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Old 07.08.2018, 16:24
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Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

From Bloomberg to CNBC, NYT and even mainstream media, people are alerting of the impending "next crisis".

At present, I have few ETFs (emerging markets, tech, mid-cap, etc.) and some crypto (BTC, ETH, LTC, XMR, etc.) and would like to retain balanced exposure versus going full-crypto.

Questions:
1. Would you exit ETFs /stock market to begin with?
2. If yes, where would you hedge crypto? Rare earths? Gold? Silver?

Cheers for any tips!
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Old 07.08.2018, 16:26
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

Some under the bed, the rest into booze.
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Old 07.08.2018, 16:48
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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From Bloomberg to CNBC, NYT and even mainstream media, people are alerting of the impending "next crisis".

At present, I have few ETFs (emerging markets, tech, mid-cap, etc.) and some crypto (BTC, ETH, LTC, XMR, etc.) and would like to retain balanced exposure versus going full-crypto.

Questions:
1. Would you exit ETFs /stock market to begin with?
2. If yes, where would you hedge crypto? Rare earths? Gold? Silver?

Cheers for any tips!
There are 2 sorts of investors, those that believe they can market time but always underperform by doing so & those that realise it's impossible.
There has been negative comment for the last 10 years, it was never a good time to invest had you read the papers. Markets could easily rise 30%, 50% or 150% before falling 25% or it could fall tomorrow. Staying invested will give you the best return over time.
Plenty of negative comment of may favourite fund Fundsmith over the last 6 years & why the strategy would fail, it's up over 150% yet those same people say it's a bad strategy & their recommendations have substantially underperformed.
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Old 07.08.2018, 17:07
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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There are 2 sorts of investors, those that believe they can market time but always underperform by doing so & those that realise it's impossible.
There has been negative comment for the last 10 years, it was never a good time to invest had you read the papers. Markets could easily rise 30%, 50% or 150% before falling 25% or it could fall tomorrow. Staying invested will give you the best return over time.
Plenty of negative comment of may favourite fund Fundsmith over the last 6 years & why the strategy would fail, it's up over 150% yet those same people say it's a bad strategy & their recommendations have substantially underperformed.
I *know* that timing the market is detrimental, hence my first question "should I move in the first place at all"... But good point, I like the mix of Fundsmith and should revisit.
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Old 07.08.2018, 18:29
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

There was a reddit post about someone investing during the 2008 crisis. General idea was to ride it out and continue investing as if nothing happened and balancing your portfolio.

That's assuming you still have your job and money to ride it out.
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Old 08.08.2018, 10:10
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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Plenty of negative comment of may favourite fund Fundsmith over the last 6 years & why the strategy would fail, it's up over 150% yet those same people say it's a bad strategy & their recommendations have substantially underperformed.
I stand by my point that it's crazy to invest anywhere close to 100% of your wealth in a single investment, whatever that may be (including your home).
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Old 08.08.2018, 10:50
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

If you dont feel safe with stocks, why you dont invest in something else? for example, buy a flat in some other country for cheap, e.g.: 20k and rent it...

Buy or Open a new business, that could be another option...

Regardless of all i have said, just remember that NOTHING IS GUARANTEED TO BE SAFE... Markets can collapse, the house can collapse if there is a earthquake, business can go bankrupt, etc etc etc

With that in mind, invest anyways, you will learn over the time what was the best way to invest over the time, if you loose cash, then as an opposite you will learn - the hard way maybe - but you will have learnt and thats an important thing, and in the other hand, if you win, well... you will win
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Old 08.08.2018, 20:22
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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I stand by my point that it's crazy to invest anywhere close to 100% of your wealth in a single investment, whatever that may be (including your home).
I was never under the impression this was an all-in thing; rather part of diversification and, as I read it, a good alternative to ETF the likes of Nasdaq /S&P500
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Old 08.08.2018, 20:45
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

There is never a good time to invest = it's always a good time to invest.
Buy shares, hold forever.
Diversify.
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Old 08.08.2018, 20:59
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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From Bloomberg to CNBC, NYT and even mainstream media, people are alerting of the impending "next crisis".
Commonly referred to as the talking heads and are best ignored

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versus going full-crypto.
At best currency speculation, at worst about the same as buying tulips

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Questions:
1. Would you exit ETFs /stock market to begin with?
2. If yes, where would you hedge crypto? Rare earths? Gold? Silver?

Cheers for any tips!
Honestly the best thing you could do to improve your changes would be to invest 4 to 6 months in learning all about investing, what works and what does not.

