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  #12441  
Old 08.09.2020, 23:23
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Re: Coronavirus

Sorry..my bad as I posted this response under the wrong thread.

In response to Robogodo...Here you go:

I rarely groan...but you remind me of Trump in your callous disregard as anyone who proffers a different view from you, are idiots...or "FAKE NEWS". Perhaps, you cannot see that others have a point here? Or are you too narcissistic to think your view is the ONLY view??

PS...just so we are clear, I spent 2 months back in PA and there is no confusion on my part as to where I was or where I am (Just returned on Saturday). I may have a slightly broader perspective on this virus as to how this affects many in the US. And for the record, the economic reality is not looking so good. I am not a Covid Denier... This virus is here to stay; the question is: at what cost?
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  #12442  
Old 08.09.2020, 23:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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You forgot to mention that Cain struggled and yet survived Stage 4 Colon cancer in 2006. He was in a high risk, comorbidity category and should have taken safeguards/precautions which clearly he did not take. A shame on all levels as he underestimated his risk.
If he couldn't work out that as a 75 year old black male who survived cancer that he was at risk then really there is something quite wrong. It's sad he died though.
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  #12443  
Old 08.09.2020, 23:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sorry..my bad as I posted this response under the wrong thread.

In response to Robogodo...Here you go:

I rarely groan...but you remind me of Trump in your callous disregard as anyone who proffers a different view from you, are idiots...or "FAKE NEWS". Perhaps, you cannot see that others have a point here? Or are you too narcissistic to think your view is the ONLY view??

PS...just so we are clear, I spent 2 months back in PA and there is no confusion on my part as to where I was or where I am (Just returned on Saturday). I may have a slightly broader perspective on this virus as to how this affects many in the US. And for the record, the economic reality is not looking so good. I am not a Covid Denier... This virus is here to stay; the question is: at what cost?
OMG seriously? You posted it in the other thread and actually quoted my post from that other thread???

Maybe you should wait for your jet lag to wear off before touching the keyboard. I understand you've got Trump on the brain but YOU'RE BARKING UP THE WRONG TREE.

Ugh, what a zoo. I'm signing off for the evening. You guys can all snark each other without me if it amuses you so.
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  #12444  
Old 08.09.2020, 23:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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If he couldn't work out that as a 75 year old black male who survived cancer that he was at risk then really there is something quite wrong. It's sad he died though.
I agree... He should have taken precautions. A shame ...
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  #12445  
Old 08.09.2020, 23:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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OMG seriously? You posted it in the other thread and actually quoted my post from that other thread???

Maybe you should wait for your jet lag to wear off before touching the keyboard. I understand you've got Trump on the brain but YOU'RE BARKING UP THE WRONG TREE.

Ugh, what a zoo. I'm signing off for the evening. You guys can all snark each other without me if it amuses you so.
I did not quote your post robogodo...I simply copied my post. But I am beginning to believe my Trump analogy was on course given your response
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  #12446  
Old 08.09.2020, 23:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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I did not quote your post robogodo...I simply copied my post. But I am beginning to believe my Trump analogy was on course given your response
Huh. That sure looks like a quote to me. Yes, definitely back away from the keyboard until your jet lag wears off. And cut the Trump stuff. You're seriously being shitty. And wrong.

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  #12447  
Old 09.09.2020, 08:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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I never said or expressed that it's a binary choice.
Yes, you did. Again in the same post

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it's a matter of which perspective you take -- whether that of the economy or that of trying to help save lives and keep more people from becoming seriously ill.


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I don't think you can judge the severity of the coronavirus according to death rates alone. The other day I watched a video...
On the internet one can find a video for absolutely anything. It's going back to my point of anecdotal, small and non-representative samples that are used to nudge in one direction or another. This is why in science we do randomized controlled trials with sufficient sample sizes: to ensure validity. Otherwise we can "prove" or "reject" absolutely anything just by the power or loudness of ones statements. Luckily, it's a bit more sophisticated than that.

