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  #61  
Old 09.06.2017, 18:36
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Re: Ethereum

So the retired French teacher has tripled his investment in about a month? Good work.
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  #62  
Old 09.06.2017, 18:52
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Re: Ethereum

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So the retired French teacher has tripled his investment in about a month? Good work.
The week after he invested, I told his story to two asset managers from a well-known bank.

They asked me how did he fund the purchase and I replied that he sold a small quantity of physical gold that he'd bought a year previously.

They both went pale and asked me what was he smoking.

He's relaxed and in no rush to take a profit.
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  #63  
Old 09.06.2017, 19:11
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Re: Ethereum

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The week after he invested, I told his story to two asset managers from a well-known bank.

They asked me how did he fund the purchase and I replied that he sold a small quantity of physical gold that he'd bought a year previously.

They both went pale and asked me what was he smoking.

He's relaxed and in no rush to take a profit.

You should have mentioned to them that 10000 invested in gold in 2009 is worth more or less the same today, invested in Bitcoin it would now be valued at over 200 million
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  #64  
Old 09.06.2017, 22:42
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Re: Ethereum

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You should have mentioned to them that 10000 invested in gold in 2009 is worth more or less the same today, invested in Bitcoin it would now be valued at over 200 million
18 Euros invested in Powerball with the numbers 4-8-19-27-34 before the January 2016 draw would have netted you a cool $520 million. Hindsight is always 20/20... and while I agree that "investing" in gold is a hilariously dumb idea, comparing in hindsight is not helpful unfortunately.

In 2009, you'd have been taking a huge risk with those 10000, nevermind the fact that it would have been exceedingly difficult to buy such a large amount at the time. Furthermore, if 10000 is such a low amount for you that you can effectively just throw it out the window on a frequent and random basis, chances are that you are pulling down huge amounts of cash from your wealth using traditional investment methods anyway.
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  #65  
Old 10.06.2017, 09:40
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Re: Ethereum

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18 Euros invested in Powerball with the numbers 4-8-19-27-34 before the January 2016 draw would have netted you a cool $520 million. Hindsight is always 20/20... and while I agree that "investing" in gold is a hilariously dumb idea, comparing in hindsight is not helpful unfortunately.

In 2009, you'd have been taking a huge risk with those 10000, nevermind the fact that it would have been exceedingly difficult to buy such a large amount at the time. Furthermore, if 10000 is such a low amount for you that you can effectively just throw it out the window on a frequent and random basis, chances are that you are pulling down huge amounts of cash from your wealth using traditional investment methods anyway.
It you knew about bitcoin in 2009, the thing to do would be to mine it. Even a cheap laptop could have earned 50 BTC every few minutes. Of course, you'd have had to be on a very obscure forum to even know about it (as you said, hindsight is 20/20) and have the foresight to keep the coins (or really, their private keys), during the years when it was basically worthless. (And as we know, people are really bad at keeping stuff on their harddrives safe...)

And talking about Ethereum again, it had rather a good day yesterday (the May effect?) and now has a market cap of over 27 billion dollars (to put that in perspective, it was less than a billion at the start of year, and when it was released in 2014, you could buy 2000 ETH for a bitcoin (about 600 dollars at the time and 1/1000 of its current price) - now you can buy less than 10 ETH for 1 BTC).

Its value is now 60% of bitcoin's and it seems to be hunting it down with the ruthlessness of the terminator...

Last edited by speakeron; 10.06.2017 at 10:11.
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  #66  
Old 10.06.2017, 23:56
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Re: Ethereum

So 12 hours after my previous post, ETH now has a market cap of 30 billion USD (i.e. it's up about 10%). There are two ways of looking at this:

1) This is bubble which is surely about to pop. In the same manner that Joseph Kennedy knew when to sell before the 1929 crash because his shoeshine boy gave him stock tips, maybe we should take note that we're talking about Ethereum on a forum more usually devoted to questions about how to get a license for your pet fish

2) 10% in half a day is actually conservative for a cryptocoin and so ETH can be thought of as quite stable. If you go to poloniex.com (and maybe you should just to see how crazy these crypto markets are), you'll see a coin with currently even more volume than ETH (which is normally dog top for volume) which rose 100% yesterday (BitShares). It has since shed half of that increase and will probably shed the other half (and, more importantly, shed the volume) soon. This kind of thing happens often to random small-volume coins as groups pump them up.

