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  #21  
Old 22.05.2012, 01:27
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

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some of that may be true, but from what I understand, people who get allocated in the IPO are not allowed to flip for some time - usually 3 to 6 months.

certainly the insiders, the early investors etc (other than those who sold in the IPO) are subject to a 'lock-up'.

and of course MS and the other underwriters - who had to stand in as buyers on day 1 to keep the price from falling below $38. how do you think they're making out eh??
Do some reading on it, it's the average investor that got screwed. Even still this stock doesn't run just for a week. This is normal for IPO's anyways. They build the hype, the sell the shares to the general public, people panic, or they over sell to the public, stocks dive to 50% of the IPO price(give or take), and like I said before. This stock will probably be back in the next 6 months to a year. It's not like the stock is de-listing. The price will come back.
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Old 22.05.2012, 10:06
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

it popped on the 2nd day, but maybe not in the way investors were hoping!
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  #23  
Old 22.05.2012, 11:20
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

This may be of your interest.
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  #24  
Old 22.05.2012, 11:54
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

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it popped on the 2nd day, but maybe not in the way investors were hoping!
Who in there right mind would buy a company with slowing growth for 100 times earnings when they can buy Apple for 14 times earnings whose growth has not slowed.
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Old 22.05.2012, 12:05
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

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Who in there right mind would buy a company with slowing growth for 100 times earnings
Someone who thinks the earnings would grow 3 fold maybe 5 fold over the next 5 years... With the 100 times PE multiple reducing every day, it won't be surprising if we have the multiple drop to 50 by the end of this year.

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when they can buy Apple for 14 times earnings whose growth has not slowed.
Not a big fan of Apple neither, they only need to miss an estimate once for the stock to tumble.

Both not for me thank you very much.
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Old 22.05.2012, 12:15
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

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Not a big fan of Apple neither, they only need to miss an estimate once for the stock to tumble.

Both not for me thank you very much.
At which point it's a hugely bigger bargain than today!
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  #27  
Old 22.05.2012, 12:18
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

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Someone who thinks the earnings would grow 3 fold maybe 5 fold over the next 5 years... With the 100 times PE multiple reducing every day, it won't be surprising if we have the multiple drop to 50 by the end of this year.
facebook had revenues of 3.7bn last year. let's say they have 1.5bn economically relevant users. that's only $2.47 per user over a year. i'm sure they can do better than that...
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  #28  
Old 22.05.2012, 12:20
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

Well on the positive side, if it doesn't meet its 'uber' growth expectations, hopefully we will start seeing a lot more realistic valuations in IPO's and a lot less hype. As the IPO has turned out so far, thats looking more likely anyway.
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  #29  
Old 22.05.2012, 12:47
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

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facebook had revenues of 3.7bn last year. let's say they have 1.5bn economically relevant users. that's only $2.47 per user over a year. i'm sure they can do better than that...
They have 901 million active users according to wiki and their net profit was an abismal 1 point something billion (considering the share price), either way it seems that their next problem is going to be monetising from their mobile user base, the stats are not clear but there seems to be shift towards using mobile apps and with advertising space so small and Sugarmountain's attitude that FB is about connecting the world and not about making money, it's no wonder everyone is a bit apprehensive to put it mildly.
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  #30  
Old 22.05.2012, 12:56
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

I really can't see where facebook go from here, the only way is down imho (in terms of user base) just look at some of the 'kings' of the web in the recent past, and where are they now?? myspace, aol, friends reunited etc

the facebook 'product' is pretty terrible, there mobile apps are frankly a joke (and unreliable as hell), they have been coasting for a while, totally ignoring there userbase and just pushing through changes regardless (timeline anyone!!)

unless they get a few more products (and not buggy to hell rubbish products) then I see them going the same way as myspace etc

but at least he made a few billion out of it from city suckers
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  #31  
Old 22.05.2012, 13:03
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

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They have 901 million active users according to wiki and their net profit was an abismal 1 point something billion (considering the share price), either way it seems that their next problem is going to be monetising from their mobile user base, the stats are not clear but there seems to be shift towards using mobile apps and with advertising space so small and Sugarmountain's attitude that FB is about connecting the world and not about making money, it's no wonder everyone is a bit apprehensive to put it mildly.
Yeah didn't they come out like a week or two ago saying that mobile growth was a concern and to be challenging. I heard analysts say yesterday(of which strangely I didn't hear from the them in all the hype leading up to this) that it FB made no money and found it very difficult to make money from mobile. While FB said mobile was the future. To me this particular public offering seems to be a bit of a hustle.
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  #32  
Old 22.05.2012, 13:08
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

