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  #1501  
Old 03.03.2020, 21:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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And you will look stylish and not-at-all-like-a-tit. Bonus.
No, though you would look like a p-i-k.
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Old 03.03.2020, 22:31
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Re: Coronavirus

Washington state - 27 cases (includes 9 fatalities), if I did this right on my fingers that is a 33% death rate?

Or something special for Washingtonians
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  #1503  
Old 03.03.2020, 22:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, though you would look like a p-i-k.
It's only fair to let people know right from the start.


I thought this time I order my medication a bit sooner than as usual at the last moment.
It was subtle but it was there: The reply-email said: "If the medicine is deliverable it will be ready for you to be picked up by Friday afternoon. Should it not arrive, we will inform you by phone".
That was a totally new text.
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  #1504  
Old 03.03.2020, 22:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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Washington state - 27 cases (includes 9 fatalities), if I did this right on my fingers that is a 33% death rate?

Or something special for Washingtonians
Except that those 27 cases are the most severe. What if that’s just the tail end of the distribution and there are lots more cases that were never tested and less severe.
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Old 03.03.2020, 22:48
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Re: Coronavirus

WHO announced at their press conference today that the global death rate currently stands at 3.4% of those infected
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  #1506  
Old 03.03.2020, 22:49
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Re: Coronavirus abroad

My (UK) parents have a dilemma. They have booked a dream holiday to Japan due to start in three weeks, to see the spring blossom etc etc.

They were happy to go ahead rather than lose all their money, unless the FCO banned travel (or they got ill) in which case the money would be refunded.

Until today, when the agent phoned to say they could postpone to next year and only lose 15% of the money.

They are not going to the northern parts, where the infection is worse, and most of the things they want to visit are outdoors and not closed in this fortnight closure (apart from the Hiroshima museum and national museums, and the hot baths). Anyway, they are going in three weeks so a week after they are due to reopen. They are traveling by train. In their late 60’s but healthy.

Last week my dad was sitting next to a guy who had just come back from Italy who fell ill the next day, they were really disappointed that it was just ‘flu as they wanted to get it over and done with. ‘Beat the rush’ as my dad said.

Anyway, they have to make a decision by Thursday on the rebook and loose a few grand or go ahead and risk it. Three weeks is a long time in a pandemic.
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Old 03.03.2020, 22:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Except that those 27 cases are the most severe. What if that’s just the tail end of the distribution and there are lots more cases that were never tested and less severe.
Is that your assumption about most severe or do you have a source?

33% is mathematically correct for Washington State's current figures but I would not extrapolate it wider.
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Old 03.03.2020, 23:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Except that those 27 cases are the most severe. What if that’s just the tail end of the distribution and there are lots more cases that were never tested and less severe.
The US gov announced that up to a million people will be tested by the end of this week, so expect numbers to increase dramatically. As for those dead in Washington State, 8 of the 9 are at a nursing home, one of the worst places it could strike.
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  #1509  
Old 03.03.2020, 23:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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The US gov announced that up to a million people will be tested by the end of this week, so expect numbers to increase dramatically. As for those dead in Washington State, 8 of the 9 are at retirement home, one of the worst places it could strike.
Depends, were they staff or residents
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Old 03.03.2020, 23:30
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Re: Coronavirus abroad

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My (UK) parents have a dilemma. They have booked a dream holiday to Japan due to start in three weeks, to see the spring blossom etc etc. They were happy to go ahead rather than lose all their money, unless the FCO banned travel (or they got ill) in which case the money would be refunded. Until today, when the agent phoned to say they could postpone to next year and only lose 15% of the money. They are not going to the northern parts, where the infection is worse, and most of the things they want to visit are outdoors and not closed in this fortnight closure (apart from the Hiroshima museum and national museums, and the hot baths). Anyway, they are going in three weeks so a week after they are due to reopen. They are traveling by train. In their late 60’s but healthy. Last week my dad was sitting next to a guy who had just come back from Italy who fell ill the next day, they were really disappointed that it was just ‘flu as they wanted to get it over and done with. ‘Beat the rush’ as my dad said. Anyway, they have to make a decision by Thursday on the rebook and loose a few grand or go ahead and risk it. Three weeks is a long time in a pandemic.









