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  #21  
Old 13.03.2011, 19:37
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

If you did not know already:
This article in NZZ recently:
http://www.nzz.ch/finanzen/nachricht...1.9841323.html

describes the disaster that is going to hit the US at some point in the not-too-distant future.
Even Bill Gates noticed:
http://www.gatesfoundation.org/found...1-line-up.aspx
Given that, the USD may actually be over-valued.
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  #22  
Old 13.03.2011, 20:21
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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what does a Starbucks coffee cost


about $2.5 in the US and around $4.80 in CH.
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  #23  
Old 13.03.2011, 20:34
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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From my prospective it is about USD loosing its value (as well as GBP and EUR). IF you look at most of the growing economies (BRIC), Precious Metals (Gold, Silver etc) and commodities they are almost same in CHF but now much higher in USD.

So it is easy for one to buy the USD denominated goods but the people who earn USD will find it difficult the purchase same thing (Eg. Oil, Gold or other commodities) as they need more dollars now. It in a way is effect of USD devaluing its currency to fund the programs like War and protecting Bankers interest by printing money. Well this is just a small gist but the whole thing is much more complicated and might ignite a huge debate.
In times of a slow global economy, capital flows in two safe directions -mainly:
Japan & Switzerland whose currencies have gained immensely against the greenback and the EUR. When investors and central bankers come back to their senses, the respective currencies will be stripped of their previous gains.

2nd scenario: US economy is doing bad and so is the EU -except for DE. The US is heavily indebted yet 10 yr t-bills are still somewhat low trading at $3,40.
For doomsdayers, i say yes, the US is prone to a massive financial crisis and even going bankrupt.
You're a fool if you think that the US can go bankrupt whilst EU-CH all live happily ever after with no consequences whatsoever. A crisis in the US will trigger a global depression. US-EU banks are interconnected and all of us are somewhat tied to the mighty $.

What I think? all these indebted countries need to overhaul their systems and live within their means and shift towards industrialization again -with more realistic salaries. Services-based economies can sustain themselves forever and ever...they will collapse at some point. The question is when.
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  #24  
Old 13.03.2011, 20:45
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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I'm curious if anyone out there thinks that the USD and other currencies will sustain this weakness against the Franc.
No. Swiss companies/banks earn lots of their income abroad. A high franc batters their profits and thus they will attempt to pressure the SNB to devalue as well.
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  #25  
Old 13.03.2011, 21:20
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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No. Swiss companies/banks earn lots of their income abroad. A high franc batters their profits and thus they will attempt to pressure the SNB to devalue as well.
The SNB doesn't have tools to keep its currency down. They tried to sustain the euro last year and they booked a loss of CHF26billion!

The local economy is strong and exports have been able to grow regardless the loss of competitiveness vis à vis major currencies. More, the swiss franc is correlated to gold that is staying strong.

Only if the Federal Reserve will start raising rates (second half of the year? Maybe later) the US dollar has a chance to rebound a bit. Even in that case I think the trajectory won't be straight upward: in the long-term budget + current account deficits will be a drag anyway.

Instead of betting on a rise against the dollar I think it would be worth trying to anticipate a turning point against the euro. The PIIGS countries are not out of the woods yet but if Spain and Italy won't be become another Ireland we could see levels around 1,40.

Till then, let's enjoy the stong currency to travel abroad and spend less
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  #26  
Old 14.03.2011, 00:15
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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Here's a link to the most up to date Big Mac Index
http://www.oanda.com/currency/big-mac-index

We're no.3 behind our friends in the North

1. Norway USD7.38
2. Sweden USD6.95
3. CH USD6.50

Ukraine (USD1.80) is cheapest by the way, behind China (USD1.98) and Sri Lanka (USD1.89)
The comparison is incomplete in so much as the Big Mac is not available in India. Correct, no beef, so no Big Mac in the land of the holy cow...

However, if I remember correctly, the nearest equivalent (or rather, the most popular sandwich) was less than $1.50 last time I checked...
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  #27  
Old 14.03.2011, 18:11
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

Today USD is down again, even if risk is off the table today with commodities and stocks down in tandem...I wonder when somebody will step in and buy the currency...giving a chance to sell it higher
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  #28  
Old 12.04.2011, 14:21
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

Some interesting old articles I found about the Swiss franc

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...ss+franc&hl=en

(from 1941)

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...ss+franc&hl=en

(from 1978)

Look at the price of gold
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  #29  
Old 12.04.2011, 18:53
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

US$ is below 90 rappen; who wudda thunk it!!!
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  #30  
Old 12.04.2011, 21:55
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

The sorry demise of the dollar...

