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  #21  
Old 22.01.2013, 12:51
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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True but that does not make it an investment.

When you sell your property you still need somewhere to live. If your property, for example, doubles in price then probably so have all the other properties in the area. So how do you realise your investment?
sell it and rent.

or

sell it and downsize

or

sell it and move somewhere else cheaper (different area, country)

or

do a sale and rent back
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  #22  
Old 22.01.2013, 14:40
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

below 1.24 at the moment
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  #23  
Old 22.01.2013, 14:47
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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EUR _ CHF Analysis from xe.com:

EUR-CHF retraced the recent rally on fund profit taking and corporate demand for swissy. The cross fell sharply from 1.2570 highs to just under 1.2400. The pace of the turnaround forced out weak longs in EUR-CHF and the tone is more defensive as a result. Selling pressure was noted just over 1.2450 in Asia and early European accounts pressured bids in front of 1.2400. EUR-CHF price action looks mobile though and one leading Swiss name has readjusted a long EUR-CHF trade to target 1.2750 from an intial target of 1.2550. We expect dip buying to continue, with barriers at 1.2575 and 1.2600 a target.
Powerful and compelling stuff
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  #24  
Old 22.01.2013, 15:39
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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That can be very expensive indeed, do you realise the implications of potential loss?
Credit Agricole charges 300CHF to set the fixed exchange rate.
Based on SNB statements the Swiss Franc is considered to be too high for the good of Swiss economy, so if we consider EURCHF at 1,2 as the bottom, I would say that there is very little chance of potential loss by hedging a loan against the rise of EURCHF. Everything can happen in the markets, nothing is for sure, but in my opinion the odds are in favor of those who hedge.
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Old 22.01.2013, 16:32
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

down to 1.2358 now.
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  #26  
Old 22.01.2013, 18:10
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Credit Agricole charges 300CHF to set the fixed exchange rate.
Based on SNB statements the Swiss Franc is considered to be too high for the good of Swiss economy, so if we consider EURCHF at 1,2 as the bottom, I would say that there is very little chance of potential loss by hedging a loan against the rise of EURCHF. Everything can happen in the markets, nothing is for sure, but in my opinion the odds are in favor of those who hedge.
Never believe what central banks say, the markets will ultimately decide. There is always unlimited potential loss where currencies are concerned .
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Old 22.01.2013, 18:57
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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Credit Agricole charges 300CHF to set the fixed exchange rate.
Based on SNB statements the Swiss Franc is considered to be too high for the good of Swiss economy, so if we consider EURCHF at 1,2 as the bottom, I would say that there is very little chance of potential loss by hedging a loan against the rise of EURCHF. Everything can happen in the markets, nothing is for sure, but in my opinion the odds are in favor of those who hedge.
Now the euro (surprisingly) is one of the world's strongest currencies they might make moves to devalue it.

Last edited by marton; 22.01.2013 at 18:58. Reason: spelling
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  #28  
Old 22.01.2013, 22:35
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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Are you aware of the capital gains tax on property sales in France??
It's actually the opposite. There is no capital gains tax on the sale of your main residence in France. In Geneva however you are taxed heavily on the capital gains in case you want to sell your house. Given the price of property in neighbouring France is 50% cheaper at 5 km from the Swiss border, 'il n'y a pas photo" as they say in French. Even if the current advantage of the private insurance would disappear, it would not change the overall picture in my opinion. Even if you pay 10k more this does not make up for a 1 million chf difference in purchase price. I would be much more scared buying in CH at these price levels, it only works as long as the current ultra low interest rates last. Time will tell what side of the border offers most upside potential but for me it looks like a no-brainer.
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  #29  
Old 25.01.2013, 20:00
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

In my opinion the "large and abrupt increase of the Euro versus the CHF" is an short-term aberration proceeding the SNB losing its battle in the currency wars. Switzerland has been creating much too much new money to buy Euros and IMO will eventually lose out when the big boys in the currency wars, the Japanese, the Brits and the ECB etc, continue to devalue their currencies at an ever faster pace.
I see the value of the S. franc being pushed up, i.e. the EUR/CHF rate dropping below 1.20 once again. To me it's inevitable!
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  #30  
Old 28.01.2013, 00:28
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