Generally speaking though, well balances portfolios do best over the long term and no that does not mean crypto etc... In recessionary times the stables tend to do best - you can put of purchasing a new car, but you need to buy bread. During a recession it is worth keeping an eye out for solid lux goods companies on sale - Tiffany and Richemont for example, as they will do well coming out of the recession.
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Old 09.08.2018, 08:58
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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I stand by my point that it's crazy to invest anywhere close to 100% of your wealth in a single investment, whatever that may be (including your home).
Most people with a mortgage invest 400% plus of their net worth in a home.

Fundsmith holds 27 investments, once you pass 21 investments further diversification makes very little difference to overall result.

You can be sure a market is about to crash when people who don't normally talk about investments start chatting & posting on Facebook. Last December is a very good example with BITCOIN. Nothing like this is happening in the equities market yet.
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Old 09.08.2018, 10:45
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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Most people with a mortgage invest 400% plus of their net worth in a home.
Actually they break pretty much every rule of thumb with it comes to investing:

- Borrow to invest
- Fail to diversify in terms of asset class
- Fail to diversify within the asset class: a single apartment or house
- Invest in an illiquid asset
- Invest in a high risk asset class
- Accepts a low rate of return given the risk level

But none of that matters when you are getting on the property ladder, right? WRONG! In the last recession Irish citizens saw more of their wealth wiped out than any other state. Many of them are still waiting for the property prices to recover.....
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Old 09.08.2018, 10:51
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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There is never a good time to invest = it's always a good time to invest.
Buy shares, hold forever.
Diversify.
Diversify = YES
Buy a S&P 500 Index = NO

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Old 09.08.2018, 13:12
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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Most people with a mortgage invest 400% plus of their net worth in a home.
That's why I mentioned homes.
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Fundsmith holds 27 investments, once you pass 21 investments further diversification makes very little difference to overall result.
Provided you diversify across sectors and countries. Holding 30 different US retailers, say, provides next to no diversification. Last time I checked Fundsmith was far too contentrated to enjoy much of a diversification effect.

I'm not saying FS is a bad investment, not at all. Just that you shouldn't expect it to provide much protection by diversification.
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You can be sure a market is about to crash when people who don't normally talk about investments start chatting & posting on Facebook. Last December is a very good example with BITCOIN. Nothing like this is happening in the equities market yet.
Generally agreed, though I wouldn't call it a certainty. It's very difficult to avoid hindsight bias.
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I was never under the impression this was an all-in thing; rather part of diversification and, as I read it, a good alternative to ETF the likes of Nasdaq /S&P500
In that case I posit you didn't see FMF's posts on FS a couple years or so ago. Or perhaps he tells us how much of his holdings, and of his net worth, are tied up in FS.
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Old 09.08.2018, 13:24
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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That's why I mentioned homes.
Provided you diversify across sectors and countries. Holding 30 different US retailers, say, provides next to no diversification. Last time I checked Fundsmith was far too contentrated to enjoy much of a diversification effect.

I'm not saying FS is a bad investment, not at all. Just that you shouldn't expect it to provide much protection by diversification.
You need to look at the FS business's & where they earn their profits, country of listing is irrelevant as any share holder of Nestle should know as only 2% of profits are from CH, likewise Philip Morris International does zero business in the USA but is classified as a US investment due to listing. None of the business's are cyclical, they have lower borrowings & higher profits. Diabetics still require insulin & syringes regardless of the state of the economy. (Thats 2 companies of the 27)

FS holds ZERO retailers, Return on capital employed is too poor.

The defensive portfolio did extremely well during the financial crisis 2003-2010 returned over 14% compound. (Tullet Prebon pension fund which was only 20 stocks managed by Terry Smith before launching FS)

Buying lower quality business's will not protect you however many poor business's you buy.....
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Old 09.08.2018, 13:39
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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FS holds ZERO retailers, Return on capital employed is too poor.
Perhaps look up the meaning of "example". The context is diversification, not FS's holdings.

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I would invest all in www.fundsmith.eu / Fundsmith.co.uk which I have been recommending for 3 years now on EF. 2015 saw a rise of 15.7% for investors & 22.2% for Euro investors.
Now, this quote is a bit out of context as it applies to "only" 40% of OP's annual savings. But I have no doubt FMF would have said the same had the question been on the full 40-50k annual savings. If willing, I'm pretty sure one could find him not just say so about his own holdings, which is fine as it's his own money, but actually recommending this to others.

The quote is from this thread.
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Old 09.08.2018, 13:40
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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You need to look at the FS business's & where they earn their profits, country of listing is irrelevant as any share holder of Nestle should know as only 2% of profits are from CH, likewise Philip Morris International does zero business in the USA but is classified as a US investment due to listing. None of the business's are cyclical, they have lower borrowings & higher profits. Diabetics still require insulin & syringes regardless of the state of the economy. (Thats 2 companies of the 27)

FS holds ZERO retailers, Return on capital employed is too poor.

