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View Poll Results: How long does the euro have left?
Monday 4 3.85%
Before/near Xmas 12 11.54%
Mid-February 34 32.69%
It'll stay intact due to an overnight hallmark 54 51.92%
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  #1  
Old 09.12.2011, 11:19
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How long does the Euro have left?

Since it is nearly certain that the politicians in Brussels are doing nothing to solve this crisis and few believe the circus surrounding the summit, how long do you think it will last before things really get darwinian?

Monday?
Christmas?
Mid-February?
Or, do you think they'll patch things up overnight?
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  #2  
Old 09.12.2011, 11:20
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Since it is nearly certain that the politicians in Brussels are doing nothing to solve this crisis and few believe the circus surrounding the summit, how long do you think it will last before things really get darwinian?

Monday?
Christmas?
Mid-February?
Or, do you think they'll patch things up overnight?
Possibly Tuesday but don't quote me on that..

I wish that utopian brainfart would fall into pieces, so that they can start it up from scratch with one common language.
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Old 09.12.2011, 11:29
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I wish that utopian brainfart would fall into pieces, so that they can start it up from scratch with one common language.
Are you sure you like the idea of all Europeans speaking DEUTSCH?!?
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Old 09.12.2011, 11:31
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Are you sure you like the idea of all Europeans speaking DEUTSCH?!?
Nah, it should be English...well, North American that is.
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Old 09.12.2011, 11:41
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Nah, it should be English...well, North American that is.
OK, I'm fine with that...

As far as the poll is concerned, I miss the choice of early January.

I think that everything possible will be done to muddle through till after Christmas. Besides, I kinda like the idea of Angie announcing on her New Year's speech that Germany will go back to the Deutsche Mark from January 2nd.
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Old 09.12.2011, 11:47
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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OK, I'm fine with that...

As far as the poll is concerned, I miss the choice of early January.

I think that everything possible will be done to muddle through till after Christmas. Besides, I kinda like the idea of Angie announcing on her New Year's speech that Germany will go back to the Deutsche Mark from January 2nd.
Personally, I think it's coming Monday as I don't believe there's enough steam left in this train wreck to get it to the end of the year. Also, the media is claiming all 17 monetary states agree to the treaty change, but I'm reading in the Finnish news that Finland alone is refusing to agree. It makes me deeply mistrustful of the role of the media in bolstering confidence in a currency that is already doomed.

I chose mid-february since that's when a big chunk of bonds come up. Jan 2nd is close enough to xmas to count as that option.
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Old 09.12.2011, 11:49
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Besides, I kinda like the idea of Angie announcing on her New Year's speech that Germany will go back to the Deutsche Mark from January 2nd.
Does anyone know if the new deutsche marks they are printing are the same or interchangable with the old ones?

I've got a good stash of old ones that I never got the chance to exchange at the time, so in hindsight maybe it wasn't too bad being forgetful.
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Old 09.12.2011, 11:51
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

Time to buy shares of depressed printing press manufacturers. Remember, most countries in the Eurozone are not prepared to print money anymore.
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  #9  
Old 18.05.2012, 04:53
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Are you sure you like the idea of all Europeans speaking DEUTSCH?!?
I could get behind that if they could agree WHICH Deutsch Europeans should speak.
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Old 09.12.2011, 19:12
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Since it is nearly certain that the politicians in Brussels are doing nothing to solve this crisis and few believe the circus surrounding the summit, how long do you think it will last before things really get darwinian?

Monday?
Christmas?
Mid-February?
Or, do you think they'll patch things up overnight?
The Euro will outlive us all.

The crisis is at its core a political crisis, not an economic crisis. The Eurozone is a common currency region, not a monetary and fiscal union.
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  #11  
Old 09.12.2011, 20:50
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The Euro will outlive us all.

