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Old 02.09.2020, 23:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thanks but what is your point exactly?

Is it a useful treatment or not?
Looks like he's pointing out that the choice of steroid (within the class) doesn't make much difference to its efficacy against COVID-19.

But clearly the bigger question is whether this cheap and plentiful steroid treatment actually makes much of a difference to prognosis and those long-term effects that some people are yet to be convinced exist. From what little I've seen, it looks like yes, they do make a difference and if I contracted the virus, I'd be asking for some hydrocortisone, dexamethasone or methylprednisolone.
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Old 02.09.2020, 23:13
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Re: Coronavirus

My knee hurts, really bad. Could you please sacrifice the lives of an immeasurable number of people so I can get my operation sooner? No? How about just one person's life then? Yes, one person should do it. That's an acceptable number for my knee.

That's what people sound like in the Tony Clifton world.

If on the other hand you could save the life of one person by postponing your knee operation for six months, would you do it?

Last edited by robogobo; 03.09.2020 at 00:03.
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Old 02.09.2020, 23:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'll tell you what is measurable is the 300,000 people awaiting knee and hip operations, many in severe pain, after the lockdown put back their appointments. I still prefer to focus on what's real like the example here, and not on the as yet unknown long terms effects of the virus.

Watching people pivot away from concentrating on deaths and hospitalisations to these mysterious long term side effects of the virus is typical disconfirmed expectancy behaviour btw.
Wut?

Everybody can have their surgeries now. And the case examples of lasting side effects are coming from a lot of doctors. I am sure they all make these stories up because of "typical disconfirmed expectancy behaviour" ...
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Old 02.09.2020, 23:34
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Re: Coronavirus

A message for Tony Clifton: I recall you stated recently that the death rate for COVID-19 is less than 1%, which you appear to believe is insignificant.

The facts are pretty clear. Worldometer states that worldwide to date, there have been 26,132,198 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection—COVID-19 cases—resulting in 865,548 deaths. That's a mortality rate of 3.31%.

Presumably your 1% figure is cherry-picked from some wealthy, first-world country, and I know you have only economic concerns at heart and couldn't give a toss for anyone but you, but it's a simple fact that more than three in 100 of those who contract the novel coronavirus around the world die. And they die relatively quickly—the virus has only been around for three-quarters of a year—but very uncomfortably.

Oh, you'll say, but the case numbers are underrepresented and the deaths are overstated. This may or may not be true, but these are the only numbers we have and it's all we can work with. The same goes, by the way, for deaths due to other illnesses. Many cancers still go undetected and most corpses are not autopsied.

So if you must focus on mortality, which is only a part of the picture—like it or not, morbidity has a large part to play in the seriousness of COVID-19—at least get your numbers right.
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Old 03.09.2020, 07:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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A message for Tony Clifton: I recall you stated recently that the death rate for COVID-19 is less than 1%, which you appear to believe is insignificant.

The facts are pretty clear. Worldometer states that worldwide to date, there have been 26,132,198 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection—COVID-19 cases—resulting in 865,548 deaths. That's a mortality rate of 3.31%.

Presumably your 1% figure is cherry-picked from some wealthy, first-world country, and I know you have only economic concerns at heart and couldn't give a toss for anyone but you, but it's a simple fact that more than three in 100 of those who contract the novel coronavirus around the world die. And they die relatively quickly—the virus has only been around for three-quarters of a year—but very uncomfortably.

Oh, you'll say, but the case numbers are underrepresented and the deaths are overstated. This may or may not be true, but these are the only numbers we have and it's all we can work with. The same goes, by the way, for deaths due to other illnesses. Many cancers still go undetected and most corpses are not autopsied.

So if you must focus on mortality, which is only a part of the picture—like it or not, morbidity has a large part to play in the seriousness of COVID-19—at least get your numbers right.
Now I believe the infection mortality rate is likely far lower than 1%, more likely less than 0.5% and approaching flu like levels. One only has to look at Switzerland, averaging around 300 cases per day at the moment but reporting on average 3 deaths per week for a long time now.

Why the mortality rate has such variation still remains to be understood: obesity rate, health care levels, better treatment for the seriously ill, climate, population density, amount of travel, genetic immunity, strains of the virus, demographics and average age, exposure to previous coronaviruses and not least counting methods. In Europe however where the stats are relatively reliable the trend now is clear.

