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  #281  
Old 23.02.2021, 11:00
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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FS down 2-3% in the last week (mostly currency related as the pound is soaring) vs SMT 15%.

This would be the volatility / risk FMF warns about
All the speculative stocks are falling fast along with BITCOIN.

Looks like FS & SMT are pretty much neck & neck YTD!
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  #282  
Old 23.02.2021, 11:08
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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All the speculative stocks are falling fast along with BITCOIN.

Looks like FS & SMT are pretty much neck & neck YTD!
Bitcoin must be on its last legs as the energy demands are going to be a limiting factor. Realistically if it doesn't have the scope to rapidly go up multiples in valuation its greedy "investors" will run for the hills.
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  #283  
Old 23.02.2021, 11:34
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Re: Another fundsmith question

It's interesting when Bitcoin falls everyone comes out to celebrate and when it rises its a tulip... the truth is since it's birth it grown on avg ~200% every year. let's come back in 1 year and check this

for the curious in nature

https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-volatility/
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  #284  
Old 23.02.2021, 11:38
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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It's interesting when Bitcoin falls everyone comes out to celebrate and when it rises its a tulip... the truth is since it's birth it grown on avg ~200% every year. let's come back in 1 year and check this

for the curious in nature

https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-volatility/
You can draw any no of lines on graphs as many investors do, I don't know of very many rich 'technicians'. It's just the greed believing there is a greater fool to pay a multiple of what you paid. Truth is without an income stream it has zero intrinsic value & eventually will be priced with this in mind.
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  #285  
Old 23.02.2021, 11:45
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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You can draw any no of lines on graphs as many investors do, I don't know of very many rich 'technicians'. It's just the greed believing there is a greater fool to pay a multiple of what you paid. Truth is without an income stream it has zero intrinsic value & eventually will be priced with this in mind.
the lines are backward looking so I'm not drawing them... they're real . In my opinion BTC is doing well when it come to the test of time and survived several crisis so there is something real... not only speculation. I do struggle with other non fungible tokens like the ones mentioned in this article but we can't deny that digital scarcity is possible now and it is valued - whether by many or only a few is certainly debatable.. but probably not here

Let's get back to FS on this thread and talk about bitcoin and NFT elsewhere
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  #286  
Old 23.02.2021, 13:05
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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All the speculative stocks are falling fast along with BITCOIN.

Looks like FS & SMT are pretty much neck & neck YTD!
SMT fallen by about 5% in the last 2 hours since this post! A lot more than NAV I think. Falling 20% in a week makes this a clear buying opportunity.
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  #287  
Old 23.02.2021, 13:07
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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SMT fallen by about 5% in the last 2 hours since this post! A lot more than NAV I think. Falling 20% in a week makes this a clear buying opportunity.
Might be worth waiting, 600 buy price would be more attractive to me
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  #288  
Old 23.02.2021, 13:27
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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Might be worth waiting, 600 buy price would be more attractive to me
Haha - given they offloaded most of the TSLA that caused a significant portion of the 2020 share price to skyrocket it would be a hell of a crash to get back to there.
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  #289  
Old 23.02.2021, 13:47
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Re: Another fundsmith question

Just bought a load of SMT just now.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 23.02.2021 at 14:01.
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  #290  
Old 23.02.2021, 13:49
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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Haha - given they offloaded most of the TSLA that caused a significant portion of the 2020 share price to skyrocket it would be a hell of a crash to get back to there.
Looks like over 20% fall in 8 days, into bear market territory. Still way overweight in Tesla & other companies with valuations to the moon, remember that PE of 2-300 could fall a long way as sentiment gets negative.
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  #291  
Old 23.02.2021, 13:56
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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Looks like over 20% fall in 8 days, into bear market territory. Still way overweight in Tesla & other companies with valuations to the moon, remember that PE of 2-300 could fall a long way as sentiment gets negative.
These risks are part of the game. At least I'm buying rather than selling on the fall which is rookie mistake 101. I'm not quite what has happened between now and the start of the day to cause such an extreme crash.

