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  #81  
Old 10.10.2016, 14:26
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

Are they British car manufacturers? How long will they stay if they have to pay tariffs to export to Europe?
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  #82  
Old 10.10.2016, 14:28
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Are they British car manufacturers? How long will they stay if they have to pay tariffs to export to Europe?
With 20% plus fall in the £, a 10% tariff is a winner. German manufactures have a 30% loss to absorb.
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  #83  
Old 10.10.2016, 14:51
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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With 20% plus fall in the £, a 10% tariff is a winner. German manufactures have a 30% loss to absorb.
Assuming the cars manufactured in UK require no imported parts which will have both higher costs due to currencies and tariffs and maybe even face quotas?
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  #84  
Old 10.10.2016, 14:54
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Assuming the cars manufactured in UK require no imported parts which will have both higher costs due to currencies and tariffs and maybe even face quotas?
Source the parts elsewhere...... Lucas is still in business.
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  #85  
Old 10.10.2016, 15:37
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

holly crap

Its shocking that people really have no clue whats manufactured in the uk, yes, the UK has some huge car plants

Range Rover
Jaguar
Honda
Toyota
Ford
vauxhall
nissan
morgan
etc etc

all employ thousands of people, all source from local companies who employ tens of thousands of people, and all export most of there output.
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  #86  
Old 10.10.2016, 15:38
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Source the parts elsewhere...... Lucas is still in business.
Ah, the Prince of Darkness!!

Bit more fundamental, Nissan, for example, make no diesel engines in the UK.

For Toyota hybrid the battery, inverter, transaxles come in from Japan also for other models importing automatic transmissions from Japan, manual transmissions from Poland, medium-sized diesels from Poland (and some Euro 6 compliant diesels come from BMW.
Toyota also stated that all their parts supply from UK suppliers are priced in euros.
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  #87  
Old 10.10.2016, 15:46
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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holly crap

Its shocking that people really have no clue whats manufactured in the uk, yes, the UK has some huge car plants

Range Rover
Jaguar
Honda
Toyota
Ford
vauxhall
nissan
morgan
etc etc

all employ thousands of people, all source from local companies who employ tens of thousands of people, and all export most of there output.
We are all aware of that. My question is, how long will they remain if they have to pay tariffs and are dependent on part imports, etc.










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  #88  
Old 10.10.2016, 15:49
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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We are all aware of that. My question is, how long will they remain if they have to pay tariffs and are dependent on part imports, etc.
well nissan for one had already hinted they'll be off if ukgov doesn't make up the shortfall.

I'd expect they have all made plans to leave
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  #89  
Old 10.10.2016, 15:53
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Vauxhall (GM), JLR, Ford, BMW, Mini, etc- are all foreign owned and are all considering their option in a post Brexit UK.

https://www.ft.com/content/27d7b066-...f-79eb4891c97d

They employ 100s of 1000s, mostly in deprived areas of the UK.
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  #90  
Old 10.10.2016, 16:04
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Vauxhall (GM), JLR, Ford, BMW, Mini, etc- are all foreign owned and are all considering their option in a post Brexit UK.

https://www.ft.com/content/27d7b066-...f-79eb4891c97d

They employ 100s of 1000s, mostly in deprived areas of the UK.

JLR will have to stay (for now), part of the deal tata signed to get the huge bail out money from the gov.
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  #91  
Old 10.10.2016, 16:21
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Vauxhall (GM), JLR, Ford, BMW, Mini, etc- are all foreign owned and are all considering their option in a post Brexit UK.

https://www.ft.com/content/27d7b066-...f-79eb4891c97d

They employ 100s of 1000s, mostly in deprived areas of the UK.
This article is from July though. The stock markets have performed surprisingly well since Brexit and the economy hasn't done as badly as most had expected.

Sure the GBP has lost a lot of value but that has positives for tourism and exports.

I'm not a Brexiter at all but it is where we are so we need to make the best of a bad situation. It's almost as if some people WANT then UK to have a terrible time.
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  #92  
Old 10.10.2016, 17:31
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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We are all aware of that. My question is, how long will they remain if they have to pay tariffs and are dependent on part imports, etc.

