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Old 09.08.2016, 12:15
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What to do with 100k CHF?

Dear all,
Any ideas about best saving/investment opportunities with 100,000 francs?

Low-risk ideas please + preferably option to withdraw
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Old 09.08.2016, 12:20
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

Use it as a downpayment for residential property?
You mentioned in another thread you may be looking at buying.
With mortgage rates so low you'll save a lot living in your own place compared to renting.
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Old 09.08.2016, 12:23
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Use it as a downpayment for residential property?
You mentioned in another thread you may be looking at buying.
With mortgage rates so low you'll save a lot living in your own place compared to renting.
Really?
Is it preferable to buy? What if we leave Switzerland, say, 5 years after buying? We'll lose a lot?

And just for the sake of question, assume our money is currently not enough for the house want.
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Old 09.08.2016, 12:33
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

You don't lose anything if you leave after 5 years as you'd be able to easily rent out the place for a nice profit, especially in the Lausanne area.
If you'd only be buying something more expensive for which 100K is not sufficient as the downpayment then it's a different story.
Still, compare to what you have today and not to what you'd ideally want. Start from where you live currently and how much it costs you and then see if a similar place would fit the budget of 500K (your 100K + 400K mortgage - in Lausanne this would probably be a smallish 2-bedroom apt)
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Old 09.08.2016, 12:53
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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You don't lose anything if you leave after 5 years as you'd be able to easily rent out the place for a nice profit, especially in the Lausanne area.
If you'd only be buying something more expensive for which 100K is not sufficient as the downpayment then it's a different story.
Still, compare to what you have today and not to what you'd ideally want. Start from where you live currently and how much it costs you and then see if a similar place would fit the budget of 500K (your 100K + 400K mortgage - in Lausanne this would probably be a smallish 2-bedroom apt)
Remember that any debt is real, however the future value of property is unknown, the property could easily be worth significantly less in 5 years time than today. Swiss Banks will ask for an increased deposit if prices fall.
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Old 09.08.2016, 12:54
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

Just wait for Devere to call you, they will help you invest it.
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Old 09.08.2016, 12:58
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

Put it in your pension ? Depending on circumstances you can probably write off the 100k against your income for this year's tax return... probably save a lot in next year's tax bill.
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Old 09.08.2016, 16:30
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Dear all,
Any ideas about best saving/investment opportunities with 100,000 francs?

Low-risk ideas please + preferably option to withdraw
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Just wait for Devere to call you, they will help you invest it.
You should have stated the amount of CHF99.99k in your opening post as the diversion, so that potential cold calling financial advisor will omit it given less than 6-digit amount to be dealt with by him.

You can always donate it (or portion of it) to the charity or sponsor shipment of c.a. 500kg of tennis equipment to Johannesburg. Last quote I got was CHF1650 and we are looking for more affordable way to donate in RSA.
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Old 09.08.2016, 14:04
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Dear all,
Any ideas about best saving/investment opportunities with 100,000 francs?

Low-risk ideas please + preferably option to withdraw
Invest in me, I can guarantee 100% satisfaction (of me, not you). PM with account number sent.
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Old 09.08.2016, 14:33
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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Dear all,
Any ideas about best saving/investment opportunities with 100,000 francs?

Low-risk ideas please + preferably option to withdraw
What's your time horizon?

Ray Dalio (google him) was once asked which would be the portfolio that he would leave for his children and grand-children if they knew shit about investments and his answer was:

30% Stocks : S&P 500 index or/and other US stock indexes
40% Long term bonds: 20 to 25-year US treasuries
15% Intermediate bonds: 7 or 10-year US treasuries
7.5% Gold
7.5% Commodities

If you back test this portfolio for the last 30 years or so, it would give you an average return of around 10% per year, you would have lost money just in 3 years out of 30, and the worst down year would have been -3.93% (in 2008).

Don't be fooled by supposed financial gurus and, most importantly, by impressive short term gains from newly set up investment funds. One, two or even 5 years of good past returns are not proof that an investment manager is indeed skilled or have just been lucky.
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Old 09.08.2016, 14:53
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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What's your time horizon?

Ray Dalio (google him) was once asked which would be the portfolio that he would leave for his children and grand-children if they knew shit about investments and his answer was:

30% Stocks : S&P 500 index or/and other US stock indexes
40% Long term bonds: 20 to 25-year US treasuries
15% Intermediate bonds: 7 or 10-year US treasuries
7.5% Gold
7.5% Commodities
.
Personally I would not be going long US Treasuries right now, especially with such a large % of portfolio.
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Old 09.08.2016, 14:54
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

Is Fundsmith the new Devere?

Should I be worried if they call me?
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Old 10.08.2016, 14:15
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

I did the backtest does not look so bad, but it had 20 drawdown not 3%



Symbols I used might not have been the right ones

30% Stocks : S&P 500 index or/and other US stock indexes
40% Long term bonds: 20 to 25-year US treasuries
15% Intermediate bonds: 7 or 10-year US treasuries
7.5% Gold
7.5% Commodities


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Ray Dalio (google him) was once asked which would be the portfolio that he would leave for his children and grand-children if they knew shit about investments and his answer was:

30% Stocks SPY
40% Long term bonds TLT
15% Intermediate bonds: BWX
7.5% Gold GLD
7.5% Commodities GSG

Some of them did not go back too long in time if we get ETFs that go longer I can rerun it with longer time-frame.

btw I set rebalance at 120 days. could change a bit with short periods

Last edited by profetas; 10.08.2016 at 14:19. Reason: tried to fix img size but failed well
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Old 10.08.2016, 15:04
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

interesting- what tool did you use for that backtest pls?
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Old 10.08.2016, 15:16
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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interesting- what tool did you use for that backtest pls?
quantopian

profetas also kindly made a chart for the MCR_Fund:

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Old 10.08.2016, 15:42
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

Just a disclaimer, backtesting handpicked stocks is not really a good strategy, since you have a strong bias. Hardly you will pick a stock that performed bad last 10 years to do a 10 years back test.

Normally backtests work better with a predefined set of rules like

From SPY take top 5 winners for the week and invest on them.
Or do a Sector rotation algorithm.

http://lucenaresearch.com/ has some interesting ideas. Most of the time the commission will kill any strategy that is too active. Not to say that in the Backtesting framework market effect like (broker trading against you, blackpools, HFT) are not reflected. If you use market order you are exposed to HFT if you use Limits you are exposed to brokers.
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Old 11.08.2016, 16:42
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Re: What to do with 100k CHF?

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I did the backtest does not look so bad, but it had 20 drawdown not 3%



Symbols I used might not have been the right ones

30% Stocks : S&P 500 index or/and other US stock indexes
40% Long term bonds: 20 to 25-year US treasuries
15% Intermediate bonds: 7 or 10-year US treasuries
7.5% Gold
7.5% Commodities
Nice, but you are committing two key mistakes:

First of all, you are misunderstanding MAX DRAWDOWN with MAX DOWN YEAR. The max drawdown happened somewhere in 2008, but that portfolio would recover to a point where the max down year, 2008 itself, would be just -3,9%.

Second, you are back-testing for a small period (less then 9 years). Such a small period does not capture the effect of economic cycles. For example, in the USA, from 1986 to 2016, you had periods of high inflation, deflation, high interest rates, low interest rates, high oil price, etc. Therefore, if you are building a passive portfolio, backtesting for just 9 years is not enough.
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