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  #101  
Old 11.10.2016, 12:24
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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How many wars have been caused and people killed by nationalism? Just glance at history and you quickly realise exactly what is wrong with it and how often it does go bad.
You are right, "bad" nationalism has caused many deaths. How many people died unnecessarily from bleedings, or infection until medicine figured out how to distinguish between getting it right, and getting it wrong? Perhaps we should use your argument to throw medicine out, as history shows us that no good had come of it.
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  #102  
Old 11.10.2016, 12:32
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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THE TIMES today (not the Guardian ) - published leaked Government papers saying that hard Brexit (and a soft one is not really on the cards)- will probably cost the UK 66 billion a year, and drop GDP bx 9.5 %.
The Times owned by that scumbag Murdoch who owns The Sun who backed Brexit. Whoever the sun backs always wins the election :/
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  #103  
Old 11.10.2016, 12:41
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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You are right, "bad" nationalism has caused many deaths. How many people died unnecessarily from bleedings, or infection until medicine figured out how to distinguish between getting it right, and getting it wrong? Perhaps we should use your argument to throw medicine out, as history shows us that no good had come of it.
Except medicine has now largely figured it out. I don't see any sign that nationalism has.
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  #104  
Old 11.10.2016, 12:43
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Hmm. Let's see, I'm going to negotiate with the other side, do I go around beforehand saying "yes, i must stay in the single market at any cost it's vital to the economy" or do i say "hard brexit is not so bad, i'm cool with that"?
Sounds like a good approach.

Imagine the first negotiation meeting.

The UK says "we are not going to tell you what we want".

The EU replies "OK, we will not do that either"

Two years later, bang!
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  #105  
Old 11.10.2016, 12:49
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Except medicine has now largely figured it out. I don't see any sign that nationalism has.
Well, as far as I can tell Canada, Switzerland, Holland, Iceland, Ireland, Australia, and Norway haven't started any wars recently, but I am fairly sure you can find more counterexamples.
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  #106  
Old 11.10.2016, 12:50
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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The Times owned by that scumbag Murdoch who owns The Sun who backed Brexit. :/
Exactly ... if it was the Grauniad, some here would say it was biased against Brexit ...

That sum woould represent about

80 % of the education budget

50+ % of NHS budget

about 130 % of defence
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  #107  
Old 11.10.2016, 12:53
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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THE TIMES today (not the Guardian ) - published leaked Government papers saying that hard Brexit (and a soft one is not really on the cards)- will probably cost the UK 66 billion a year, and drop GDP bx 9.5 %.
Luckily the Guardian picked up this story so those of us with small pockets can also read it here.

Basically this is the same study used in Project Fear so it is not new. The elephant in the room is the article claims that the Treasury are still standing behind these forecasts.
For those sitting in the back of the class this forecast is about the effect of Brexit after UK leaves the EU; so two years after Art. 50 is invoked.
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  #108  
Old 11.10.2016, 13:08
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Two years later, bang!
Yup. It will be hard Brexit by default.
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  #109  
Old 11.10.2016, 13:08
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Exactly ... if it was the Grauniad, some here would say it was biased against Brexit ...

That sum woould represent about

80 % of the education budget

50+ % of NHS budget

about 130 % of defence
Ho Hum, I would not believe forecasts, the UK stockmarket was supposed to be toast, however is well above the level before the vote. The markets believe profits will be higher than before, rather than lower.
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  #110  
Old 11.10.2016, 13:35
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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We are all aware of that. My question is, how long will they remain if they have to pay tariffs and are dependent on part imports, etc.


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Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Vauxhall (GM), JLR, Ford, BMW, Mini, etc- are all foreign owned and are all considering their option in a post Brexit UK.

https://www.ft.com/content/27d7b066-...f-79eb4891c97d

They employ 100s of 1000s, mostly in deprived areas of the UK.
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The Japanese have hit the table twice alreay, stating their needs that the UK make sure no changes in tax and trade regimes, standards, etc happen. This happened on the topmost international levels, obviously they consider the issues important. This shouldn't be much of a surprise as tens of billions of investments in the UK are at stake, if not hundreds.

Timeline for departure? Who knows, clearly depends on the circumstances, the bigger the disadvantage the quicker adjustments will happen. Five years perhaps for a bigger car parts factory.
It will be much worse for the EU then for the UK if there will be import tariffs on cars. Germany, France, Sweden, Italy, Spain, Czech Republic, etc., they all export cars to the UK much much more than the other way around. Cars, trains, and aeroplanes produce a lot of jobs (in the EU) per euro/dollar/pound exported. The UK on the other hand has much of its GDP dependent on services, mainly finance, which by nature is much less dependent of headcount than manufacturing.

It will be hard for the EU bureaucrats to accept but they must agree on a trade agreement for the UK. If on the other hand both close each others markets, still the UK will be in a much better position because it's a more competitive and agile economy to reach developing markets than the EU mainland.
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  #111  
Old 11.10.2016, 13:41
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

Former Bank of England Chief 'WELCOME CHANGE' from in fall in the £
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...tastrophe.html
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  #112  
Old 11.10.2016, 13:51
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Former Bank of England Chief 'WELCOME CHANGE' from in fall in the £
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...tastrophe.html
In 2008 Polish currency tanked about 40%, thus attracting new waves of investments and much less spending for foreign goods, and the trade deficit trend reversed. Sure, fuel is expensive like hell, but al least the unemployment hasn't shot up post 2008.
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  #113  
Old 11.10.2016, 14:04
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Former Bank of England Chief 'WELCOME CHANGE' from in fall in the £
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...tastrophe.html
He also said ""I don't think we should fear (Brexit). It's not a bed of roses, but nor is it the end of the world.""
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  #114  
Old 11.10.2016, 15:49
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Ho Hum, I would not believe forecasts, the UK stockmarket was supposed to be toast, however is well above the level before the vote. The markets believe profits will be higher than before, rather than lower.
FTSE-100 companies are multinationals, a big share of their profits are generated abroad. The value of these profits (their purchase power if you will) is independent from GBP exchange rate, so a falling GBP means increasing profits if these are expressed in GBP. Obviously increasing profits are good for stock prices.

