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  #41  
Old 28.04.2011, 19:00
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

Not sure if you can read this without having subscribed - link

For non subscribers some soundbites are

- S&P have stated that there is a 1 in 3 chance of the USD being downgraded within the next 2 years
- Deutsche Bank analysts have concerns about the next 18 months for the USD
- CHF is being bouyed by expectation of a rate increase by the Swiss central bank
- Low interest rate on USD makes it attractive to carry trades*
- Expectation is that EUR/USD is inflated and EUR will probably fall against the dollar
- Long term USD will likely continue to drop based on increased Chinese market influences

* e.g., you want to trade your currency against something else, low interest rates on the dollar means it makes sense to use the dollar for this, end result of this is lots of short positions in USD which essentially means a lot of people gambling that USD will continue to drop.
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Last edited by terryhall; 28.04.2011 at 19:01. Reason: carry trade info
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  #42  
Old 02.05.2011, 21:20
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

Spot on TerryHall. I'm shored up to protect myself from a major depreciation. The short to medium term implications of such an event, the time it will take for the rest of the world to come to terms with "life without the dollar", will be unpleasant for everyone.
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  #43  
Old 02.05.2011, 21:54
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

We're some five months later than the original post and the dollar is at .86chf...
For people having or living from dollar earnings or savings here in Switzerland, it must be rather harsh days.
Does anyone have any opinions on the further evolution?
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  #44  
Old 02.05.2011, 22:01
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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I have USD/CHF dilemma and hope someone can help as I'm no finance guy.

My savings are in USD and I'm currently living off some of that here so I change my USD to CHF as I need it. I'm losing out bigtime the last few months.

What would you do in my shoes? Is there anything else to do but to wait it out?
Hi repeater.

I am not a financial advisor, and please consider all opinions, since I could very well be wrong, but I had major interests in the USD and faced similar questions. After reading everything I could to better understand the US economy, the dollar and my position relative to it, I decided to sell my property and dollars. This came from many conclusions:

1. US debt including unfunded liabilities is over 50 trillion dollars.
2. I do not believe US politicians or the people have the stomach for the kind of cuts necessary to bring down this debt and therefore to increase savings and in turn boost production and return the US to health- I think it will need a crisis for this action.
3. In the mean time, the only two practical options the US has are inflation or a structured default.
4. Apparently, the US has chosen inflation (QE 1 and 2 (3???), monetising debt (bond/treasury sales) aka- money printing!), hoping to erode the value of the dollar and thus inflate away its debts while incorrectly pinning it's hopes on consumer spending to grow its way out.
5. Consumer spending emphatically does not grow an economy, cannot measure wealth and is not a measure of growth. Unfortunately, the US economy (and many others) has been based on this fallacy for years. Savings are an indication of wealth and production indicates growth. Consumption is an indication of...well, consumption. In short, the strength of the US economy is a misnomer- in terms of its savings and production relative to debt it is desperately weak.

As a crude analogy- imagine the position of a wealthy, successful professional (the US). He is outwardly smart, healthy and everyone looks to him with envy and admiration. Seeing the wealth, the local bank, (the Chinese and others) is desperate to lend him money and as fortune would have it (for the bank), he is happy live it up. Even though he's wealthy, he spends and spends and spends, taking out more and more loans over the years- that represents consumer and public spending over time. Eventually, he finds himself so deep in debt, he can't even pay his overdraft which is the deficit. So he asks for more and more loans from the bank (QE1/QE2-bonds) to cover his overdraft spending. The bank (US creditors) have loaned unwisely and are now scared this is the only way to get any of their money back- to tide him over. At this point, our professional hasn't even considered how he will make the payment on his "recent buy now, pay later house furnishing" and that represents the many unfunded liabilities such as social security payments.