many sakura festivals are cancelled due to CoV , you should check first before making any final decisions.


https://japantoday.com/category/nati...rus-fears-grow
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  #1511  
Old 03.03.2020, 23:39
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Re: Coronavirus abroad

further advice for japan : https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/japan


https://www.facebook.com/ukinjapan
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  #1512  
Old 04.03.2020, 01:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is that your assumption about most severe or do you have a source?

33% is mathematically correct for Washington State's current figures but I would not extrapolate it wider.
Just an assumption based on the fact that the virus seems to have been circulating in the state for about 6 weeks, and the small number of actual tests performed - makes sense that there were more non lethal outcomes out there.
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  #1513  
Old 04.03.2020, 07:30
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Re: Coronavirus

First case in St Gallen, a woman who went to Milan "recently". She's at the Cantonal hospital.

Switzerland is now at 58 cases, and the press is reporting people are stealing masks in hospitals, just like in France. I was hoping people would behave better than that, but there you go. How much longer till the Federal Council declares we're in epidemic situation? This virus spreads so quickly...
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  #1514  
Old 04.03.2020, 07:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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First case in St Gallen, a woman who went to Milan "recently". She's at the Cantonal hospital.

Switzerland is now at 58 cases, and the press is reporting people are stealing masks in hospitals, just like in France. I was hoping people would behave better than that, but there you go. How much longer till the Federal Council declares we're in epidemic situation? This virus spreads so quickly...
They would kill for masks if they had to. You obviously don't know people
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  #1515  
Old 04.03.2020, 08:09
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Re: Coronavirus abroad

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My (UK) parents have a dilemma. They have booked a dream holiday to Japan due to start in three weeks, to see the spring blossom etc etc.

They were happy to go ahead rather than lose all their money, unless the FCO banned travel (or they got ill) in which case the money would be refunded.

Until today, when the agent phoned to say they could postpone to next year and only lose 15% of the money.

They are not going to the northern parts, where the infection is worse, and most of the things they want to visit are outdoors and not closed in this fortnight closure (apart from the Hiroshima museum and national museums, and the hot baths). Anyway, they are going in three weeks so a week after they are due to reopen. They are traveling by train. In their late 60’s but healthy.

Last week my dad was sitting next to a guy who had just come back from Italy who fell ill the next day, they were really disappointed that it was just ‘flu as they wanted to get it over and done with. ‘Beat the rush’ as my dad said.

Anyway, they have to make a decision by Thursday on the rebook and loose a few grand or go ahead and risk it. Three weeks is a long time in a pandemic.
I would just go. The japanese wear masks anyway and everything is super clean. I would maybe go first class on the train because there are not many people to begin with. Buy them hand sanitiser and sent them on their way. Virus or not, i think its going to be busy anyway due to the season

But then of course im a tiiiiiny bit prejudiced becaused ive been to Japan during sakura season and its amazing
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Old 04.03.2020, 08:20
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Re: Coronavirus abroad

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many sakura festivals are cancelled due to CoV , you should check first before making any final decisions.


https://japantoday.com/category/nati...rus-fears-grow
Thank you. I think they are more interested in the trees than the festivals, so it is not such a big deal to them. They also said that they heard it is going to be really quiet this year as normally half the tourists are Chinese, so they think it’s going to be more peaceful.

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I would just go. The japanese wear masks anyway and everything is super clean. I would maybe go first class on the train because there are not many people to begin with. Buy them hand sanitiser and sent them on their way. Virus or not, i think its going to be busy anyway due to the season

But then of course im a tiiiiiny bit prejudiced becaused ive been to Japan during sakura season and its amazing
Thanks. They have hand gel and masks (hand gel was on 3 for 2 at boots a couple of weeks ago, so they have three). And, because my dad had a knee replacement in November, the agent had already upgraded them to first class on the trains in December

I think they should go, like you say, the Japanese are a lot cleaner than us Europeans. They are not so much worried about that.

