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Old 23.09.2011, 10:28
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Re: USD back with vengence.. most of the asset classes tumbles

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Turns your eyes to China. The sleeping dragon has awakened.
People keep saying this, but the country has a population of around 1.4 billion and only a few (percentage wise) people in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are loaded with cash. The average wage is very low, productivity (per person) is very low, education is also low outside of the big cities.
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Old 23.09.2011, 10:33
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Re: USD back with vengence.. most of the asset classes tumbles

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People keep saying this, but the country has a population of around 1.4 billion and only a few (percentage wise) people in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are loaded with cash. The average wage is very low, productivity (per person) is very low, education is also low outside of the big cities.
Yes, but the key is the trend. Theirs is heading up, the wests is heading down.
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Old 23.09.2011, 10:40
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Re: USD back with vengence.. most of the asset classes tumbles

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Yes, but the key is the trend. Theirs is heading up, the wests is heading down.
Only if you assume that the total wealth of the world is constant, but it isn't. They can get richer without making us poorer. Certain sectors may lose out, yes, but if we cultivate and further develop our strengths, they will make up for the losses.

Remember that as China develops, workers will start demanding better conditions and higher salaries and so relativise their cost advantage. The extreme price difference is just a transitional thing.
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Old 23.09.2011, 10:41
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Re: USD back with vengence.. most of the asset classes tumbles

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Yes, but the key is the trend. Theirs is heading up, the wests is heading down.
Sure, but they also have countertrends... such as a HUGE problem looming related to aging population (thanks 1 child policy) and related welfare liabilities, increasing wage costs (reducing ability to build economy on export as opposed to consumption), etc.
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Old 23.09.2011, 11:10
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Re: USD back with vengence.. most of the asset classes tumbles

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Sure, but they also have countertrends... such as a HUGE problem looming related to aging population (thanks 1 child policy) and related welfare liabilities, increasing wage costs (reducing ability to build economy on export as opposed to consumption), etc.
Definately, China has many issues and they have lots of debt as well at the local level which will cause them a severe headache - even a possibility of a bust. Also they have way overdone it on the capacity side and have assisted in many malinvestments. I just think, they have a lot more opportunity to grow their economies than many western countries going forward, most of which are loaded with debt, have poor savings rates and/or discouraging savings and a society looking to government to assist in the future. These will be huge pressures not to mention also an aging population and a growing welfare state which now includes bailing out corporations, all that needs to be paid for. Even when i look at countries that may be stronger like Germany, well they are tied to the Eurozone, so they will be impacted by that. China will have many problems and one doesnt even know where to begin, but when I look at Europe.... The sovereign debt issue in Europe is a very big deal and the domino effect of that is spreading. Im not very positive on China, im just negative on Europe. I live here so i hope thats not going to be the case. Just my 2 cents though
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Old 23.09.2011, 11:35
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Re: USD back with vengence.. most of the asset classes tumbles

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Just my 2 cents though
Don't worry, your 2 euro cents will not cost much in future
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