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  #21  
Old 27.09.2011, 12:33
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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If the economy collapses totally, there will be no payroll. No one will work. So no police etc. All you need is a gun or decent knife (I may go for a crossbow, they're cool) and thick gloves for smashing through the glass at Coop or Migros (or Denner if it really comes to that).
I could pull out our collection of broadswords, but they are damned heavy and make a big mess when you decapitate someone.

Also, all that stuff will be gone in the first day. If you aren't really of the looting and pillaging sort, it might not be worth fighting through the mobs.

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Failing that, I will simply chase down and eat fat people. They can't run away. Then I will get fat, and someone will eat me. Thanks for playing!
Donner...kebab.

It is difficult not to laugh at what we hope is an absurd scenario but, I figure with a child around, it's not a difficult thing to stock a small amount of reserves just in case. The alternative is a bit too bleak to contemplate.
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  #22  
Old 27.09.2011, 12:41
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

No-one know's what is going to happen though.

Hold/move into cash? Could get a massive devaluation or be stolen by the government.

Change currencies? What if you bet on the loser?

Invest in stocks? Who's to say these companies will survive if they have no staff for 2 or 3 months, they'll all be off trying to feed their families.
Certainly oil seems a safe bet, and cigarettes in CH no doubt, but who could have predicted what happened to BP?

Gold? You can't eat it, and how much of this stuff actually physically exists?
If/when the sh1t hits the fan, can anyone imagine a country letting gold leave their shores? Or rolling up at the depository and asking for your 100oz, please?
Sounds to me like bricks and mortar, bought outright, something tangible that you can actually touch and provides shelter, would seem to be the safest survivalists bet.

And a cow or herd of Bernese Mountain Dogs to use as burgers.

Last edited by 17clarence; 27.09.2011 at 14:15. Reason: herd, not heard
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  #23  
Old 27.09.2011, 13:01
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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Sounds to me like bricks and mortar, bought outright, something tangible that you can actually touch and provides shelter, would seem to be the safest survivalists bet.

And a cow or heard of Bernese Mountain Dogs to use as burgers.
maybe a swiss farm on a hill. with a shotgun to deal with the zombies.

there's a quote on survival that goes something like: 3 hours without shelter, 3 days without water, 3 weeks without food.
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  #24  
Old 27.09.2011, 13:19
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

You guys think real estate (investment property in the USA is a good idea (specially student housing)

I have been looking into this for a while and have some possible funds coming up pretty soon.....
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  #25  
Old 27.09.2011, 13:27
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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Me, I could use to miss a month of meals if I had to, but when you have a young child, it's the kind of thing that gives you instant cold sweaty palms and a quickened pulse.
I am sure 17clarence would gladly take the little one off your hands
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  #26  
Old 27.09.2011, 13:35
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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You guys think real estate (investment property in the USA is a good idea (specially student housing)

I have been looking into this for a while and have some possible funds coming up pretty soon.....
I think folks on this thread are talking physical survival, not shrewed investment in some product. As in, your real estate in the US will be no use once you've starved to death.

Not sure though whether it will be back to the stone age (or to the Middle Ages) just yet.
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  #27  
Old 27.09.2011, 13:37
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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If the economy collapses totally, there will be no payroll. No one will work. So no police etc. All you need is a gun or decent knife (I may go for a crossbow, they're cool) and thick gloves for smashing through the glass at Coop or Migros (or Denner if it really comes to that).

Failing that, I will simply chase down and eat fat people. They can't run away. Then I will get fat, and someone will eat me. Thanks for playing!
Skinning fat people to get to the tasty muscle part is lot of hard work and you would be wasting valuable energy to get past all that blubber. Instead I would recommend getting a muscular fit guy from behind with your arrow and then use the fat person as fuel for cooking the muscular guy
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  #28  
Old 27.09.2011, 13:46
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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...Instead I would recommend getting a muscular fit guy from behind with your arrow ....
not a double entendre I hope?
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  #29  
Old 27.09.2011, 13:53
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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And a cow or heard of Bernese Mountain Dogs to use as burgers.
Now I've given it some thought, a heard of BMD's would take some feeding, and I may end up on their menu rather than the other way round.