On top of everything, that rich living has left our professional in poor health. He smoked too much and drank too much (the move away from free markets and savings based investment and production) and while he has made some incrimental improvements to his skills, he is hasn't been able to match his capability to earn with his debt load. Rumours (market shorts) begin to circulate that our professional is not as wealthy as everyone thinks to which he replies "you guys are full of it- how could I possibly be poor- just look at my spending! Many who have always known our successful professional cannot imagine this man's terrible health and finances and his claim that his spending is a result of wealth is accepted. This represents the misguided conventional understanding of America's position.

Anyway, that's my take on it and to cut a long story short, I was and am sufficiently alarmed to significantly restructure my life and finances away from the dollar. How and when exactly a sharper devaluation will play out, I cannot conclude. I think the Chinese and others see themselves in a precarious position so that is delaying things, but there has to be a tipping point and who knows what that will be. Maybe it takes ten years, maybe three, maybe one ? One thing is clear to me though and that is dollar denominated assets are going to devalue in real terms. I should say that I have no more plans to live in the US and if I had it might have led me to actually invest carefully in property, but that is another matter.

Again, just for emphasis, this is just my opinion and and experience, so please look for others. May your choice be the best one.

Last edited by The Alpine; 02.05.2011 at 22:58.
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  #45  
Old 03.05.2011, 00:21
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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Hi repeater.
I should say that I have no more plans to live in the US and if I had it might have led me to actually invest carefully in property, but that is another matter.
Fertile land with enough precipitation (so no irrigation is necessary) might turn-out to be an investment even better than gold.
After all, you cannot eat gold.
The trick is
- to know when it will become really valuable
- to know what the climate is at that point of time at the place you want to invest in.

As oil becomes more and more expensive, so does "conventional" farming.
(Again, a point few politicians seem to care about, at least in public)

Already, investment-funds have started to buy-up huge properties in Eastern Germany, pushing aside traditional farmers in the process.
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  #46  
Old 03.05.2011, 00:48
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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Yep. The price of Starbucks here is absolutely astonishing. Just the thought of it makes me kinda mad
now that most cafes don't allow smoking, I see no reason to go to starbucks.
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  #47  
Old 03.05.2011, 07:27
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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We're some five months later than the original post and the dollar is at .86chf...
For people having or living from dollar earnings or savings here in Switzerland, it must be rather harsh days.
... and obviously same-same (as they say here) for those being paid in Dirhams and who will be relocating to CH in 2 months ...

The current FX rate is 1 local Camel against 1 Swiss Hamster
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  #48  
Old 03.05.2011, 10:18
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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Already, investment-funds have started to buy-up huge properties in Eastern Germany, pushing aside traditional farmers in the process.
Eastern Germany - or Europe Wind Farm!! A staggering number litter the East German countryside - km after km of them.

As for farmland - South American farm land is big business at the moment - huge farms and ranches changing hands.
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  #49  
Old 03.05.2011, 15:48
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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Hi repeater.

Anyway, that's my take on it and to cut a long story short, I was and am sufficiently alarmed to significantly restructure my life and finances away from the dollar. How and when exactly a sharper devaluation will play out, I cannot conclude. I think the Chinese and others see themselves in a precarious position so that is delaying things, but there has to be a tipping point and who knows what that will be. Maybe it takes ten years, maybe three, maybe one ? One thing is clear to me though and that is dollar denominated assets are going to devalue in real terms. I should say that I have no more plans to live in the US and if I had it might have led me to actually invest carefully in property, but that is another matter.

Again, just for emphasis, this is just my opinion and and experience, so please look for others. May your choice be the best one.
I am not sure what you are saying...are you saying get out of dollar equities like stocks, bonds, etc and put your money into real estate?
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Old 03.05.2011, 16:04
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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Eastern Germany - or Europe Wind Farm!! A staggering number litter the East German countryside - km after km of them.
I know.
But mainly for subsidies.

