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  #41  
Old 29.01.2013, 14:08
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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General market view is (surprisingly) that the euro is overvalued, example CHF is circa 1.25 to euro.
First of all how did you come to this conclusion? What measure are you using to establish fair value and against which currency?

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If (I did write if) they take action to reduce the euro value then will the CHF value follow it down??
Assuming that 1) euro is over valued, 2) the euro value goes back towards it's assumed fair value, 3) everything else remains the same then the value of the CHF should track that of the EUR IMO.

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  #42  
Old 29.01.2013, 14:25
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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First of all how did you come to this conclusion? What measure are you using to establish fair value and against which currency?



Assuming that 1) euro is over valued, 2) the euro value goes back towards it's assumed fair value, 3) everything else remains the same then the value of the CHF should track that of the EUR IMO.

Waiting for someone to disagree
Must confess it was not my conclusion that the euro is overvalued; stole the idea from the FT.

I see EU politicians are now denying the euro is overvalued; which probably means it is......

"The euro is probably not overvalued now but the European Union is keen to avoid a currency war in which its exchange rate could suffer and set back Europe's economic recovery, the EU's top monetary official Olli Rehn said last Thursday."
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  #43  
Old 29.01.2013, 14:27
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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Then why only 90% sure?
I actually don't know where The_Love_Doctor has this number from. People tend to use terminology from probability and statistics to express uncertainty. I might be wrong, but I assume that The_Love_Doctor's percentage is not based on scenarios and their probability, but was only used to express that "he is pretty sure that the 1.2 exchange rate will not fall".

And I agree to the part in quotes. I see no reason why the SNB should fail, they can produce CHF out of thin air as long as they want. They could keep that exchange rate forever if they want to and are willing to take the consequences. One could argue what would happen when another central bank (ECB) would create an artificial exchange rate versus the CHF or what happens when the USDEUR exchange rate suddenly goes ballistic (The SNB would probably have a problem with a 100 Euro for 1 USD exchange rate), but I see no reason why this should happen. These scenarios are quite far fetched actually.

So the only real option in my opinion is that the SNB lifts the floor by free will. The most obvious reason (beside that it is just not needed any more) for this would be inflation, but as there is still deflation in Switzerland, this will probably happen not too fast as well.
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  #44  
Old 29.01.2013, 14:37
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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I assume that The_Love_Doctor's percentage is not based on scenarios and their probability, but was only used to express that "he is pretty sure that the 1.2 exchange rate will not fall".
You are 100% right there

We've already had the speculation about the floor a long time ago... Actually as soon as the SNB introduced it, and the majority of the EF speculators even voted that the floor wouldn't even hold till the end of the year

http://www.englishforum.ch/finance-b...s-chf-eur.html
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  #45  
Old 29.01.2013, 15:04
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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You are 100% right there

We've already had the speculation about the floor a long time ago... Actually as soon as the SNB introduced it, and the majority of the EF speculators even voted that the floor wouldn't even hold till the end of the year

http://www.englishforum.ch/finance-b...s-chf-eur.html
Are you sure he`s 100% correct, or maybe just 90%

The link you provided shows 70% of EF speculators thought the peg would hold to the end of the year :roll eyes:

I agree that I see the SNB continuing with the peg, but the longer it goes on the higher the consequences. I don`t see Europe having resolved it`s problems in the near future and it all depends how determined the SNB are to hold the line (pretty determined I think). In another 2 years are they still going to be prepared to buy Euro`s. If the peg went away then I assume the franc would be very strong again based on where it was before monetary policy interference.

I don`t trade and am not an expert, it`s just my opinion. If I want to gamble I`d rather gamble on a horse or a football match.
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  #46  
Old 29.01.2013, 15:14
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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If the peg went away then I assume the franc would be very strong again based on where it was before monetary policy interference.
If the peg / floor disappears for natural reasons (i.e. the market is just bid euro and basically europe has solved or appears to be solving it's problems which is the sentiment right now even though it might not be true) then obviously the swissie won't be back to where it was before the floor was introduced! That rate of 1.05 or whatever it was at the time was an extreme and not the norm it doesn't make sense on so many levels I'm not even going to bother explaining it. It was just exciting for people because they could just see that the money they were earning was increasing in value and they just couldn't see an and to it and BAAM comes the SNB. 10% movement in one day!

The Swiss economy can not handle anything less than 1.2 against the EURO it will lead to massive deflation in a country where everything is perceived to be over priced as it is! "Ain't no body got time for that!"