The timing of this investment announcement from Tata Steel should have sounded alarms with a few British car manufacturers. Many of us will already know Tata's links to the UK car industry, but I'm pretty sure that they also produce steel and do stress testing for a few other major European marques. I know when I visited the plant a number of years ago, it wasn't just the usual suspects that were having stress testing done there.

http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archive...jmuiden-plant/
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  #93  
Old 10.10.2016, 18:15
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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JLR will have to stay (for now), part of the deal tata signed to get the huge bail out money from the gov.
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The timing of this investment announcement from Tata Steel should have sounded alarms with a few British car manufacturers. Many of us will already know Tata's links to the UK car industry, but I'm pretty sure that they also produce steel and do stress testing for a few other major European marques. I know when I visited the plant a number of years ago, it wasn't just the usual suspects that were having stress testing done there.

http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archive...jmuiden-plant/
Don't forget the negotiations around the Tata steel plant in Port Talbot which has been offered for sale since March along with other Tata plants.

To keep Port Talbot running will run into hundreds of millions
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  #94  
Old 11.10.2016, 09:33
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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My question is, how long will they remain if they have to pay tariffs and are dependent on part imports, etc.
The Japanese have hit the table twice alreay, stating their needs that the UK make sure no changes in tax and trade regimes, standards, etc happen. This happened on the topmost international levels, obviously they consider the issues important. This shouldn't be much of a surprise as tens of billions of investments in the UK are at stake, if not hundreds.

Timeline for departure? Who knows, clearly depends on the circumstances, the bigger the disadvantage the quicker adjustments will happen. Five years perhaps for a bigger car parts factory.
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  #95  
Old 11.10.2016, 09:45
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Don't forget the negotiations around the Tata steel plant in Port Talbot which has been offered for sale since March along with other Tata plants.

To keep Port Talbot running will run into hundreds of millions
TaTa don't produce simple steel for cars, they produce specialist steel

All steels are equal, but some steels are more equal, to coin a phrase !
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  #96  
Old 11.10.2016, 10:49
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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i don't know anyone who said that. It's obvious that Brexit will have many consequences -- some positive, some negative, some immediate, some long-term. I'm not sure why, or how, anyone would claim otherwise.
With the "feckless" remark I was thinking of some of "man on the street" media reports immediately after the vote, and a couple of conversations I have had since with UK suppliers. Anyone who thought that a watershed vote of the nature of Brexit would yield exclusively positive results, and those immediately is, to my mind, feckless, insofar as that isn't how change which the economy, immigration, and the legal system works - even the overthrow of a dictator brings upheaval and discomfort to some.

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As a Leave voter myself, I've said a hundred times that we won't know the true consequences of Brexit for many years. In fact, you could say that we will never know, because the world would be a different place if we'd stayed in the EU, so no comparison is possible.
I think that long term it will be beneficial, but there is no way to tell as there is no paralell Britain (and EU) which voted remain, to which one can compare. It was probably a good bet, but the race isn't over at some point, so that you can collect your winnings, and the act of betting itself influences the race.

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But here's the thing -- as (mostly) business people here on this forum, we know full well that when you experience a big change, or some sort of potential threat, the last thing to do is to wring your hands and weep and wail for any length of time. No, what we do is look at where we are, where we want to be, and work out a plan that will get us there, and one that will take into account the interests of those whose cooperation we need. I genuinely believe that nothing is impossible here, and that Brexit can be a win-win for the UK and the EU.
Indeed. In a very real way, some decision about how to respond to change, even if not perfectly thought through is preferable to the wringing of hands and decrying "somebody did something which affects me, and somebody should do something about it."

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The biggest threat to a happy outcome is human frailty, particularly that exposed by politics and ideology. There are many EU politicians and back-office eurocrats who have invested an entire career in the vision of a federal European state. For reasons I understand, but despise, many of them will not be sufficiently mature to accept a dent in their ideology. The lazy way to respond is to try to make life hard for the UK. It's a despicable position, but that's human nature. In a year that has major French and German elections, the chest-beating and willy-waving will only intensify.
Yes. I don't think a round of tit for tat would benefit anyone. It may happen, but I hope that won't become the dominant tone.

