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Old 30.09.2011, 16:16
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Buying Greece Bonds

I'm not a professional at this stuff, but many of you are...

Of course it's risky, but Greek bonds are trading at between 20-30% of their nominal value with very high yields. Is buying some not a good bet?

Logic is that if the EU bails Greece out again, then the value will recover (not to nominal values but to see a good short term gain). If it doesn't bail Greece out, all bets are off and the economies are all screwed anyway, so it doesn't matter if my small bet is lost because I'll probably be out of a job and eating my shoes.

What are the reasons for not taking a punt?
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Old 30.09.2011, 16:23
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Re: Buying Greece Bonds

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What are the reasons for not taking a punt?
erm, that they won't pay out any interest nor will you get the principal back?
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Old 30.09.2011, 16:26
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Re: Buying Greece Bonds

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erm, that they won't pay out any interest nor will you get the principal back?
No, I won't hold them to term, I mean that they are at 30% of face value now and I would expect/bet/hope/pray that when the next rescue package is announced that the price of the bonds will rise and sell them then...
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Old 30.09.2011, 16:28
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Re: Buying Greece Bonds

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No, I won't hold them to term, I mean that they are at 30% of face value now and I would expect/bet/hope/pray that when the next rescue package is announced that the price of the bonds will rise and sell them then...
oh, in that case, i can't think of anything that could possibly go wrong.
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Old 30.09.2011, 16:31
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Re: Buying Greece Bonds

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oh, in that case, i can't think of anything that could possibly go wrong.
I know.....but that's what I mean.....heads, I win....tails, its global economic meltdown, so the small lost bet isn't relevant in the scheme of the disaster than will ensue!
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Old 30.09.2011, 16:48
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Re: Buying Greece Bonds

With the 2 year bonds, minor holder have the right to object to any reconstruction, they MAY be paid out in full, in theory anyway.

This is from an ex Partner from GS, who was thinking of but has not as yet made a punt.
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Old 30.09.2011, 17:13
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Re: Buying Greece Bonds

it was indeed a very reasonable risk/reward ratio until yesterday when all Greek Bonds surged - on the back of optimism (delusion?) that Europe somehow had a solution for the whole mess...

I believe 2 year Greeks were yielding over 80% at one time.
right now, the 2 years are yielding 57%, so still not a bad gamble, if you are okay with losing the whole investment...

Last edited by dino; 30.09.2011 at 17:33.
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