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  #47  
Old 29.01.2013, 15:33
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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I agree that I see the SNB continuing with the peg, but the longer it goes on the higher the consequences.
What consequences?

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I don`t see Europe having resolved it`s problems in the near future and it all depends how determined the SNB are to hold the line (pretty determined I think). In another 2 years are they still going to be prepared to buy Euro`s.
I agree

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If the peg went away then I assume the franc would be very strong again based on where it was before monetary policy interference.
It is not really a peg, just a floor and this is somehow the point. At the moment EURCHF is above 1.24, thus, right now, the SNB is most probably not intervening at all, but (from experience) rather diversifying it's portfolio. Thus at the moment it does not matter if there is a floor or not. Only if there is a threat of EURCHF falling below 1.2 the SNB would intervene.

If there was a peg they would have to intervene all the time (also if EURCHF goes above 1.2). If this was the case, they would also need to buy CHF back, depending on the situation and that is a completely other ball park (ask the Bank of England) as you need to give out something in return (that you can usually not create just like that).
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  #48  
Old 29.01.2013, 15:40
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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What consequences?


I agree


It is not really a peg, just a floor and this is somehow the point. At the moment EURCHF is above 1.24, thus, right now, the SNB is most probably not intervening at all, but (from experience) rather diversifying it's portfolio. Thus at the moment it does not matter if there is a floor or not. Only if there is a threat of EURCHF falling below 1.2 the SNB would intervene.

If there was a peg they would have to intervene all the time (also if EURCHF goes above 1.2). If this was the case, they would also need to buy CHF back, depending on the situation and that is a completely other ball park (ask the Bank of England) as you can only buy what someone is willing to sell and you need to give out something in return (that you can usually not create just like that).
It`s been called a peg by many but I know what you mean it`s a floor. As long as they don`t need to act it`s no problem. If they do need to continually act then they need to either find or print the money. And the simple fact that everyone know`s there is a floor probably also has some effect.
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  #49  
Old 29.01.2013, 16:02
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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1) How is it losing its battle if the rate is above 1.2?
2) I don't think your assumptions about extending monetary policy are at all plausible. If anything these countries / central banks bar the BOJ are very likely to start reversing their monetary policy within the next 24 months.

--> My conclusion: EUR/CHF stays above 1.2 with 90% certainty over the next 24 months.
That would imply that governments worldwide are going to stop spending money like drunken sailors on all their welfare programs????
Not likely, they are going to continue creating more debt and eventually there will be no one to buy it EXCEPT the central banks. But eventually perpetual motion (near zero interest rates) will come to an end. Just when everyone thinks that interest rates can never rise the bond bubbles will burst and interest rates skyrocket.
It's all happened before...but this time it will be a sight worse!!
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Old 29.01.2013, 16:07
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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You are 100% right there

We've already had the speculation about the floor a long time ago... Actually as soon as the SNB introduced it, and the majority of the EF speculators even voted that the floor wouldn't even hold till the end of the year

http://www.englishforum.ch/finance-b...s-chf-eur.html
Isn't it a bit like predicting when the next earthquake will hit? The geologists might well know it's coming... but they can never put a date on it.
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  #51  
Old 29.01.2013, 16:10
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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Just when everyone thinks that interest rates can never rise the bond bubbles will burst and interest rates skyrocket.
It's all happened before...but this time it will be a sight worse!!
Refer to point 2) in my post
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  #52  
Old 29.01.2013, 16:17
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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What consequences?


I agree


It is not really a peg, just a floor and this is somehow the point. At the moment EURCHF is above 1.24, thus, right now, the SNB is most probably not intervening at all, but (from experience) rather diversifying it's portfolio. Thus at the moment it does not matter if there is a floor or not. Only if there is a threat of EURCHF falling below 1.2 the SNB would intervene.

If there was a peg they would have to intervene all the time (also if EURCHF goes above 1.2). If this was the case, they would also need to buy CHF back, depending on the situation and that is a completely other ball park (ask the Bank of England) as you need to give out something in return (that you can usually not create just like that).
About "What consequences?2

They have a mountain of foreign currency that they have to manage. That is not an easy job & they probably did not have enough of the right sort of investment people to do that. You cannot just put it all in the cellar & you have to break it down into reasonable chunks. You cannot call a broker & say "I want to buy 100 Billion of ....."
And if you get your investment strategy wrong then you have a big downside risk.
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  #53  
Old 29.01.2013, 16:18
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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It`s been called a peg by many but I know what you mean it`s a floor. As long as they don`t need to act it`s no problem. If they do need to continually act then they need to either find or print the money.
They print it. And by "print" I mean "enter numbers on a computer", that money is usually not materialised.

