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  #321  
Old 28.02.2017, 22:04
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Re: Investment fund

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His link was to an ETF that invests in consumer companies with large revenues from EM, much like Fundsmith's FEET. Ain't no banks in there.
The graph claims to be a 3 year graph, Neither fund has been in existence for 3 years. The assumption how the fund would have performed in 2008 / 2009 is back testing rather than from executed trades. Time will tell if investing in Emerging markets rewards investors for the additional risk. Warren Buffet looks like he will win his 500k bet that hedge funds can't out perform the S&P over 10 years, only 10 months to go on that one. Only 1 Hedge fund manager was prepared to make a bet using their own money.
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  #322  
Old 01.03.2017, 10:15
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Re: Investment fund

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The graph claims to be a 3 year graph, Neither fund has been in existence for 3 years. The assumption how the fund would have performed in 2008 / 2009 is back testing rather than from executed trades. Time will tell if investing in Emerging markets rewards investors for the additional risk.
the GBX fund not, but the index that it tracks has been around for much longer. I used the GBX fund (which is quite new) to have a direct comparison with FEET.

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Warren Buffet looks like he will win his 500k bet that hedge funds can't out perform the S&P over 10 years, only 10 months to go on that one. Only 1 Hedge fund manager was prepared to make a bet using their own money.
Warren Buffet also said that active fund managers can't beat the market long term and that the best long term investment is via index tracker ETFs.
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  #323  
Old 01.03.2017, 10:44
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Re: Investment fund

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Warren Buffet also said that active fund managers can't beat the market long term and that the best long term investment is via index tracker ETFs.
Warren himself has beaten the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested since 1965 20.8% v 9.7% an increase of 1,972,595% v 12,717%. Thats 155 times the growth of the S&P. In 1999 Berkshire fell 19.9% v S&P Plus 21% because he would not buy technology stock which he did not understand, everybody believed he had passed his sell by date at the time. For the last 50 years there were always very good reasons not to buy Berkshire Hathaway if you listened to the press.
Oh & Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the S&P on a 10 year view.

I believe on a long term view Fundsmith will outperform substantially, time will tell.
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  #324  
Old 01.03.2017, 10:51
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Re: Investment fund

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Warren himself has beaten the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested since 1965 20.8% v 9.7% an increase of 1,972,595% v 12,717%. Thats 155 times the growth of the S&P. In 1999 Berkshire fell 19.9% v S&P Plus 21% because he would not buy technology stock which he did not understand, everybody believed he had passed his sell by date at the time. For the last 50 years there were always very good reasons not to buy Berkshire Hathaway if you listened to the press.
Oh & Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the S&P on a 10 year view.

I believe on a long term view Fundsmith will outperform substantially, time will tell.
Though he has bought Apple...

The problem I see with tech companies, is that many do not have a sufficiently deep economic moat and by nature, the sector is subject to rapid change which companies must keep up with to survive. Tech is littered with dead bodies. Even former giants such as Nokia and Blackberry.

Google and Apple are huge, yet we've already seen huge phone companies and search engines die.
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  #325  
Old 01.03.2017, 10:54
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Re: Investment fund

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Though he has bought Apple...
Berkshire has, I don't think it's part of Warren's portfolio unless he read some of my posts on EF
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  #326  
Old 01.03.2017, 14:18
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Re: Investment fund

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...
Oh & Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the S&P on a 10 year view.

...
Are you sure about that?
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  #327  
Old 01.03.2017, 15:37
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Re: Investment fund

I believe so, your showing an 8 year graph rather than a 10 year graph.

1st March 2007 $105,400 v 1387 S&P
1st March 2017 $257,360 v 2383 S&P

You need to compare over an entire market cycle at least, Lehman did not collapse until 15 September 2008 & Berkshire fell less than the S&P during the fallout, it actually rose initially......
If you got back 2 market cycles & look from 1999 Berkshire does even better.

