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  #181  
Old 31.03.2020, 13:23
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Actually, oil price down is positive for the economy right now.
well. some parts.

it's a death sentence for US shale (a good thing IMO for them to be taken off life support). other industries which would have benefitted (airlines) are anyway in zombie mode.

oil was anyway very cheap and so net-net, i think the added uncertainty perhaps worsens the situation even if it does slightly reduce some costs.
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  #182  
Old 31.03.2020, 13:37
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Correct, it is positive but the economy can't take advantage of it. You can store oil at low prices and that's what they do but storage capacity is limited.

For Europe (EU and CH), that in general imports oil, low prices are super positive.

For Canada for example it is negative. For US it is mixed etc.
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  #183  
Old 31.03.2020, 13:42
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Correct, it is positive but the economy can't take advantage of it. You can store oil at low prices and that's what they do but storage capacity is limited.

For Europe (EU and CH), that in general imports oil, low prices are super positive.

For Canada for example it is negative. For US it is mixed etc.
will be interesting when the storage is soon filled up and they have to stop pumping.
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  #184  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:33
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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will be interesting when the storage is soon filled up and they have to stop pumping.
2 to 4 months

https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-...-idUSL8N2BK692
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  #185  
Old 31.03.2020, 16:23
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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The NASDAQ technology market is gaining ground today after streak of losses. Let’s hope that the market that hit the bottom in mid of March 2020 has been reversing.
Somehow I cannot see the second leg but the technology market is slowly clawing back. Maybe the people decide about it and the current ongoing circumstances instead of the past history.

Last edited by jacek; 31.03.2020 at 16:34.
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  #186  
Old 31.03.2020, 17:23
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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will be interesting when the storage is soon filled up and they have to stop pumping.
It's happening right now. Some of the smaller US & Canadian companies can't find any takers to sell any oil.

I read somewhere, even Aramco is having difficulties to find buyers in Europe.
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  #187  
Old 31.03.2020, 22:01
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Who needs oil when we are all home, we are not buying anything made of plastic and we are not travelling anywhere?

It's a double whammy of supply going up and demand disappearing.
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  #188  
Old 03.04.2020, 17:30
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Why you say this? Because I used everybody?


You in turn you just attacking me in an online forum? Why? If you don't agree with me write your predictions.
He can't help himself.
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  #189  
Old 03.04.2020, 17:50
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Wait for insolvency/bankruptcies. Right now there must be a lot of companies trying to avoid insolvency. People defaulting on their car and home loans is a story that has not even started.
Cash is king for companies and individuals right now. Luckily I sold everything late Feb pre-crash and am now sitting on the sidelines - ideally I'd just re-buy my previous high-performing portfolio back at sale prices once I see a reasonable bottom, but I cannot assume that will be possible as there are many companies that will not ride out this crisis - they will fold entirely, be bought up, or perhaps reduce their operational markets - and obviously the post-crisis will throw up new and possibly better opportunities.
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  #190  
Old 03.04.2020, 17:53
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Cash is king for companies and individuals right now. Luckily I sold everything late Feb pre-crash and am now sitting on the sidelines - ideally I'd just re-buy my previous high-performing portfolio back at sale prices once I see a reasonable bottom, but I cannot assume that will be possible as there are many companies that will not ride out this crisis - they will fold entirely, be bought up, or perhaps reduce their operational markets - and obviously the post-crisis will throw up new and possibly better opportunities.
The bottom was about 20% below where we are now, how do you think you will possibly spot it, in the future if you were a a successful market timer you would be well up by repurchasing..
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  #191  
Old 03.04.2020, 20:46
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Cash is king for companies and individuals right now. Luckily I sold everything late Feb pre-crash and am now sitting on the sidelines - ideally I'd just re-buy my previous high-performing portfolio back at sale prices once I see a reasonable bottom, but I cannot assume that will be possible as there are many companies that will not ride out this crisis - they will fold entirely, be bought up, or perhaps reduce their operational markets - and obviously the post-crisis will throw up new and possibly better opportunities.
You just missed the bottom 2 weeks ago and you may miss the next bottom if there will be one. 2% chance that you will manage to buy at the bottom. Almost nobody can.
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  #192  
Old 03.04.2020, 22:41
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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You just missed the bottom 2 weeks ago and you may miss the next bottom if there will be one. 2% chance that you will manage to buy at the bottom. Almost nobody can.
Buying at the absolute bottom isn't critical and what most laymen (including me) mean when they say it is basically: "a good and low enough price close enough to the bottom-ish to still make a tidy profit".
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  #193  
Old 04.04.2020, 09:20
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Buying at the absolute bottom isn't critical and what most laymen (including me) mean when they say it is basically: "a good and low enough price close enough to the bottom-ish to still make a tidy profit".
During the recent market turmoil finding the bottom was very difficult. Obviously you try to be as near the bottom as possible but it is not easy. Tidy profit is not enough, you want to make a good profit with these moves.
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  #194  
Old 04.04.2020, 14:04
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Buying at the absolute bottom isn't critical and what most laymen (including me) mean when they say it is basically: "a good and low enough price close enough to the bottom-ish to still make a tidy profit".
That would be now
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  #195  
Old 04.04.2020, 17:01
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

