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  #11741  
Old 18.08.2020, 10:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Fair enough, make grand unsubstantiated claims like "people don't realise they're conservative"..
As arrogant as "people don't realize where on the political spectrum they are". They are where they need to be. Who are we to say that we know exactly why they are there nor where this "place" exactly is and what to call it, each individual opionion.

These assumptions are hilarious and patronizing. And polarizing, btw. I don't think that countries have dealt with CV because there is certain political leadership which would signal political spectrum. That idea is just simplifying the issue, banalizing it.

Last edited by MusicChick; 18.08.2020 at 12:04.
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  #11742  
Old 18.08.2020, 10:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not sure if a virus will ask about your political preferences before infecting your cells, why worry?

Back to the virus in CH, around 2 weeks ago something interesting started to happen. The number of daily detected cases started to increase while the hospitalizations went down. People is getting infected and nothing happens.

https://twitter.com/BAG_OFSP_UFSP/st...746694/photo/2
This could just be that there is a lag between infections and hospitalisations as has already been seen or that a different demographic is now being infected. However this trend is also being reflected in France and across much of Europe. I believe the hospitalisation rate would be a better measure for implementing measures like nightclub closures or quarantines on entire countries.
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  #11743  
Old 18.08.2020, 10:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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I am not even questioning the study you quoted..
I would. We could so assume that the way cognitive performance was measured was probably skewed by the scientists' political self identification (so Hello, Dunning Krueger). So - how are we feeling today..conservative/progressive or smart and presumptious/modest and unassuming? My observations aren't really conservative=lowered cognitive performance=right wing. Especially not in CH. Maybe age plays a role in cognitive decline but only sometimes. Political view isn't going to automatically explain an algorithm of reaching this view. Not even in the US.

Those are huge leaps. Studies that research this smell of dubious political intent, tbh.

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..but what to do with that information? Gettin a sense of supremacy?
It wouldn't be justified.
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Thinking that there's no need to listen, even to moderate, conservatives? US Democrats, even though they are supposedly that smart, messed up big time with their basket of deplorables, this term has, imho exactly the same mindset behind it.
Trump said thank you...
He thinks, progressively, that the mindset behind is the opposite of progress

As per the right vs. the left...that has long gone, in thatt traditional sense which is being recycled here. You can see it clearly in how "right" or "left" leadership in different countries dealt with the CV. Differently. Kinda à la carte.
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Last edited by MusicChick; 18.08.2020 at 11:26.
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  #11744  
Old 18.08.2020, 10:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Did you just throw around 200 million people in the same bucket? Apart from that, nothing wrong with being rich or religious.

I am not even questioning the study you quoted, especially since it is coherent with my observation, but what to do with that information? Gettin a sense of supremacy? Thinking that there's no need to listen, even to moderate, conservatives? US Democrats, even though they are supposedly that smart, messed up big time with their basket of deplorables, this term has, imho exactly the same mindset behind it.
Trump said thank you...
From where did you magic up the 200 million figure? Two thirds of the US population

Trump did make political capital from "basket of deplorables" although, sadly, the behaviour of the basket leader over the last 3+ years has shown the accuracy of this statement.
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  #11745  
Old 18.08.2020, 12:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Back to the virus in CH, around 2 weeks ago something interesting started to happen. The number of daily detected cases started to increase while the hospitalizations went down. People is getting infected and nothing happens.

https://twitter.com/BAG_OFSP_UFSP/st...746694/photo/2
Not really surprising. Initially, no one fully knew what it was, so people just died from flu or flu-like symptoms, or another condition, exacerbated by flu. Then, after the numbers seemed a bit unusual, they started testing, but only cases with severe symptoms. Some of these cases resulted in death. Then a few weeks later, cases with some minor symptoms were tested, much fewer of which resulted in death. Now everyone who wants to gets tested, with very few infections being actual cases, let alone severe cases and deaths.

At the same time, what happens now is a natural immunization (to whatever extent or degree it may be or for however long - even temporary is enough) throughout the population - exactly what you want at this point.