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The majority of us have the luxury of being rather far-removed from the reality of the situation
I think you're on the right path here. How come the majority are far removed, but it's reality? Reality for whom? for 1-2-3% of the population. Does that make it a universal reality?


robogobo: you are becoming my absolutely favorite poster! Expressing probabilities is certainly not your forte and maybe refrain from making statements that don't show your IQ in a flattering way. Stick to alarmist statements, thats where you're strong

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this is my definition on the simplest math that can demonstrate that the chances of spreading COVID are definitely not less than they were in the spring.
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1 < 1,000,000
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  #12448  
Old 09.09.2020, 10:53
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Re: Coronavirus

Switzerland update.Detected cases keep going slowly up (300-350 per day), around 4 hospitalizations per day due to covid19, less than 1 death per day. Not bad https://twitter.com/BAG_OFSP_UFSP/st...90651409362944

The total confirmed cases since February are 44837. Total cases divided by 8.5 million people means around 0.5% of the population has a confirmed diagnostic. https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home...rnational.html

That's the known data. Beyond here only simulations and speculations. What do you think is happening? How many more people contracted the virus, felt nothing and never got a test. Any one have seen an estimate of how many of us already got sick? Knowingly and not.

Last edited by Axa; 09.09.2020 at 11:20. Reason: fixed the number of total cases in CH
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  #12449  
Old 09.09.2020, 11:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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Switzerland update.Detected cases keep going slowly up (300-350 per day), around 4 hospitalizations per day due to covid19, less than 1 death per day. Not bad https://twitter.com/BAG_OFSP_UFSP/st...90651409362944

The total confirmed cases since February are 4483. Total cases divided by 8.5 million people means around 0.5% of the population has a confirmed diagnostic. https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home...rnational.html

That's the know data. Beyond here only simulations and speculations. What do you think is happening? How many more people contracted the virus, felt nothing and never got a test. Any one have seen an estimate of how many of us already got sick? Knowingly and not.
They're coming around, slowly but surely. We now know without a doubt that Covid is not nearly as bad as we first feared, and certainly never warranted the massive global panic we've seen (and are still seeing). Covid is here to stay, and we have to learn to live with it. Tough if you get it, but not a fraction as bad as many people fear. For the time being it appears that it has taken those it wanted and has now run out of steam.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54064347
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  #12450  
Old 09.09.2020, 11:11
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Re: Coronavirus

Nice to see that hospitalization, and infection rates for the older generation are dropping.
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  #12451  
Old 09.09.2020, 11:27
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Re: Coronavirus

Here is an article from the Washington Post on recovery from Covid in Bergamo.

Italy’s Bergamo is calling back coronavirus survivors. About half say they haven’t fully recovered.

SEPTEMBER 8, 2020

BERGAMO, Italy — The first wave is over, thousands have been buried, and in a city that was once the world’s coronavirus epicenter, the hospital is calling back the survivors. It is drawing their blood, examining their hearts, scanning their lungs, asking them about their lives.

Twenty people per day, it is measuring what the coronavirus has left in its wake.

“How are you feeling?” a doctor recently asked the next patient to walk in, a 54-year-old who still can’t ascend a flight of steps without losing her breath.

“I feel like I’m 80 years old,” the woman said.

Six months ago, Bergamo was a startling warning sign of the virus’s fury, a city where sirens rang through the night and military trucks lined up outside the public hospital to ferry away the dead. Bergamo has dramatically curtailed the virus’s spread, but it is now offering another kind of warning, this one about the long aftermath, where recoveries are proving incomplete and sometimes excruciating.

Those who survived the peak of the outbreak in March and April are now negative. The virus is officially gone from their systems.

“But we are asking: Are you feeling cured? Almost half the patients say no,” said Serena Venturelli, an infectious-disease specialist at the hospital.

The follow-ups with the once-hospitalized patients are the basis for medical research: Their health records now fill 17 bankers’ boxes, and scientific reports are on the way. Bergamo doctors say the disease clearly has full-body ramifications but leaves wildly differing marks from one patient to the next, and in some cases few marks at all. Among the first 750 patients screened, some 30 percent still have lung scarring and breathing trouble. The virus has left another 30 percent with problems linked to inflammation and clotting, such as heart abnormalities and artery blockages. A few are at risk of organ failure.

Beyond that, according to interviews with eight Pope John XXIII Hospital doctors involved in the work, many patients months later are dealing with a galaxy of daily conditions and have no clear answer on when it will all subside: leg pain, tingling in the extremities, hair loss, depression, severe fatigue.

Some patients had preexisting conditions, but doctors say survivors are not simply experiencing a version of old problems.

