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Old 09.08.2016, 17:50
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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I would not put money in Swiss real estate if my goal was to eventually leave (but that's just me).

My choices would be a preferential-tax-regime college fund for the future kids and the nephew(s), or an investment in a fun partnership - a food truck, a bar, etc. - or buying a place in my home country.
Yes. Swiss real estate is incredibly illiquid. Not suitable when one of the requirements is 'option to withdraw'.
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  #42  
Old 10.08.2016, 14:50
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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CS = consumer staples

Last time I checked, Fundsmith was 2/3 US stocks (some 50% CS, 15% tech), plus international (mostly UK) CS (25%) and tech(10%). Compared to RHS (an equal weighted US index fund based the SP500 CS) Fundsmith barely outperforms over five years after currency adjustments (+116% after adjusting for 15% loss by the £/$ vs +110% for RHS).

To me this strongly indicates that so far, Fundsmith is likely to be a case of "in the right sector, at the right time".

Keep in mind that during the previous ten years, US CS were merely net flat, albeit with HUGE downswings - it will be interesting to see what happens once CS are no longer the "sector du jour" everybody wants have their share of.
You actually need to check a little harder, when a fund only has 28 stocks.

Amadeus the largest holding is a Spanish company traded in the US, so appears to be a US based company when it's not.

ADP appears to be a technology company, R&D spending is ZERO, very odd for a tech company, well what they actually do is millions of payslips for different companies each month.

Nestle accounts for 0.021% of the fund, however of Nestle's profit only 2% comes from sales in CH, so Nestöe's . exposure to CH is 0.00042% of the fund.

Fundsmith believes itself to be a global invested fund rather than a mainly US fund, which is why they prefer the world MSCI index.

The fund invests into business's that have predictable income, generally from many millions of tiny transactions every month, the selection process will insure that it out performs CS as a whole.

I first recommended Fundsmith on 10 April 2013, the price is up over 90% since then both in GBP & in Euros, comfortably outperforming the market.

Advice for fund investment in CH


The companies all have predictable earnings & rather simple business's, nothing complicated or clever & profits should be received 100% as CASH in the Bank not profits on paper
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  #43  
Old 10.08.2016, 15:15
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

I did the backtest does not look so bad, but it had 20 drawdown not 3%



Symbols I used might not have been the right ones

30% Stocks : S&P 500 index or/and other US stock indexes
40% Long term bonds: 20 to 25-year US treasuries
15% Intermediate bonds: 7 or 10-year US treasuries
7.5% Gold
7.5% Commodities


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Ray Dalio (google him) was once asked which would be the portfolio that he would leave for his children and grand-children if they knew shit about investments and his answer was:

30% Stocks SPY
40% Long term bonds TLT
15% Intermediate bonds: BWX
7.5% Gold GLD
7.5% Commodities GSG

Some of them did not go back too long in time if we get ETFs that go longer I can rerun it with longer time-frame.

btw I set rebalance at 120 days. could change a bit with short periods

Last edited by profetas; 10.08.2016 at 15:19. Reason: tried to fix img size but failed well
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  #44  
Old 10.08.2016, 16:04
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

interesting- what tool did you use for that backtest pls?
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  #45  
Old 10.08.2016, 16:16
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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interesting- what tool did you use for that backtest pls?
quantopian

profetas also kindly made a chart for the MCR_Fund:

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  #46  
Old 10.08.2016, 16:42
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

Just a disclaimer, backtesting handpicked stocks is not really a good strategy, since you have a strong bias. Hardly you will pick a stock that performed bad last 10 years to do a 10 years back test.

Normally backtests work better with a predefined set of rules like

From SPY take top 5 winners for the week and invest on them.
Or do a Sector rotation algorithm.

http://lucenaresearch.com/ has some interesting ideas. Most of the time the commission will kill any strategy that is too active. Not to say that in the Backtesting framework market effect like (broker trading against you, blackpools, HFT) are not reflected. If you use market order you are exposed to HFT if you use Limits you are exposed to brokers.
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  #47  
Old 10.08.2016, 17:43
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

The OP was also considering the eventuality of leaving Switzerland in a few years.

