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  #41  
Old 17.06.2015, 14:55
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Re: Investment fund

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65% of the SMI is just 3 stocks so I would not want to track that TBH.

I have recommended www.fundsmith.co.uk / www.fundsmith.eu several times in the last 30 months, I had about 5 years salary invested in the fund until last week when I added 80% of my Swiss Pension Fund which I took as cash.
I am not judging the company whatsoever but by only reading their website my first impression is not good:

1 - A fund that is less than 5 years old is nothing in order to judge someones ability to be a good portfolio manager. By some investment theories the good return of this fund can be explained by simply luck.

2 - The curricula of the guys from the website are far from impressive when it comes to equity investments. Looks like most of them were simply experienced "bureaucrats" in their past jobs and not stock pickers.

3 - No fees for performance? Hum... Are they any kind of good Samaritans? Looks like more of a marketing strategy to simply fatten the fund...

4 - "Just a small number of high quality, resilient, global growth companies that are good value and which we intend to hold for a long time, and in which we invest our own money." Why I would pay a fee for someone with a debatable track record just to hold stocks for a long time?

5 - Last but not least: visually the website is terrible.

Food for thought:


Last edited by Capo; 17.06.2015 at 15:07.
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  #42  
Old 17.06.2015, 15:41
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Re: Investment fund

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3 - No fees for performance? Hum... Are they any kind of good Samaritans? Looks like more of a marketing strategy to simply fatten the fund...
The website does look a bit... web 1.0, but I think we should not judge a fund by the lack of performance fees (I'm not disputing your other points). There are now many long only equity funds (exchange traded or not) which do not charge performance fees. The game has changed (I think irreversibly) for stock picker managers.

The days are over when you could turn up with a 2/20 structure for simply buying stocks with a fairly low probability of beating vanilla index ETFs. The ETFs get there 90% of the way with 10% of the cost and ceremony.

It is a bit as you say though, you need to "fatten" up the fund as much as possible so that the <1% management fee still affords you the Caribbean vacation. It's difficult to get clients hooked on stellar performance because with stellar returns comes stellar volatility. People aiming to make "f*** you" money and get out are up for that kind of adrenaline, but the average nervous Nelly isn't.

Last edited by xynth; 18.06.2015 at 13:55.
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  #43  
Old 17.06.2015, 16:01
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Re: Investment fund

Check the Tastytrade.com financial network. They are good but be skeptical they try to sell their oil fish also.
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  #44  
Old 17.06.2015, 16:02
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Re: Investment fund

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We are going abroad for a sabbatical year and have built up some savings to come back to.
Stocks are a long-term investment because in the long run they show the highest growth rate. However, they're risky in the sense that you could easily lose 20% or more within a few months - in fact, that's virtually guaranteed to happen over most multi-year spans. Anybody investing in stocks need to be aware of that, and be able shrug off such an event with ease.

Stocksmith brings currency risk for an investor based on CHF. 2007-2010 the £ lost about 30% vs CHF, this can happen again any day. The annual 1.09% charged by stocksmith isn't that small, to boot - that's a cumulative 20% hit over 20 years. Some other funds (though perhaps not £-denominated) charge far less, among them Vanguard products which often are below 0.1% annually.

If Greece were to eventually leave the EU or go bankrupt, the CHF is likely to go up considerably against most other currencies, which in turn means considerable loss on investments abroad, including investments in £.

IMO OP is getting poor advice here. With a one-year investment horizon, and expecting to live off those savings, OP needs stability and reliability, which translates to "very little risk". That means "no stocks, no bonds, no foreign currency".

OP, since you appear to want to come back to CH, you're probably best served with an ordinary savings account in CHF. Though there probably are better options than UBS (this applies generally - UBS and CS usually are much more expensive than the smaller banks).
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  #45  
Old 17.06.2015, 16:04
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Re: Investment fund

Chinese growth is still tangible though and money printing and set to last for at least another year. I wouldn't worry much about it, until it stops.
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  #46  
Old 17.06.2015, 17:07
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Re: Investment fund

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Stocks are a long-term investment because in the long run they show the highest growth rate. However, they're risky in the sense that you could easily lose 20% or more within a few months - in fact, that's virtually guaranteed to happen over most multi-year spans. Anybody investing in stocks need to be aware of that, and be able shrug off such an event with ease.

