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Old 12.06.2016, 17:16
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Brexit -- attitude to investments?

I'm pro-Brexit, and have already cast my Leave vote.

Despite my hope that the UK will leave, I do expect some turbulence in the markets. I'm no expert but experience tells me that the financial markets get spooked by change and uncertainty, and some frothy panic is almost certain to ensue.

I have a fair amount of investment in equities through pension funds, ISAs and general savings, and am wondering what the best approach is. Should we be turning everything into cash or bonds with the intention of seeing out the volatility and buying back in at a later date?

No one has a crystal ball but what's your view? IF the Leave vote wins, is the feeling that volatility will be short-lived and it will be business as usual before long? Or is the expectation that there will be quite a hit (say 10% or more) and that things won't recover for quite a while? And crucially, do you think this will be a global ripple, or should we be moving funds away from UK and European markets?

Thanks for any insights.
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Old 12.06.2016, 17:42
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

Personally, I think there will be a dip in GBP and the markets before the vote and a recovery if no Brexit and another dip if brexit is voted for.

Then I expect the next few years to be a roller coaster as negotiations begin, a 2nd referendum is proposed etc. etc. but after a few years, I would expect thing to improve with the economy.

I think it will present a buying opportunity for anyone wanting to buy GBP, UK property etc.

UK exporters would do well as revenues increase relative to cost base due to FX impact.
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Old 12.06.2016, 18:18
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

Just a personal observation/guess: it can't be worse than 2008 and GBP is vulnerable to brexit. Actually, I haven't seen any market immune from such maneuvers within which there's a dormant domino effect. Long story short, I don't expect a massive impact since financial markets, usually, have a tendency to price things beforehand (i.e., bad things are necessary to prevent worst things). As I said, these are just my personal opinions.
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Old 12.06.2016, 18:38
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

Definitely convert to CHF and buy back afterwards if you're convinced there will be an exit. But don't if, your own vote notwithstanding, you expect a remain result.

If there is Brexit, I expect that Britain will suffer financially for a few years. But long term, things tend to even out. I wouldn't expect the UK to go into permanent decline.
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Old 12.06.2016, 18:44
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

I think it will be worse than 2008 but mostly for the FTSE250 and not the FTSE100. At least 20% drop the £ and less for the stock market.

Opening a short on the FTSE now would be a good idea if you believe Brexit will happen.
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Old 12.06.2016, 18:53
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

Generally markets already factor in changes before they happen. If not why would a remain outcome result in a bounce in markets and sterling.

I anticipate a Brexit is fairly well already mostly factored in. Of course there will be a short-term shock effect, but life will go on and 2 to 5 years down the line the UK will be booming...
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Old 12.06.2016, 18:56
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

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I'm pro-Brexit, and have already cast my Leave vote.

Despite my hope that the UK will leave, I do expect some turbulence in the markets. I'm no expert but experience tells me that the financial markets get spooked by change and uncertainty, and some frothy panic is almost certain to ensue.

I have a fair amount of investment in equities through pension funds, ISAs and general savings, and am wondering what the best approach is. Should we be turning everything into cash or bonds with the intention of seeing out the volatility and buying back in at a later date?

No one has a crystal ball but what's your view? IF the Leave vote wins, is the feeling that volatility will be short-lived and it will be business as usual before long? Or is the expectation that there will be quite a hit (say 10% or more) and that things won't recover for quite a while? And crucially, do you think this will be a global ripple, or should we be moving funds away from UK and European markets?

Thanks for any insights.
Holding cash in GBP would be the worst possible thing to do, holding equities in companies with international earnings would be far safer. My preferred investment vehicle being www.fundsmith.co.uk.

Market timing is why small investors always do very badly as the listen to the daily market noise. There will always be 'uncertainty' there certainly was thought the 20th Century, markets always go up over time & single day up movements can be huge. Being out of the market is probably a bigger risk than being in.
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I think it will be worse than 2008 but mostly for the FTSE250 and not the FTSE100. At least 20% drop the £ and less for the stock market.

Opening a short on the FTSE now would be a good idea if you believe Brexit will happen.
Expect to loose a lot of money, if the £ drops 20% the FTSE market will almost certainly rise considerably due to foreign earnings.
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Old 12.06.2016, 18:57
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

If it gets worse than 2008:
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Old 12.06.2016, 19:15
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

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why would it be even close to what happened in 2008?
I don't expect it to be like 2008 gbp crash/currency depreciation. As far as I remember it was 25% (?). Brexit's impact, in my opinion, can't be that deep. Besides, I think a little depreciation could even be healthy for Britain in the long run.
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Old 12.06.2016, 19:19
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

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Holding cash in GBP would be the worst possible thing to do, holding equities in companies with international earnings would be far safer. My preferred investment vehicle being www.fundsmith.co.uk.

Market timing is why small investors always do very badly as the listen to the daily market noise. There will always be 'uncertainty' there certainly was thought the 20th Century, markets always go up over time & single day up movements can be huge. Being out of the market is probably a bigger risk than being in.