Which is why "daily infections" are a meaningless measure, as is making decisions based on something that is nowhere near the same situation as in February/March. Everything gets thrown together though, every statistician's nightmare.
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  #11746  
Old 18.08.2020, 12:28
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Re: Coronavirus

You know how lockdowns don't eradicate the virus, simply delay the onslaught, and are a total waste of time, money and the future of our children?

How do you explain Wuhan, where it all started, and where there hasn't been a single domestically transmitted case in three months?



New Zealand and Australia, much the same; recent cases appear to be almost exclusively (99%) imported and spread through disregard of lockdown rules.
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  #11747  
Old 18.08.2020, 12:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not really surprising. Initially, no one knows what it was, so people just died from flu or flu-like symptoms. Then only cases with severe symptoms were tested. Some of these cases resulted in death. Then cases with some minor symptoms were tested, much fewer of which resulted in death. Now everyone who wants to gets tested, with very few infections being actual cases, let alone severe cases and deaths.

At the same time, what happens now is a natural immunization (to whatever extent or degree it may be or for however long - even temporary is enough) throughout the population - exactly what you want at this point.

Which is why "daily infections" are a meaningless measure, as is making decisions based on something that is nowhere near the same situation as in February/March. Everything gets thrown together though, every statistician's nightmare.
Indeed not a surprise. It was good to be cautious by early March. Today with much more data and insights available restrictions are being lifted. The cautiousness in March was not wrong, there were simply too many unknowns at the time.

Focusing on daily new infections today may not be as relevant as 3 months ago. It can be said today that as long as hospitals are not flooding with patients, everything is OK.
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  #11748  
Old 18.08.2020, 12:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not really surprising. Initially, no one fully knew what it was, so people just died from flu or flu-like symptoms, or another condition, exacerbated by flu. Then, after the numbers seemed a bit unusual, they started testing, but only cases with severe symptoms. Some of these cases resulted in death. Then a few weeks later, cases with some minor symptoms were tested, much fewer of which resulted in death. Now everyone who wants to gets tested, with very few infections being actual cases, let alone severe cases and deaths.

At the same time, what happens now is a natural immunization (to whatever extent or degree it may be or for however long - even temporary is enough) throughout the population - exactly what you want at this point.

Which is why "daily infections" are a meaningless measure, as is making decisions based on something that is nowhere near the same situation as in February/March. Everything gets thrown together though, every statistician's nightmare.
I do believe in daily infections stats since at least it carries a bit of retrospective info. People adjust their mobility plans. But where I am from the daily info on infections comes with localisation and cause. Ie - summer camp, nursing homes, a conference, a diner, coal mine...etc. So it comes with a very specific context and what the test/track teams are doing about it, additional measures, etc. It requires cooperation that all citizens provide, and it seems to work better than any app with dated response/data. It also preserves people's right to their medical privacy.

Vast numbers of volunteers from uni (med schools, nursing unies, scouts...you name it) are available to test/track and help with info flow/adjustments. It is old school, but we have dealt with critical crisis plans before and the fragile economy isn't something that people want to give up. Again, it is not political but ran by universities and researchers together with gov teams.
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  #11749  
Old 18.08.2020, 13:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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Back to the virus in CH, around 2 weeks ago something interesting started to happen. The number of daily detected cases started to increase while the hospitalizations went down. People is getting infected and nothing happens.

https://twitter.com/BAG_OFSP_UFSP/st...746694/photo/2
There are also suspicions that mutations of the virus make it more infectious but less "deadly" - which may be a good thing long term

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/more-in...xpert/45974220

All this to be taken with plenty of grains of salt OFC.
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  #11750  
Old 18.08.2020, 13:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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There are also suspicions that mutations of the virus make it more infectious but less "deadly" - which may be a good thing long term

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/more-in...xpert/45974220

All this to be taken with plenty of grains of salt OFC.
Today's solitary death in CH was the first for 5 days. It does seem like something is happening to the death rate. No way is it anything like 1% anymore. We've averaged over 100 (diagnosed) cases a day for a month (and god knows how many undiagnosed), so to have no deaths for four consecutive days is surprising. This being the case, I'd have thought the death rate will likely be not much more than 0.1% at the minute.

I don't know what to what extent this is driven by improved treatment. Obviously a change in age profile is a huge factor. I guess good on the older people for avoiding infection.

