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Old 19.01.2017, 12:02
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Banks and Brexit.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news...cial-services/

So, how bad will this be for the U.K, EU, Switzerland and the global economy as a whole?
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  #2  
Old 19.01.2017, 12:31
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

Why does it have to be bad? It might just be different. Nothing ever works out the way you think anyway, so probably nothing significant will happen.
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Old 19.01.2017, 12:57
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news...cial-services/

So, how bad will this be for the U.K, EU, Switzerland and the global economy as a whole?
Well the UK is going to loose a decent chunk of GDP and tax income. Otherwise given they have 2 years to plan and financial services are pretty mobile it shouldn't really affect the rest of us.


Berlin/Amsterdam/Paris will be laughing though.
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Old 19.01.2017, 12:59
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

Who knows what will happen..

What I do know is that most of what we read now is just headline grabbing.. Statements like "Banks are already preparing to move thousands of jobs .."

This is a bag of ass.. Banks are always prepared to move thousands of jobs.. Simple. There are plans for everything.. These plans existed before brexit.
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Old 19.01.2017, 17:49
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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Who knows what will happen..

What I do know is that most of what we read now is just headline grabbing.. Statements like "Banks are already preparing to move thousands of jobs .."

This is a bag of ass.. Banks are always prepared to move thousands of jobs.. Simple. There are plans for everything.. These plans existed before brexit.
Very true & of course many banking jobs will be taken over by algorithms over the next 10 years so massive redundancies will occur world wide.
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Old 19.01.2017, 18:08
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news...cial-services/

So, how bad will this be for the U.K, EU, Switzerland and the global economy as a whole?
Good or bad, the degree of uncertainty is quite high at a global scale. CNN "Business means Quest" held some good mini interviews in Davos concerning the issue of uncertainty.

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Very true & of course many banking jobs will be taken over by algorithms over the next 10 years so massive redundancies will occur world wide.
I've been mentioning this point in EF. People still think that digitalization and automatization are some sci-fi buzzwords. The reality is that massive investments are on the table. Big Data will become a Big Tata for some people

Btw, I've just noticed "Big Data or Big Tata" could be a nice article title
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Old 19.01.2017, 18:17
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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Well the UK is going to loose a decent chunk of GDP and tax income. Otherwise given they have 2 years to plan and financial services are pretty mobile it shouldn't really affect the rest of us.
Those moves are likely to affect everybody if they occur on a larger scale, for isntance by dropping real estate prices.
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Old 19.01.2017, 18:22
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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Those moves are likely to affect everybody if they occur on a larger scale, for isntance by dropping real estate prices.
Lower real estate prices is a VERY GOOD thing. After the house prices crashed in the 90's central London sold for 2.5 times average earnings, now it's 12 times earnings. Prime New York you fell 90% after 1929 & Prime Tokyo fell 90% after the 90's. So to say London house prices could not fall 80% is absurd.
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Old 19.01.2017, 18:30
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

Lots of vested interests are supporting UK house prices. They will prefer to see deserted the London prime areas rather than experience not a 90% drop but not even a 30% drop in house prices.
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Old 19.01.2017, 23:54
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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Lots of vested interests are supporting UK house prices. They will prefer to see deserted the London prime areas rather than experience not a 90% drop but not even a 30% drop in house prices.
Prime central London has already fallen 25-30%........ many thousands of million pound plus flats being completed in the next 2 years, more than 10 years supply so expect further sharp falls this year.
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Old 20.01.2017, 00:09
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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Prime central London has already fallen 25-30%........ many thousands of million pound plus flats being completed in the next 2 years, more than 10 years supply so expect further sharp falls this year.
From today's Times:

"Homeowners sitting on a £5trillion fortune boom"
Total private house value exceeded £5trillion - nearly 3 times the size of the economy

Where's this all headed??
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Old 20.01.2017, 00:41
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news...cial-services/

So, how bad will this be for the U.K, EU, Switzerland and the global economy as a whole?
FAKE NEWS.

