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  #61  
Old 11.08.2016, 10:07
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Amadeus (assuming I got the right company) is IT thus tech, ADP is tech as well. With that said, there's a reason I said "last time I checked".

Don't get me wrong, Fundsmith does indeed show very nice performance, I also like their low turnover and other concepts they go by, as well as the stuff they publish on their website. But after just five years, and especially with that kind of concentration, there's no way to tell yet if they're smart or just lucky.

Less than twenty years ago anybody saying you can't go wrong with 'net stocks was looking mighty smart. With low beta investments and other supposedly "smart beta" money flowing into the sector and necessarily pushing up valuations, thereby improving performance of existing holders including Fundsmith above the growth justified by the underlying businesses alone, the trend will by necessity run out at some point, probably reverse. This will be the time that separates the wheat from the chaff, the time that tells how much merit your claim of "Terry is different" (reminds me of "this time it's different") really holds.

With that said, independent of whether Terry turns out to be an exception to the rule investing the vast majority in any single non-diversified product is asking for disaster to hit you, and very very hard.
Increased valuations is an issue of all asset classes, the valuations of the companies Fundsmith invests in is marginally below the market average or was last time I looked.
Identifying the issues you highlight is good, the problem being once identifying the issue is what to do as other investments are less appealing, so diversification for the sake of it, will produce lower returns which is what actually happens to every fund that has over 100 investments in it's portfolio. Worst example is an ISA my fiancée has, £6000 that is split between 20 investment funds all with several hundred investments. After many years it's worth about £6600, which is why she never borrowed to commit more money.

Personally buying a house with a 20 percent deposit exposes you to a far greater risk than I am taking. You have to remember that anyone who has made serious money on the stock market, Goldman Sachs partners at floatation for example had almost all their money in just 1 stock. The Buffet partnership had 40% in just 1 stock.
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  #62  
Old 11.08.2016, 11:34
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

ADP trades at a 27x PE, reported earnings haven't been distorted by some one-off event and are roughly stable/flat. Not sure how that makes it valued at/below market (it's the only one I checked).

Diversification is about reducing portfolio risk. Comparing a fully-owned investment to another one with 5x leverage in a completely different asset class is quite silly.
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Old 11.08.2016, 12:10
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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4. Sponsor an African child and hope s/he grows up to become a lawyer or surgeon.
Kiva.org - invest in people needing microloans. You won't make any interest but you'll change people's lives.
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Old 11.08.2016, 12:16
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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ADP trades at a 27x PE, reported earnings haven't been distorted by some one-off event and are roughly stable/flat. Not sure how that makes it valued at/below market (it's the only one I checked).

Diversification is about reducing portfolio risk. Comparing a fully-owned investment to another one with 5x leverage in a completely different asset class is quite silly.
Buying a house is generally considered safe even when leveraged 5x, yet investing say 50% of net worth in 28 stocks is hugely risky.

Interesting you describe 400% debt as 'fully owned', oh I forgot debt is considered wealth today.

I would love FS to fall 50% then I can reduce my cash on hand, volatility is your friend as an investor.
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Old 11.08.2016, 13:50
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

if you think of property as an internally leveraged fund returning 30%+ per year, then it is not too bad as an investment.

i also agree that investing in stocks is not as risky as people make out. but i think people are just unhappy with the volatility.
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  #66  
Old 11.08.2016, 13:54
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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if you think of property as an internally leveraged fund returning 30%+ per year, then it is not too bad as an investment.

i also agree that investing in stocks is not as risky as people make out. but i think people are just unhappy with the volatility.

With 5 times gearing on a house a 100% loss should be expected once every 10 years on average, only government intervention has prevented this over the last 10 years.

A house priced to a market bid would be worth 0 most of the time, so if anyone really does not like the idea of volatility should only look at the price of their investments once a year or less.
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Old 11.08.2016, 14:41
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

This discussion truly is a gold mine of misinformation.


In a way, it brings to mind Republican presidential candidate Trumps mendacious campaign- how can you have an adult discussion with someone who just isn't listening to anything that anyone else has to say?
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Old 11.08.2016, 14:42
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Another real-estate-oriented idea (I know many people don’t believe in real-estate as investment but in Switzerland it may actually work out quite well):
You can buy a studio in some of the Swiss ski resorts close enough to where you live now (let's say Saas-Fee as it has a fairly good summer ski season and is cheaper than Zermatt) for under CHF 150K. Put your 100K down, take the mortgage for the rest and it will cost you some CHF 450/year in mortgage interest (at 0.9%), plus some 300/month of running costs and rental agency fees, so a total of around 4000/year.
These places can easily be rented out for at least 20 weeks a year and let's assume the average weekly rate of CHF 700 (summer at 500 and winter at 900), which would bring in CHF 14K/year. So you’re earning 10K/year, minus your income tax on this (can be 35% in Vaud, depending on your tax bracket), which translates to some 7-8% annual return on your 100K with the rather low risk factor.
Since the mortgage is actually the lowest part of the cost you could put down just 35% of the property value in cash and take the rest as mortgage and be even better off (50K down, mortgage 100K = 900/year interest, total cost 4500/year, income still 14K so even a higher rate of return on your 50K investment)
Plus, you and your wife have a place in the mountains barely two hours drive from Lausanne whenever you feel like it.