So sticking to the cow, how best to kill it?
Laying into it with a claw hammer would probably be pretty tiring, for both parties.

And I saw on 'Me, Myself and Irene' they seem to be bullet proof.

Maybe a herd of guinea pigs then? A claw hammer would surely work?

Last edited by 17clarence; 27.09.2011 at 14:15. Reason: herd, not heard
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  #30  
Old 27.09.2011, 14:12
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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(1)The Euro wont be around after (2) Germany leaves the Euro.
Are these points conjecture or fact?
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  #31  
Old 27.09.2011, 14:18
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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If, as this guy suggests, the crisis is a trader's dream and Goldman and the other banks are so smart that they know what's round the corner, then I wait for Goldman's q3 results with eager anticipation. Their trading desks must have made a fortune. We'll see in mid october when they report. I'm not holding my breath.

If Goldman truly rule the world, and people "in the know" know this, then why have their shares dropped from $174 to $95 YTD. Why is it trading below tangible book value?

If nobody who actually invests money disagrees with this Alessio Rastani then why haven't financial markets priced in the armageddon scenario he's painting.
Well see in the financial world there is "sell side" and "buy side" and unfortunately GS still makes its money from advertising and selling rather than trading prop. I have yet to meet one prop trader at GS who agrees with anything Jim Oniel says. I guess I dont talk with the sell side guys?

But also the prop teams have "thematic rules" that they have to abide by. For example in Q4 of 2009 GS Prop in London was not allowed to be long the dollar until told other-wise. The partner who made that rule was canned last January. So is GS perfect? Nope. Do their prop guys make money? Yup.....

The stock price is linked to the short vol game, just like these fund of fund guys. They have to obey var models and base their strategies around a vol of 15 or so. Its just like CS here in Switzerland. They are very very very short vol. So when vol explodes they have a higher probability of blowing up. Makes sense. But most of the problems come from the sell side in terms of EPS etc.

Perhaps anyone worth of shit is what I meant. The only clients I have who are down this year are PE shops who cant sell the stuff they had on the chopping block. Most guys are up in my universe. But when I speak to the general market trader or fund manager who I happen to meet on the street or at conferences they are all down. From 1982 until 2001 it got too easy to make money. There are still allot of these guys around to this day. Thats what bull markets do.
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  #32  
Old 27.09.2011, 14:23
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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@Zuger You are right (same as what most of people saying) but just that drawing extreme examples in the video won't help proving the point.

May be some of us should meet up for beers and end up forming a fund ..
Thats right, the media isnt actually for research purposes (we dont have TV's at our offices), its for loud mouths who sell things and dont do their own research.

I know plenty of people who have funds for this. There are lots. But only 2 or 3 who will REEEAAALLLLYYYY make money for outside investors. I know a couple of family offices who have recently set up big desks for this (20% of NAV+). But the easiest for now is to just buy the USD, unless youre big enough to get your own tier 1 ISDA?
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  #33  
Old 27.09.2011, 14:26
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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deeper question:

why would you want to be sitting on currencies at all?

the markets are very low right now so put your money into stocks, forget about them and when you come back you may be in for a nice surprise.
we are all "sitting on currencies" whether we realize it or not .. if you have a home in the UK, you are invested in GBP. If you have US stocks, you are long the USD. if you have savings here, you are long CHF. there is no getting away from it..