HSBC employees about 50k people in UK, over 250K globally. But the headline 'HSBC might move 0.2% of staff to Paris' doesn't fit the narrative they're trying to promote.
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Old 20.01.2017, 01:31
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

The EU has been trying for some time to stop London being the major euro clearing house.
The value of euros traded is in the trillions and London financial services get a commission on every deal.

When UK is no longer in the EU then it will be difficult to find reasons to stop this business moving to a city in the euro zone.
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Old 20.01.2017, 01:43
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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FAKE NEWS.

HSBC employees about 50k people in UK, over 250K globally. But the headline 'HSBC might move 0.2% of staff to Paris' doesn't fit the narrative they're trying to promote.
Last year HSBC announce they had 48K people in the UK and plan to cut that to 40K.

So now they plan to initially move 2.5% of UK employees to Paris.

Of course HSBC has a number of different businesses and these people represent a part of the business that has high turnover and profits so the effect will be more than this simple overview implies.
As the article states "Bank CEO Stuart Gulliver said the staff affected generate roughly 20% of its U.K.-based trading revenue."
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Old 20.01.2017, 09:47
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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From today's Times:

"Homeowners sitting on a £5trillion fortune boom"
Total private house value exceeded £5trillion - nearly 3 times the size of the economy

Where's this all headed??
Its a very risky scenario when 25-30 year olds can't afford to buy a house, such a situation could only occur for 1 generation at the most. Eventually 25-30 year olds will be able to buy property again in the UK.
Prices have been artificially inflated for 15 years, this should have never occurred, the bubble should have been allowed to burst in 2002. When it finally blows it will get messy.
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Old 20.01.2017, 10:05
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

Quote:
From today's Times:

"Homeowners sitting on a £5trillion fortune boom"
Total private house value exceeded £5trillion - nearly 3 times the size of the economy

Where's this all headed??
The Times:
"AbFab's personal wealth is ten times higher than his/her income. This is impossible to have a good ending!" That's the equivalent of your quote on a personal level.

What exactly is the significane of this comparison? What use is it to compare wealth with income? What conclusions can be drawn?

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FAKE NEWS.

HSBC employees about 50k people in UK, over 250K globally. But the headline 'HSBC might move 0.2% of staff to Paris' doesn't fit the narrative they're trying to promote.
For UBS it's 20% of their employees in the UK, according to the article, that's quite significant. The remark that the affected HSBC staff generate 20% of its trading revenue go in the same direction, although this is limited to trading alone.
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Old 20.01.2017, 10:28
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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Last year HSBC announce they had 48K people in the UK and plan to cut that to 40K.

So now they plan to initially move 2.5% of UK employees to Paris.

Of course HSBC has a number of different businesses and these people represent a part of the business that has high turnover and profits so the effect will be more than this simple overview implies.
As the article states "Bank CEO Stuart Gulliver said the staff affected generate roughly 20% of its U.K.-based trading revenue."
Hsbc also threatened to move hq to Hong Kong but it was never going to happen. Same here. They might move a few grunts out but no-one senior.
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Old 20.01.2017, 10:32
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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Hsbc also threatened to move hq to Hong Kong but it was never going to happen. Same here. They might move a few grunts out but no-one senior.
So move the headquarters back to where it used to be before they bought the Midland Bank in the UK, hardly radical
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Old 20.01.2017, 10:41
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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... The reality is that massive investments are on the table. Big Data will become a Big Tata for some people
I thought TCS had already taken over...
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Old 20.01.2017, 10:55
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Re: Banks and Brexit.

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So move the headquarters back to where it used to be before they bought the Midland Bank in the UK, hardly radical
Well except it is hugely radical because 1) hk too small, 2) bond holders vetoed because prefer English law, 3) hk now part of China.

Similar to the "arguments" being made here that [insert name of EU city] will be "laughing" because of bankers fleeing London. There are host of reasons why London is EMEA's financial hub and it won't change.
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