The crisis is at its core a political crisis, not an economic crisis. The Eurozone is a common currency region, not a monetary and fiscal union.
I know we live in Europe and all... but seriously dude... wherever you're hiding your reefer, it's not hidden well enough.
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  #12  
Old 10.12.2011, 10:09
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I know we live in Europe and all... but seriously dude... wherever you're hiding your reefer, it's not hidden well enough.
I am serious in what I am saying. Let me entertain you with an explanation since you are interested. Crisises (what the hell is the plural of crisis again?) that are essentially political, tend to get resolved, because, ehm... they can. The really problematic crisises are those that are economic at their core, eg. the housing bubble in the USA which involved crazy overleveraging by institutions and the public.

For a purely political crisis to evolve into an economic crisis and become sustainable (reinforcing its own momentum), the economic linkages must fire. The typical linkages are business confidence and consumer confidence. Confidence in the Euro as a currency, ironically, is not one of the linkages, as a weaker Euro is good for the Euroland economy, on balance.

At the moment their is a slight pullback in business and consumer confidence, granted, but in my opinion a good part of it is due to scaremongering by those in whose interests it is to do so, and the incessant media chatter. I don't see it sustained, as busineses and consumers are going to get weary of this and get on with their normal lives, such as building infrastructure and projects in the fast growing developing world, read China, India, Brazil and Africa.
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Old 10.12.2011, 11:00
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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I am serious in what I am saying. Let me entertain you with an explanation since you are interested. Crisises (what the hell is the plural of crisis again?) that are essentially political, tend to get resolved, because, ehm... they can. The really problematic crisises are those that are economic at their core, eg. the housing bubble in the USA which involved crazy overleveraging by institutions and the public.

For a purely political crisis to evolve into an economic crisis and become sustainable (reinforcing its own momentum), the economic linkages must fire. The typical linkages are business confidence and consumer confidence. Confidence in the Euro as a currency, ironically, is not one of the linkages, as a weaker Euro is good for the Euroland economy, on balance.

At the moment their is a slight pullback in business and consumer confidence, granted, but in my opinion a good part of it is due to scaremongering by those in whose interests it is to do so, and the incessant media chatter. I don't see it sustained, as busineses and consumers are going to get weary of this and get on with their normal lives, such as building infrastructure and projects in the fast growing developing world, read China, India, Brazil and Africa.
When you are up to your eyeballs in debt and digging further, it most certainly is an economic crisis. I dare you to take a look at most European nations and have a look how much of the GDP is created from government spending alone.

Last edited by Lex; 10.12.2011 at 11:23.
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Old 10.12.2011, 11:54
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

the problem i see with the EURO experiment is that it doesn't follow the standard historic narrative. I recall that from my international business theory units the model was bilateral trade -> unilateral trade -> trade zone -> economic zone (common currency etc) -> political union.

The euro being the bastard child of the last two steps. My knowledge of history made me question these assumed progress. you have complete political union and economic union in the same step. one requires the other!

Hi to all the citizens of modern confederated states! Part of the reason to confederate was to create economic union (Australia especially and the US).

The Euro hasn't done this at all! Too much economic sovereignty lies in with the member states. The old idea of Nation State resonate too strongly for it to work properly. In Aus i have little problem bailing out our fellow confederated states, we see it as necessary. I am more Australian than a New South Welshman. Within the EU Germans are more German than European etc. Here is the problem, this leads to too much sovereignty.

But to be fair it is quite a young system, it will evolve from this or collapse.
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Old 10.12.2011, 13:23
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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When you are up to your eyeballs in debt and digging further, it most certainly is an economic crisis. I dare you to take a look at most European nations and have a look how much of the GDP is created from government spending alone.

No, it's not. For 2011, Japan has a Gross Public Debt to GDP ratio of 205%, the Euro area 97% and the United States 95%. The average for all 34 OECD countries is 100%. So the Euro area is even below that. If the size of government debt alone constituted an economic crisis, Japan would not have been able to borrow money for the last 10 years.

It's all relative. Like they say in South Africa: "How fast must you be able to run to escape a lion?". Answer: "Faster than your buddy".
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Old 10.12.2011, 00:33
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The Euro will outlive us all.

