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  #61  
Old 08.10.2016, 10:17
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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So just before Y2K... I was back in London on 4 figures a day back then. You probably picked just about the worst date to compare to. The UK rates have changed a lot since then also.
So rates in London were considerably higher than in Switzerland at the time! It was true in many fields.
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  #62  
Old 08.10.2016, 10:34
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Nationalism is a sick thing.
Which is why the EU want to now have an army.
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  #63  
Old 08.10.2016, 13:29
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

Anyone looked into airfares in GBP?
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  #64  
Old 08.10.2016, 13:35
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Anyone looked into airfares in GBP?
What does that even mean? Just use a UK flight search engine.
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  #65  
Old 08.10.2016, 14:53
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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.....If anything I laughed at the feckless ones who thought "out" would have no immediate, transitional, or long term negative effects
i don't know anyone who said that. It's obvious that Brexit will have many consequences -- some positive, some negative, some immediate, some long-term. I'm not sure why, or how, anyone would claim otherwise. As a Leave voter myself, I've said a hundred times that we won't know the true consequences of Brexit for many years. In fact, you could say that we will never know, because the world would be a different place if we'd stayed in the EU, so no comparison is possible.

But here's the thing -- as (mostly) business people here on this forum, we know full well that when you experience a big change, or some sort of potential threat, the last thing to do is to wring your hands and weep and wail for any length of time. No, what we do is look at where we are, where we want to be, and work out a plan that will get us there, and one that will take into account the interests of those whose cooperation we need. I genuinely believe that nothing is impossible here, and that Brexit can be a win-win for the UK and the EU.

The biggest threat to a happy outcome is human frailty, particularly that exposed by politics and ideology. There are many EU politicians and back-office eurocrats who have invested an entire career in the vision of a federal European state. For reasons I understand, but despise, many of them will not be sufficiently mature to accept a dent in their ideology. The lazy way to respond is to try to make life hard for the UK. It's a despicable position, but that's human nature. In a year that has major French and German elections, the chest-beating and willy-waving will only intensify.

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Membership in the EU didn't affect the distribution of consequences as far as I can tell.
EU membership since 2004, which has seen millions of EU citizens from low-wage economies, move to the UK to work, has greatly disadvantaged the lower paid, less educated in the UK, and this is the group that voted in large numbers to leave the EU.

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Post Brexit politicians will not be able to stand aside and imply or let people think that their woes are the result of some outside group interfering in the nation's affairs........Hopefully Brexit will turn out to reduce the prevalence of positions which start from "We are unhappy and it is someone else's fault, and there is nothing we can do about it without extreme measures."
Quite right, and in fact this was a major part of the Leave campaign's platform. It was summed up by the slogan, "Let's take back control". The slogan is much derided, but as you rightly say, it's a key consequence of Brexit. I would call this a great benefit, while others regard it as a bad thing. Let's wait and see.

One other thing -- you mention "nationalism" a few times which is a dangerous word that means different things to different people. There's negative nationalism and racism, which are obviously bad. Then there is self-confident nationalism, as seen (arguably) in the Scottish and Welsh Nationalist parties, and among enlightened Brexit voters. I do love Britain, and want to see it do well. I also love Europe and want it to thrive. Being patriotic and proud of your heritage doesn't HAVE to mean hating others, being xenophobic, racist, and so on.
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  #66  
Old 08.10.2016, 15:02
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

I was feeling really despondent about having to visit England next spring, but maybe it won't be so bad after all!

Every cloud...
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  #67  
Old 08.10.2016, 15:52
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

Currently, I think political interests trump economic ones.

My guess is that there will be no meaningful deal right until the 2 year deadline until:

- both sides panic and agree a temporary free trade deal to buy time for further talks (my bet)
- talks fail in acrimony and there is a full hard break
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  #68  
Old 08.10.2016, 16:08
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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i don't know anyone who said that. It's obvious that Brexit will have many consequences -- some positive, some negative, some immediate, some long-term. I'm not sure why, or how, anyone would claim otherwise. As a Leave voter myself, I've said a hundred times that we won't know the true consequences of Brexit for many years. In fact, you could say that we will never know, because the world would be a different place if we'd stayed in the EU, so no comparison is possible.

But here's the thing -- as (mostly) business people here on this forum, we know full well that when you experience a big change, or some sort of potential threat, the last thing to do is to wring your hands and weep and wail for any length of time. No, what we do is look at where we are, where we want to be, and work out a plan that will get us there, and one that will take into account the interests of those whose cooperation we need. I genuinely believe that nothing is impossible here, and that Brexit can be a win-win for the UK and the EU.

