Go Back   English Forum Switzerland > Help & tips > Finance/banking/taxation
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 16.03.2017, 16:26
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Albis area
Posts: 574
Groaned at 101 Times in 61 Posts
Thanked 431 Times in 233 Posts
EPMike has earned some respectEPMike has earned some respect
Long term portfolio: your opinions

Dear fellow EFers

First of all thanks to all of you, I learned a lot about investing in the last year from this forum.

So I would like to share the portfolio I have come up with for the next 30+ years:

30% Fundsmith
20% Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
15% iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Growth ETF
15% PowerShares BuyBack Achievers Portfolio
20% SPDR Gold Trust


notes:
- No bonds for the time being: My generous pension fund from my employer is enough bonds (with low returns).
- own property with only I. Hypothek
- age mid thirties
- about 6months of spending in savings account.

so, what are your opinions?

I backtested the portfolio (except for FS) until 2007 and gives superior returns to S&P 500 with lower volatility. I could get higher returns with a Nasdaq100 or the like, but looking back at the .com bubble, I am reluctant to do so.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 16.03.2017, 16:33
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 14,554
Groaned at 215 Times in 187 Posts
Thanked 11,892 Times in 6,694 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Quote:
View Post
Dear fellow EFers

First of all thanks to all of you, I learned a lot about investing in the last year from this forum.

So I would like to share the portfolio I have come up with for the next 30+ years:

30% Fundsmith
20% Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
15% iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Growth ETF
15% PowerShares BuyBack Achievers Portfolio
20% SPDR Gold Trust


notes:
- No bonds for the time being: My generous pension fund from my employer is enough bonds (with low returns).
- own property with only I. Hypothek
- age mid thirties
- about 6months of spending in savings account.

so, what are your opinions?

I backtested the portfolio (except for FS) until 2007 and gives superior returns to S&P 500 with lower volatility. I could get higher returns with a Nasdaq100 or the like, but looking back at the .com bubble, I am reluctant to do so.
All good except the gold holding, I would drop that. Cashboy was big on gold when it was going up, he has even very quiet for a long time there is a long thread on the subject. I am not that keen on rebalancing especially as there is diversification in all the investments except gold. Imagine if you had said 20% Japan 30 years & rebalanced every year, you would have done much worse than leaving that investment untouched or selling out. PE's are way different to the dot.com bubble......
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank fatmanfilms for this useful post:
  #3  
Old 16.03.2017, 16:38
newtoswitz's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Rapperswil
Posts: 1,468
Groaned at 19 Times in 17 Posts
Thanked 1,657 Times in 755 Posts
newtoswitz has a reputation beyond reputenewtoswitz has a reputation beyond reputenewtoswitz has a reputation beyond reputenewtoswitz has a reputation beyond reputenewtoswitz has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

The obvious thing is the FX risk with it all being in non-Swiss stuff.

Maybe swap out the S&P small cap for an SMI Mid equivalent, if this bothers you.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 16.03.2017, 16:41
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 14,554
Groaned at 215 Times in 187 Posts
Thanked 11,892 Times in 6,694 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Quote:
View Post
The obvious thing is the FX risk with it all being in non-Swiss stuff.

Maybe swap out the S&P small cap for an SMI Mid equivalent, if this bothers you.
He has a CHF mortgage, so he has a geared CHF exposure already.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 16.03.2017, 16:49
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Albis area
Posts: 574
Groaned at 101 Times in 61 Posts
Thanked 431 Times in 233 Posts
EPMike has earned some respectEPMike has earned some respect
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Quote:
View Post
The obvious thing is the FX risk with it all being in non-Swiss stuff.

Maybe swap out the S&P small cap for an SMI Mid equivalent, if this bothers you.
SMI has just the same currency exposure. The companies in the SMI make most of their revenues in foreign currency.

Quote:
View Post
He has a CHF mortgage, so he has a geared CHF exposure already.
I don't consider my property as part of my investment. With the II hypothek paid up, it is just a cheaper rent.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 16.03.2017, 16:53
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Albis area
Posts: 574
Groaned at 101 Times in 61 Posts
Thanked 431 Times in 233 Posts
EPMike has earned some respectEPMike has earned some respect
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Quote:
View Post
All good except the gold holding, I would drop that. Cashboy was big on gold when it was going up, he has even very quiet for a long time there is a long thread on the subject.
Can you propose something else that would reduce standard deviation over the rest of the portfolio? The reason I added gold was as an insurance just in case I need cash during a stock market crash.

