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  #10941  
Old 10.07.2020, 14:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Trying to keep somewhat on-topic: Why do folks suppose it is that Switzerland has opened up so much and yet our cases are not going nuts like in the USA? Are people more responsible? Are we not testing enough? Numbers are going up a little but not on the same scale.
Based on the rolling 7-days total, daily new test-positives in the US have gone up by 125% since the numbers started to rise again 3 weeks ago, vs +240% in CH. Of course the absolute number of new positives is much lower around here, but that's thanks to the long lockdown and may be subject to change anytime: CH's reproduction rate is ~1.4 (according to Tagesanzeiger) vs ~1.2 in the US (my guess based on worldometers data for the 50 states).

That said, the US are testing far less than they should as roughly 10% of the tests are positive according to Vox. Switzerland's test-positive rate was 10-15% during the peak from mid-March thru mid-April, it's ~1% currently.

So, depending on how you look at it, you could just as well say that the numbers around here are going much more nuts.
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  #10942  
Old 10.07.2020, 15:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Based on the rolling 7-days total, daily new test-positives in the US have gone up by 125% since the numbers started to rise again 3 weeks ago, vs +240% in CH. Of course the absolute number of new positives is much lower around here, but that's thanks to the long lockdown and may be subject to change anytime: CH's reproduction rate is ~1.4 (according to Tagesanzeiger) vs ~1.2 in the US (my guess based on worldometers data for the 50 states).

That said, the US are testing far less than they should as roughly 10% of the tests are positive according to Vox. Switzerland's test-positive rate was 10-15% during the peak from mid-March thru mid-April, it's ~1% currently.

So, depending on how you look at it, you could just as well say that the numbers around here are going much more nuts.
Well. I still rather be in nutty Switzerland than in Houston, Miami, Phoenix right now.
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  #10943  
Old 10.07.2020, 15:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well. I still rather be in nutty Switzerland than in Houston, Miami, Phoenix right now.
That's an unfair comparison
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  #10944  
Old 10.07.2020, 17:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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No idea but then most people I know avoid crowds, do not go to clubs, try to avoid public transport etc etc. In principle same behaviour as during the lockdown.
Yes. And the moment people don't see the point in respecting these rules anymore we too will have the same problems some countries seem to be confronted with as we speak. It's when people don't wear masks and don't distance from each other anymore as a result of constant, relentless misinformation campaigns. Some mass manipulation techniques seem right from the Sputnik's and KGB's tool cabinet.
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  #10945  
Old 10.07.2020, 17:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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and here is a proper scientific peer-reviewed study showing lockdown saved many lives.
I think they should turn off the capitalistic wheels every year for a month or so. It does alot of good for people and environment.
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  #10946  
Old 11.07.2020, 07:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think they should turn off the capitalistic wheels every year for a month or so. It does alot of good for people and environment.
You know that it would translate to a month of unpaid leave, basically. It is a nice, ecological idea but it obviously comes from a place of comfort. Most people/companies I know cannot afford a month of unpaid sabatical. Capitalistic wheels are funding the retirement, too, lemi remind you.
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  #10947  
Old 11.07.2020, 08:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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UK has an excess of deaths which one can blame - at least partially - on the delay of the lockdown measures. Italy was in lockdown after the virus was already circulating there for a while. Don't know what to say about this article. It seems is missing some qualitative analysis.
That’s the point of statistics, that a the larger sample that is used the more accurate the outcome. This is why we don’t have to use the UK on its own to prove any hypothesis we have on lockdown measures. For every UK, there is a Sweden or a Belarus which show us the opposite.

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I find this a weak analysis. It completely misses the angle of timing of the lockdowns.

In any event, this pro/con lockdown discussion is misleading. Even without legal measures to slow the virus spread, people do their thing and just stop going out etc when they feel unsafe. So this narrative of "lockdowns did not help but only destroyed the economy" is false in my view. In Sweden where restaurants stayed open, they still had a 75% revenue collapse (vs. Denmark's 80% where they were closed except for take out).
And the small businesses that had to close? Shops? Hairdressers? Tattoo parlors? Not to mention schools and hospitals?

2 months since lockdown was eased and no second wave, barely a second ripple. At some point the authorities across the world will have to come clean that the lockdown was a step too far. I’m convinced that even if we see more cases in the autumn that there won’t be a second lockdown!
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  #10948  
Old 11.07.2020, 09:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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You know that it would translate to a month of unpaid leave, basically. It is a nice, ecological idea but it obviously comes from a place of comfort. Most people/companies I know cannot afford a month of unpaid sabatical. Capitalistic wheels are funding the retirement, too, lemi remind you.
What use are capitalistic wheels if people don't make it to retirement?
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  #10949  
Old 11.07.2020, 09:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Trying to keep somewhat on-topic: Why do folks suppose it is that Switzerland has opened up so much and yet our cases are not going nuts like in the USA? Are people more responsible? Are we not testing enough? Numbers are going up a little but not on the same scale.
Bunch of explanations. Some would fall under the tin-foil hat category according to some, I'm sure.