The biggest threat to a happy outcome is human frailty, particularly that exposed by politics and ideology. There are many EU politicians and back-office eurocrats who have invested an entire career in the vision of a federal European state. For reasons I understand, but despise, many of them will not be sufficiently mature to accept a dent in their ideology. The lazy way to respond is to try to make life hard for the UK. It's a despicable position, but that's human nature. In a year that has major French and German elections, the chest-beating and willy-waving will only intensify.



EU membership since 2004, which has seen millions of EU citizens from low-wage economies, move to the UK to work, has greatly disadvantaged the lower paid, less educated in the UK, and this is the group that voted in large numbers to leave the EU.



Quite right, and in fact this was a major part of the Leave campaign's platform. It was summed up by the slogan, "Let's take back control". The slogan is much derided, but as you rightly say, it's a key consequence of Brexit. I would call this a great benefit, while others regard it as a bad thing. Let's wait and see.

One other thing -- you mention "nationalism" a few times which is a dangerous word that means different things to different people. There's negative nationalism and racism, which are obviously bad. Then there is self-confident nationalism, as seen (arguably) in the Scottish and Welsh Nationalist parties, and among enlightened Brexit voters. I do love Britain, and want to see it do well. I also love Europe and want it to thrive. Being patriotic and proud of your heritage doesn't HAVE to mean hating others, being xenophobic, racist, and so on.
Strange that many people describe Remainers as moaners while the most of the moaning here is from Leavers complaining the EU are going to be nasty to us.

Obviously in any Brexit negotiation the EU will try to get the best position for themselves; it is naive to imagine otherwise.

From the next President of the Council of Europe "UK will be treated 'like Greece' and get a tough deal during Brexit talks.
Joseph Muscat expects UK to be left with 'fair' but 'inferior deal' after negotiations"

'fair' but 'inferior' is a reasonable expectation unlike "It's a despicable position" which is emotional and not factual

BTW there are not millions of EU citizens from low-wage economies in the UK; take a look at the UK Govt. published figures.
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  #69  
Old 08.10.2016, 16:11
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Strange that many people describe Remainers as moaners while the most of the moaning here is from Leavers complaining the EU are going to be nasty to us.



Obviously in any Brexit negotiation the EU will try to get the best position for themselves; it is naive to imagine otherwise.



From the next President of the Council of Europe "UK will be treated 'like Greece' and get a tough deal during Brexit talks.

Joseph Muscat expects UK to be left with 'fair' but 'inferior deal' after negotiations"



'fair' but 'inferior' is a reasonable expectation unlike "It's a despicable position" which is emotional and not factual



BTW there are not millions of EU citizens from low-wage economies in the UK; take a look at the UK Govt. published figures.


The best deal for the EU would be a free trade deal....... Anyway back to politics
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  #70  
Old 08.10.2016, 16:26
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Currently, I think political interests trump economic ones.

My guess is that there will be no meaningful deal right until the 2 year deadline until:

- both sides panic and agree a temporary free trade deal to buy time for further talks (my bet)
- talks fail in acrimony and there is a full hard break
The 2 year deadline is to agree the terms of the "divorce"; there is no common view as to whether that includes discussions on free trade or will "simply" concentrate on untangling the various legal relationships, finances, planning, etc.
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  #71  
Old 08.10.2016, 16:45
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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The 2 year deadline is to agree the terms of the "divorce"; there is no common view as to whether that includes discussions on free trade or will "simply" concentrate on untangling the various legal relationships, finances, planning, etc.
no. the 2 years is simply the time when which the relevant treaties will automatically cease to apply unless the UK and European Council unanimously decide to extend.

what they discuss or don't discuss is between the UK and the EU.

so unless they agree to extend, they have to discuss everything within these 2 years or let them fall away.
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  #72  
Old 08.10.2016, 17:32
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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no. the 2 years is simply the time when which the relevant treaties will automatically cease to apply unless the UK and European Council unanimously decide to extend.

what they discuss or don't discuss is between the UK and the EU.

so unless they agree to extend, they have to discuss everything within these 2 years or let them fall away.
Any EU deals need ratification by every EU country and the European Parliament which would anyway extend the process beyond the two-year limit set by Article 50.

Do you have a source for saying that an EU trade deal has to be agreed within these two years?
The most optimistic scenario is for an interim extension of the existing arrangement but if that is continued without change then it would include unwelcome clauses like FMOP and payments to the EU.

Britain is already a member of the WTO so this looks like an easy option for trade.
But its tariff, quota and subsidy rules are fixed by its EU membership.