Last edited by fatmanfilms; 01.03.2017 at 15:59. Reason: Added figures for S&P
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  #328  
Old 01.03.2017, 15:48
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Re: Investment fund

Been a good day for the FTSEs. All over 1% up. FTSE all share breached 4k

S&P is already 0.83% up
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  #329  
Old 01.03.2017, 16:01
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Re: Investment fund

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I believe so, your showing an 8 year graph rather than a 10 year graph.

1st March 2007 $105,400 v 1387 S&P
1st March 2017 $257,360 v 2383 S&P

You need to compare over an entire market cycle at least, Lehman did not collapse until 15 September 2008 & Berkshire fell less than the S&P during the fallout, it actually rose initially......
If you got back 2 market cycles & look from 1999 Berkshire does even better.
Don't forget dividends for S&P (BH does not pay dividends)
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  #330  
Old 01.03.2017, 16:07
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Re: Investment fund

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Don't forget dividends for S&P (BH does not pay dividends)
Even so it's still behind & thats before you pay tax on the dividend.
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  #331  
Old 08.03.2017, 08:44
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Re: Investment fund

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EDIT, if you look at the NASDAQ longer performance, you may decide it's not the sort of stocks you want to hold, had you purchased in 2000 you would only have recently got your money back.
However, if you had done dollar-cost-averaging, as of 5 years before and until 5 years after the .com bubble, with dividends reinvested, that "short peak" around 1999-2000 wouldn't have hurt you that badly.
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  #332  
Old 08.03.2017, 08:56
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Re: Investment fund

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However, if you had done dollar-cost-averaging, as of 5 years before and until 5 years after the .com bubble, with dividends reinvested, that "short peak" around 1999-2000 wouldn't have hurt you that badly.
If your base currency was CHF, I don't think you would have been so happy, the USD averaged 1.70 CHF for a couple of those years, dividends were tiny with enormous PE's & many companies paying zero. Even investing for 20 years the CHF investor will be feeling pretty sour & would have probably thrown in the trowel after 15 years of loosing money in CHF terms.

The Peak of 5048 was reached on 10 march 2000 when the $ was worth 1.67 CHF, that peak would be 8346 for a CHF investor so needs to rise 43% from the close yesterday.

Last edited by fatmanfilms; 08.03.2017 at 09:16. Reason: Added the line needs to rise 43%
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  #333  
Old 08.03.2017, 09:34
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Re: Investment fund

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If your base currency was CHF, I don't think you would have been so happy, the USD averaged 1.70 CHF for a couple of those years, dividends were tiny with enormous PE's & many companies paying zero. Even investing for 20 years the CHF investor will be feeling pretty sour & would have probably thrown in the trowel after 15 years of loosing money in CHF terms.

The Peak of 5048 was reached on 10 march 2000 when the $ was worth 1.67 CHF, that peak would be 8346 for a CHF investor so needs to rise 43% from the close yesterday.
And if your base currency was GBP?
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  #334  
Old 08.03.2017, 09:43
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Re: Investment fund

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And if your base currency was GBP?
Perhaps you can provide the figures of £100 / 100CHF a month starting 1995 for 10/15/20 years. Being the £ was worth over 2 USD in 2007 & over 1.95 for most of 2008 it would be an interesting exercise.
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  #335  
Old 08.03.2017, 09:56
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Re: Investment fund

Anyone can always select a specific timeframe that suits their argument, even more so when it comes to comparing investments and annualisations.

If you take all data into consideration, trying to take out as much bias as possible, you need to see the Berkshire A class that dates back to 1987.

Since then BRK annualises 16.56% as of this writing, and SPX is at 10.70%.
These are total return numbers.

So yeah, Buffet is doing just fine.



And one last thing. Investments are not just about total return.
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  #336  
Old 08.03.2017, 10:07
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Re: Investment fund

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Anyone can always select a specific timeframe that suits their argument, even more so when it comes to comparing investments and annualisations.

If you take all data into consideration, trying to take out as much bias as possible, you need to see the Berkshire A class that dates back to 1987.

Since then BRK annualises 16.56% as of this writing, and SPX is at 10.70%.
These are total return numbers.

So yeah, Buffet is doing just fine.



