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  #11881  
Old 21.08.2020, 12:16
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Re: Coronavirus

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...pe-by-country/

I'm finding this page quite useful for keeping an eye on which European countries are good or not to travel to.
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  #11882  
Old 21.08.2020, 13:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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How and when is the follow up check conducted on these people?

One of the problem with initial testing was that people who had corona virus, were positive in a test, but had not yet developed symptoms, were marked as symptom-free.
If the health workers had gone back in a couple of weeks and re-checked these people, they would have discovered that lots of these asymptomatic people had developed full-blown, and long lasting covid-19 illness.

This.
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  #11883  
Old 21.08.2020, 13:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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This.
This is a long series of "ifs" which are not supported by data. If these people would have indeed developed serious symptoms as Tom claims, they would have ended up in hospital. Yet, hospitalization rate is actually decreasing, even in the US for the past 3 weeks

"Weekly rates have declined during the most recent three weeks..."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...iew/index.html
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  #11884  
Old 21.08.2020, 14:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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You misread what he said. He's referring specifically to kids. Statistics indeed support his claim as the cumulative rate of pediatric COVID-19–associated hospitalization is really low (under 8.0 per 100,000 population)
No, I did not misread, do not put words in my mouth.

Where is the statistic of how many kids are hit by lightning to compare with your claimed COVID-19 number?
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  #11885  
Old 21.08.2020, 14:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Posting is easy. Understanding what you post is your challenge

Look at the widening gap between confirmed cases and deaths:

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

What does that tell you? As you're mathematically challenged, let me dumb it down for you:

1. More and more people are getting tested and more and more people seem to be infected
2. Surprisingly, the death rate is not growing anywhere near at the same rate as the infections.
3. Why would that be? Well, Sherlock, many explanations why, the most plausible of which is that the vast majority of people get through without even realizing it hence the mortality of the disease was grossly overestimated.

https://www.newscientist.com/article...19-cases-soar/
I recommend you read my earlier post here.
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  #11886  
Old 21.08.2020, 14:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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My reading has also suggested that the rate of false positives is in the stratosphere, and moreso when a relatively untouched population is tested.
More testing, more positive results -- not alarming in and of itself.
Yet we're preparing for confinement to protect against a 'second wave' that is based on the positive results.
Worrying.
Some here would say that I'm a right wing lunatic because I worry about our lives, liberty and prosperity if we don't approach this crisis with a good dose of critical thinking and distrust of the establishment, whether that be government or media.
Would you care to share what you are reading? Helps to establish credbility.

According to Harvard Medical School the reported rate of false positives — that is, a test that says you have the virus when you actually do not — is 5% or lower.
Source
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  #11887  
Old 21.08.2020, 14:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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I recommend you read my earlier post here.
Your earlier post states the same fact as I stated: death rate is decreasing. Why is this happening is a topic open for debate and is probably due to multiple things happening at the same time.
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  #11888  
Old 21.08.2020, 15:35
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Re: Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/richardneher/sta...79444165320704

Saw this earlier on twatter regarding a possible explanation.

Alternatively COVID1984 could just all be a hoax.
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  #11889  
Old 21.08.2020, 16:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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Your earlier post states the same fact as I stated: death rate is decreasing. Why is this happening is a topic open for debate and is probably due to multiple things happening at the same time.
So you agree there are multiple reasons and abandon your claim " the most plausible of which is that the vast majority of people get through without even realizing it".
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  #11890  
Old 21.08.2020, 16:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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As COVID-19 cases surge across Germany, at least 41 schools have reported infections in students and faculty less than two weeks since the semester started.

Hundreds of teachers and students are in quarantine
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Obviously herding chidren and teachers into schools during a pandemic is suicidal.
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  #11891  
Old 21.08.2020, 17:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Obviously herding chidren and teachers into schools during a pandemic is suicidal.

To be clear, 41 schools in Berlin only.
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  #11892  
Old 21.08.2020, 17:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Obviously herding chidren and teachers into schools during a pandemic is suicidal.
My little one goes to a joint primary and secondary school in Scotland and they have had a case with one of the older kids.