If I'm not mistaken, most Swiss banks will sack a customer as soon as it moves abroad. This can incur considerable costs if the portfolio has to be either liquidated or migrated to another bank.

Any suggestions for a (non-dodgy) provider catering to international customers which are not billionaires?

-MBP
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  #48  
Old 10.08.2016, 17:53
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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The OP was also considering the eventuality of leaving Switzerland in a few years.

If I'm not mistaken, most Swiss banks will sack a customer as soon as it moves abroad. This can incur considerable costs if the portfolio has to be either liquidated or migrated to another bank.

Any suggestions for a (non-dodgy) provider catering to international customers which are not billionaires?

-MBP
www.fundsmith.eu
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  #49  
Old 10.08.2016, 18:11
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

Invest some of your money in pretty women walking down the street (or their Swiss equivalent).
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  #50  
Old 10.08.2016, 18:16
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

Check out the equity investment funds of Neil Woodford, Nick Train, Giles Hargreaves, Terry Smith who of course has been mentioned here a lot.


Also ETFs - to track market indices (e.g. MSCI World Index) - pay less in fees than an active managed fund.
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  #51  
Old 10.08.2016, 18:22
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Check out the equity investment funds of Neil Woodford, Nick Train, Giles Hargreaves, Terry Smith who of course has been mentioned here a lot.


Also ETFs - to track market indices (e.g. MSCI World Index) - pay less in fees than an active managed fund.
Neil Woodfords fund has performed very badly, he obviously did not bring the important members of the team with him, very sad. I sold 90% of a small investment I made, keeping the 10% as the purchases date matched purchases of Nick Train's funds & Fundsmith.

Nick Train is definitely keeping an eye on.
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  #52  
Old 10.08.2016, 18:53
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Neil Woodfords fund has performed very badly, he obviously did not bring the important members of the team with him, very sad. I sold 90% of a small investment I made, keeping the 10% as the purchases date matched purchases of Nick Train's funds & Fundsmith.

Nick Train is definitely keeping an eye on.
Which fund? His equity income fund has done quite well, beating the equity income index.


Also Giles Hargreave is worth looking at: https://www.trustnet.com/Factsheets/...fundCode=QMF31


I feel Nick Train has a similar strategy to Smith (with his Lindsell Train Global Equity fund)
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  #53  
Old 10.08.2016, 19:19
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Which fund? His equity income fund has done quite well, beating the equity income index.


Also Giles Hargreave is worth looking at: https://www.trustnet.com/Factsheets/...fundCode=QMF31


I feel Nick Train has a similar strategy to Smith (with his Lindsell Train Global Equity fund)
Giles Hargreaves Marlborough UK income 1 year 4.5%
CF Woodward Equity income fund 1 year 5.16%
Lindsal Train Global Equity fund 1 year 19.17%
Fundsmith 1 year 36.03%

To me 5.16% v Fundsmith my benchmark of 36.03 is very poor performance.

I have not commented on Giles Hargreaves for obvious reasons

I retired on 30 September 2014, Fundsmith is up over 50% in both GBP & Euro since then, I am happy that the majority of my net worth is in Fundsmith, plenty of negative comment from the forum over the 3 years I have owned the fund.
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  #54  
Old 10.08.2016, 19:48
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Giles Hargreaves Marlborough UK income 1 year 4.5%
CF Woodward Equity income fund 1 year 5.16%
Lindsal Train Global Equity fund 1 year 19.17%
Fundsmith 1 year 36.03%

To me 5.16% v Fundsmith my benchmark of 36.03 is very poor performance.