“We are talking about something new,” said Marco Rizzi, the head of the hospital’s infectious-disease unit.

One patient, Giuseppe Vavassori, 65, has developed short-term memory loss and now lives under a mountain of Post-it notes and handwritten reminders, with names and phone numbers, so he can still run his funeral home business. A post-covid MRI showed dot-like lesions on his brain.

Another, Guido Padoa, 61, recovered well enough that he was able to go on vacation this summer. But he sleeps four extra hours per night and sometimes falls asleep suddenly midday, head on the computer keyboard.

Some patients who were self-reliant before contracting the virus remain so weakened that, when they arrive for their follow-up appointments, they’re helped to the waiting room by relatives, or in wheelchairs. Four people so far were too frail to make it through the several hours of testing and were rushed instead to the emergency room. Other times, people show up months later, having been through the worst — oxygen support, intubations — and are, improbably, almost fine. Doctors say one of the virus’s mysteries is how recoveries can be swift for some and brutal for others.

Venturelli mentioned a man in his 80s who’d come in for his follow-up visit, mostly recovered. His son, who’d also been infected, hadn’t fared as well. When Venturelli tried to refer the father to a specialist, he said he was too busy these days.

Covid had turned the father into his son’s caretaker.

THE BERGAMO RESEARCH is being led by the same doctors who worked frantic 14-hour days in March, sometimes falling sick themselves, while watching patients rapidly outnumber the beds. Now, wearing just masks, those same doctors and patients are sitting down together in a way that was impossible months ago.

“We did feel a moral obligation to call them back,” said Venturelli, who helped start the study in early May. “It was such a tsunami for us. What we saw in March was a tragedy, not a normal hospitalization.”

Bergamo, in March, was a place with six-hour waits for ambulances and 16-hour waits in the ER. At one point, the hospital had 92 people on ventilators — compared with 143 now in all of Italy — and so many who required breathing assistance that it needed to pipe in oxygen from a rush-delivered emergency tank. Subsequent antibody sampling, according to the government, indicated that one-quarter of Bergamo’s 1.1 million people were infected with the virus.

“I have a picture in my mind from that time of the ER with eight ambulances queuing outside,” said head nurse Monica Casati. Inside the hospital, she said, people were crying, moaning and gasping for air. “It was a noise that would remind you of Dante’s inferno,” she said.

The hospital was admitting only the worst cases, and to keep pace with the influx, it sometimes had to discharge patients before they were fully ready — something confirmed when the hospital started calling people for the follow-ups. In addition to the 440 people who died while hospitalized, 220 died after being told to go home.

A patient gets his respiration rate checked. Among the first 750 patients screened, about 30 percent exhibited breathing trouble and permanent lung scarring.
The study in Bergamo is one of multiple efforts around the world to examine aspects of covid’s lingering damage. One German study of 100 people found that nearly 80 percent had heart abnormalities several months after infection. Other studies are underway to look specifically at “long-haulers” — a subset of people, some never hospitalized, who nonetheless have fatigue and other symptoms months after the illness.

Some of the doctors in Bergamo see reasons for encouragement in their findings, especially given the severity of what patients faced in March and April and the trial-and-error treatments they were given. They say that patients’ breathing seems to gradually improve, even though the lung scarring is permanent. Doctors have found nobody with a fever.

“Many of them coming in for repeat visits, they are doing better now than they were in May,” said Caterina Conti, a lung specialist.

For the patients who have been able to regain a semblance of their lives, the last barrier is the trauma itself — the raw memory of being in a hospital where so many were dying, and wondering if they might be next. Padoa, a photographer, said he remembers hearing others in his ward struggling to breathe, and seeing hospital workers remove the bodies, change the bedsheets. With his own lungs on the brink of failure, he worried what might happen if he let his eyes close, so he drew on his training four decades earlier as a paratrooper. Under an oxygen helmet, as it beeped and hissed, he willed himself to stay awake for five days, he said.

“It’s like when you are on a high mountain in the cold,” Padoa said. “If you fall asleep, you die.”

BUT THE GRAVEST patients of all, like Mirco Carrara, 55, have no recovery in sight.

By the time he arrived for his follow-up, it was late August, and he’d moved back into his home on the outskirts of Bergamo. He’d started going to work again, as a manager at a military parts company. But he was also coming to terms with how drastically his life had changed.