FB can easily make money. jeez, you could even put me in charge and i'd manage to quadruple their earnings without breaking a sweat.
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  #33  
Old 22.05.2012, 13:17
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

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I really can't see where facebook go from here, the only way is down imho (in terms of user base) just look at some of the 'kings' of the web in the recent past, and where are they now?? myspace, aol, friends reunited etc

the facebook 'product' is pretty terrible, there mobile apps are frankly a joke (and unreliable as hell), they have been coasting for a while, totally ignoring there userbase and just pushing through changes regardless (timeline anyone!!)

unless they get a few more products (and not buggy to hell rubbish products) then I see them going the same way as myspace etc

but at least he made a few billion out of it from city suckers
A friend of mine asked me a few weeks ago if they should buy into the Facebook IPO, and this would have been the first time they ever invested in the stock market. And my answer was fundamental...do you see yourself using FB that much in 5 years from now? I mean I remember 2 to 3 years ago everyone I knew was rushing to sign up for a FB account, a friend took the initiative to sign mine up for me. And it seemed all of the sudden about a year and half ago everyone was using it, and sending me texts, etc. Now it's a few people.

There are other social networking sites, and I think these things are predominantly used by a younger demographic. One teenage told me about a year and a half ago, "FB was kool, but as soon as your Grandmother is sending you a friend request, it's not the same anymore". I don't know if that is exactly true, but I see how this is going.

2 years ago people were talking about everything, now it's the daily "my baby put his leg in my butt, my baby, made a sound, my baby ate ice cream", or "if you don't re-post this to everyone you know, you aren't really my friend"-from some one I haven't talked to since the 9th grade, and so on.

So after that rant, it's just like you just said, MySpace, and a few others were thee sites you had to be subscribed to(I wasn't btw), now, while they are still being used, they aren't sites everyone is on anymore.

And on top of that, a lot of people have always been annoyed with FB and privacy related issues, and as soon as FB gets more aggressive with marketing I am sure there will be more privacy related matters that will get people to un subscribe.

If FB can think of something smart to get over the mobile issue, it can have a future. But at an introductory price of 38, with atleast 2.8 billion shares coming into float over the next year, it seems more like a money grab then anything.
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  #34  
Old 22.05.2012, 13:18
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

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FB can easily make money. jeez, you could even put me in charge and i'd manage to quadruple their earnings without breaking a sweat.
If you think you can do that, care to give me some consulting tips about business?
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  #35  
Old 22.05.2012, 14:04
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

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facebook had revenues of 3.7bn last year. let's say they have 1.5bn economically relevant users. that's only $2.47 per user over a year. i'm sure they can do better than that...
1.5Bn????

FB itself claims 900 Million users.. a very large fraction of which are in India, Indonesia, Philippines, Brazil etc - and do not even have a credit card - and hence no means or motivation to buy anything online.

I have never seen a FB ad, much less clicked on one. As advertisers slowly face up to the futility of online ads, and users become more aware of the lack of privacy online, even this lowly $2/yr/user will become harder to earn in the future...
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  #36  
Old 22.05.2012, 14:10
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

fwiw, amazon has a p/e ratio of around 180...
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  #37  
Old 22.05.2012, 15:26
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

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I have never seen a FB ad, much less clicked on one. As advertisers slowly face up to the futility of online ads, and users become more aware of the lack of privacy online, even this lowly $2/yr/user will become harder to earn in the future...
the ads are down the right side of every FB page.

Pay per click advertising as pioneered by google, is probably the best form of advertising ever invented. In short you only get targeted (interested) clickers (those not interested don't click) and you only pay when they do click. Both FB & google allow total local advertising. You can advertise on FB just for St Gallen if you want...
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  #38  
Old 22.05.2012, 15:33
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

This thing is set for another dive today... -3.6% in the pre-open!

What a disastreous IPO!
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  #39  
Old 22.05.2012, 15:37
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

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This thing is set for another dive today... -3.6% in the pre-open!

What a disastreous IPO!
not for FB! it seems they managed to extract maximum value from the sucke new investors
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  #40  
Old 22.05.2012, 16:09
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Re: Facebook.. IPO

NASDAQ tries to make traders "whole" again....
http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/05/nas...ecuted-trades/
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