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Old 12.02.2008, 11:59
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Sub-prime crisis discussion (UBS, CS et al)

Seeing UBS suffer makes me think it would be a good time to invest.

What do you think?... Worth waiting another few weeks to get in there??
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Old 12.02.2008, 12:01
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

UBS is down 3% this morning - so not yet...
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Old 12.02.2008, 12:04
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

What about Julius Bar?? Is this the right time to invest on this share?

Similary - Swiss Re? The stock is going down even after the news on Warren Buffet. Real attractive dividend and PE.. Any thoughts if this is the right time to go for this?
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Old 12.02.2008, 12:09
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

Do you think you have judged the market better than everyone else? If yes, invest, if no, don't.
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Old 12.02.2008, 12:09
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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Seeing UBS suffer makes me think it would be a good time to invest.

What do you think?... Worth waiting another few weeks to get in there??
I picked up some CS shares late January for under 50 francs off the back of the 48 franc low, its trading down today 53.85, but on the upswing.

todays announcement for the annuals was in my opinion good news, so I expect it to start tracking steadily north.

UBS forth quarter earnings is Thursday I believe, I expect more bad news & will look at picking up some bargains late Thursday or late Friday.

N.B. I don't work in baking*, but am privately speculating.

* banking

Last edited by Polorise; 12.02.2008 at 12:20. Reason: amusment value for cheapos
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Old 12.02.2008, 12:13
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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N.B. I don't work in baking, but am privately speculating.
If you aren't working in baking, how can we trust you to make us dough?
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Old 12.02.2008, 12:17
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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If you aren't working in baking, how can we trust you to make us dough?
watch yourself Brett, you may cut yourself ...

hopefully I am sprinkling self raising flour on my portfolio ...
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Old 12.02.2008, 13:28
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

Just for your info. UBS is probably a safe bet at the moment. If it trades under CHF 34.50 it will be called by the Swiss central Bank which in turn will mean a forced sell off of assets under management ie they will need to give say CS or JB some of the funds under their management. Given that that will cause chaos to the Swiss banking system almost everyone will pull together to stop that from happening. Given that you are fairly close to any bottom.

What I refer to here by the way is the Swiss Central Bank 8% of capital figure. UBS are currently at 8.2% and a fall to 34.50 will put them south of 8%. Note this security will only last until End of Feb when the EGM is held and the proposal to inject 14Billion in new capital is approved (or not).
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Old 12.02.2008, 14:07
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

On the strength of Richard's post UBS shares have staged a rally and are now up 0.5%...
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Old 12.02.2008, 14:12
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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On the strength of Richard's post UBS shares have staged a rally and are now up 0.5%...
Just goes to show the buying power of English Forum. Perhaps we should open our own bank - any takers(or better said givers)

Incidentally this is not such a dumb idea as in order to open a bank in Switzerland you only need to have 50K of capital...
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Old 12.02.2008, 14:24
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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Just goes to show the buying power of English Forum. Perhaps we should open our own bank - any takers(or better said givers)

Incidentally this is not such a dumb idea as in order to open a bank in Switzerland you only need to have 50K of capital...
And being a small bank with no presence in the US, we could probably offer an investment service for US expat citizens with no requirement to report their earnings back to the IRS.
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Old 12.02.2008, 14:27
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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And being a small bank with no presence in the US, we could probably offer an investment service for US expat citizens with no requirement to report their earnings back to the IRS.
So you are in then!
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Old 12.02.2008, 14:31
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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So you are in then!
Let me check my wallet. Yep, 50 rappen there. We only need to raise another Fr49 999,50 and it's all good.

Hey, I'll even donate my avatar for the logo.
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Old 12.02.2008, 14:33
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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Just goes to show the buying power of English Forum. Perhaps we should open our own bank - any takers(or better said givers)

Incidentally this is not such a dumb idea as in order to open a bank in Switzerland you only need to have 50K of capital...
Do I need Swiss citizenship to take that deal, do I get access to central bank loans etc. Seems a little too good to be true.
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Old 12.02.2008, 14:33
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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Let me check my wallet. Yep, 50 rappen there. We only need to raise another Fr49 999,50 and it's all good.

Hey, I'll even donate my avatar for the logo.
If I was to offer the 9999,50 then there is only 40K needed...
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Old 12.02.2008, 14:34
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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If I was to offer the 9999,50 then there is only 40K needed...
mmmmmmmmmm ..... if Richard is prepared to go short of 10k I'll put in 5
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Old 12.02.2008, 14:36
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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mmmmmmmmmm ..... if Richard is prepared to go short of 10k I'll put in 5
Was that 5 or 5K...
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Old 12.02.2008, 14:43
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

I've also heard that it is a buyer's market employing FX and FI traders at the moment.
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Old 12.02.2008, 14:51
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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I've also heard that it is a buyer's market employing FX and FI traders at the moment.
But you don't want the throw aways especially seeing as there would be plenty of FX business going on...
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Old 12.02.2008, 15:42
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Re: So when is a good time to invest in these banks?

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Was that 5 or 5K...
if your 9,999.50 isn't cowrie shells, then yes it would be 5k
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