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As for farmland - South American farm land is big business at the moment - huge farms and ranches changing hands.
Once a "boom" hits the newspapers, you can be sure only suckers are still drawn in.
Probably a reason to sell gold and silver soon....
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  #51  
Old 03.05.2011, 19:03
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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I am not sure what you are saying...are you saying get out of dollar equities like stocks, bonds, etc and put your money into real estate?
I am saying, for my situation, I want to be isolated from the dollar in all it's form, including US real estate. So no, I definitely don't want exposure to any US investments.

What I was trying to point out is that if I had long term interests in the US (the desire to live or work there) and could tolerate the risk inherent in speculating, I might have considered actually investing in personal property or certain capital assets.

Again, to be absolutely clear, do not base decisions solely on my advice and consult a range of opinions to find what is right for you. Good Luck
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  #52  
Old 03.05.2011, 19:17
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

It is also worth considering the tax impact of owning US based stocks and assets.
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  #53  
Old 03.05.2011, 21:58
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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... might turn-out to be an investment even better than gold.
After all, you cannot eat gold.
The trick is
- to know when it will become really valuable
In other words, "buy low, sell high". Investing is a piece of piss...
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  #54  
Old 03.05.2011, 22:08
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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10-year history of the Dollar vs. the Swiss Franc:
Your graph of just 10 years don't show the full story, in 1994 the USD was around 1.12 it incresaed to 1.80 in late 2001 & has been fallen since.
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  #55  
Old 03.05.2011, 22:13
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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Fertile land with enough precipitation (so no irrigation is necessary) might turn-out to be an investment even better than gold.
After all, you cannot eat gold.
The trick is
- to know when it will become really valuable
- to know what the climate is at that point of time at the place you want to invest in.

As oil becomes more and more expensive, so does "conventional" farming.
(Again, a point few politicians seem to care about, at least in public)

Already, investment-funds have started to buy-up huge properties in Eastern Germany, pushing aside traditional farmers in the process.
About "After all, you cannot eat gold."
Now buying ony what is eatable is a really good definition of a short term investment.

About "investment-funds have started to buy-up huge properties..."
Over 100 years ago Mark Twain wrote "Buy land, they're not making it anymore"
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  #56  
Old 03.05.2011, 22:26
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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I am saying, for my situation, I want to be isolated from the dollar in all it's form, including US real estate. So no, I definitely don't want exposure to any US investments.

What I was trying to point out is that if I had long term interests in the US (the desire to live or work there) and could tolerate the risk inherent in speculating, I might have considered actually investing in personal property or certain capital assets.

Again, to be absolutely clear, do not base decisions solely on my advice and consult a range of opinions to find what is right for you. Good Luck
if you have US links, why don't you buy a large property with a non-recourse loan and rent it out.

sure the property may fall in value, but if the dollar tanks, then so will the mortgage. the worst that can happen is it all goes pear-shaped and you send some jingle-mail.
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  #57  
Old 03.05.2011, 22:35
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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if you have US links, why don't you buy a large property with a non-recourse loan and rent it out.

sure the property may fall in value, but if the dollar tanks, then so will the mortgage. the worst that can happen is it all goes pear-shaped and you send some jingle-mail.
The worst that can happen is your property is worth much less (in CHF) than you paid & your rental income also is worth much less (in CHF).

The end result, in this case, is that you have a tiny monthly income & if you want to sell & recover your original investment it is showing a loss in CHF.
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Old 03.05.2011, 22:38
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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Your graph of just 10 years don't show the full story, in 1994 the USD was around 1.12 it incresaed to 1.80 in late 2001 & has been fallen since.
Go back to 1970 and the USD was around 5 CHF.
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Old 03.05.2011, 23:51
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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About "After all, you cannot eat gold."
Now buying ony what is eatable is a really good definition of a short term investment.

About "investment-funds have started to buy-up huge properties..."
Over 100 years ago Mark Twain wrote "Buy land, they're not making it anymore"
True - and nowhere else is one more painfully aware of this than here in Switzerland.
The land in East Germany has been available for 20 years - but only recently, it started to get more valuable (instead of declining in value every year).
But nobody is going to build any more shopping malls or water-parks there.
(East Germany must have the highest density of water-parks per capita in the world....)
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Old 03.05.2011, 23:59
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Re: Franc dollar parity CHF=USD

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Hi repeater.

