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Old 03.07.2012, 20:14
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US exchange rate

I've been waiting since March to transfer my money it was almost .75 to 1chf and now it's almost 99! Ok 95. How long will I have to wait for a dip? Any savvy financiers know?
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  #2  
Old 03.07.2012, 21:47
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Re: US exchange rate

Interesting question, the future is uncertain, and it applies to FX rates.
You may have noted that the CHF is pegged to the EUR. So you can focus on predicting the more actively tracked EUR to USD rate. Good luck !
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Old 03.07.2012, 22:02
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Re: US exchange rate

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Interesting question, the future is uncertain, and it applies to FX rates.
You may have noted that the CHF is pegged to the EUR. So you can focus on predicting the more actively tracked EUR to USD rate. Good luck !
I would go long on the CHF, very very long.

The Swiss-Euro peg will ultimately fail (all you need is a catalyst, such as a Grexit) and the US public debt situation will only serve to increase the value of the CHF versus both currencies.
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Old 04.07.2012, 00:41
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Re: US exchange rate

My friend, you should get long the USD and stay long the USD.

The SNB wants to peg the CHF to the Euro. But they actually just want to peg the CHF to the Germans. So if the Germans leave the Euro and go back to the Dmark the CHF will then be pegged to the Dmark. That will be the only scenario where you should get long the CHF vs. the USD.

If the CHF stays linked to the Euro it will likely sink to 1.15..... You see, its pegged to the Euro. And once the Euro breaks 1.20 every trader on the planet will line up to destroy the Euro. The Euro will take the CHF with it until CS or UBS finally declares bankruptcy.....


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Old 04.07.2012, 00:43
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Re: US exchange rate

Errrrrr, English Forum?!?!?!
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Old 04.07.2012, 11:21
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Re: US exchange rate

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Errrrrr, English Forum?!?!?!
They do speak a form of English in the USA.
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Old 04.07.2012, 11:37
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Re: US exchange rate

If we could predict the future currency exchange rates with any accuracy we'd be doing that as a daytime job wouldn't we?

All I know is that the ZKB's predictions have pretty much been spot on, for being completely unreliable and worthless!
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Old 04.07.2012, 11:40
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Re: US exchange rate

We speak AMERICAN!

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They do speak a form of English in the USA.
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Old 04.07.2012, 11:44
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If we could predict the future currency exchange rates with any accuracy we'd be doing that as a daytime job wouldn't we?

All I know is that the ZKB's predictions have pretty much been spot on, for being completely unreliable and worthless!
The majority of sensible shard opinions will always loose you money, following the market will costs money, however none of your friends will laugh at you as they are doing the same!
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Old 04.07.2012, 12:14
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Re: US exchange rate

us-exchange-rate-usd.jpg

The USD/CHF goes in a pretty steady direction. The record low was before the EUR/CHF and I wouldn't count on seeing this happen again anytime soon.
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Old 04.07.2012, 17:47
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Re: US exchange rate

Thank you, I am just looking for the month to move, where can I find a bigger version of your chart or the "zkb" info? Thanks all! I thought this forum was for everyone and anyone.
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Old 04.07.2012, 17:53
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Re: US exchange rate

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Thank you, I am just looking for the month to move, where can I find a bigger version of your chart or the "zkb" info?
xe.com
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Old 04.07.2012, 17:55
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Re: US exchange rate

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We speak AMERICAN!
To my wife, they even speak 'Americano' in the UK!

Tom
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Old 04.07.2012, 18:25
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Re: US exchange rate

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We speak AMERICAN!
I don't think the complaint is American v English. I think the complaint is that for us 10 people in Switzerland who aren't in finance, we have no idea what you guys are saying....
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Old 04.07.2012, 18:38
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Re: US exchange rate

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I thought this forum was for everyone and anyone.
Quite right too.

I was merely showing my own inability to understand what the heck everyone was going on about as I haven't really 'gone long' on much myself.
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Old 04.07.2012, 18:53
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Re: US exchange rate

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Thanks all! I thought this forum was for everyone and anyone.
Zuriyogini, now that Homer and others have spelled out the meaning of the post that you groaned above, this would be a good moment to remove the groan you gave Homer. That post wasn't directed at you or anyone else, specifically -- it was a wry comment on the unintelligibility of finance-speak.

Just a suggestion. But it would be sporting of you to remove the groan.
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Old 04.07.2012, 19:01
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Re: US exchange rate

The CHF is not, and was never, pegged to anything. Including the EUR now, or the DEM in the past.

Pegging means that the rate is always exactly one value, for example 1 USD = 3,6725 >>UAE Dirham<< (always and exactly the same, up to the last digit!)

The SNB set a minimum of CHF 1.20 / EUR. Above this minimum the CHF is free to float. The fact that it´s never much above the 1.20 only shows that demand for CHF is consistently higher than for EUR, where the SNB buys the EUR-surplus.

The rate can go up (=CHF will be worth less) at any time, without SNB policy change.

Only for the CHF to become even more valuable would need a policy change.

Whether this change will come about, is a question only Mr Thomas J. Jordan (current SNB president) is able to answer. It depends on the development in the Eurozone, but it is not only an economic, but also a political decision.

Last edited by ChrisNeedsToKnow; 04.07.2012 at 19:23.
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Old 04.07.2012, 19:29
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The CHF is not, and was never, pegged to anything. Including the EUR now, or the DEM in the past.

Pegging means that the rate is always exactly one value, for example 1 USD = 3,6725 >>UAE Dirham<< (always and exactly the same, up to the last digit!)

The SNB set a minimum of CHF 1.20 / EUR. Above this minimum the CHF is free to float. The fact that it´s never much above the 1.20 only shows that demand for CHF is consistently higher than for EUR, where the SNB buys the EUR-surplus.

The rate can go up (=CHF will be worth less) at any time, without SNB policy change.

Only for the CHF to become even more valuable would need a policy change.

Whether this change will come about, is a question only Mr Thomas J. Jordan (current SNB president) is able to answer. It depends on the development in the Eurozone, but it is not only an economic, but also a political decision.
We all know what pegging means. Care to suggest a better verb?
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Old 04.07.2012, 19:32
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Re: US exchange rate

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I don't think the complaint is American v English. I think the complaint is that for us 10 people in Switzerland who aren't in finance, we have no idea what you guys are saying....
I´m also not in finance, but know some basic terms:

go long
If you think (whatever) will appreciate against your base-currency, you should "go long" on it, that means to buy it.

Basic example: If you see an ounce of gold is USD 1615 today, and you think that in the future this value will go up, then you should buy it, also called "go long" on it.

go short
If you think (whatever) will depreciate against your base-currency, you should "go short" on it, that means to sell it.

Basic example: If you see gold is USD 1615 today, and you think that in the future this value will go down, then you should sell it, also called "go short" on it.

sidenote
Financiers of this world found a way allowing you to sell stuff that you don´t have. So predicting any move correctly can make you win.
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Old 04.07.2012, 19:35
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Re: US exchange rate

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We all know what pegging means. Care to suggest a better verb?
First of all I would suggest not to use "pegging" incorrectly (as happened above).

Next, I would call the current arrangement a "set minimum rate". Maybe there´s a technical term for it which I don´t know? If so, it´s not "pegging"...
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