The defensive portfolio did extremely well during the financial crisis 2003-2010 returned over 14% compound. (Tullet Prebon pension fund which was only 20 stocks managed by Terry Smith before launching FS)

Buying lower quality business's will not protect you however many poor business's you buy.....
I would agree more with fatmanfilms, that the fund is diversified enough (27 stocks is quite a lot) and also holds high quality companies with stable earnings, large moats, etc.. Sure, some businesses he holds would be hit by an economic downturn, as would the share prices of those businesses, but it's not likely to last a long time and it's a long-term investment.

Too much diversification just results in the market average, so if you want thorough diversification I guess you'd be better off in a basket of broad ETFs along with bond funds, etc. - although bonds tend to follow stock prices anyway these days. and yields are low.

Ray Dalio has a lot of commentary on his 'all-weather-portfolio' where he picks assets that are as uncorrelated as possible, but I wouldn't want to invest in that myself. Seems more tuned to protection rather than growth. I want growth (and take the risk that comes with it)

If you're worried you won't be able to stomach the inevitable losses that you will experience some time in the future, maybe cash is the best bet to reduce your stock exposure. You then lose the opportunity for growth though and most importantly, nobody can time the market

I don't hold any Fundsmith btw. I have a small amount with Nick Train and the rest in individual stocks. I'm too cheapskate to pay the 1% annual fees
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Old 09.08.2018, 13:49
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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Perhaps look up the meaning of "example". The context is diversification, not FS's holdings.

Now, this quote is a bit out of context as it applies to "only" 40% of OP's annual savings. But I have no doubt FMF would have said the same had the question been on the full 40-50k annual savings. If willing, I'm pretty sure one could find him not just say so about his own holdings, which is fine as it's his own money, but actually recommending this to others.

The quote is from this thread.
Perhaps you could read this on diversification.
https://www.ft.com/content/220c76fe-...c-00144feabdc0
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett famously stated that "diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing." ... Especially in the wake of scandals such as Enron.

This is also worth a read - A Random portfolio of 32 stocks gives 95% of the benefits of diversification v owning the entire market.
https://www.investopedia.com/article...sification.asp
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Old 09.08.2018, 14:52
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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I would agree more with fatmanfilms, that the fund is diversified enough (27 stocks is quite a lot) and also holds high quality companies with stable earnings, large moats, etc.. Sure, some businesses he holds would be hit by an economic downturn, as would the share prices of those businesses, but it's not likely to last a long time and it's a long-term investment.
80-85% are invested in consumer staples, healthcare and IT. 2/3 are invested in the US, another 20% in the UK. That's anything but diversified.

I'm not saying that's inherently bad if you have an idea of what you're doing, or that's it's a poor decision.

What I am saying is that it's very risky to invest a majority or even all your savings in any such undiversified basket. To recommend to unsavvy posters that they invest all their eggs in such a vehicle is both irresponsible and reckless, it borders on criminal at least in layman's terms.
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This is also worth a read - A Random portfolio of 32 stocks gives 95% of the benefits of diversification v owning the entire market.
https://www.investopedia.com/article...sification.asp
That article's comment on the study by Fisher/Lorie in the '70ies, which everybody seems to "know" about, is, that the claim isn't really true.

What's more, the table you pictured is from a later study and essentially says that even with a portfolio of 60 stocks (that is, with 12% of the chosen stock universe actually bought) you are less than 90% diversified. And even that is only relative to the stock universe considered, the SP500 in this case, rather than the US stock market or the world's.

You know, it would help to have read the article before you quote. Perhaps you elect to do so now.

As for that Buffett quote - I guess it makes perfect sense if you're Buffett. Unfortunately there's only one, just like there's only one Charlie Munger.
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Old 09.08.2018, 15:03
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Re: Investments During the Next Financial Crisis

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80-85% are invested in consumer staples, healthcare and IT. 2/3 are invested in the US, another 20% in the UK. That's anything but diversified.

I'm not saying that's inherently bad if you have an idea of what you're doing, or that's it's a poor decision.

What I am saying is that it's very risky to invest a majority or even all your savings in any such undiversified basket. To recommend to unsavvy posters that they invest all their eggs in such a vehicle is both irresponsible and reckless, it borders on criminal at least in layman's terms.
At the end of the day, you're betting on the skills of Terry Smith, if you believe in active investment rather than 'efficient markets'. Active managers, on average, will obtain a lower return than their benchmark due to fees, so you need to pick one of the good ones.

'Risky' - I'm not sure. Business quality is very important with regards to risk and it depends how you define risk. More volatile, maybe.

Anyone investing in something due to a stranger on a forum without doing any research is probably not going to have much success.

As mentioned, I don't have any fundsmith. I'm not a fundsmith fanboy. I do have a concentrated portfolio though.

Pay your money and make your choice
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