He had spent more than a month in a medically induced coma. In the middle of that, he was transferred on a German medevac plane to a hospital in Cologne. Doctors there saw that his lungs had developed not only scars but also a fungal infection. He was removed from the ventilator, re-intubated after his lung collapsed, then removed again. By the time he returned, conscious, to a rehabilitation center in Italy, Carrara had lost 45 pounds. He needed to relearn to swallow and stand.

And even that he had felt capable of doing, until doctors told him one more thing. The full trauma of covid — the ventilation, the treatment, the compounding infections — meant there were now fungus-filled bubbles inside his lungs, each a bomb-like threat that could critically impair his breathing if it burst.

“I started crying,” Carrara said. “Up until that point, I had thought I’d be able to recover.”

In an interview, Simone Benatti, the doctor at Pope John XXIII who consulted with Carrara, described the air and fungus bubbles as a “bad complication” and mentioned a separate Italian study showing that some deceased covid victims were found to have bacterial or fungal abscesses in their lungs.

“There is an interplay between covid and other infections,” Benatti said.

Carrara said the bubbles were like a “Damocles sword,” and soon enough, in early June, a cough sent his oxygen levels dipping. His girlfriend rushed him to the hospital. He had a tube inserted into his lungs for a week. A month later, it happened again — dipping oxygen; another hospital trip; another surgery to drain his lung — except this time, he wasn’t even sure what set it off. He felt a rage about his body. He said he wished the surgeon would “just cut my lung out."

He arrived for his follow-up in Bergamo carrying a thick stack of medical paperwork and figured there was only so much more about his body he cared to know. Like the others, he submitted to a CT scan, an echocardiogram and blood tests. But when filling out a survey about how he was feeling and coping, he checked all the boxes in the “middle,” he said — moderate, good, okay.

“I lied,” Carrara said.

He didn’t mention how deep his despair has been, as he comes to grips with his lungs. He didn’t mention the guilt he felt, wondering if he passed the virus to his father, who had not survived. He didn’t mention his first nights back home, when he lay fully awake, one night and then two nights and then three. He didn’t say how his partner then said enough was enough, and went to the pharmacy to get sleeping pills, and how he’d agreed to take them, because that was the one way to briefly quiet his mind six months after being infected with covid-19.

“The bubbles will remain. They’re not going anywhere,” Carrara said, and he figured it was just a matter of time before he was back in the hospital again.

“I live with this terror,” he said.
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  #12452  
Old 09.09.2020, 11:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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They're coming around, slowly but surely. We now know without a doubt that Covid is not nearly as bad as we first feared, and certainly never warranted the massive global panic we've seen (and are still seeing). Covid is here to stay, and we have to learn to live with it. Tough if you get it, but not a fraction as bad as many people fear. For the time being it appears that it has taken those it wanted and has now run out of steam.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54064347
Haha, we keep talking about the same.....the problem is I enjoy it

Fear is a feeling and anyone is free to feel whatever they want.

I don't think the (soft) lockdowns were unwarranted. I'm not a war or disaster scientist but my little manager experience tells me there's always bottlenecks in any process or project. If a few or even 1 people in your team fail, the whole project is in trouble. In the case of the virus, if a few key people in Switzerland got disabled or died, we would have been in deep deep trouble. Key people means health personnel, people involved in electricity generation and distribution, the food supply chain and other vital supply chains.

Sorry for the dumb example but the UK PM was out for several weeks and nothing happened. If key people at a nuclear power plan were out for the same time period, it gets stressful.
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  #12453  
Old 09.09.2020, 11:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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They're coming around, slowly but surely. We now know without a doubt that Covid is not nearly as bad as we first feared, and certainly never warranted the massive global panic we've seen (and are still seeing). Covid is here to stay, and we have to learn to live with it. Tough if you get it, but not a fraction as bad as many people fear. For the time being it appears that it has taken those it wanted and has now run out of steam.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54064347
You're projecting again.
You were fearful and you panicked.
Weirdly, you've also bestowed the virus with attributes which would more commonly be seen in a marauding horror film villain/beast. Quite peculiar.
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  #12454  
Old 09.09.2020, 12:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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You're projecting again.
You were fearful and you panicked.
Weirdly, you've also bestowed the virus with attributes which would more commonly be seen in a marauding horror film villain/beast. Quite peculiar.
Covid is still very much a concern where I am. These covid deniers are quite extraordinary.
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Old 09.09.2020, 13:02
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Re: Coronavirus

We just got the negative test result for my daughter.