Stocksmith brings currency risk for an investor based on CHF. 2007-2010 the £ lost about 30% vs CHF, this can happen again any day. The annual 1.09% charged by stocksmith isn't that small, to boot - that's a cumulative 20% hit over 20 years. Some other funds (though perhaps not £-denominated) charge far less, among them Vanguard products which often are below 0.1% annually.

If Greece were to eventually leave the EU or go bankrupt, the CHF is likely to go up considerably against most other currencies, which in turn means considerable loss on investments abroad, including investments in £.

IMO OP is getting poor advice here. With a one-year investment horizon, and expecting to live off those savings, OP needs stability and reliability, which translates to "very little risk". That means "no stocks, no bonds, no foreign currency".

OP, since you appear to want to come back to CH, you're probably best served with an ordinary savings account in CHF. Though there probably are better options than UBS (this applies generally - UBS and CS usually are much more expensive than the smaller banks).
You don't actually understand the currency risk, Nestle a Swiss company does 98% of it's business outside of Switzerland, if the Swiss Franc strengthens then profits will be lower.

As the majority of the stocks in the Fundsmith portfolio are not UK stocks & the UK stocks don't make all their profits in the UK, then whatever happens to the £ is fairly irrelevant to a CHF or Euro investor.

The Fund is valued in £ / Euro & CHF if your a big player.

I think you have if wrong on what will happen to the euro if Greece leaves, it should strengthen V the CHF.
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I am not judging the company whatsoever but by only reading their website my first impression is not good:

1 - A fund that is less than 5 years old is nothing in order to judge someones ability to be a good portfolio manager. By some investment theories the good return of this fund can be explained by simply luck.

2 - The curricula of the guys from the website are far from impressive when it comes to equity investments. Looks like most of them were simply experienced "bureaucrats" in their past jobs and not stock pickers.

3 - No fees for performance? Hum... Are they any kind of good Samaritans? Looks like more of a marketing strategy to simply fatten the fund...

4 - "Just a small number of high quality, resilient, global growth companies that are good value and which we intend to hold for a long time, and in which we invest our own money." Why I would pay a fee for someone with a debatable track record just to hold stocks for a long time?

5 - Last but not least: visually the website is terrible.

Food for thought:

Terry Smith has been around for a long time, he has over £50,000,000 in the fund & will add significantly to this. Cant think of anyone else who has so much invested in their own fund other than Warren Buffet. Take a look at http://berkshirehathaway.com if you want to see a really basic site from the best stock picker in the world.
Spending money on a website clearly is not that important to them.

I find it good news that you disagree with my opinion.
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  #47  
Old 17.06.2015, 17:38
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Re: Investment fund

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Terry Smith has been around for a long time, he has over £50,000,000 in the fund & will add significantly to this. Cant think of anyone else who has so much invested in their own fund other than Warren Buffet.
Maybe Mr. Madoff?
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  #48  
Old 17.06.2015, 21:42
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Re: Investment fund

A while ago i came across an interesting article in German magazine "Focus" , where they asked 3 *experts* how they would invest €5k, €10k and €20k (given that also in Germany, interest rates on savings accounts are close to zero).
I was surprised to see how much they agreed, to varying degrees, on aloocating a (significant) portion to ETF's:
http://www.focus.de/finanzen/banken/...d_4159458.html

More in general: don't try to get financial advice *for free* from any messageboard, no matter how reliable it is or may sound. But talk to experts who you feel you can trust. If you've earned your money by working for it, you need to continue to look after it and not just "throw it at some stock/stockmarket/account/whatever-website-recommended-on-EF"!

Alternatively, forget what i wrote above, and if you're really clever I can highly recommend the advice i got from my neighbour's best friend to put all your money in a very small company in Costa Rica, who you've never heard of who are in the teak wood business (globally growing demand!) and will give you a literally incredible return on your investment.

On a side note, Zerohedge.com i can recommend to read occasionally (not to take any *advice* from). Of course there are some mad hatters out there commenting or writing articles, but i also see fact-based articles with interesting views/perspectives which the main stream media (WSJ, BBC etc) probably don't dare to publish, or only in an extremely watered down version. Recently they had a convincing article about the massive volumes of risky derivatives Deutsche Bank is invested in. And the problems they are facing. Time will tell whether they are right, or whether they were overly negative about Deutsche Bank.
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  #49  
Old 17.06.2015, 22:43
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Re: Investment fund

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A while ago i came across an interesting article in German magazine "Focus" , where they asked 3 *experts* how they would invest €5k, €10k and €20k (given that also in Germany, interest rates on savings accounts are close to zero).
I was surprised to see how much they agreed, to varying degrees, on aloocating a (significant) portion to ETF's:
http://www.focus.de/finanzen/banken/...d_4159458.html

More in general: don't try to get financial advice *for free* from any messageboard, no matter how reliable it is or may sound. But talk to experts who you feel you can trust. If you've earned your money by working for it, you need to continue to look after it and not just "throw it at some stock/stockmarket/account/whatever-website-recommended-on-EF"!