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=CHF&view=10Y
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  #31  
Old 12.04.2011, 22:02
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

Awesome stuff. Now if only the aussie dollar crashed. Unlikely to happen anytime soon i think...
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  #32  
Old 12.04.2011, 23:09
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

The real value of the US dollar is the paper it is printed on. If it wasn't for the fact that it is used as the global reserve currency it's value against the Sfr would be 10 rappen. If in the near future we do not see any serious steps by the US government to reduce deficits, put controls on the derivative markets, let banks fail as they should, raise interest rates and fire Bernanke as well as Obama then I am afraid pretty soon we will see 1US$ = 55 Rappen and the value of commodities skyrocketing in US$ terms. A good video to download and watch is "The inside job" Directed by Charles Ferguson. Starring Matt Damon, George W. Bush, Barney Frank. Takes a closer look at what brought about the financial meltdown.
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  #33  
Old 20.04.2011, 11:31
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

Oh dear I see trouble ahead and this backs up what I heard/have seen in books in many places.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business...l?cid=30012940

In 2008, the euro was a currency that was taken very seriously by oil-producing nations, sovereign funds and central banks. It was about to overtake the dollar, something the US wanted to prevent at all costs. The world needs a safe place to offload its excess assets and everything is done to make sure Europe isn’t that place. It was precisely at that moment that speculators began attacking the sovereign debt of some European nations.
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  #34  
Old 20.04.2011, 12:51
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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Oh dear I see trouble ahead and this backs up what I heard/have seen in books in many places.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business...l?cid=30012940

In 2008, the euro was a currency that was taken very seriously by oil-producing nations, sovereign funds and central banks. It was about to overtake the dollar, something the US wanted to prevent at all costs. The world needs a safe place to offload its excess assets and everything is done to make sure Europe isn’t that place. It was precisely at that moment that speculators began attacking the sovereign debt of some European nations.
Interesting article
True that Europe is the largest economy in the world according to the IMF but we should not forget that almost half the members are not in the euro; granted they are mostly the smaller nations in GDP terms. & some of those members who are in the euro are having problems.

About "speculators began attacking the sovereign debt of some European nations" - they could only do that because those nations had weak economies.
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  #35  
Old 20.04.2011, 12:54
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

Gets better, these guys are not normally off the money.

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-54-is-...use_a6340.html
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  #36  
Old 20.04.2011, 12:55
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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Interesting article
True that Europe is the largest economy in the world according to the IMF but we should not forget that almost half the members are not in the euro; granted they are mostly the smaller nations in GDP terms. & some of those members who are in the euro are having problems.

About "speculators began attacking the sovereign debt of some European nations" - they could only do that because those nations had weak economies.
Aye so does the US it needs to wake up and smell the coffee.
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  #37  
Old 28.04.2011, 14:56
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

I have USD/CHF dilemma and hope someone can help as I'm no finance guy.

My savings are in USD and I'm currently living off some of that here so I change my USD to CHF as I need it. I'm losing out bigtime the last few months.

What would you do in my shoes? Is there anything else to do but to wait it out?
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  #38  
Old 28.04.2011, 15:24
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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The real value of the US dollar is the paper it is printed on. If it wasn't for the fact that it is used as the global reserve currency it's value against the Sfr would be 10 rappen. If in the near future we do not see any serious steps by the US government to reduce deficits, put controls on the derivative markets, let banks fail as they should, raise interest rates and fire Bernanke as well as Obama then I am afraid pretty soon we will see 1US$ = 55 Rappen and the value of commodities skyrocketing in US$ terms. A good video to download and watch is "The inside job" Directed by Charles Ferguson. Starring Matt Damon, George W. Bush, Barney Frank. Takes a closer look at what brought about the financial meltdown.
this is a bunch of crap. the real value of the dollar is based on what goods and services it can be exchanged for. I assure you that even if the world stopped using USD as the global currency, there is enough demand for goods and services which can be paid for in USD to prevent this sort of catastrophic collapse.
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  #39  
Old 28.04.2011, 16:36
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

10-year history of the Dollar vs. the Swiss Franc:
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franc-dollar-parity-chf-usd-dollar_demise.jpg  
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  #40  
Old 28.04.2011, 17:23
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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this is a bunch of crap. the real value of the dollar is based on what goods and services it can be exchanged for. I assure you that even if the world stopped using USD as the global currency, there is enough demand for goods and services which can be paid for in USD to prevent this sort of catastrophic collapse.
We shall see...
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