They see catching the virus as inevitable anyway, (hence the disappointment when the guy my dad sat next to only had ‘flu), but are worried about being sick abroad where they don’t know the language or health system.

At the moment I think they are leaning towards going, they started booking the holiday over a year ago, and there is no way of knowing if there will be problems next year too....


But whatever I advise could be wrong, either I deny them their dream holiday for no reason, or I send them away to get sick.....

Last edited by MsWorWoo; 04.03.2020 at 08:38.
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  #1517  
Old 04.03.2020, 08:40
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Re: Coronavirus abroad

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My (UK) parents have a dilemma. They have booked a dream holiday to Japan due to start in three weeks, to see the spring blossom etc etc.



They are not going to the northern parts, where the infection is worse, and most of the things they want to visit are outdoors and not closed in this fortnight closure (apart from the Hiroshima museum and national museums, and the hot baths). Anyway, they are going in three weeks so a week after they are due to reopen. They are traveling by train. In their late 60’s but healthy.

Last week my dad was sitting next to a guy who had just come back from Italy who fell ill the next day, they were really disappointed that it was just ‘flu as they wanted to get it over and done with. ‘Beat the rush’ as my dad said.
Ultimately it's their choice but they are in the higher risk group of having serious or fatal complications being over sixty.

I'm sure you realise, even if your parents don't, that it really isn't "just flu" - especially for people of their more advanced years with the fatality rate being much, much higher.

Having said that, my parents would have probably gone on the trip.
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Old 04.03.2020, 08:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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First case in St Gallen, a woman who went to Milan "recently". She's at the Cantonal hospital.

Switzerland is now at 58 cases, and the press is reporting people are stealing masks in hospitals, just like in France. I was hoping people would behave better than that, but there you go. How much longer till the Federal Council declares we're in epidemic situation? This virus spreads so quickly...
People + fear = social disorder, you should know that by now. You can take the calmest people, put them in a situation of unusual stress and pressure such as an invisible yet tangible threat of pandemics, and they will do crazy things.

God forbid the world ever goes through a truly deadly pandemic situation that affects people of all ages indiscriminately, because then after time you will basically be sitting at home with a shotgun waiting for the next looting attempt.
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Old 04.03.2020, 09:02
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Re: Coronavirus abroad

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Thank you. I think they are more interested in the trees than the festivals, so it is not such a big deal to them. They also said that they heard it is going to be really quiet this year as normally half the tourists are Chinese, so they think it’s going to be more peaceful.



Thanks. They have hand gel and masks (hand gel was on 3 for 2 at boots a couple of weeks ago, so they have three). And, because my dad had a knee replacement in November, the agent had already upgraded them to first class on the trains in December

I think they should go, like you say, the Japanese are a lot cleaner than us Europeans. They are not so much worried about that.

They see catching the virus as inevitable anyway, (hence the disappointment when the guy my dad sat next to only had ‘flu), but are worried about being sick abroad where they don’t know the language or health system.

At the moment I think they are leaning towards going, they started booking the holiday over a year ago, and there is no way of knowing if there will be problems next year too....


But whatever I advise could be wrong, either I deny them their dream holiday for no reason, or I send them away to get sick.....
Japan is on level 2 alert (not 3 luckily), which means the virus is already spreading - them being more hygienic than us is not really helping under these circumstances.

As always, people belonging in the older groups or/and having chronic problems should avoid non-essential travelling.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices...onavirus-japan

Ultimately it is their decision, if they feel like they should go, why not...you can tell them your opinion but it's their call.
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  #1520  
Old 04.03.2020, 09:16
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Re: Coronavirus abroad

Personally I would lean towards going if I were them.
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