The crisis is at its core a political crisis, not an economic crisis. The Eurozone is a common currency region, not a monetary and fiscal union.
Any more news from planet Dysfunction??
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Old 10.12.2011, 09:53
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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Any more news from planet Dysfunction??
Does that mean you are very confident in your opinion that the Euro is doomed?
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Old 10.12.2011, 14:00
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

The Euro as a currency will be with us long after Jan 1st. It is very expensive to change a currency and it takes a lot of time for each country to not only print and mint enough replacement currency and get it positioned to go into circulation but it also takes a lot of time to financially prepare for such a conversion, it just can't happen this quickly without causing financial meltdowns.

In my opinion the great majority of the countries using the Euro are in no position financially or politically to add the many millions it would cost to their existing debt to move off of the Euro. Not to mention the absolute trashing their individual bond ratings would take as most of them would be rated in the junk bond range. Their ability to raise capital would either be non-existent or would cost so much it would push some countries into bankruptcy and an economic depression.

Now the Eurozone as a political body?? That's an entirely different matter and I expect we'll start seeing a lot more push back from the attempted France/German so called "leadership", telling everyone else what they should do but doing next to nothing in reforming their own welfare states.

Individual federal tax rates in Germany for the so called "top earners" is at 42% and one party even wants to raise it to 49%, Then you start adding in all the rest...When I worked there last in early 2010, 53% of my gross was gone with all of the deductions, including pension and insurance.

The welfare systems have got to be reformed and they just don't have the political stomach/courage to face what has to be done. With so many other Eurozone countries in worse shape they can continue to deflect away the attention...but it will have to be dealt with sooner or later. I don't know any first hand details on the French systems so I won't comment on France, but the comments from the French nationals I speak to I heare similar views.

It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next few months, hopefully it won't also be depressing. Thankfully we're here and on the CHF.
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Old 10.12.2011, 14:35
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The Euro as a currency will be with us long after Jan 1st. It is very expensive to change a currency and it takes a lot of time for each country to not only print and mint enough replacement currency and get it positioned to go into circulation but it also takes a lot of time to financially prepare for such a conversion, it just can't happen this quickly without causing financial meltdowns.

In my opinion the great majority of the countries using the Euro are in no position financially or politically to add the many millions it would cost to their existing debt to move off of the Euro. Not to mention the absolute trashing their individual bond ratings would take as most of them would be rated in the junk bond range. Their ability to raise capital would either be non-existent or would cost so much it would push some countries into bankruptcy and an economic depression.

Now the Eurozone as a political body?? That's an entirely different matter and I expect we'll start seeing a lot more push back from the attempted France/German so called "leadership", telling everyone else what they should do but doing next to nothing in reforming their own welfare states.

Individual federal tax rates in Germany for the so called "top earners" is at 42% and one party even wants to raise it to 49%, Then you start adding in all the rest...When I worked there last in early 2010, 53% of my gross was gone with all of the deductions, including pension and insurance.

The welfare systems have got to be reformed and they just don't have the political stomach/courage to face what has to be done. With so many other Eurozone countries in worse shape they can continue to deflect away the attention...but it will have to be dealt with sooner or later. I don't know any first hand details on the French systems so I won't comment on France, but the comments from the French nationals I speak to I heare similar views.

It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next few months, hopefully it won't also be depressing. Thankfully we're here and on the CHF.

Agree. My sense is that new treaties for closer fiscal "union" and tighter economic "integration" is to some extent an exercise in giving the markets what they want to hear, or rather, what the politicians think the markets want to hear.

I don't think the Germans actually intend for this evolution to go the route of more fiscal and monetary centralization, with a bigger role for the ECB to play; but definitely more COMMON RULES for the Eurozone members to honour and a means to punish the members who break the rules. Germans like rules - and so do the Swiss for that matter. But they also like their freedom.
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Old 10.12.2011, 14:42
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Re: How long does the Euro have left?

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The Euro as a currency will be with us long after Jan 1st. It is very expensive to change a currency and it takes a lot of time for each country to not only print and mint enough replacement currency and get it positioned to go into circulation but it also takes a lot of time to financially prepare for such a conversion, it just can't happen this quickly without causing financial meltdowns.
The Germans, good planners as they are, already have a stock of DM just in case:

http://www.arabianmoney.net/us-dolla...of-euro-chaos/
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