Alternatively, forget what i wrote above, and if you're really clever I can highly recommend the advice i got from my neighbour's best friend to put all your money in a very small company in Costa Rica, who you've never heard of who are in the teak wood business (globally growing demand!) and will give you a literally incredible return on your investment.

On a side note, Zerohedge.com i can recommend to read occasionally (not to take any *advice* from). Of course there are some mad hatters out there commenting or writing articles, but i also see fact-based articles with interesting views/perspectives which the main stream media (WSJ, BBC etc) probably don't dare to publish, or only in an extremely watered down version. Recently they had a convincing article about the massive volumes of risky derivatives Deutsche Bank is invested in. And the problems they are facing. Time will tell whether they are right, or whether they were overly negative about Deutsche Bank.
I am always amused by experts advisors who bother to work for a living. If they had any idea they would be personally wealthy enough not to work.

I think all Banks should be avoided, they all would be bankrupt if interest rates were not held artificially low.
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  #50  
Old 18.06.2015, 10:49
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Re: Investment fund

Great stuff and food for thought, now if I had some money to play with instead of having to spend each and every last cent month to month on unnecessary crap like food, roof over my head, beer, and the greatest extravagance: petrol and oil for iron pig, I would have €uros to invest. If I knew how.
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  #51  
Old 18.06.2015, 12:22
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Re: Investment fund

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You don't actually understand the currency risk, Nestle a Swiss company does 98% of it's business outside of Switzerland, if the Swiss Franc strengthens then profits will be lower.

As the majority of the stocks in the Fundsmith portfolio are not UK stocks & the UK stocks don't make all their profits in the UK, then whatever happens to the £ is fairly irrelevant to a CHF or Euro investor.

The Fund is valued in £ / Euro & CHF if your a big player.

I think you have if wrong on what will happen to the euro if Greece leaves, it should strengthen V the CHF.


Terry Smith has been around for a long time, he has over £50,000,000 in the fund & will add significantly to this. Cant think of anyone else who has so much invested in their own fund other than Warren Buffet. Take a look at http://berkshirehathaway.com if you want to see a really basic site from the best stock picker in the world.
Spending money on a website clearly is not that important to them.

I find it good news that you disagree with my opinion.
Hi. As I said, I am not judging this Terry Smith guy, I just gave my impressions based on what I found on the web. From what I can see (maybe I am missing something) from his curriculum, he has no clear track record of being a portfolio manager prior to 2010.

How do you know he has £50,000,000 in the fund? Even if it's true, which it's reasonable to think it is, it's still a very old and known marketing cliché say "our partners have their own money invested in the fund".

Well, someone with a track record of more than 50 years of successful investment does not need a fancy website...

I didn't disagree with your opinion, I just gave my humble opinion.
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  #52  
Old 18.06.2015, 12:27
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Re: Investment fund

that is why i wouldn't put all of my eggs into someone else's basket. there's always a risk that it could be a madoff.
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  #53  
Old 18.06.2015, 12:34
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Re: Investment fund

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The website does look a bit... web 1.0, but I think we should not judge a fund by the lack of performance fees (I'm not disputing your other points). There are now many long only equity funds (exchange traded or not) which do not charge performance fees. The game has changed (I think irreversibly) for stock picker managers.

The days are over when you could turn up with a 2/20 structure for simply buying stocks with a fairly low probability of beating vanilla index ETFs. The ETFs get there 90% of the way with 10% of the cost and ceremony.