Interesting times.

EDIT: Adam West, the greatest ever Batman, has died. Out of respect, ETH has stopped rising for a bit.

Last edited by speakeron; 11.06.2017 at 00:34. Reason: Batman, of course.
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  #67  
Old 11.06.2017, 15:55
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Re: Ethereum

I love it, even at EF there's talk about ETH. Makes my early investments skyrocket.

Buy, buy, buy!
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  #68  
Old 11.06.2017, 16:30
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Re: Ethereum

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I love it, even at EF there's talk about ETH. Makes my early investments skyrocket.

Buy, buy, buy!
See note (1) in my previous post. ;-)
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  #69  
Old 11.06.2017, 17:51
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Re: Ethereum

I would like for someone to explain to me, why the total cap of ethereum should not match the one of bitcoin.
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  #70  
Old 11.06.2017, 19:02
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Re: Ethereum

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I would like for someone to explain to me, why the total cap of ethereum should not match the one of bitcoin.
why should the market cap for dogecoin not match the one for bitcoin?
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  #71  
Old 11.06.2017, 21:09
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Re: Ethereum

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I would like for someone to explain to me, why the total cap of ethereum should not match the one of bitcoin.
I suggest you go to https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/ and ask that question.

In my opinion, it will match (and pass) it; but you may get a different opinion there...
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  #72  
Old 11.06.2017, 21:33
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Re: Ethereum

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why should the market cap for dogecoin not match the one for bitcoin?
Exactly. In the end I think there are 3 deciding factors:
  • "brand" awareness, trust
  • integration with the system, wide acceptance, exchangeability
  • differences in implementation

In the end, I think the last one is the most important. If a currency has an advantage within the algorithm, e.g. it is cheaper to run or provides more anonymity, it will be worth more in the long run.
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  #73  
Old 11.06.2017, 22:14
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Re: Ethereum

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Exactly. In the end I think there are 3 deciding factors:
  • "brand" awareness, trust
  • integration with the system, wide acceptance, exchangeability
  • differences in implementation

In the end, I think the last one is the most important. If a currency has an advantage within the algorithm, e.g. it is cheaper to run or provides more anonymity, it will be worth more in the long run.
That's a good set of criteria. Let's apply that to Etherum:
  • Ethereum has a great brand awareness now and has the charismatic 'trustworthy' leader that Bitcoin lost when Satoshi dropped off the scene. It has suffered a trust hit through the DAO fiasco, but that has been respun to a story of the community getting together to solve the problem. There is still the niggling doubt that a DAO problem will happen again (it already has, to some extent when an exchange lost 14 million USD of customers' ETH a few weeks ago through a programming error - although this didn't dent the market at all). Other worries with Ethereum is whether is can really scale (Bitcoin also has this problem); there are solutions proposed but it remains to be seen whether these can really work well.

  • That's as good as any cryptocoin.

  • The big thing with Ethereum is the Turing-complete scripting which enables you to build almost anything on top it (there's a thriving ecosystem now of coins which run on top of Ethereum, e.g. Golem and Augur). The other big difference coming (and this is tightly linked with the scaling problem) is the move from proof-of-work validation (which uses vast amounts of electricity) to proof-of-stake (which doesn't). This gives Ethereum the warm glow of planet-friendliness...

EDIT: Quick market cap update: ETH now has a 32 billion USD market cap, which is 66% of BTC's.

Son of EDIT: This isn't a bad little piece: Why Ethereum is outpacing Bitcoin

EDIT meets the swamp beast: [This space reserved because comedy comes in threes (perhaps the single most important rule you can learn in life.)]

Last edited by speakeron; 11.06.2017 at 23:29.
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  #74  
Old 11.06.2017, 22:22
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Re: Ethereum

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18 Euros invested in Powerball with the numbers 4-8-19-27-34 before the January 2016 draw would have netted you a cool $520 million. Hindsight is always 20/20... and while I agree that "investing" in gold is a hilariously dumb idea, comparing in hindsight is not helpful unfortunately.