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And the simple fact that everyone know`s there is a floor probably also has some effect.
This was for quite some time the case, yes. For some months "the market" respected the policy without an actual intervention actually being required. If I'd need to give this crisis a name, I would actually call it "credibility crisis".
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Old 29.01.2013, 16:23
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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Refer to point 2) in my post
When the Swiss tail gets wagged by the markets it will happen anyway. The dogs are the UK, Japan and EU. In comparison America and China are elephants.
Switzerland has already been subsidizing Euroland more than they can afford.
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Old 29.01.2013, 16:39
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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When the Swiss tail gets wagged by the markets it will happen anyway. The dogs are the UK, Japan and EU. In comparison America and China are elephants.
You're starting to sound a bit like Wollishofner where I don't know whether you agree or disagree

Either that or you've been watching too much CNBC
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  #56  
Old 29.01.2013, 16:40
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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About "What consequences?2

They have a mountain of foreign currency that they have to manage. That is not an easy job & they probably did not have enough of the right sort of investment people to do that. You cannot just put it all in the cellar & you have to break it down into reasonable chunks. You cannot call a broker & say "I want to buy 100 Billion of ....."
And if you get your investment strategy wrong then you have a big downside risk.
They are mostly government bonds (83%, mostly US, UK, Japanese, German, French, Dutch and Finish debt), some shares and other stuff. Handling these bonds should not be too difficult, as it is the daily business of a national bank. I don't see any too grave consequences in the handling of the assets themselves. The inflation is much more dangerous, if it will ever realise.

The "toxic waste" they had to buy from the UBS was much more difficult to handle (they are still unloading it, with profit) as the SNB was e.g. suddenly proud owner, and renovator, of an apartment building in downtown Chicago (German)
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Old 29.01.2013, 16:41
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

The only reason why people are talking about a "crisis over" in Europe is because two things happened:

1) The yields of Southern European countries dropped.
2) Recently, there was a significantish inflow of money into those markets.

In the real economy NOTHING Has changed.

Those investors that are betting on a recovery are, well, just betting on it.

Time will tell if they are right or wrong. IMO the structural problems of Europe remain and now that bureaucrats of Brussels got their Pyrrhic victory, things will start to get 'looser' again.

Its party time again, just yesterday, the EU Commission announced a "...proposed an ambitious budget of €80 billion over seven years...". That is for EU funded scientific research (seems Eurocrats deem the private sector idiotized and useless).

EU Commission lives in Cloud #9 but has an Ego #10.
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Old 29.01.2013, 16:49
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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I know nobody knows the future but I got a bit scared in the last
few days with a large and abrupt increase of the Euro versus the CHF.
We are currently doing some investment in France...
Do you think this is going to continue in such steep increase?
The rise is not massive but modest. It is welcome here in Switzerland, even if I up to now have not read a convincing explanation. Ideal for Switzerland, both the export industry and the inbound tourism of course would be 1.45 to 1.50
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Old 29.01.2013, 17:01
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

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Well most folks here are paid in swiss francs, and don't do speculative property shopping or investing in wrong items at wrong time. So strong swiss franc is actually very welcomed. 1.20 vs 1.25 doesn't change much in real life, 1.35 would be felt slightly and that 1.6 would be nasty.
There was a reason for strong franc rise, and I didn't see that reason disappear.
That is the voice from (mostly) silent crowd
1.60 would not be nasty but excellent for Switzerland, as both the export industry and the inbound tourism would be competitive again. This would generate business and secure jobs.

In fact, many importers still calculate with a EURO rate of 1.60 and never handed the advantages onward. To profit, you had to bypass the wholesalers

A EURO at a rate of 1.60 will give the exports a decent position again, and the inbound-tourism will then recover from the massive problems of the past few years
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Old 29.01.2013, 17:02
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Re: EURO growth versus CHF

A strong CHF is only bad if you need to generate CHF from a currency that isn't Swiss Francs. Playing the roulette wheel on the international markets is not what most businesses are good at. Some of us try to run our companies as efficiently as we can on the world market yet despite increased (foreign) turnover, our net profits effectively decrease as we need to pull out CHFs for most of our outgoings. And then we have to buy CHF with any currency available at a lousy exchange rate to pay for VAT on imports just to loan to the Swiss Government interest free for 3 months.

I stand by assisting export orientated companies by waiving (or at least reducing) temporary VAT payments for goods that are re-exported until the CHF finds a natural balance again. There is nothing to be lost in real terms.

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