Post-Brexit UK needs terms of its own, and they have to be negotiated and approved by all 163 other WTO members, a process that the WTO’s director-general has called “tortuous”.
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  #73  
Old 08.10.2016, 18:06
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

>Do you have a source for saying that an EU trade deal has to be agreed within these two years?

yes, it's in my post that you quoted. just read it carefully.

>Post-Brexit UK needs terms of its own, and they have to be negotiated and approved by all 163 other WTO members, a process that the WTO’s director-general has called “tortuous”.

indeed. the UK was a founding member of GATT and the WTO and to find itself in this position shows not only the folly of surrendering key economic competences to the EU, but also the neglect and naivety of recent governments when it comes to these key elements of statehood. you'd have hoped that the mandarins of whitehall would have secured britain's position, but i suspect many succumbed to ideological capture by the siren call of the EU.
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  #74  
Old 08.10.2016, 18:19
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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>Do you have a source for saying that an EU trade deal has to be agreed within these two years?

yes, it's in my post that you quoted. just read it carefully.
No, I meant a credible source.

I have read EU statements that said trade deals discussions would only start after Brexit but can't find them now.
I will assume this is correct unless you can prove otherwise.
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  #75  
Old 08.10.2016, 18:21
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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>Do you have a source for saying that an EU trade deal has to be agreed within these two years?

yes, it's in my post that you quoted. just read it carefully.

>Post-Brexit UK needs terms of its own, and they have to be negotiated and approved by all 163 other WTO members, a process that the WTO’s director-general has called “tortuous”.

indeed. the UK was a founding member of GATT and the WTO and to find itself in this position shows not only the folly of surrendering key economic competences to the EU, but also the neglect and naivety of recent governments when it comes to these key elements of statehood. you'd have hoped that the mandarins of whitehall would have secured britain's position, but i suspect many succumbed to ideological capture by the siren call of the EU.
"I suspect many succumbed to ideological capture by the siren call of the EU." Very romantic but I suspect they were just lazy sods who were happy for somebody else to do the work.
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  #76  
Old 08.10.2016, 18:30
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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No, I meant a credible source.

I have read EU statements that said trade deals discussions would only start after Brexit but can't find them now.
I will assume this is correct unless you can prove otherwise.
ok. i walk you though it:

what does art 50(3) say?
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Old 08.10.2016, 18:34
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Strange that many people describe Remainers as moaners while the most of the moaning here is from Leavers complaining the EU are going to be nasty to us.

Obviously in any Brexit negotiation the EU will try to get the best position for themselves; it is naive to imagine otherwise.

From the next President of the Council of Europe "UK will be treated 'like Greece' and get a tough deal during Brexit talks.
Joseph Muscat expects UK to be left with 'fair' but 'inferior deal' after negotiations"

'fair' but 'inferior' is a reasonable expectation unlike "It's a despicable position" which is emotional and not factual

BTW there are not millions of EU citizens from low-wage economies in the UK; take a look at the UK Govt. published figures.
Don't misquote me please. I don't think it's wrong for them to try to get the best deal they can. What I think is "despicable" is the speeches in which they talk about the need to inflict pain on the other side, "pour encourager les autres". Some openly say that it's important for the UK to be seen to suffer in order to prevent others from 'getting ideas' about leaving the EU. That is reprehensible, and a long way from the understandable "we want the EU to emerge with a good deal".
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  #78  
Old 08.10.2016, 18:37
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Don't misquote me please. I don't think it's wrong for them to try to get the best deal they can. What I think is "despicable" is the speeches in which they talk about the need to inflict pain on the other side, "pour encourager les autres". Some openly say that it's important for the UK to be seen to suffer in order to prevent others from 'getting ideas' about leaving the EU. That is reprehensible, and a long way from the understandable "we want the EU to emerge with a good deal".
when there are no carrots available, you have to use a stick instead.
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Old 08.10.2016, 18:53
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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ok. i walk you though it:

what does art 50(3) say?
art 50(3) says all treaties will be cancelled; nothing about negotiating new treaties.

Currently there is no free trade agreement between the EU and the UK; there is the Single European Act which establishes not only the single market but it established standards for workers’ health and safety, set up European research and technology development strategies, European citizenship and created policies designed to protect the environment.
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Old 10.10.2016, 14:01
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Well thats about the size of the British Automobile industry these days a few small factories building replacement parts for peoples old Austin Healys or Robin Reliants.
Who told you that? The UK has a lot of car factories and produce more cars than Italy.
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