She had a very mild flu that seems to go through the school (and makes you wonder if the protection concept is very effective). Normally, we would have sent her to school already a couple of days ago but her symptoms qualified for the test. The awkward waiting for the result, where the child is healthy but has to isolate, and you yourself are wondering from whom she could have gotten it, is a new experience.
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Old 09.09.2020, 13:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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They're coming around, slowly but surely. We now know without a doubt that Covid is not nearly as bad as we first feared, and certainly never warranted the massive global panic we've seen (and are still seeing). Covid is here to stay, and we have to learn to live with it. Tough if you get it, but not a fraction as bad as many people fear. For the time being it appears that it has taken those it wanted and has now run out of steam.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54064347
An article written by two journalists - who aren't necessarily more informed than the rest of us.

They questioned why the number of cases is increasing but the death and hospital rates were not and suggested:

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One theory is that more testing is uncovering a larger number of mild cases which don't need treatment. Another is that more of the cases are among younger people, who are less likely to become very ill.
Another factor to add, which they did not mention, is that current cases of COVID-19 are not so severe because of social distancing and mask wearing.
When precautions are taken, - even with a badly fitting mask, the viral load received is simply not not high enough for the receiving person to get infected in a severe way so they still get the diseases, but in a mild manner.


If all social distancing was to be removed and masked not worn by anyone - I would surmise that the number of severe cases would increase quite sharply.
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Old 09.09.2020, 13:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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You're projecting again.
You were fearful and you panicked.
Weirdly, you've also bestowed the virus with attributes which would more commonly be seen in a marauding horror film villain/beast. Quite peculiar.
What is this word "projecting"? Is this an opinion one doesn't agree with?

I was fearful at the beginning, which I think is a natural reaction given what we were told, however not I'm not anymore due to what we now know and have known for months. I never panicked though.
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  #12458  
Old 09.09.2020, 13:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes, you did. Again in the same post
robogobo: you are becoming my absolutely favorite poster! Expressing probabilities is certainly not your forte and maybe refrain from making statements that don't show your IQ in a flattering way. Stick to alarmist statements, thats where you're strong
I'm glad you find simple math so entertaining! I'm trying to keep it down to a level even a remedial math teacher can understand, and eschew the smokescreen nonsense you seem to enjoy spewing. So far, you've yet to actually refute anything I've said, let alone actually support any of your claims. All you seem to have is snark. Nothing of substance.

Mock the ultra easy math if you want, but really nothing more is necessary to prove my point. The fact is, we have several orders of magnitude more likelihood of spreading because there are several orders of magnitude more cases than we started with in the spring. It's just a simple fact, simply illustrated and impossible to refute, and all you can answer with is snark. Apparently you think that makes you smart. It most certainly does not.

Now, if you don't actually want to back up your claims, and you have nothing more to add, please do us all a favor and stop pressing your nonsense.

As 3Wishes recently recommended to me, I'll replace my normally sharper evaluation of your intelligence with "that's a flawed way of thinking". Deep breath.
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  #12459  
Old 09.09.2020, 13:37
Elu Elu is offline
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another factor to add, which they did not mention, is that current cases of COVID-19 are not so severe because of social distancing and mask wearing.
When precautions are taken, - even with a badly fitting mask, the viral load received is simply not not high enough for the receiving person to get infected in a severe way so they still get the diseases, but in a mild manner.


If all social distancing was to be removed and masked not worn by anyone - I would surmise that the number of severe cases would increase quite sharply.
This!
I think its important to take this lower numbers as a sign that safety measurements are working (and there is no need to panic.)

Getting the idea of "Covid isn't dangerous anymore" would be a possibly costly mistake.
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  #12460  
Old 09.09.2020, 13:41
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Re: Coronavirus

Professor Gupta speaking a lot of sense on Channel 4 News yesterday. Protect the vulnerable, ease restrictions, aim for herd immunity.

https://www.channel4.com/news/we-sho...-sunetra-gupta
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