That's all we can do now is estimate and see trends. As you say, the case numbers are underestimated which when considered reduces the death rate further still. It's good to see small indications that you're coming round to focusing on mortality and hospitalisations though!

Last edited by TonyClifton; 03.09.2020 at 08:17.
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  #12146  
Old 03.09.2020, 07:23
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Re: Coronavirus

Very good article in the FT about how Switzerland is handling the pandemic now. Good to see Switzerland is more of the opinion of the likes of V__ and myself and not the scaredy cat expats who post on this forum!!

I've highlighted a few of the more interesting parts in bold.

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Bullish Switzerland moves on from lockdown and focuses on economy
Critics warn of complacency but Bern believes the country must learn to live with virus

Switzerland prides itself on the way it managed to limit the spread of coronavirus within its borders while shielding its economy from the worst ravages of the shutdown.

But as economic stimulus packages are wound down across Europe and Covid-19 cases tick up, Bern has signalled it is the economy that must be the priority in the months ahead.

In a sign of the wealthy Alpine state’s bullishness, rules of social gatherings will under current plans be relaxed from October to allow groups of more than 1,000 to congregate. Ministers spent the week with representatives of the tourism and hospitality sector discussing how best to boost Switzerland’s important winter holiday season.

“We were confronted with something we had no clue about,” Effy Vayena, professor of bioethics at ETH Zurich, said of the outbreak of the pandemic and “needed to buy time and figure out what was happening”.

Five months on, Swiss public health authorities much better understood the dynamics and “that [lockdowns] are not sustainable”, she said. “There’s been a big shift in focus. What we’re seeing now in Switzerland is people getting used to the idea of living in a risk society. We’re asking: ‘how do we live with this?’”

Since Switzerland’s formal state of emergency ended in mid-June it has been left to the 26 individual cantons to set their own rules. They are as sanguine as the federal government. Zurich, the biggest city, introduced compulsory mask wearing in shops only last week, months after other European countries brought in similar legislation.

The sensible course was to focus on getting life back to normal — for the economy and society as a whole, Prof Vayena said, adding that, above all, “the Swiss like balance”.

For some policymakers in Bern, the whole idea of a trade-off between the economy and public health was a false one. The strategy was never to defeat the virus using public policy tools, said one senior scientific adviser to the government in Bern, but to cope with it.

“The important thing is that we can manage the situation. When I look at other countries, maybe they’re less confident that they can,” the adviser said. “Maybe that’s why you’re seeing more border closures and hardline measures being taken and talked about elsewhere.”

In every country the pandemic has played out against existing political and social cleavages: Switzerland’s system comprising strong but locally focused communities and a laissez-faire approach from national government has been no exception.

Switzerland in March took an early decision to shut down public life but it was also one of the first in Europe to reopen its hospitality sector. Restaurants and bars have been bustling since mid-May while shops have been filled over the summer.

Alain Berset, the interior minister, stated late last month that the virus situation in Switzerland was “fragile . . . but under control”. Lukas Engelberger, the official responsible for co-ordinating federal health policy, said at the same press conference that the cantons and federal government would do all they could to avoid another public lockdown.

The Swiss public in general support that approach. The outcry to an otherwise minor gaffe by public health officials a month ago underscores the extent to which many Swiss are suspicious of renewed curbs on social life.

An official report from July 31 erroneously wrote that two-thirds of new infections in Switzerland were traceable to pubs and clubs. In fact, the government’s figures, corrected days later, showed that just 1.9 per cent of new infections occurred in nightclubs and a further 1.6 per cent in bars and restaurants. Most — 27 per cent — occurred within families.

Switzerland’s virus case numbers have, nevertheless, been steadily rising. The Federal Office of Public Health reported 216 new cases on Tuesday, bringing the rolling seven-day total to 22 cases per 100,000 residents.The UK government imposed a two-week quarantine requirement on all arrivals from Switzerland on August 27.

Critics warn that Switzerland is flirting with complacency. The rebound of Swiss social life over what has been a long and dry summer has been an almost entirely al fresco affair. As temperatures drop, it is unclear whether the virus caseload will tick up further as people gather indoors.

Bern has insisted that its confidence is backed by hard science. While the infection rate has inched up over the summer, admissions to hospital and deaths have barely moved upward from their post-lockdown lows. There are an average of just 3 deaths from Covid-19 a week in Switzerland.

Additionally, Switzerland’s tracing app and contact tracing programme has so far proved effective. The app has 2m downloads already — roughly a quarter of the population. While more are needed to make it fully effective, the early figures are promising, health officials believe.