In 2009, you'd have been taking a huge risk with those 10000, nevermind the fact that it would have been exceedingly difficult to buy such a large amount at the time. Furthermore, if 10000 is such a low amount for you that you can effectively just throw it out the window on a frequent and random basis, chances are that you are pulling down huge amounts of cash from your wealth using traditional investment methods anyway.
It was only ever stated as if, if, if. Maybe one person somewhere did it, who knows? Satoshi's own wallet holds 10% of all BTC (alledgedly).
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  #75  
Old 12.06.2017, 09:45
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Re: Ethereum

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See note (1) in my previous post. ;-)
Just like how Bitcoin has been called a bubble for years now...?
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  #76  
Old 12.06.2017, 10:58
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Re: Ethereum

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Just like how Bitcoin has been called a bubble for years now...?
I'm not disagreeing with that. You'll notice that I gave two options in the post with the first warning that when 'people in the street' start discussing an esoteric asset, that could be a sign that it's reached its peak. There's a lot of historical precedence for that.

And we've had a few bubbles in Bitcoin; I was around during the first when it soared from under a dollar to 30 dollars (in my opinion, that was its most amazing bubble). That was followed by 18 months of an agonizing bear market where a lot of people lost the faith. Similar thing with the first 1k USD bubble. We could be looking at a crash on August 1st when the bunch of idiots led by Luke-Jr attempt to force miners to accept SegWit with the UASF. (Hopefully, that'll be a damp squib that goes nowhere.)

I'm not so sure the ETH bubble will pop yet and it may even not (it is genuinely new technology, after all), but people should be careful putting their life savings in it. (Of course, you, me, and JoeUK are gonna be fine even with a massive selloff; others may not be so lucky.)

EDIT: Market cap update: ETH is now over 34 billion USD and is 72% of BTC's market cap.
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  #77  
Old 12.06.2017, 11:47
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Re: Ethereum

ETH is like the Meth of Crypto Market right now. USD 382 and rocketing...wow!
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  #78  
Old 15.06.2017, 10:55
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Re: Ethereum

There was a nice little sell-off this morning across all cryptocoins (so palate refreshing). This was led by Bitcoin, but also tapped into the general bubble nervousness. BTC came close to 2000 USD and ETH dipped under 300 USD, but all recovered a bit and are now about 10% down.

This was probably caused by two news items yesterday. One was the introduction of S.1241 in the US Congress, a typically barmy bill from politicians that have trouble tying their own shoe laces. The second was mad tweets from the 'Donald Trump of Bitcoin' (Jihan Wu) detailing his bonkers plan to defeat the equally bonkers plan of BIP148.

(Can you see how this stuff can get quite complicated...?)
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  #79  
Old 16.06.2017, 00:36
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Re: Ethereum

Everything's fine now. Panic over and the big dogs (BTC and ETH) are recovering, although still a bit down (ETH market cap is about 32 billion USD).

So, if you're a:

1) Long term investor (hodler[sic] in the parlance), just stay as you are. If you bought in low, you're still laughing. If you bought in at the top: well, every high so far has been superseded by an even bigger high; but don't forget that cosmic dark energy puts a limit on the amount of resources we can gather in the future. So the party has to end sometime.

2) Investor with a trailing stop loss: you probably already bought back in and have a smug look on your face given that you only suffered a slight hit.

3) Active trader with a complicated automatic trading system using (say) multiple neural networks with (say) a novel way of training using stochastic variation of training data which can narrow in on whether a set of predictions is converging or diverging and which called the sell-off perfectly and shorted like a trooper; then you only have to pick the colour that you want your Lambo in[*]

[*] Has to be Verde Ithaca. Oh, and a that'll be a Miura please.
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Old 22.06.2017, 16:00
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Re: Ethereum

Among the many dangers of trading in volatile environments is this one:

Ethereum crashed from $319 to 10 cents in seconds on one exchange after ‘multimillion dollar’ trade

Either a 'fat finger' or a deliberate trade momentarily crashed the ETH price on GDAX (this is Coinbase's 'pro' exchange) from 319 USD to 10 cents. Stop limits activated and proceeded to sell off ETH at the low price (to the chagrin of those affected) and traders who had opportunistic buy orders this low got an early Christmas.
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