I feel it's only a matter of time before it's back to god awful Zoom classes.
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  #11893  
Old 21.08.2020, 17:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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Obviously herding chidren and teachers into schools during a pandemic is suicidal.
I'm not really sure what the alternative is. You can't zoom school kids for 2 years. The kids deserve a proper education. Maybe pay off the teachers who are in high risk categories.

I'd rather lock the over 70s up at home than stop kids going to school (ideally it would be neither though unless we can really help it).
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  #11894  
Old 21.08.2020, 18:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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I am not going to randomly read through reams of data that I have to click and open, one by one, to find anything. Please just present me with the specific data, ideally using quotes in your post, that I can look at that directly contradicts my 3.5% overall death rate from COVID19 that I took by taking the public inforomation of the identified cases vs deaths to date.

I'm happy to re-assess my opinion, but if you can't present your evidence to me in a coherent and focused manner then that makes it very difficult.
Worldometer has a better take on the global coronavirus situation than most. It's trivially simple to divide the number shown for deaths, globally, by the number shown for coronavirus cases. the answer at the time of writing is 3.48% -- i.e. the virus has a mortality rate of 3.48%.

The mortality rate varies wildly by country. For the USA, it's 3.08%. Switzerland has so far seen 5.08% mortality. In New Zealand, it's only 1.32%. Perhaps that's what gaburko was thinking of.

One thing is pretty certain, though: the true number of cases will probably never be known, as many undoubtedly go untested and unconfirmed. This means that the current mortality rates are almost certainly overstated. However, the more testing a country carries out, the more accurate the mortality rates become. This puts Trump's constant whining about testing into perspective: he claims that the USA tests more than any other country (per capita, that's far from the truth; the USA is 18th in the world on that measure), but he also claims to have done a great job on COVID-19. With a mortality rate in excess of 3% based on a relatively high testing rate, that's not how it looks to me.

It seems to me that Luxembourg gives us the best clue to the "real" mortality rate for cities (Luxembourg is a city state and is about the size of a large Swiss city) in western Europe. Their testing rate is phenomenal, at 1,126,386 per million people (yes, more than one test per person). Their mortality rate (for confirmed COVID-19 cases) is 1.62%. And the overall risk of dying from COVID-19 in Luxembourg is 198 per 1,000,000, or about 0.02%. The moral of that story is don't catch the coronavirus. And the best way to achieve that is... well, we all know. It would be interesting to hear what the economic champions would have to say if they were diagnosed with COVID-19. Or their parents, or grandparents.

Last edited by 22 yards; 21.08.2020 at 18:50. Reason: Added link
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  #11895  
Old 21.08.2020, 18:46
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Re: Coronavirus

Did we flatten the curve yet?
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  #11896  
Old 21.08.2020, 18:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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Did we flatten the curve yet?
Apparently, since we continue to have capacity in ICUs. But we haven't stopped the deaths yet.
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  #11897  
Old 21.08.2020, 19:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Worldometer has a better take on the global coronavirus situation than most. It's trivially simple to divide the number shown for deaths, globally, by the number shown for coronavirus cases. the answer at the time of writing is 3.48% -- i.e. the virus has a mortality rate of 3.48%.

The mortality rate varies wildly by country. For the USA, it's 3.08%. Switzerland has so far seen 5.08% mortality. In New Zealand, it's only 1.32%. Perhaps that's what gaburko was thinking of.

That's not the mortality rate. According to Worldometer itself you need to have the number of actual cases, not the reported cases.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/
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  #11898  
Old 21.08.2020, 19:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Apparently, since we continue to have capacity in ICUs. But we haven't stopped the deaths yet.
It's getting tiresome to turn on the tap and pretend I'm washing my hands
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  #11899  
Old 21.08.2020, 20:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's getting tiresome to turn on the tap and pretend I'm washing my hands
I bet you're one of those people who doesn't flush either.
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Old 21.08.2020, 22:55
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Re: Coronavirus

I found it interesting to learn from my 8-year old son today that his teacher is not only wearing a mask in the classroom but is also staying behind plexiglass. If they exchange papers, etc., it's done through a small window in the plexiglass, so she is not actually in physical contact with the kids. I'm curious if this is also being done at most schools here now. Does anyone know?
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