Surely it wouldn't hard to divide people into those carrying this mutation and those not and compare the death rates and adjust for locality of infection?

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Old 18.08.2020, 13:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Which is why "daily infections" are a meaningless measure, as is making decisions based on something that is nowhere near the same situation as in February/March. Everything gets thrown together though, every statistician's nightmare.
The number of daily infections gives you a trend and this trend is currently at approx 200/day and growing with a rate of around 26 to 33% per week since June 7th.

With the former scenario we are 5 weeks away till Germany closes the border (daily average >610 cases), with the later just 4 weeks.

Exponential growth is a bitch. It looks like tame and easy in the beginning, just to literally explode at some point (actually it always was, it is just that not noticeable). If you do not react beforehand and as soon as reasonable you are left with a situation the is not easily manageable and nearly uncontrollable. Add on top of that that due to the incubation period the daily new cases have already a delay of 1 to 2 weeks. It is a window in the past. But the daily news cases is the best forecast we have, how many hospital cases and deaths we might have to expect down the line.

If you react on hospital cases your delay is another 2 weeks. And if you act only when the rate of daily death is above a set threshold you add another 2 week of delay. That would be a total of up to 6 weeks.

Considering the current growth you must either react when the number of daily cases is at 60% of your maximum tolerable level, the daily hospital admission is at 40% of the maximum tolerabel level, or daily death are at just 25% of the maximum tolerable level. This all assumes you are able to squish the growth down to 1 or less nearly instantaneous. If you add an other 2 weeks of delay till your measures take effect, the numbers become 40%, 25%, and 15% respectively.

If Switzerland manages to get its shit together and actually try to curb the growth we might end up just bellow the 610 cases per day on average which would trigger the German border closure. If. Otherwise expect a border closure at around end of September, beginning of October.
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  #11752  
Old 18.08.2020, 13:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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The number of daily infections gives you a trend and this trend is currently at approx 200/day and growing with a rate of around 26 to 33% per week since June 7th.

With the former scenario we are 5 weeks away till Germany closes the border (daily average >610 cases), with the later just 4 weeks.

Exponential growth is a bitch. It looks like tame and easy in the beginning, just to literally explode at some point (actually it always was, it is just that not noticeable). If you do not react beforehand and as soon as reasonable you are left with a situation the is not easily manageable and nearly uncontrollable. Add on top of that that due to the incubation period the daily new cases have already a delay of 1 to 2 weeks. It is a window in the past. But the daily news cases is the best forecast we have, how many hospital cases and deaths we might have to expect down the line.

If you react on hospital cases your delay is another 2 weeks. And if you act only when the rate of daily death is above a set threshold you add another 2 week of delay. That would be a total of up to 6 weeks.

Considering the current growth you must either react when the number of daily cases is at 60% of your maximum tolerable level, the daily hospital admission is at 40% of the maximum tolerabel level, or daily death are at just 25% of the maximum tolerable level. This all assumes you are able to squish the growth down to 1 or less nearly instantaneous. If you add an other 2 weeks of delay till your measures take effect, the numbers become 40%, 25%, and 15% respectively.

If Switzerland manages to get its shit together and actually try to curb the growth we might end up just bellow the 610 cases per day on average which would trigger the German border closure. If. Otherwise expect a border closure at around end of September, beginning of October.
What do you propose? It seems reasonable and proportionate to close nightclubs and ask for masks in shops, but I don't really think going back to March conditions is really appropriate with the present situation.

Germany's cases per capita have been more or less tracking ours. Perhaps a week behind. What's the point in closing the border again. I hope we don't go back there. It was completely and utterly pointless.
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Old 18.08.2020, 13:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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We've averaged over 100 (diagnosed) cases a day for a month, so to have no deaths for four consecutive days is surprising.
Well, for the current estimated 0.5% death rate you would have 1 death every 2-4 days, sometimes less, sometimes more - so not that much of a change.

What may be different is rate of hospitalisation per infection - but since the infection testing rate also changed, this is difficult to quantify.