Expect to loose a lot of money, if the £ drops 20% the FTSE market will almost certainly rise considerably due to foreign earnings.
Could you recommend a hedging option?

Using UK equities to hedge seems like a bad idea since GBP is likely to hit somewhere near 1.5 on Remain vote, in which case there will likely be a drop in UK equities too.

I've seen recommendations about increasing holdings in CHF on the basis that an Exit vote will mean GBP/EUR flowing into CHF. It's hard to quantify the relative magnitude though.
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Old 12.06.2016, 19:31
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

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why would it be even close to what happened in 2008?
Because the issues underlying 2008 crash were never fixed, just kicked down the road. Brexit could be the trigger that could bring those issues back to the fore and not just for the UK but for the whole of the EU.
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Old 12.06.2016, 19:32
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

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Could you recommend a hedging option?

Using UK equities to hedge seems like a bad idea since GBP is likely to hit somewhere near 1.5 on Remain vote, in which case there will likely be a drop in UK equities too.

I've seen recommendations about increasing holdings in CHF on the basis that an Exit vote will mean GBP/EUR flowing into CHF. It's hard to quantify the relative magnitude though.
maybe buy UK companies with GBP costs but non-GBP revenues.
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Old 12.06.2016, 19:58
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

(Just a reminder that this isn't a discussion on the pros and cons of Brexit. That's discussed elsewhere. I'm interested only in financial markets behaviour.)

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I don't expect a massive impact since financial markets, usually, have a tendency to price things beforehand
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Generally markets already factor in changes before they happen
Agreed, markets tend to price things in but I'm not so sure that this has happened here. My investments have risen steadily in the last couple of weeks. My instinct (and we don't have much more to go on than instinct) is that the markets are underestimating the possibility of Brexit.

I'm surprised by the general assumption in the media and by the bookies that Remain is a firm favourite. Anecdotal, I know, but I was in the UK last week and almost everyone I spoke to, whether family, workmates, taxi drivers, bar staff and other random strangers, were telling me they were voting Leave. I watched the big TV debate on Thursday that most commentators concluded was a Leave victory. Then the Independent newspaper conducted a poll showing a 10 point lead for Leave. Despite all this, we are still being told that the Remain campaign will win. I'm missing something here!

My point is that if everyone is presuming a Remain victory but Leave wins, there is likely to be a big reaction. If Leave is assumed beforehand, and Leave wins, then there will be a much smaller reaction.

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Holding cash in GBP would be the worst possible thing to do, holding equities in companies with international earnings would be far safer. My preferred investment vehicle being www.fundsmith.co.uk.

Market timing is why small investors always do very badly as the listen to the daily market noise. There will always be 'uncertainty' there certainly was thought the 20th Century, markets always go up over time & single day up movements can be huge. Being out of the market is probably a bigger risk than being in.

Expect to loose a lot of money, if the £ drops 20% the FTSE market will almost certainly rise considerably due to foreign earnings.
I'm a keen Fundsmith investor already, and it's one fund that I'll leave alone as Terry Smith appears to have the knack of being able to keep the ship steady when all around are sinking.

I totally agree about market timing being less important than "time in the market". I try to adopt strategic deafness when things are bubbling up. But this is a big event, and I'm not 25 anymore. I'm hoping to retire in the next 3 or 4 years latest, so if I thought there would be a 5 year decline to ride out, I would think it worth switching to bonds and perhaps increasing my gold holdings a little.

One more question if I may. I confess that currency fluctuations confuse the hell out of me. Let's say I have £X,000 in cash, sitting in a savings account. If I decide to invest it in SomeETFTracker that's quoted in both pounds and US dollars, I presume that I would be better off buying in dollars if I think that, after a Brexit, the value of the £ will drop? Thanks.
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Old 12.06.2016, 20:14
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

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(Just a reminder that this isn't a discussion on the pros and cons of Brexit. That's discussed elsewhere. I'm interested only in financial markets behaviour.)





Agreed, markets tend to price things in but I'm not so sure that this has happened here. My investments have risen steadily in the last couple of weeks. My instinct (and we don't have much more to go on than instinct) is that the markets are underestimating the possibility of Brexit.

I'm surprised by the general assumption in the media and by the bookies that Remain is a firm favourite. Anecdotal, I know, but I was in the UK last week and almost everyone I spoke to, whether family, workmates, taxi drivers, bar staff and other random strangers, were telling me they were voting Leave. I watched the big TV debate on Thursday that most commentators concluded was a Leave victory. Then the Independent newspaper conducted a poll showing a 10 point lead for Leave. Despite all this, we are still being told that the Remain campaign will win. I'm missing something here!

My point is that if everyone is presuming a Remain victory but Leave wins, there is likely to be a big reaction. If Leave is assumed beforehand, and Leave wins, then there will be a much smaller reaction.



I'm a keen Fundsmith investor already, and it's one fund that I'll leave alone as Terry Smith appears to have the knack of being able to keep the ship steady when all around are sinking.