Quote:
View Post
I am not that keen on rebalancing especially as there is diversification in all the investments except gold. Imagine if you had said 20% Japan 30 years & rebalanced every year, you would have done much worse than leaving that investment untouched or selling out.
I plan to rebalance only by adjusting the level of additional purchases and not by selling any of my holdings.

Quote:
View Post
PE's are way different to the dot.com bubble......
Are you saying what I am saying? That even nasdaq could make it in the portfolio?
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 16.03.2017, 16:53
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 14,554
Groaned at 215 Times in 187 Posts
Thanked 11,892 Times in 6,694 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Quote:
View Post
SMI has just the same currency exposure. The companies in the SMI make most of their revenues in foreign currency.

I don't consider my property as part of my investment. With the II hypothek paid up, it is just a cheaper rent.
Correct

Your assumption is that you sell for at least the price you pay.
12 years from now computers will match the intelligence of a human, many 'clever people' will be replaced as the computer will cost less than 120k a year to run. The world is moving increasingly faster 12 years ago smart phones did not exist & driverless cars were not on the horizon.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 16.03.2017, 16:54
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Albis area
Posts: 574
Groaned at 101 Times in 61 Posts
Thanked 431 Times in 233 Posts
EPMike has earned some respectEPMike has earned some respect
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Quote:
View Post
Correct

Your assumption is that you sell for at least the price you pay.
12 years from now computers will match the intelligence of a human, many 'clever people' will be replaced as the computer will cost less than 120k a year to run.
Indeed, then property prices might drop. But I don't plan to sell. And if the bank calls to increase its margin: I will just use some 2nd pillar
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank EPMike for this useful post:
  #9  
Old 16.03.2017, 17:01
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 11,838
Groaned at 252 Times in 163 Posts
Thanked 13,957 Times in 5,902 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Mine is a little different.

More tech heavy: around 50%

Mine is also very US centric. I'm wondering whether to diversify and have more exposure to some emerging market companies.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 16.03.2017, 17:02
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 14,554
Groaned at 215 Times in 187 Posts
Thanked 11,892 Times in 6,694 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Quote:
View Post
Can you propose something else that would reduce standard deviation over the rest of the portfolio? The reason I added gold was as an insurance just in case I need cash during a stock market crash.



I plan to rebalance only by adjusting the level of additional purchases and not by selling any of my holdings.



Are you saying what I am saying? That even nasdaq could make it in the portfolio?
I would be careful about gold, when the S&P fell 27% in 1980/82 gold fell 46%. It's just down to if Gold is in fashion at the time, it's kind of been in fashion this century so your back testing has not gone far enough to be meaningful. Inflation adjusted gold's peak was in 1979 interday high above $900

If my theory on technology is correct then NASDEQ would be the place to be.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 16.03.2017, 17:10
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 11,838
Groaned at 252 Times in 163 Posts
Thanked 13,957 Times in 5,902 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

I also agree with dumping gold, if you want 'cash' available in a risk off scenario, then maybe holdings in non-cyclicals or your FS holdings could take this function.
Reply With Quote
This user would like to thank Phil_MCR for this useful post:
  #12  
Old 16.03.2017, 17:35
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Albis area
Posts: 574
Groaned at 101 Times in 61 Posts
Thanked 431 Times in 233 Posts
EPMike has earned some respectEPMike has earned some respect
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Quote:
View Post
I would be careful about gold, when the S&P fell 27% in 1980/82 gold fell 46%. It's just down to if Gold is in fashion at the time, it's kind of been in fashion this century so your back testing has not gone far enough to be meaningful. Inflation adjusted gold's peak was in 1979 interday high above $900