“Switzerland has experienced a lower death rate than others and that’s due to a strong healthcare system,” said Suzanne Suggs, professor at the University of Italian Switzerland in Lugano and vice-president of the Swiss School of Public Health. “[Even] while pushed to its brink, we could handle it better than many countries.”

Nevertheless, she warned, a lot could change in the coming months. Effective communication will be key. “Everyone is tired of the pandemic and wants this virus to go,” she said. “But it is not tired of us.”
https://www.ft.com/content/42a1a52b-...t=intlhomepage
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Old 03.09.2020, 07:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Very good article in the FT about how Switzerland is handling the pandemic now. Good to see Switzerland is more of the opinion of the likes of V__ and myself and not the scaredy cat expats who post on this forum!!
So you post for the "scaredy cat expats" here to convince them they were wrong all along and you were right, while at the same time insulting them? Looks like trying to win a marathon while shooting yourself in the foot.
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Old 03.09.2020, 07:43
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Re: Coronavirus

Interesting article in 20min with some lessons learned and hindsight about the lockdown (in German): https://www.20min.ch/story/gesundhei...n-101403914040
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Old 03.09.2020, 08:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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So you post for the "scaredy cat expats" here to convince them they were wrong all along and you were right, while at the same time insulting them? Looks like trying to win a marathon while shooting yourself in the foot.
Insulting them?! Have you seen some of the names I've been called? Scaredy cat barely even registers on the gentle ribbing by comparison!

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Interesting article in 20min with some lessons learned and hindsight about the lockdown (in German): https://www.20min.ch/story/gesundhei...n-101403914040
Thanks for that, indeed with hindsight it's clear that the lockdown was a mistake. TBF I think Switzerland dealt with the situation very well, coming out of lockdown very early as soon as they understood the risk wasn't as great as first expected. I think it's even hard to be too critical of going into lockdown given the unknowns at the time.

Interesting poll too, it seems most of Switzerland must also be far-right or libertarian too, perhaps they also don't realise it
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Old 03.09.2020, 08:39
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Re: Coronavirus

I have this habit when I don't know something I turn to a trusted authority for guidance. Re masks, I cannot form a scientific opinion as I am no expert in this particular field. I prefer to follow the guidance of the Swiss government, which I trusted before, but I trust now even more as I think they have and are handling the situation in the best way possible.

Wear a f$%kn mask. at least not to annoy everyone else on the tram.

edit: sorry, this was supposed to be in the "mask dodgers" thread, I must have taken de-caf this morning
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  #12151  
Old 03.09.2020, 09:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just wear a mask. It's good for you and others.

no need to shave
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Old 03.09.2020, 09:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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Insulting them?! Have you seen some of the names I've been called? Scaredy cat barely even registers on the gentle ribbing by comparison!



Thanks for that, indeed with hindsight it's clear that the lockdown was a mistake. TBF I think Switzerland dealt with the situation very well, coming out of lockdown very early as soon as they understood the risk wasn't as great as first expected. I think it's even hard to be too critical of going into lockdown given the unknowns at the time.

Interesting poll too, it seems most of Switzerland must also be far-right or libertarian too, perhaps they also don't realise it
Sorry, but I cannot take embedded polls in papers like 20min seriously, especially when the headline of the article will likely draw disproportionate attention from people who already agree with the headline statement.

This is a purely methodological observation.
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Old 03.09.2020, 09:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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no need to shave

Or brush your teeth
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Old 03.09.2020, 09:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Or brush your teeth
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Old 03.09.2020, 09:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've read about ugly long term issues like lack losing pulmonary capacity, brain fog, or chronic fatigue. But do these things appear in cases that require hospitalization or also in mild cases?
if you will search about flu post effects, you'll find exactly the same set of problems: blood cloths, pulmonary problems etc
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Old 03.09.2020, 09:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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Best case scenario, it disappears like SARS and the Spanish flu,
Spanish flu didnt disappeared. Its now known as flu type A. Just less dangerous because of mutations. Think same will happen with covid19
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Old 03.09.2020, 09:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Now I believe the infection mortality rate is likely far lower than 1%, more likely less than 0.5% and approaching flu like levels. One only has to look at Switzerland, averaging around 300 cases per day at the moment but reporting on average 3 deaths per week for a long time now.