I got a call from my customer-representative at ZKB this week.

Seems they're calling up people to invest again ;-)

That said, they also urged people to invest at the end of last year, so I take it with a grain of salt.

Also, I've decided to buy a small apartment in Germany (it does not cost a lot of money, as it's quite old - I wouldn't call it cheap though) so I use up some of my cash for that.

Of course, buying real-estate at the beging of what could end up being a depression might not be the smartest thing. But what do I know?
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  #196  
Old 04.04.2020, 20:51
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

My portfolio has re-bounced, a little bit anyway...

I notice Fundsmith recovering fastest, followed by Smithson and Lindsell Train (which is 25% down)

Thoughts on who will come above zero fastest?
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  #197  
Old 04.04.2020, 23:42
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Crashes will always be bigger going forward as the market has probably doubled in size over the 10 years. They can be ignored by long term investors just try to find 1987 on the Dow Jones graph below.
When charting a range that is many multiples of the starting value, it's much more useful to use a logarithmic scale. That way the same vertical distance represents the same percentage or factorial change anywhere on the curve. With your chart however, 1cm at left end of the curve may represent a tenfold increase whereas at the right end the same 1cm may be as little as a 10% change, so it will most always move like a rocket on its way to the stars at the right end.
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Actually, oil price down is positive for the economy right now.
For the US economy? Why?
Domestically it's a zero sum game, the consumers' savings are the producers' lost revenues. But the US are a net exporter (maybe I should say "were until recently") and that income probably disappeared by now, that should make the price drop an overall negative factor.
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  #198  
Old 05.04.2020, 06:52
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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For the US economy? Why?
Domestically it's a zero sum game, the consumers' savings are the producers' lost revenues. But the US are a net exporter (maybe I should say "were until recently") and that income probably disappeared by now, that should make the price drop an overall negative factor.

Yes, look at my post #182

I don't think that the US is net exporter but I haven't checked the figures. US is the no 1 producer of oil.
Issue with US oil industry is that fracking is uneconomical but Trump is bailing them out anyway.

Most likely would be better to buy Canadian oil at $5pb and pay the frackers unemployment benefits at least for 1 year. Then oil prices will bounce back and potential they can restart fracking.
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  #199  
Old 09.04.2020, 20:15
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Interesting read:https://www.ccn.com/dow-jones-to-plu...esearch-warns/

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The Dow Jones and worldwide stock markets will fall by as much as 50%, global asset manager Unigestion has warned. Despite recent bounces, Unigestion is predicting massive selloffs in the coming months as the coronavirus pandemic worsens.

The London-based company has also predicted a recession on the scale of the 2007-08 global financial crisis.

Itís not the only researcher predicting a stock market bloodbath: analysts TS Lombard have predicted that the S&P 500 will fall by at least 40% from this yearís highs.
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  #200  
Old 09.04.2020, 20:35
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Why did they not put out their research note in December, January or February? They have no idea & need to write for a living as they have not been ahead of the markets to date.
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