It is a bit as you say though, you need to "fatten" up the fund as much as possible so that the <1% management fee still affords you the Caribbean vacation. It's difficult to get clients hooked on stellar performance because with stellar returns comes stellar volatility. People aiming to make " you" money and get out are up for that kind of adrenaline, but the average nervous Nelly isn't.
I completely agree with your point. But since the overwhelm majority of the funds cannot even match the indexes, they have eliminated the performance fees just to desperately lure clients. Those very few managers who really bring above-average performance can therefore still charge performance fees.
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Old 18.06.2015, 12:44
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Re: Investment fund

I'll quote the legendary investor Benjamin Graham on this:
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More and more institutions are likely to realize that they cannot expect better than market-average results from their equity portfolios unless they have the advantage of better-than-average financial and security analysis. Logically this should move some of the institutions toward accepting the S&P 500 results as the norm for expectable performance. In turn this might lead to using the S&P 500 or 425 lists as actual portfolios. If this proves true, clients may then find themselves questioning the standard fees most of them are paying financial institutions to handle these investments.
Generally, investment funds do not beat the index and are therefore not worth the money. I'll recommend Vanguard S&P500 ETF (VOO).

Here you have all ETFs tracking various indexes. It does not matter much which index you choose, but it should be broad. S&P500 is a very good pick.
http://etfdb.com/index/sp-500-index/
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Old 08.07.2015, 09:43
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Re: Investment fund

So about 3 weeks ago someone here recommended to buy Chinese stocks. I hope to God nobody did so. The Chinese stock market was in such an obvious bubble (and still is) that everyone should've seen it. Since then it has lost 30% of its value.

China basically tried to move the massive corporate debt onto the population at large, and the population at large (not having any other means to invest savings - real estate is already bust) went in balls deep. I suspect they had hoped for a steady rise in the markets for the next 10 years, but what they got was boom & bust within a year.
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Old 08.07.2015, 10:19
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Re: Investment fund

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So about 3 weeks ago someone here recommended to buy Chinese stocks. I hope to God nobody did so. The Chinese stock market was in such an obvious bubble (and still is) that everyone should've seen it. Since then it has lost 30% of its value.
You could say that about pretty much any other market. They've pretty much all went up by >100% since the 2008 crash. Most have already started retracting or are moving sideways. China was barely the one to rise and crash fastest. IMO we are already past the top in this market cycle. Time to cash your earnings.

I went out of equities and bonds in April/May and it's been an excellent decision.
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Old 08.07.2015, 10:46
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Re: Investment fund

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You could say that about pretty much any other market. They've pretty much all went up by >100% since the 2008 crash.
I agree that western markets can also seem over inflated, but look at the Shanghai Composite index. There was a massive explosion in volume and in a span of a year it more than *doubled* in value. This was not a recovery from a recent crash mind you. I'm not a discretionary trader, but even to my untrained eye that is badly in "imminent bubble burst" territory (top chart is index level and bottom is trade volume of component stocks):



I cut off some previous years but it's basically flat since 2008.
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Old 08.07.2015, 11:05
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Re: Investment fund

You are absolutely right, the bubble burst was imminent. This is exactly the reason I got out. I might have not caught the very peak, but still happy with the outcome of this investment.
I wonder if Nikkei 225 will be the next to follow?

Commodities seem interesting at the moment. Copper and Oil prices cannot continue to fall forever, can they?
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Old 08.07.2015, 12:43
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Re: Investment fund

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You could say that about pretty much any other market. They've pretty much all went up by >100% since the 2008 crash. Most have already started retracting or are moving sideways. China was barely the one to rise and crash fastest. IMO we are already past the top in this market cycle. Time to cash your earnings.

I went out of equities and bonds in April/May and it's been an excellent decision.
yes. all assets classes (including shares and property) have been in a bubble since monetary policy went haywire.
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Old 08.07.2015, 12:59
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Re: Investment fund

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You could say that about pretty much any other market. They've pretty much all went up by >100% since the 2008 crash.
Out of interest when did you start investing in equities, now you have completely sold out?

That 100% increase is just over 10% compound from a market low, US Equities have compounded at a higher rate since 1900, movements of -10% - -30% are nothing out of the ordinary. I don't know any 'market timers' who ever beat the market, being in cash & miss just a few days where the market rises over 10% in a day.

When fundsmith set up the market was very negative, just like today. People did not want to invest, then it rose 50% then 100% & the investment mood is still very negative. I don't remember many people here saying the stock market was the place to put their money, it was the same 3 years ago when I said I wanted to put 90% of my net worth in Apple stock, just look for Phil_MCR's technology thread if you want more details.

The market is dangerous only when everybody agrees with what your doing. Doing whats obvious 'to everybody' never pays off.
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