Why the mortality rate has such variation still remains to be understood: obesity rate, health care levels, better treatment for the seriously ill, climate, population density, amount of travel, genetic immunity, strains of the virus, demographics and average age, exposure to previous coronaviruses and not least counting methods. In Europe however where the stats are relatively reliable the trend now is clear.

That's all we can do now is estimate and see trends. As you say, the case numbers are underestimated which when considered reduces the death rate further still. It's good to see small indications that you're coming round to focusing on mortality and hospitalisations though!
From the WHO website, the number we seek is the Infection Fatality Rate:

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Calculating IFR
The true severity of a disease can be described by the Infection Fatality Ratio:


Serological testing of a representative random sample of the population to detect evidence of exposure to a pathogen is an important method to estimate the true number of infected individuals [7,8,9]. Many such serological surveys are currently being undertaken worldwide [10], and some have thus far suggested substantial under-ascertainment of cases, with estimates of IFR converging at approximately 0.5 - 1% [10-12].

As serological studies require an investment of time and resources, there are many situations in which they may not be conducted timely, or even at all. Nevertheless, it remains crucial to monitor trends in severity in real time. In such situations, estimates need to be made with routinely available surveillance data, which generally consist of time-series of cases and deaths reported in aggregate.
The referenced studies were for Switzerland and Sweden - first world countries, but nevertheless giving an indication of true mortality from COVID-19 when medical infrastructure isn't overwhelmed. I always thought that the best IFR-CFR convergence would really come from countries that were testing the hell out of their populations - in the Gulf states, for example, where the CFR is generally below 1%.

Dr. Anthony Fauci has also stated in some interviews that the IFR is probably somewhere around 0.5-1%, which in comparison to seasonal flu is still about 5 to 50 times worse.

I've followed this whole debate with fascination. I personally am quite happy with how the Swiss government handled it. I think the lockdown in the beginning was justified, because we really didn't know what we were dealing with. I think another lockdown is out of the question, but we'll have to see how things evolve as the temperature starts to fall. The general trend of low hospitalizations and deaths is very encouraging, but we still really need to know more about the long term effects - I would really like to see more data about the so-called "long-haulers".
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Old 03.09.2020, 09:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Critics warn of complacency but Bern believes the country must learn to live with virus
this is the most important point coming out of the FT article.

Just like crossing the road is dangerous, so is breathing and being around other people. It demands some common sense from people with symptoms to avoid infecting others and from those others to manage risks too, often with masks.

If you're like me, I've been avoiding touching things like lift buttons, door handles, escalator and stair banisters. Heck, I even have waited in the WC of a bar or restaurant for the next person to come in so that I don't have to touch the door (where paper towels are not available)

The hardest thing is to try to guide a helpless teenager who touches everything and constantly has his hands on or near his face......
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Old 03.09.2020, 09:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Insulting them?! Have you seen some of the names I've been called? Scaredy cat barely even registers on the gentle ribbing by comparison!
It’s true. I called him a Libertarian and there is no greater insult than that. How could one sink any lower down the evolutionary sewer than an apathetic, myopic, contrarian, willfully ignorant vomitous offense to human intelligence that categorically defines Libertarianism. They are indeed the lowest of the low.

Indeed, thinking about a deadly pandemic that’s killed hundreds of thousands of people with a death rate far exceeding the flu*, we scaredy cats should be thankful not to be called Libertarians, because at least we can do simple math and get out of the way when a bus is about to run us over. A Libertarian has to get pushed out of the way by a Liberal and then complain about the inconvenience because surely the bus wasn't so big, if it even existed at all.

*incontrovertible fact in all but Libertarian La La Land where you can say the lockdown was a mistake and also handled very well in the same sentence.
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Old 03.09.2020, 09:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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It’s true. I called him a Libertarian and there is no greater insult than that. How could you sink any lower down the evolutionary sewer than an apathetic, myopic, contrarian, willfully ignorant vomitous offense to human intelligence that categorically defines Libertarianism. They are indeed the lowest of the low.

Indeed, thinking about a deadly pandemic that’s killed hundreds of thousands of people with a death rate far exceeding the flu*, we scaredy cats should be thankful not to be called Libertarians, because at least we can do simple math and get out of the way when a bus is about to run us over. A Libertarian has to get pushed out of the way by a Liberal and then complain about the inconvenience because surely the bus wasn't so big, if it even existed at all.

*incontrovertible fact in all but Libertarian La La Land where you can say the lockdown was a mistake and also handled very well in the same sentence.
Please stop.
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