The simplest one is: better general population health, much less obesity, partly related to that much less diabetes (10.5% in US compared to 5.8% in Switzerland). Or less access to healthcare. Or both.

It's very obvious there are other factors and some inevitably must be related to general health. But the world is busy counting absolute numbers

Other explanations are far more bleak so I won't share them. Something for sure doesn't add up though.

Switzerland's number of deaths so far this year has been the same as the average over the last 5 years. So there's that.
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  #10950  
Old 11.07.2020, 10:04
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Re: Coronavirus

5km of traffic at the Gothhard today.

Are people all going to Ticino, or is Italy back on the menu?
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  #10951  
Old 11.07.2020, 10:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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5km of traffic at the Gothhard today.

Are people all going to Ticino, or is Italy back on the menu?

I assume that it's not only Swiss people queuing. Probably many people from all over Europe going to Italy, ensuring that we definitely have a second or third wave coming.
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  #10952  
Old 11.07.2020, 10:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thatís the point of statistics, that a the larger sample that is used the more accurate the outcome. This is why we donít have to use the UK on its own to prove any hypothesis we have on lockdown measures. For every UK, there is a Sweden or a Belarus which show us the opposite.
And the small businesses that had to close? Shops? Hairdressers? Tattoo parlors? Not to mention schools and hospitals?

2 months since lockdown was eased and no second wave, barely a second ripple. At some point the authorities across the world will have to come clean that the lockdown was a step too far. Iím convinced that even if we see more cases in the autumn that there wonít be a second lockdown!
It might turn out to having been a step too far but we all didn't know how to deal with this. There had to be a quick first reaction in order to find out what is being dealt with. I'm totally okay with this.
Also Switzerland might (or might not, that's not my point) have handled it differently if truly independent from the world but - being right in the heart of Europe - could not just chose a different path to go. I'm totally okay with that too. Not to mention all these people who seem to need to be ordered to do or not do things instead of looking at a situation and take their own precautions/actions according to their risk-situation would have been totally lost, the outcry would have been thonderous.
I don't really understand the hindsight discussions about was it right or wrong with people trying to "win" - win what?
The point now would be to find out how to react a next time, can we prepare re hospitals in a manner that doesn't leave them useless in "healthy" times, which measurements were very effective and quickly so that they should be repeated first a next time and which were more harm- than helpful?

I personally think it was a bit overboard but that is my feeling and I totally stand behind the decisions the Swiss government took at the time.
Had I been in the position to decide for others I might have taken the same path.

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5km of traffic at the Gothhard today.

Are people all going to Ticino, or is Italy back on the menu?
School holidays have started and many people probably think they can always go home but have to get out while they can.
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  #10953  
Old 11.07.2020, 11:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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And the small businesses that had to close? Shops? Hairdressers? Tattoo parlors? Not to mention schools and hospitals?

2 months since lockdown was eased and no second wave, barely a second ripple. At some point the authorities across the world will have to come clean that the lockdown was a step too far. Iím convinced that even if we see more cases in the autumn that there wonít be a second lockdown!
I think and hope that you are right. I am not "pro lockdown" and I do not understand why this is almost a political debate. In hindsight one could of course have handled things slightly differently, but I guess we are short people who have handled a pandemic of this proportion many times before. Given this, Switzerland and a good number of other countries have done reasonably well. For how one can f-up have a look at the US.
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Old 11.07.2020, 11:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thatís the point of statistics, that a the larger sample that is used the more accurate the outcome. This is why we donít have to use the UK on its own to prove any hypothesis we have on lockdown measures. For every UK, there is a Sweden or a Belarus which show us the opposite.

And the small businesses that had to close? Shops? Hairdressers? Tattoo parlors? Not to mention schools and hospitals?

2 months since lockdown was eased and no second wave, barely a second ripple. At some point the authorities across the world will have to come clean that the lockdown was a step too far. Iím convinced that even if we see more cases in the autumn that there wonít be a second lockdown!
Lockdowns prevent new cases, if we look at Sweden as you proposed then we find it has one of the highest rates of new cases in the world, see my recent post.

Or if we look at the US then we see ever-rising numbers of new cases, according to worldometers yesterday had a new record with over 70,000.
The COVID project has a more modest number but still a new record with over 66,000.