And one last thing. Investments are not just about total return.
Berkshire shares (A Class) have not split since before Warren Buffet took over Berkshire Hathaway in 1965. I don't understand why you think they were created in 1987 unless your looking at 30 year graph or something.
B class were issued in 1996.
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  #337  
Old 08.03.2017, 10:12
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Re: Investment fund

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If your base currency was CHF, I don't think you would have been so happy, the USD averaged 1.70 CHF for a couple of those years, dividends were tiny with enormous PE's & many companies paying zero. Even investing for 20 years the CHF investor will be feeling pretty sour & would have probably thrown in the trowel after 15 years of loosing money in CHF terms.

The Peak of 5048 was reached on 10 march 2000 when the $ was worth 1.67 CHF, that peak would be 8346 for a CHF investor so needs to rise 43% from the close yesterday.
While that is a sound argument, it applies to all foreign currency investments (including FS

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Perhaps you can provide the figures of £100 / 100CHF a month starting 1995 for 10/15/20 years. Being the £ was worth over 2 USD in 2007 & over 1.95 for most of 2008 it would be an interesting exercise.
I would really like to do that. However, I don't know any way to backtest Nasdaq100 prior to 1999 (based on QQQ). Do you have any tips for nasdaq100 backtesting prior to that?

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Anyone can always select a specific timeframe that suits their argument, even more so when it comes to comparing investments and annualisations.

If you take all data into consideration, trying to take out as much bias as possible, you need to see the Berkshire A class that dates back to 1987.

Since then BRK annualises 16.56% as of this writing, and SPX is at 10.70%.
These are total return numbers.

So yeah, Buffet is doing just fine.



And one last thing. Investments are not just about total return.
The latest discussion was on the effect of the .com bubble on long term periodic investment in Nasdaq 100.

BRK had a much smaller exposure to tech and US overall.
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  #338  
Old 08.03.2017, 11:01
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Re: Investment fund

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I would really like to do that. However, I don't know any way to backtest Nasdaq100 prior to 1999 (based on QQQ). Do you have any tips for nasdaq100 backtesting prior to that?
I think neither ETF nor index existed before.

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The latest discussion was on the effect of the .com bubble on long term periodic investment in Nasdaq 100.
With hindsight it's easy to say you'd have stayed in.

But imagine:
You start buying and see the price balloon, double in a year or so, only to see it lose 70% from its top in a series of whipsaw movements. Everytime the index gains back 10% or 20% you get your hopes high, only to be hit again, and again, and again, by the next 30% drop. A rollercoaster of emotions over three years. Then you see the index double over the next five years, after 10-12 years FINALLY surpassing your initial purchase price, only to see it lose that gain in the 2008/09 drop. YET AGAIN.

Ten years since its birth and still 50% loss from its starting value. Only a few would take that kind of pain, or be stupid enough to not sell.
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  #339  
Old 08.03.2017, 11:10
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Re: Investment fund

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I think neither ETF nor index existed before.
.
Nasdaq has been an index since 1971, here is a 45 year chart.
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  #340  
Old 08.03.2017, 11:20
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Re: Investment fund

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I think neither ETF nor index existed before.


With hindsight it's easy to say you'd have stayed in.

But imagine:
You start buying and see the price balloon, double in a year or so, only to see it lose 70% from its top in a series of whipsaw movements. Everytime the index gains back 10% or 20% you get your hopes high, only to be hit again, and again, and again, by the next 30% drop. A rollercoaster of emotions over three years. Then you see the index double over the next five years, after 10-12 years FINALLY surpassing your initial purchase price, only to see it lose that gain in the 2008/09 drop. YET AGAIN.

Ten years since its birth and still 50% loss from its starting value. Only a few would take that kind of pain, or be stupid enough to not sell.
That is indeed something to consider. Probbaly if my only investment would have been in nasdaq100, I would have sold. However, as a certain part of a diversified portfolio... maybe not...

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Nasdaq has been an index since 1971, here is a 45 year chart.
do you know of a tool that could calculate total return with periodic investments based on the index?
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