite having no proof that there was even a correlation.

What the link also says:
"That rate is much lower than the numbers used in the horrifying projections that shaped the government response to the epidemic."

Meaning one could indeed draw a very different conclusion than the one you're implying.

However: no need to cry over spilled milk, so let's leave it up to decision-makers to explain and somehow justify their decision-making, something that will surely happen very soon.
Brazil is showing us the result of no lockdown. The results of the lock-downs and subsequent measures may well be economic mayhem. What we will never know is whether the economic damage would indeed have been less and at what cost in lives, if there had been no lockdowns.
The worst case scenario projections have not taken place (except in Brazil and ??).
I think the case for cause ( of positive health outcomes ) has been well established for the lockdowns- Sweden is a very good pointer to the problems of a partial lockdown - their curve has have gone through a peak and is flattening, but at what residual mortality rate?

IMHO, any other conclusion is politically motivated.
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  #10253  
Old 09.06.2020, 18:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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Brazil is showing us the result of no lockdown. The results of the lock-downs and subsequent measures may well be economic mayhem. What we will never know is whether the economic damage would indeed have been less and at what cost in lives, if there had been no lockdowns.
The worst case scenario projections have not taken place (except in Brazil and ??).
I think the case for cause ( of positive health outcomes ) has been well established for the lockdowns- Sweden is a very good pointer to the problems of a partial lockdown - their curve has have gone through a peak and is flattening, but at what residual mortality rate?

IMHO, any other conclusion is politically motivated.
Belarus, Japan, South Korea...
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  #10254  
Old 09.06.2020, 19:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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Suffice to say I have every faith in Boris.

Attachment 139591
The UK government has managed this crisis so badly that not only will they have the worst death toll in Europe, they're also going to be the hardest hit economically too. This is what happens when there is a complete lack of governance, they never transitioned from chasing votes into actually leading hence used focus group reactions to manage the crisis!

An unmitigated disaster for which there needs to be some accountability. Some things are understandable, they were prepared for a flu pandemic and not a SARS pandemic. Other things though, not implementing social distancing early enough, emptying hospital beds to care homes, keeping airports open for 3 months then imposing quarantine AFTER the crisis, staying in lockdown far longer than is necessary, U turning on school openings... are just not excusable. There will be a long list of charges this government faces once the inquiry begins!

Whilst the criticisms are clear, it should also be pointed out that the UK's handling of the crisis would very likely have been no different under Jeremy Corbyn or Keir Starmer, and probably much worse. Both subscribe to the Church of the NHS which is what I'm sure will eventually form a key reason as to why the UK has seen so many deaths.
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  #10255  
Old 09.06.2020, 19:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Brazil is showing us the result of no lockdown. The results of the lock-downs and subsequent measures may well be economic mayhem. What we will never know is whether the economic damage would indeed have been less and at what cost in lives, if there had been no lockdowns.
The worst case scenario projections have not taken place (except in Brazil and ??).
I think the case for cause ( of positive health outcomes ) has been well established for the lockdowns- Sweden is a very good pointer to the problems of a partial lockdown - their curve has have gone through a peak and is flattening, but at what residual mortality rate?

IMHO, any other conclusion is politically motivated.
Brazil is not not in lockdown. Many places have indeed had restrictions and many are very similar to what it was in Switzerland.

However, Brazil also has a population of 230 million, and significant overpopulation in places and significant poverty.

If you want to understand why in some places lockdown presumably worked, you also need to look at those where it didn't, or consider those who never really locked down (even Switzerland), and consider a plethora of other factors, some mentioned above and on the previous page. Granted some of that can only be seen as of maybe two months ago, so fair enough.
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  #10256  
Old 09.06.2020, 19:39
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Re: Coronavirus

Guys is there any longer a limit for the amount of people that can gather in private residences like for house parties etc? I couldn't see anything on the BAG site.
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  #10257  
Old 09.06.2020, 19:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Guys is there any longer a limit for the amount of people that can gather in private residences like for house parties etc? I couldn't see anything on the BAG site.

Events with more than 300 people are not allowed. I assume that is also the limit for private parties.
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  #10258  
Old 09.06.2020, 19:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Guys is there any longer a limit for the amount of people that can gather in private residences like for house parties etc? I couldn't see anything on the BAG site.

Gatherings of 300 people are allowed since last Saturday, if you can keep the 2m distance https://www.thelocal.ch/20200608/swi...n-large-crowds
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  #10259  
Old 09.06.2020, 20:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Gatherings of 300 people are allowed since last Saturday, if you can keep the 2m distance https://www.thelocal.ch/20200608/swi...n-large-crowds
Places like Blenheim Palace could be available for hire for such social distancing rave parties.
It will cost you though !!
__________________________________________________ _____________________
Surely the time has come for Boris to 'circle the wagons' for a bit of herd immunity ?

Last edited by John William; 09.06.2020 at 20:47.
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  #10260  
Old 09.06.2020, 20:33
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Re: Coronavirus

Oh wow 300? Really really relaxed then... seems Summer is almost ready to be enjoyed!
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