In my view, the CHF is strong right now because worldwide investors are adverse to risk due market conditions and prefer to keep their money in safe investments/currencies aka gold/CHF. When panic installs everyone run to this solutions.
So, as investors recover confidence and media stop flooding end of the world news, risk appetite increase and money will be transferred from "safe heavens" to markets, that will cause CHF to decrease in value. I think this is already happening.
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  #31  
Old 29.01.2013, 08:59
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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In my view, the CHF is strong right now because worldwide investors are adverse to risk due market conditions and prefer to keep their money in safe investments/currencies aka gold/CHF. When panic installs everyone run to this solutions.
So, as investors recover confidence and media stop flooding end of the world news, risk appetite increase and money will be transferred from "safe heavens" to markets, that will cause CHF to decrease in value. I think this is already happening.
I agree to some extent. However, the issues with the PIIGS economies are far from resolved.
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  #32  
Old 29.01.2013, 09:03
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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I agree to some extent. However, the issues with the PIIGS economies are far from resolved.
true, especially the issues with the little piggie that most people forget about, namely Cyprus. It will soon need a bailout and with all that Russian mob influence there, who knows what state their banking system is really in.
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  #33  
Old 29.01.2013, 09:46
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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true, especially the issues with the little piggie that most people forget about, namely Cyprus. It will soon need a bailout and with all that Russian mob influence there, who knows what state their banking system is really in.
Here's a solution for little piggy banks as suggested by Iceland President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51-Jfh6ADH0
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  #34  
Old 29.01.2013, 09:53
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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In my opinion the "large and abrupt increase of the Euro versus the CHF" is an short-term aberration proceeding the SNB losing its battle in the currency wars. Switzerland has been creating much too much new money to buy Euros and IMO will eventually lose out when the big boys in the currency wars, the Japanese, the Brits and the ECB etc, continue to devalue their currencies at an ever faster pace.
I see the value of the S. franc being pushed up, i.e. the EUR/CHF rate dropping below 1.20 once again. To me it's inevitable!
1) How is it losing its battle if the rate is above 1.2?
2) I don't think your assumptions about extending monetary policy are at all plausible. If anything these countries / central banks bar the BOJ are very likely to start reversing their monetary policy within the next 24 months.

--> My conclusion: EUR/CHF stays above 1.2 with 90% certainty over the next 24 months.
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  #35  
Old 29.01.2013, 11:02
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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1) How is it losing its battle if the rate is above 1.2?
2) I don't think your assumptions about extending monetary policy are at all plausible. If anything these countries / central banks bar the BOJ are very likely to start reversing their monetary policy within the next 24 months.

--> My conclusion: EUR/CHF stays above 1.2 with 90% certainty over the next 24 months.
I think there is at least a 10% chance that the rate could vary +/- 50% from 1.20 over the next 24 months. i.e from 0.6 to 1.8, just depends which way the cookie crumbles.
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  #36  
Old 29.01.2013, 11:19
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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1) How is it losing its battle if the rate is above 1.2?
2) I don't think your assumptions about extending monetary policy are at all plausible. If anything these countries / central banks bar the BOJ are very likely to start reversing their monetary policy within the next 24 months.

--> My conclusion: EUR/CHF stays above 1.2 with 90% certainty over the next 24 months.
Depends how much and for how long the SNB wants to buy Euro`s.
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Old 29.01.2013, 11:29
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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I think there is at least a 10% chance that the rate could vary +/- 50% from 1.20 over the next 24 months. i.e from 0.6 to 1.8, just depends which way the cookie crumbles.
I'm short that all day long... I'll take that bet with you if you are a buyer
My size is your size and all that

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Depends how much and for how long the SNB wants to buy Euro`s.
Well no %hit! There is no reason to think otherwise though... if anything they might raise the floor rather than lower it or abandon it all together.
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Old 29.01.2013, 13:46
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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Well no %hit! There is no reason to think otherwise though... if anything they might raise the floor rather than lower it or abandon it all together.
Then why only 90% sure?
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  #39  
Old 29.01.2013, 13:56
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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Then why only 90% sure?
If anything was 100% certain I wouldn't be sitting here wasting time on yet another currency / market / housing speculation thread
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  #40  
Old 29.01.2013, 14:00
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

General market view is (surprisingly) that the euro is overvalued, example CHF is circa 1.25 to euro.
If (I did write if) they take action to reduce the euro value then will the CHF value follow it down??
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