Risk: Climate change.
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Old 11.08.2016, 15:15
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Interesting you describe 400% debt as 'fully owned'
But do I? Why then isn't that fully owned placed last?
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A house priced to a market bid would be worth 0 most of the time, so if anyone really does not like the idea of volatility should only look at the price of their investments once a year or less.
If you stop reading the newspaper, does all that stuff they (used to) report on stop happening?
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Old 11.08.2016, 15:21
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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With 5 times gearing on a house a 100% loss should be expected once every 10 years on average, only government intervention has prevented this over the last 10 years.

A house priced to a market bid would be worth 0 most of the time, so if anyone really does not like the idea of volatility should only look at the price of their investments once a year or less.
Well, I think if you look at it, your assumptions are not true as people generally do not have 100% losses every 10 years. Also, houses do not usually sell for 0.

I think you have a very warped perspective on property that is not really in line with reality!
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Old 11.08.2016, 16:24
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Well, I think if you look at it, your assumptions are not true as people generally do not have 100% losses every 10 years. Also, houses do not usually sell for 0.

I think you have a very warped perspective on property that is not really in line with reality!
Many people had houses re possessed in London in the 1970's, 1980's & 1990's. Negative equity was common, so people did indeed loose 100% of their investment on home ownership.

It's no more of a warped reality of value than a second by second quote of stocks that occur whether or not you wish to sell.

Your unlikely to sell your house for 0, the same is true for stocks. A valuation is only an opinion, a stock quote is an offer for a limited no of shares, not necessarily your entire holding, if you offer to sell the price will fall, if you offer to buy a large holding the price will rise. This is very apparent if you trade in small companies where spreads can be 20% on a $10,000 transaction, let alone a $100,000 transaction.

EDIT,
Plenty of UK property funds currently suspended so 'investors' can't cash in any of their holdings..... at any price until at least 2017 in Aviva's case
From yesterday http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/be681ec2-5...#axzz4H2E5AXo2

Last edited by fatmanfilms; 11.08.2016 at 16:45.
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Old 11.08.2016, 16:42
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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I did the backtest does not look so bad, but it had 20 drawdown not 3%



Symbols I used might not have been the right ones

30% Stocks : S&P 500 index or/and other US stock indexes
40% Long term bonds: 20 to 25-year US treasuries
15% Intermediate bonds: 7 or 10-year US treasuries
7.5% Gold
7.5% Commodities
Nice, but you are committing two key mistakes:

First of all, you are misunderstanding MAX DRAWDOWN with MAX DOWN YEAR. The max drawdown happened somewhere in 2008, but that portfolio would recover to a point where the max down year, 2008 itself, would be just -3,9%.

Second, you are back-testing for a small period (less then 9 years). Such a small period does not capture the effect of economic cycles. For example, in the USA, from 1986 to 2016, you had periods of high inflation, deflation, high interest rates, low interest rates, high oil price, etc. Therefore, if you are building a passive portfolio, backtesting for just 9 years is not enough.
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Old 11.08.2016, 17:03
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Many people had houses re possessed in London in the 1970's, 1980's & 1990's. Negative equity was common, so people did indeed loose 100% of their investment on home ownership.

It's no more of a warped reality of value than a second by second quote of stocks that occur whether or not you wish to sell.

Your unlikely to sell your house for 0, the same is true for stocks. A valuation is only an opinion, a stock quote is an offer for a limited no of shares, not necessarily your entire holding, if you offer to sell the price will fall, if you offer to buy a large holding the price will rise. This is very apparent if you trade in small companies where spreads can be 20% on a $10,000 transaction, let alone a $100,000 transaction.

EDIT,
Plenty of UK property funds currently suspended so 'investors' can't cash in any of their holdings..... at any price until at least 2017 in Aviva's case
From yesterday http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/be681ec2-5...#axzz4H2E5AXo2
A tiny fraction were repossessed. Most can ride through the dips:

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Old 11.08.2016, 21:17
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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A tiny fraction were repossessed. Most can ride through the dips:

The 2 property crashes in the 1970's were far more ferocious, remember building societies could only lend money that depositors had given them, mortgage famine until the early 1980's when things changed big time with regard to what you could borrow. Of course the banks have been bailed out once, not sure if the taxpayer will bother next time, which could be just around the corner.