I am not a financial advisor, and please consider all opinions, since I could very well be wrong, but I had major interests in the USD and faced similar questions. After reading everything I could to better understand the US economy, the dollar and my position relative to it, I decided to sell my property and dollars. This came from many conclusions:

1. US debt including unfunded liabilities is over 50 trillion dollars.
2. I do not believe US politicians or the people have the stomach for the kind of cuts necessary to bring down this debt and therefore to increase savings and in turn boost production and return the US to health- I think it will need a crisis for this action.
3. In the mean time, the only two practical options the US has are inflation or a structured default.
4. Apparently, the US has chosen inflation (QE 1 and 2 (3???), monetising debt (bond/treasury sales) aka- money printing!), hoping to erode the value of the dollar and thus inflate away its debts while incorrectly pinning it's hopes on consumer spending to grow its way out.
5. Consumer spending emphatically does not grow an economy, cannot measure wealth and is not a measure of growth. Unfortunately, the US economy (and many others) has been based on this fallacy for years. Savings are an indication of wealth and production indicates growth. Consumption is an indication of...well, consumption. In short, the strength of the US economy is a misnomer- in terms of its savings and production relative to debt it is desperately weak.

As a crude analogy- imagine the position of a wealthy, successful professional (the US). He is outwardly smart, healthy and everyone looks to him with envy and admiration. Seeing the wealth, the local bank, (the Chinese and others) is desperate to lend him money and as fortune would have it (for the bank), he is happy live it up. Even though he's wealthy, he spends and spends and spends, taking out more and more loans over the years- that represents consumer and public spending over time. Eventually, he finds himself so deep in debt, he can't even pay his overdraft which is the deficit. So he asks for more and more loans from the bank (QE1/QE2-bonds) to cover his overdraft spending. The bank (US creditors) have loaned unwisely and are now scared this is the only way to get any of their money back- to tide him over. At this point, our professional hasn't even considered how he will make the payment on his "recent buy now, pay later house furnishing" and that represents the many unfunded liabilities such as social security payments.

On top of everything, that rich living has left our professional in poor health. He smoked too much and drank too much (the move away from free markets and savings based investment and production) and while he has made some incrimental improvements to his skills, he is hasn't been able to match his capability to earn with his debt load. Rumours (market shorts) begin to circulate that our professional is not as wealthy as everyone thinks to which he replies "you guys are full of it- how could I possibly be poor- just look at my spending! Many who have always known our successful professional cannot imagine this man's terrible health and finances and his claim that his spending is a result of wealth is accepted. This represents the misguided conventional understanding of America's position.

Anyway, that's my take on it and to cut a long story short, I was and am sufficiently alarmed to significantly restructure my life and finances away from the dollar. How and when exactly a sharper devaluation will play out, I cannot conclude. I think the Chinese and others see themselves in a precarious position so that is delaying things, but there has to be a tipping point and who knows what that will be. Maybe it takes ten years, maybe three, maybe one ? One thing is clear to me though and that is dollar denominated assets are going to devalue in real terms. I should say that I have no more plans to live in the US and if I had it might have led me to actually invest carefully in property, but that is another matter.

Again, just for emphasis, this is just my opinion and and experience, so please look for others. May your choice be the best one.
Is this a FOREX thread? Americans can take cuts, we aren't Greeks. We can take it down to the bone.
50 trillion, where does that number come from?
And finally, a weak US dollar is great for the US economy, manufacturing demands soar. Maybe not if you are trading dollars. But then again, one day some one will find out that Switzerland sold most of it's gold a while ago, and that this currency isn't a commodity based trade, and might look elsewhere; just my two cents...1.5 rappen.
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