You could try to put all your net worth into commodities, but short of actually hoarding hogs or oil, you would be investing in a (usually USD denominated) paper - which brings you back to square one.
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  #34  
Old 27.09.2011, 14:27
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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All it means is there a better value today at nearly 50% off. Market sentiment will change, however with all the money in the world you could not open another GS tomorrow, which is something you cant say about many businesses.
The loss of shareholder value has nothing to do with sentiment. It has to do with a change of circumstances driven by structural changes and drop off in demand for their investment services in capital markets

When they went cap in hand to the government in 2008 they had to become a full fledged bank to qualify for Fed help. That submitted them to a tougher regulatory environment and higher capital requirements. Pre 2008 GS made a ton of money prop trading and investing for their own account. With higher cost of capital, banks can't do that so easily now. Those capital intensive businesses aren't so profitable for the bottom line as they used to be because the world they operate in has changed for them.

Far from gearing up its risk trading as an all seeing, all knowing "trader" who revels in the turmoil of financial crises and laughs in the face of volatility, GS has slashed it's daily VaR. The arrogant boasts of Rastani just don't stand up. But as, I said we'll see next month when GS and others report q3.

Personally, I also think GS is the best of its peer group. Things will turn around eventually for them and other investment banks and the Volker rule will probably be diluted. That will all go in their favour. But Goldman is shadow of what it was. And things will never be same, even for the top of the heap.
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Old 27.09.2011, 14:32
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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Are these points conjecture or fact?
The Bundesbank is a client. No one there wants to be in this currency. They all say the same thing: German Marks were backed by the Bundesbank. The Euro is backed by Junk bonds.....

They have a point. Axel Weber was at my bosses house two weeks back talking with him and a couple of our clients. This guy says the end game is near. He mainly said that the new legal rules in Germany make it impossible for Merkel to sign anything before a 3 month period. Thats not fast enough. If people start giving the Germans are hard time? Well guess what they have stored away in a very large airline hanger in Bonn? Enough Dmarks to be circulated in about 6 days.

Have you ever gone to a nice restaurant to eat a dinner, and the table next to you orders all of the most expensive things? Then the waiter brings you their bill and asks you to pay for it? Of course not, that would make no sense. But thats what happens to Germany every week it seems. Why would they keep raising taxs to bail out other members meals?
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  #36  
Old 27.09.2011, 14:38
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

So for Average Joe, what to do?
Are we facing meltdown or not?
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  #37  
Old 27.09.2011, 14:55
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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The Bundesbank is a client. No one there wants to be in this currency. They all say the same thing: German Marks were backed by the Bundesbank. The Euro is backed by Junk bonds....
There are countries in the EU, e.g. Sweden and the UK, who kept their own currency so why is it such a bad thing if Germany dumps the Euro and what's preventing them from doing so? It seems the longer these resentments towards Greece and other countries are allowed to fester, the stronger the nationalism grows. Also, if/when the Euro really does collapse, what happens to the Schengen agreement? That surely could get messy, couldn't it?
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  #38  
Old 27.09.2011, 15:52
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

hoax interview?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Yes_Men
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  #39  
Old 27.09.2011, 18:26
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

BBC has confirmed it's not a hoax. Funny how we're so conditioned to the usual media stories that when someone tells it like it is, folks think it's a hoax....
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  #40  
Old 27.09.2011, 19:00
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Re: Global Economic Crisis : Is he telling the truth ?

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The Bundesbank is a client. No one there wants to be in this currency. They all say the same thing: German Marks were backed by the Bundesbank. The Euro is backed by Junk bonds.....

They have a point. Axel Weber was at my bosses house two weeks back talking with him and a couple of our clients. This guy says the end game is near. He mainly said that the new legal rules in Germany make it impossible for Merkel to sign anything before a 3 month period. Thats not fast enough. If people start giving the Germans are hard time? Well guess what they have stored away in a very large airline hanger in Bonn? Enough Dmarks to be circulated in about 6 days.

Have you ever gone to a nice restaurant to eat a dinner, and the table next to you orders all of the most expensive things? Then the waiter brings you their bill and asks you to pay for it? Of course not, that would make no sense. But thats what happens to Germany every week it seems. Why would they keep raising taxs to bail out other members meals?
Wow, Axel Weber was at your boss' place? You are well connected. Weber being the ex President of the Bundesbank should know a thing or two...!
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