No reason for the taxpayer to pick up losses, it's very sad they did.

Depositors have to realise cash deposits are not ZERO risk, as once you have given the Bank your money it belongs to the Bank & not you. Even one of the moderators of the forum, who is relatively money 'savy' did not understand the concept that a deposit is just a liability on the balance sheet of a bank.
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Old 11.08.2016, 23:51
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

see attached data.
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Old 12.08.2016, 00:21
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

looking into fundsmith on some of your recommendations... I'm a bit uneasy to go with this, them having zero representation in Switzerland. It also seems that most of you are UK residents, so this is your "home turf". Would it also be suitable for someone not residing in the UK? What's the currency base?
Sorry for n00b questions.

I'm trying to diversify my relatively small portfolio between cash, hand-picked (mostly tech) stocks, stock funds and real estate (funds). I guess this FS deal could be having a slot if it's viable for non-UK residents.
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Old 12.08.2016, 09:18
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

user137, FS trades in £ but the majority of its holdings (some 60%, see semi-annual reports under the documents section) are quoted in USD; in most cases that's also the business currency, ie the currency that defines your risk. It's probably best for you to ask FS themselves about the ways to invest in them.

With that said, most Swiss stocks get a significant share of their revenues abroad, inherently giving you exposure (massive in some cases) to other countries/currencies. For instance Roche currently generates some 40% of revenue in the US, and probably a larger share still of its earnings as the US are more profitable than other areas.
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Old 12.08.2016, 09:32
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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user137, FS trades in £ but the majority of its holdings (some 60%, see semi-annual reports under the documents section) are quoted in USD; in most cases that's also the business currency, ie the currency that defines your risk. It's probably best for you to ask FS themselves about the ways to invest in them.

With that said, most Swiss stocks get a significant share of their revenues abroad, inherently giving you exposure (massive in some cases) to other countries/currencies. For instance Roche currently generates some 40% of revenue in the US, and probably a larger share still of its earnings as the US are more profitable than other areas.
I understand the underlying currency risk, but that is there in most equity instruments. My problem is, if it trades in pounds I need a double conversion, which I'd like to avoid, especially with the Brexit vote and the uncertainty that follows. Also, having a pound-based statistic can be misleading as the pound just lost about 20% to the CHF in the last months (so if the funds gained 15%, I'd still be in the red zone, right?).

I found a CHF denominated FS fund, I now just need to find a place to book them.
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Old 12.08.2016, 09:49
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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I understand the underlying currency risk, but that is there in most equity instruments. My problem is, if it trades in pounds I need a double conversion, which I'd like to avoid, especially with the Brexit vote and the uncertainty that follows. Also, having a pound-based statistic can be misleading as the pound just lost about 20% to the CHF in the last months (so if the funds gained 15%, I'd still be in the red zone, right?).

I found a CHF denominated FS fund, I now just need to find a place to book them.
they have a EUR feeder fund. also CHF, but I think the minimum CHF investment is 5 million or something around that.

i just converted to GBP and bought the GBP T fund.
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Old 12.08.2016, 10:12
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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I understand the underlying currency risk, but that is there in most equity instruments. My problem is, if it trades in pounds I need a double conversion, which I'd like to avoid, especially with the Brexit vote and the uncertainty that follows. Also, having a pound-based statistic can be misleading as the pound just lost about 20% to the CHF in the last months (so if the funds gained 15%, I'd still be in the red zone, right?).

I found a CHF denominated FS fund, I now just need to find a place to book them.
The CHF units are up in CHF terms on 1 month, 3 Months, 1 Year, 3 years & 5 years. Minimum investment is CHF 6 million, being the feeder fund charges are slightly higher than the UK fund denominated in £. The Euro feeder fund accepts investments of 2000 euro.

At the AGM Terry Smith was asked what he was doing as a precaution against a BREXIT vote, he said nothing at all as the companies he invested in would do very well regardless of outcome. Britain had fought to be independent for 1000 years, he was not bothered one way or other. Looks like he judged the situation well.

For currency risk, if the £ halves then the profits in £ will be significantly higher so the share price will balance out the currency risk. The same thing happened in reverse when Switzerland dropped the peg to the EURO, as Swiss companies earn very little in CHF. (Nestle 2% for example). The only real currency risk is holding cash, as Brit's going on holiday to Europe have found out, although the cost of the holiday is about the same as 3 years ago so nothing to loose sleep about.
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