The Footsie OTOH is driven by the stock prices in GBP, rising profits in GBP (due to the falling GBP exchange rate) is positive for the index.
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  #115  
Old 11.10.2016, 16:01
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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FTSE-100 companies are multinationals, a big share of their profits are generated abroad. The value of these profits (their purchase power if you will) is independent from GBP exchange rate, so a falling GBP means increasing profits if these are expressed in GBP. Obviously increasing profits are good for stock prices.

The Footsie OTOH is driven by the stock prices in GBP, rising profits in GBP (due to the falling GBP exchange rate) is positive for the index.
We were warned that the FTSE would fall due to BREXIT, the journalists as always don't have the first understanding of the Issues.

I think a hard BREXIT will give the UK a huge competitive advantage against the rest of the EU, roll it on I say.
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  #116  
Old 11.10.2016, 16:29
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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It will be much worse for the EU then for the UK if there will be import tariffs on cars. Germany, France, Sweden, Italy, Spain, Czech Republic, etc., they all export cars to the UK much much more than the other way around. Cars, trains, and aeroplanes produce a lot of jobs (in the EU) per euro/dollar/pound exported. The UK on the other hand has much of its GDP dependent on services, mainly finance, which by nature is much less dependent of headcount than manufacturing.

It will be hard for the EU bureaucrats to accept but they must agree on a trade agreement for the UK. If on the other hand both close each others markets, still the UK will be in a much better position because it's a more competitive and agile economy to reach developing markets than the EU mainland.
Again that chestnut. It's simple. About 48% of the UK's exports go to the UK. About 8% of EU exports go to the UK or 17% if you ignore intra-EU trade. 13% of the UK economy is directly dependent on exports to the EU, 3% of the rest EU on exports to the UK. So now who is at greater risk?


As for services, that is highly dependent on the financial passport. Something I feel is unlikely to be granted unless other deals work out well for the EU

Last edited by baboon; 11.10.2016 at 17:12.
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  #117  
Old 11.10.2016, 16:44
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

IMO, the clear economic win-win would be for the UK to leave customs union and single market, but have in its place a free trade zone and simplified customs procedures where the UK doesn't diverge from the EU. This will keep everything ticking over and allow for gradual change.

However, I think politics will trump economics and so both sides could cut off their own noses...

While a hard cut-off will be tumultuous, I think Britain will survive it and adjust accordingly.

I wonder if the EU really willing to go all the way down that path. EU banks are already fragile and playing Russian roulette at this time could be risky.

I'm happy to sit back and watch for now and maybe pick up a few bargains if things do go tits-up and GBP and EUR crash following a failure to reach an agreement.
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  #118  
Old 11.10.2016, 17:07
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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Again that chestnut. It's simple. About 48% of the UK's exports go to the UK. About 8% of EU exports go to the UK or 17% if you ignore intra-EU trade. 13% of the UK economy is directly dependent on exports to the EU, 3% of the rest EU on exports to the UK. So now who is at greater risk?


As for services, that is highly dependent on the finaincial passport. Something I feel is unlikely to be granted unless other deals work out well for the EU
What will cause more trouble, 10.000 car manufacturing workers losing their jobs in Germany or 1000 bankers or programmers in the UK?

Everybody will lose if import taxes are imposed by the EU, it will be retarded not to negotiate a decent trade deal.

If the stupidity goes over, the UK is much more agile, modern, and prepared to close trade agreements with the developing world and even increasing its trade with other developed countries such as Canada, Australia, etc.
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  #119  
Old 11.10.2016, 17:11
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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What will cause more trouble, 10.000 car manufacturing workers losing their jobs in Germany or 1000 bankers or programmers in the UK?
Which will cause more trouble...10,000 workers in the whole EU or 42,000 in the UK. Because that is what the respective percentages actually mean.
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  #120  
Old 11.10.2016, 17:16
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Re: Wow, CHF to GBP exchange rate is pretty crazy at the moment...

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IMO, the clear economic win-win would be for the UK to leave customs union and single market, but have in its place a free trade zone and simplified customs procedures where the UK doesn't diverge from the EU. This will keep everything ticking over and allow for gradual change.

However, I think politics will trump economics and so both sides could cut off their own noses...

While a hard cut-off will be tumultuous, I think Britain will survive it and adjust accordingly.

I wonder if the EU really willing to go all the way down that path. EU banks are already fragile and playing Russian roulette at this time could be risky.

I'm happy to sit back and watch for now and maybe pick up a few bargains if things do go tits-up and GBP and EUR crash following a failure to reach an agreement.
"I wonder if the EU really willing to go all the way " The flaw in your comment is that you have fallen for your own propaganda and you believe "the EU" will make any decision.

There is no such thing as "the EU", the decision will be made jointly by the 27 countries, the EU commission and the EU parliament and maybe even the ECJ will be involved; each of those has their own agenda plus the a veto in their hands.
Just look at the challenge May has trying to get her four Brexit Ministers to speak with one voice; imagine the other side with 30 voices to align.
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