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EU membership since 2004, which has seen millions of EU citizens from low-wage economies, move to the UK to work, has greatly disadvantaged the lower paid, less educated in the UK, and this is the group that voted in large numbers to leave the EU.
If there is one single aspect of the EU which I see as a problem it is uncontrolled economic migration. At the top income or skill level it is primarily convenient, and beneficial, at the bottom of the food chain it just doesn't seem to be universally good.

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Quite right, and in fact this was a major part of the Leave campaign's platform. It was summed up by the slogan, "Let's take back control". The slogan is much derided, but as you rightly say, it's a key consequence of Brexit. I would call this a great benefit, while others regard it as a bad thing. Let's wait and see.
When "Let's take back control" means "Self determination is better, even if we make a mistake" then I'm all for it. Much of what was presented during the campaign had at least a hint of "We're in an abusive relationship, and someone needs to punish the abuser". If you are stuck in abusive relationship, then what you need to do is leave, then you can take control of your own life. The whole retributive justice moment, post hoc, doesn't actually bring much benefit to anyone, in my opinion. In a very real way, it doesn't matter now if the EU was good or bad for Britain while it is/was a member, the question is how will Britain look after itself, and how the relationship with the EX work.


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One other thing -- you mention "nationalism" a few times which is a dangerous word that means different things to different people. There's negative nationalism and racism, which are obviously bad. Then there is self-confident nationalism, as seen (arguably) in the Scottish and Welsh Nationalist parties, and among enlightened Brexit voters. I do love Britain, and want to see it do well. I also love Europe and want it to thrive. Being patriotic and proud of your heritage doesn't HAVE to mean hating others, being xenophobic, racist, and so on.
I'm Canadian... sorry. I see nothing wrong with nationhood or nationalism as long as it doesn't become an anchor point for hate, or the blind presumption that "the others" are somehow in need of correction, guidance, or punishment., or that any nation which is different is somehow "wrong". We even tolerate Hockey teams and donut shops in oddest of places in other nations. "Nationalism", as the hanging together, the recognition, and acceptance, of a national identity isn't necessarily bad - it can go wrong, but then, so can the making of beer.
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  #97  
Old 11.10.2016, 11:10
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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This article is from July though. The stock markets have performed surprisingly well since Brexit and the economy hasn't done as badly as most had expected.
As has been repeatedly stated, Brexit hasn't actually happened (yet), nor even Article 50 triggered so it is extremely previous to expect to see anything significant in the economy. My feeling for the first weeks after the vote is that the markets were in a form of denial or at least were assuming continued access to the single market.

Now that is looking less likely you can see the impact in the currency markets. It is very much the crash of the GBP that is keeping the London stock market afloat imo.

Assuming Article 50 is triggered in March it is still going to be a couple of years before you really see the impact on the economy.
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  #98  
Old 11.10.2016, 11:13
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

THE TIMES today (not the Guardian ) - published leaked Government papers saying that hard Brexit (and a soft one is not really on the cards)- will probably cost the UK 66 billion a year, and drop GDP bx 9.5 %.
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  #99  
Old 11.10.2016, 11:13
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

Hmm. Let's see, I'm going to negotiate with the other side, do I go around beforehand saying "yes, i must stay in the single market at any cost it's vital to the economy" or do i say "hard brexit is not so bad, i'm cool with that"?
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  #100  
Old 11.10.2016, 11:15
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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I'm Canadian... sorry. I see nothing wrong with nationhood or nationalism as long as it doesn't become an anchor point for hate, or the blind presumption that "the others" are somehow in need of correction, guidance, or punishment., or that any nation which is different is somehow "wrong". We even tolerate Hockey teams and donut shops in oddest of places in other nations. "Nationalism", as the hanging together, the recognition, and acceptance, of a national identity isn't necessarily bad - it can go wrong, but then, so can the making of beer.
How many wars have been caused and people killed by nationalism? Just glance at history and you quickly realise exactly what is wrong with it and how often it does go bad.
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