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Surely it wouldn't hard to divide people into those carrying this mutation and those not and compare the death rates and adjust for locality of infection?
I don't think regular Covid tests give you full information about the mutations on the virus - this is usually much more expensive to get
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Old 18.08.2020, 13:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Being conservative is only bad if you don’t realize the consequences of being “conservative” in any given political situation. That seems to be the big problem here, folks.
I'm not sure I agree with you. Can I be conservative with regards to, say, taxation and fiscal policy and liberal with regards to, say, sexual self-identification and equality of rights? Putting people in neat categories is a gross oversimplification which actually leads to the whole polarization as people are unwilling to even listen, they just put you in a category, usually different from the one you're in in order to create antagonism. It's so easy to look for differences. The real challenge is to look for similarities.
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Old 18.08.2020, 14:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well, for the current estimated 0.5% death rate you would have 1 death every 2-4 days, sometimes less, sometimes more - so not that much of a change.

What may be different is rate of hospitalisation per infection - but since the infection testing rate also changed, this is difficult to quantify.

I don't think regular Covid tests give you full information about the mutations on the virus - this is usually much more expensive to get
On the first point - this presumes you are diagnosing every case. Which obviously is nothing like a valid assumption even now.

Regarding the last point - I imagine this is true as you suggest, but it seems very much worthwhile doing.
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Old 18.08.2020, 14:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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What do you propose? It seems reasonable and proportionate to close nightclubs and ask for masks in shops, but I don't really think going back to March conditions is really appropriate with the present situation
At this point where we have an average of 1 death per day, which is my personal level of, o.k. roughly the same as traffic accidents, but it shouldn't be much more?

2 meter rule.
Last call / Polizeistunde around midnight.
Masks in all public indoor spaces (unless totally not practical like while eating in a restaurant or swimming in the pool).
Strong recommendation to use a mask also outdoors.
Strong recommendation for home office (which totally sucks).
Strong recommendation to reduce unnecessary social contacts.
Strong recommendation to use the app or keep a tally of past social contacts and movements.
Strong recommendation to shop only once a week.

Note: Is see a masks only as a tool to prevent droplet dispersion and not as a personal protective equipment. My mask protects you, your mask protects me.
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Old 18.08.2020, 14:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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At this point where we have an average of 1 death per day, which is my personal level of, o.k. roughly the same as traffic accidents, but it shouldn't be much more?

2 meter rule.
Last call / Polizeistunde around midnight.
Masks in all public indoor spaces (unless totally not practical like while eating in a restaurant or swimming in the pool).
Strong recommendation to use a mask also outdoors.
Strong recommendation for home office (which totally sucks).
Strong recommendation to reduce unnecessary social contacts.
Strong recommendation to use the app or keep a tally of past social contacts and movements.
Strong recommendation to shop only once a week.

Note: Is see a masks only as a tool to prevent droplet dispersion and not as a personal protective equipment. My mask protects you, your mask protects me.
That actually looks pretty sensible, i'd tone down the mask outdoors to mask outdoors in busy urban area, but other that I agree.
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Old 18.08.2020, 14:39
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Re: Coronavirus

In the meantime it looks like the lights are going out in airline passenger cabins all over Europe
( not just Ryanair ) thanks to the resurgence of Covid restrictions.

The Guardian - Ryanair cancels flights after fresh UK quarantine restrictions
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Old 18.08.2020, 15:13
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Re: Coronavirus

New quarantine list

Changes effective 20 August:

Removed from the list: Equatorial Guinea, São Tomé and Príncipe, Saudi Arabia, Serbia and Singapore

Added to the list: Albania, Andorra, Aruba, Belgium, Belize, Faroe Islands, Gibraltar, Guam, India, Malta, Monaco, Namibia, Spain (Balearic Islands added)
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Old 18.08.2020, 15:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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In the meantime it looks like the lights are going out in airline passenger cabins all over Europe
( not just Ryanair ) thanks to the resurgence of Covid restrictions.

The Guardian - Ryanair cancels flights after fresh UK quarantine restrictions
In fact the 'End of the World is Nigh and the Bible thumpers brigade' are at it already by proclaiming
that Covid-19 is Gods judgement upon the world and that nature has deployed her own weapons to force
mankind to change their ways by obliterating international tourism and the green house gasses that
it emits, namely passenger airplanes !!
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