If my theory on technology is correct then NASDEQ would be the place to be.
Quote:
View Post
I also agree with dumping gold, if you want 'cash' available in a risk off scenario, then maybe holdings in non-cyclicals or your FS holdings could take this function.
replacing gold with qqq does indeed boost returns big time, but also volatility.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 16.03.2017, 17:36
Phil_MCR's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Basel
Posts: 11,838
Groaned at 252 Times in 163 Posts
Thanked 13,957 Times in 5,902 Posts
Phil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond reputePhil_MCR has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Quote:
View Post
replacing gold with qqq does indeed boost returns big time, but also volatility.
if you don't need the returns for 30 years, do you care?
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users would like to thank Phil_MCR for this useful post:
  #14  
Old 16.03.2017, 18:12
Today only's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Europe
Posts: 4,611
Groaned at 521 Times in 328 Posts
Thanked 5,261 Times in 2,530 Posts
Today only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond reputeToday only has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Spend it on gin and enjoy retirement
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 16.03.2017, 20:06
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Zug
Posts: 121
Groaned at 9 Times in 5 Posts
Thanked 108 Times in 53 Posts
localresident has made some interesting contributions
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Consider the 'boring' investment categories. Over the long run people have always needed food (Consumer Staples) and medicine (Healthcare). In addition to being sedate and consistent investments, the Healthcare and Consumer sectors have over the long term consistently outperformed other investment categories.

Low cost index funds are available on both the MSCI World Consumer Staples and MSCI World Healthcare indices.

http://investorfieldguide.com/201461...taples-part-1/
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 16.03.2017, 20:24
fatmanfilms's Avatar
Forum Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Verbier
Posts: 14,554
Groaned at 215 Times in 187 Posts
Thanked 11,892 Times in 6,694 Posts
fatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond reputefatmanfilms has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Quote:
View Post
Consider the 'boring' investment categories. Over the long run people have always needed food (Consumer Staples) and medicine (Healthcare). In addition to being sedate and consistent investments, the Healthcare and Consumer sectors have over the long term consistently outperformed other investment categories.

Low cost index funds are available on both the MSCI World Consumer Staples and MSCI World Healthcare indices.

http://investorfieldguide.com/201461...taples-part-1/
The OP has 30% in Fundsmith, which invests heavily in those areas for the reasons you mention.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 16.03.2017, 21:19
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: GR
Posts: 88
Groaned at 8 Times in 6 Posts
Thanked 16 Times in 15 Posts
wantone has no particular reputation at present
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

I would do a mix Europe & US assets.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 16.03.2017, 21:33
newtoswitz's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Rapperswil
Posts: 1,468
Groaned at 19 Times in 17 Posts
Thanked 1,657 Times in 755 Posts
newtoswitz has a reputation beyond reputenewtoswitz has a reputation beyond reputenewtoswitz has a reputation beyond reputenewtoswitz has a reputation beyond reputenewtoswitz has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Quote:
View Post
SMI has just the same currency exposure. The companies in the SMI make most of their revenues in foreign currency.
SMI mid-cap (SMIM), not SMI - still has significant non-CHF exposure (what doesn't, CH just isn't that big), but is a reasonable balance without going too small and volatile.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 16.03.2017, 21:45
HIAO's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Bellevue
Posts: 740
Groaned at 1 Time in 1 Post
Thanked 1,746 Times in 467 Posts
HIAO has a reputation beyond reputeHIAO has a reputation beyond reputeHIAO has a reputation beyond reputeHIAO has a reputation beyond reputeHIAO has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Hold 5% of your portfolio in physical gold.

It's also a hedge against inflation and strengthening dollar.

Just don't hold it with a view of an opportunistic gain.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 16.03.2017, 21:49
ivank's Avatar
Forum Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: ZH
Posts: 1,427
Groaned at 57 Times in 47 Posts
Thanked 1,123 Times in 655 Posts
ivank has an excellent reputationivank has an excellent reputationivank has an excellent reputationivank has an excellent reputation
Re: Long term portfolio: your opinions

Quote:
View Post
Hold 5% of your portfolio in physical gold.
And pay big $$$ on protecting or insuring it, and also some high retail markup to buy and sell it from your friendly neighborhood swiss bank? No thanks

Quote:
It's also a hedge against inflation and strengthening dollar.
So is swiss real estate (aka Betongold), but it's even better - pays dividends, unlike a gold brick in your wall safe.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
etf, invest, pension




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Long-term B permit, long-term unemployment and limited German proficiency InCH Permits/visas/government 1 04.10.2016 12:52
Short term room available in modern, spacious apartment possibly long term Kiwinumber1 Property offered 2 13.11.2015 02:00
Short term accomodation (=long term hotel ?) in Zürich varioplus Housing in general 4 04.09.2010 11:58
B Permit Form - different for Long term B and Short term B ? samofsydney Permits/visas/government 3 14.02.2010 14:40
Early change of short-term B to long-term B Alirezakarimi Permits/visas/government 12 14.01.2008 00:00


All times are GMT +2. The time now is 03:24.

Comparis

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.1.0