I have not commented on Giles Hargreaves for obvious reasons

I retired on 30 September 2014, Fundsmith is up over 50% in both GBP & Euro since then, I am happy that the majority of my net worth is in Fundsmith, plenty of negative comment from the forum over the 3 years I have owned the fund.
some of these mention income. are all of them income funds. otherwise, there would be some difference between income vs accumulating.
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Old 10.08.2016, 19:56
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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some of these mention income. are all of them income funds. otherwise, there would be some difference between income vs accumulating.
Income reinvested I am sad to say.

EDIT I have double checked both the income funds are definitely accumulation units.
I find it sad that fund managers get paid for this type of performance & are acclaimed for beating the index of poor companies.
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  #56  
Old 10.08.2016, 20:20
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Giles Hargreaves Marlborough UK income 1 year 4.5%
CF Woodward Equity income fund 1 year 5.16%
Lindsal Train Global Equity fund 1 year 19.17%
Fundsmith 1 year 36.03%

To me 5.16% v Fundsmith my benchmark of 36.03 is very poor performance.

I have not commented on Giles Hargreaves for obvious reasons

I retired on 30 September 2014, Fundsmith is up over 50% in both GBP & Euro since then, I am happy that the majority of my net worth is in Fundsmith, plenty of negative comment from the forum over the 3 years I have owned the fund.
1 year is much too short to judge the performance of any fund. They also use completely different strategies so in my opinion it's best to benchmark the funds against a relevant index.

E.g. Giles Hargreave is renowned for his investing in small companies (Marlborough Micro Cap for example).
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Old 10.08.2016, 22:02
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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1 year is much too short to judge the performance of any fund. They also use completely different strategies so in my opinion it's best to benchmark the funds against a relevant index.

E.g. Giles Hargreave is renowned for his investing in small companies (Marlborough Micro Cap for example).
Sure a year is a short time, Terry Smith would say it's irrelevant too, just the others don't have much chance to ever catch up.

Lets face it, the only strategy is to make real money. FTSE 100 has done nothing in 15 years, so no need to think it has any relevance to anyone who wants to make money with equities. It's only useful to employees of management companies as their bonus's are based on their performance v the index whilst are mostly sudo tracking the index.

Marlborough Micro Cap under performs Fundsmith on 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years & 5 years.

EDIT
Lindsell Train does beat Fundsmith by 0.4% on a 3 month view, however it's behind at 6 months, 1 year, 3 years & 5 years. 17.72% v 17.68% over 3 months is amazingly close in any case.

Last edited by fatmanfilms; 10.08.2016 at 22:21.
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  #58  
Old 10.08.2016, 22:29
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

so we accept that past performance is a guide to future performance?
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  #59  
Old 10.08.2016, 22:59
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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so we accept that past performance is a guide to future performance?
Investing in high quality business's that have been going on average for 100 years is a good starting point, they survived a couple of bad times. I invested in FS because I liked the concept, not in the least surprised it did as well as it has.

Funny thing is higher risk strategies don't actually give better returns on average, so nothing new if you look at the past.
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Old 11.08.2016, 10:09
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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You actually need to check a little harder, when a fund only has 28 stocks.
Amadeus (assuming I got the right company) is IT thus tech, ADP is tech as well. With that said, there's a reason I said "last time I checked".

Don't get me wrong, Fundsmith does indeed show very nice performance, I also like their low turnover and other concepts they go by, as well as the stuff they publish on their website. But after just five years, and especially with that kind of concentration, there's no way to tell yet if they're smart or just lucky.

Less than twenty years ago anybody saying you can't go wrong with 'net stocks was looking mighty smart. With low beta investments and other supposedly "smart beta" money flowing into the sector and necessarily pushing up valuations, thereby improving performance of existing holders including Fundsmith above the growth justified by the underlying businesses alone, the trend will by necessity run out at some point, probably reverse. This will be the time that separates the wheat from the chaff, the time that tells how much merit your claim of "Terry is different" (reminds me of "this time it's different") really holds.

With that said, independent of whether Terry turns out to be an exception to the rule investing the vast majority in any single non-diversified product is asking for disaster to hit you, and very very hard.
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