I totally agree about market timing being less important than "time in the market". I try to adopt strategic deafness when things are bubbling up. But this is a big event, and I'm not 25 anymore. I'm hoping to retire in the next 3 or 4 years latest, so if I thought there would be a 5 year decline to ride out, I would think it worth switching to bonds and perhaps increasing my gold holdings a little.

One more question if I may. I confess that currency fluctuations confuse the hell out of me. Let's say I have £X,000 in cash, sitting in a savings account. If I decide to invest it in SomeETFTracker that's quoted in both pounds and US dollars, I presume that I would be better off buying in dollars if I think that, after a Brexit, the value of the £ will drop? Thanks.
I retired just under 2 years ago, we have had 3 market crashes. All were 'end of the world' stock market events at the time . I aim to be fully invested all the time, you will make more money over time this way. Even in retirement you will live for 20-40 years so no reason to make short term investments. Remember people used to die aged 67 soon after retiring.

The EFT will be worth an identical amount, it's just quoted in USD / £ / Whatever
The £ one will go up if the £ weakens, the $ one will now be just be worth more in £
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Could you recommend a hedging option?
.
Hedging is always a risk in itself & can prove costly. I know some one who bought a House in CHF & decided to hedge the £. He has to date paid £1,500,000 to cover the cost of hedging i.e the full cost of the CHF strengthens 40%
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Old 13.06.2016, 10:48
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

I guess there will always be reactions in FX and markets even if it is remain that wins. The discussion is out and brexit is more alive than before. But this will all be short term.

My view is that investments are a long term game and as FTF says it may be more risky being out of the market than being in. Hedging is expensive
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Old 13.06.2016, 11:10
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

The GBP has already plummeted quite a lot, and investors are obviously nervous about a Brexit. I think it's just a good case for diversification - holding good quality investments in the UK, US, Europe, Emerging markets.


Looking at the FTSE-100 for example, the majority of revenue comes from abroad, so a weak GBP will directly and quickly increase profit in GBP. Then comes strong dividend payments and generally a share price rise (though this can take time). UK mid-caps will most likely be hit harder due to more revenue coming from the UK and developed Europe.


I think it's just a good time to sit tight and buy into opportunities when they arise, just like any other time. UK business will keep on keepin' on


I feel more comfortable in equities right now than in GBP cash. Currency has it's own risks. Obviously good to have some powder dry for opportunities too.


Hold on to yer butts


P.S. A good article on using CAPE to value the FTSE-100: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3981...ideways-market
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Old 13.06.2016, 18:55
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

I think people tend to conflate what it means for markets to price in events. Some of the uncertainty stemming from the Brexit has been priced in already, one can see this on the GBP, FTSE and to a good extent continental index option prices. At the same time, I do not believe that the Brexit itself (as in the actual event, if it were to happen) has been priced in. This is because nobody knows with certainty what this will entail. Brexit itself couldn't have been priced in just for the fact that we don't even know if it will happen!

Do not make the dangerous assumption that currencies or stocks cannot fall/rise anymore because the risks have been priced in. They haven't. A potential for some uncertainty has been priced in.

Consider if the Leave vote wins, the new increased uncertainty will be priced in right after, but again not the full implications of the vote. It may well happen that the EU takes a hard line against the Brits to avoid other countries getting similar ideas and refuses to agree to a good deal (for the UK). I'd fully expect the UK stocks to take a hefty plunge in such a scenario and this could happen weeks or even months after the referendum.
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Old 13.06.2016, 19:23
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

FED meeting/decision(s) is also important. Just saying...
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Old 14.06.2016, 00:35
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

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The GBP has already plummeted quite a lot, and investors are obviously nervous about a Brexit. I think it's just a good case for diversification - holding good quality investments in the UK, US, Europe, Emerging markets......

I think it's just a good time to sit tight and buy into opportunities when they arise, just like any other time. UK business will keep on keepin' on
....
Hold on to yer butts
Thanks. I do understand, and agree with, the "Don't panic!!" approach. I've made plenty of mistakes over 20 years of investing. It's only that I'm approaching retirement that I'm getting more cautious -- while at the same time, realising that some turbulence also presents opportunities. To that end I've stuck an affordable few quid on Brexit with William Hill at 9/4. I think it's worth a punt at that price. I've also switched a couple of funds today from UK/Europe to bonds and gold, and also topped up my Fundsmith holdings as Smith seems to be able to hang on through thick and thin. Other than that, I'm not doing anything drastic.
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Old 14.06.2016, 01:12
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Re: Brexit -- attitude to investments?

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Thanks. I do understand, and agree with, the "Don't panic!!" approach. I've made plenty of mistakes over 20 years of investing. It's only that I'm approaching retirement that I'm getting more cautious -- while at the same time, realising that some turbulence also presents opportunities. To that end I've stuck an affordable few quid on Brexit with William Hill at 9/4. I think it's worth a punt at that price. I've also switched a couple of funds today from UK/Europe to bonds and gold, and also topped up my Fundsmith holdings as Smith seems to be able to hang on through thick and thin. Other than that, I'm not doing anything drastic.
9/4? I think it was something like 4:1 on betfair a couple of weeks ago?
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