Bought some at 1147 earlier (few k), and topped up 1131 (20k) just now.
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  #292  
Old 23.02.2021, 14:02
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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These risks are part of the game. At least I'm buying rather than selling on the fall which is rookie mistake 101.
Possibly sell FEET which went up & reinvest in SMT
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  #293  
Old 23.02.2021, 14:10
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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Possibly sell FEET which went up & reinvest in SMT
Pfft. I've emptied my readily available cash (not much sadly) - but selling trusts is a big gamble.

Still - what could have possibly happened between this morning and now to lose 10% I don't understand , especially as the americans aren't awake. NASDAQ futures aren't that bad. Asian markets werent too bad.

Let's see....

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 23.02.2021 at 14:37.
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  #294  
Old 23.02.2021, 15:01
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Re: Another fundsmith question

Bouncing back now - feels like a stop loss avalanche at -12% from opening to lunch. "Up" to only -7% This is why I don't use stop losses.
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  #295  
Old 23.02.2021, 15:16
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Re: Another fundsmith question

SSON dipped today as well, although nowhere near as much as SMT. Having invested in it quite late, I took the opportunity to buy quite some more.
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  #296  
Old 23.02.2021, 15:54
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Re: Another fundsmith question

Topped up PHI too today. Was 870p at close yesterday and bought at 800p just now.
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  #297  
Old 24.02.2021, 13:24
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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These risks are part of the game. At least I'm buying rather than selling on the fall which is rookie mistake 101. I'm not quite what has happened between now and the start of the day to cause such an extreme crash.

Bought some at 1147 earlier (few k), and topped up 1131 (20k) just now.
Up 8.7% from when I bought yesterday . Ended up buying some more around the 1137 mark all in about 35-40K. Alerted my dad who put in quite a bit.

NAV at fair was 1248.10p yesterday https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk...estment-trust/. So a 10% discount was available in the middle of the day (1125 at the lowest) which is a real rarity as the trust generally trades close to fair (if anything with a small premium). It actually made today's news - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investin...ares-discount/

In general, I think its worth monitoring these premiums, especially in a falling market, as you do get the occasional opportunity like this when people panic / stop losses kick in after a correction in the more volatile trusts. In general, I think people associate SMT way too much with Tesla, which is only a small holding % wise really and panic whenever tesla falls.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 24.02.2021 at 14:54.
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  #298  
Old 03.03.2021, 17:24
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Re: Another fundsmith question

For those interested, the new AGM has been uploaded.

https://youtu.be/IojZCeUjhRg

It'll make for a nice afternoon of indoor cycling while watching it
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  #299  
Old 04.03.2021, 11:04
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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These risks are part of the game. At least I'm buying rather than selling on the fall which is rookie mistake 101. I'm not quite what has happened between now and the start of the day to cause such an extreme crash.

Bought some at 1147 earlier (few k), and topped up 1131 (20k) just now.
Are you buying some more now that it has gone below 1100?
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Old 04.03.2021, 15:55
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Re: Another fundsmith question

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Are you buying some more now that it has gone below 1100?
If it still is like this at the end of the month - yes for sure.

I can't tell when the trough will be - but I do know that a significant discount from NAV is a buying opportunity. In general, volatility is a good thing as long as you have the stomach in ITs - the lows in share prices are amplified vs the lows in NAV.

I don't like holding ITs at a significant premium for the inverse reason. Especially if the premium is different from the medium term norm.

The chat about increasing bond yields I think really is pretty irrelevant to these kinds of growth companies. Change in market sentiment rather than reality. A correction is probably healthy nevertheless.

Despite flipping into some big discounts im still down about 50K this month. I'm not overly concerned - been hit by a bit of a triple wammy of a correction, my ITs moving to a discount amplifying the correction, and currency doubly amplifying these effects - but you get headwinds and tailwinds in this game and they all even out in the end as long as you don't panic.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 04.03.2021 at 16:57.
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