The COVID project also has a nice graph of hospitalizations in the US but bear in mind that three States (including the most prolific Florida) do not report.
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  #10955  
Old 11.07.2020, 13:03
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Re: Coronavirus

And yet roughly all of Europe had no increase to speak of, despite being out of various levels of lockdown for over 2 months (sporadic clusters don't count as a "surge"), Belgium for instance shut down yet was hit worse than almost all other countries in relative terms obviously (though for some reason is never mentioned anywhere), SK never shut down and has had no issues to speak of, China merely shut down one province 6 weeks after presumably discovering the virus, claiming ridiculously unbelievable numbers now that there's actually some further data, and while Beijing or Shanghai - both less than 1000km away - barely had any cases to speak of compared to the size of their populations, the likes of NY, London or Milan, all significantly further away, presumably had significantly more cases and deaths. Months and months later no less.

Makes a whole lot of "sense".

It's beyond obvious that something's not right, and whatever the hell may be going on here, there's zero obvious patterns of cause and effect for any action in any direction.

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  #10956  
Old 11.07.2020, 13:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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China merely shut down one province 6 weeks after presumably discovering the virus
Just for perspective, Hubei province has 60 million inhabitants.
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  #10957  
Old 11.07.2020, 13:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Trying to keep somewhat on-topic: Why do folks suppose it is that Switzerland has opened up so much and yet our cases are not going nuts like in the USA? Are people more responsible? Are we not testing enough? Numbers are going up a little but not on the same scale.
Perhaps the Swiss culture may play a role. This is a world of insurances, and children grow up being taught that things have a price, and actions have consequences. And if they haven't learnt it by the time they start to drive, their first stinging speeding ticket gets the point across pretty fast. The several young adults I've asked, here, about the USA "Corona parties" are appalled and cannot imagine anyone they know ever considering, for a moment, participating in such a ridiculous display of rank foolishness. They all said that it wouldn't be fair to the others attending the party, nor to all those they'd see afterwards.

The Federal Council has consistently appealed to people to consider the effects of their actions, to do the right thing, to take sensible precautions, to be reasonable, practical, to be aware of the risks and to adapt one's behaviour accordingly. They've said that they want to try to avoid setting up prohibitions or creating compulsory laws, and "masks on public transport" is a rare exception. And here, too, they have appealed to people to be fair towards all the others they meet along the way.

Similarly, they appealed to employers to facilitate their staff working from home, wherever possible.

The Federal Council stepped in impressively quickly to try to introduce a range of financial support. They had to develop these ad hoc within or besides the existing systems. One of the effects of those measures was to keep people safer, and less desperate to go out to try to earn money. And of course, having a whole society with few people in dire need of earning cash daily, just to eat, is, like the flag, a big plus.

I'm not claiming that all these steps were done perfectly. But as Curley well said, they were having to act fast and as such I agree that they did pretty well.

The regular and reliable press conferences meant that people across the country had access to the same information. Their honesty of saying: "This is probably very serious, but we don't know exactly how it works, so let's take these sensible precations," is appealing, and so, for most people, it's been fairly easy to go along with that.

And that's why, as I observe it, this, exactly:
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No idea but then most people I know avoid crowds, do not go to clubs, try to avoid public transport etc etc. In principle same behaviour as during the lockdown.
Plus now more masks than a few weeks ago.

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  #10958  
Old 11.07.2020, 14:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Lockdowns prevent new cases, if we look at Sweden as you proposed then we find it has one of the highest rates of new cases in the world[/URL].
its dropping dramatically since June 24
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  #10959  
Old 11.07.2020, 14:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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What use are capitalistic wheels if people don't make it to retirement?
Like in the US where you retire at 80 or don't at all?

Or here where people retire earlier, have health insurance and the mortality risk in that earlier age category is lower?

Expats come here but it is rare that both partners find jobs. One job per two and if that one earner is put on homeoffice I think it increases job insecurity, replaceability, etc. I still think lockdown was definitely justified, we see it now when deconfined and finally there is enough PPE to make it mandatory for general public and things can move on, cautiously.

But one has to think about real contexts - jobs here do fund retirement, be it ours, kids', etc.

So, capitalistic theories and opposing ones are great but aren't equally applicable to all contexts.

Capitalistic wheels have nothing to do with how well the society can protect their elderly at old folks homes and in medical facilities, since those are the ones primarily hit. Protection is a question of available PPE and biohazard techniques, training, etc. and accepting that high risk for some people is a sad reality that we all have to think about from now on.
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  #10960  
Old 11.07.2020, 17:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just for perspective, Hubei province has 60 million inhabitants.
I'm aware. So 25% of the size of Brazil, just under 20% of US and 8% of all of Europe. And yet...

As said. Something's not right.
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