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  #201  
Old 09.04.2020, 20:40
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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My portfolio has re-bounced, a little bit anyway...

I notice Fundsmith recovering fastest, followed by Smithson and Lindsell Train (which is 25% down)

Thoughts on who will come above zero fastest?
Fundsmith is without doubt the safest long term investment, Smithson will be more Volatile however will produce the highest returns on a 5 - 10 year view., Lindsell Train is the highest risk, even through it has a similar no of stocks to FS the individual proportions are way higher & have been flouting regulations over the last year. Interestingly 'technical' investors that looked at 3 year alfa & risk returns did not get this.

Diversification always comes at a price as you have to buy lower quality assets which increases rather than decreases risk.

EDIT both Fundsmith & Smithson are in profit on a 1 year view, Smithson + 3.39% Fundsmith + 0.7% both beating the returns on cash, LT is down 3.59% hardly anything to lose sleep about.

FWIW I added to Smithson today

Last edited by fatmanfilms; 09.04.2020 at 21:09.
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  #202  
Old 10.04.2020, 10:02
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Got this from twitter. It would be really hard to find a better way to explain the current disconnection from fundamentals and equity prices Stay safe

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  #203  
Old 10.04.2020, 23:04
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Got this from twitter. It would be really hard to find a better way to explain the current disconnection from fundamentals and equity prices Stay safe
Cramer is fun to watch. Occasionally and only in small doses.

The Fed put is working extremely well, Powell has announced that they'll pump trillions into the economy.

$4 trillions ~10 days ago
Another $2.3trillion the last couple days, as a result the financials are shooting up like a rocket. Must have been rumored for about 4 days as that's when the financials started their 20% gainback

More's to come I wager. For Wallstreet, not the John Doe's.
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  #204  
Old 11.04.2020, 10:03
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Got this from twitter. It would be really hard to find a better way to explain the current disconnection from fundamentals and equity prices Stay safe

You can never second guess the market price tomorrow as you don't know if buyers will outnumber sellers or vice versa. Far better just to invest in great business's with superior cash flows, high return on capital & low gearing & enjoy the ride.
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  #205  
Old 11.04.2020, 11:08
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Reminds me of Nero fiddling whilst Rome burned.
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  #206  
Old 11.04.2020, 13:42
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

OPINION | What Federer, Nadal and Djocovic teach us about investing in a crisis

https://m.fin24.com/Opinion/opinion-...409?isapp=true
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  #207  
Old 11.04.2020, 13:54
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Cramer is fun to watch. Occasionally and only in small doses.

The Fed put is working extremely well, Powell has announced that they'll pump trillions into the economy.

$4 trillions ~10 days ago
Another $2.3trillion the last couple days, as a result the financials are shooting up like a rocket. Must have been rumored for about 4 days as that's when the financials started their 20% gainback

More's to come I wager. For Wallstreet, not the John Doe's.

Punch bowl is refilled. May the party never end!

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  #208  
Old 13.04.2020, 10:47
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Goldman Says U.S. Stocks Have Likely Bottomed on Policy Support
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldm...073609205.html
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  #209  
Old 13.04.2020, 10:54
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Perfect, all those policy support measures are filling in the Italian, Spanish and Greek hotels, restaurants and bars with people. I see dollars flying with airlines and cheques going back to work across cinemas, bowling centers and sports centers that are filled with other dollars from those measures.

Don't be stupid, the smart money are pumping this like crazy so they can all get out and sell to the retail schmuck. There's a huge recession coming and the stock markets are going to take a huge dive in the coming months. The average bear market lasts 14 months, not 1 month LOL

People think are so clever they're all going to pull another 2009 and be uber rich. Well market has a way of grounding everyone into reality.

All we need is a Black Swan event or a big bad news catalyst and you'll see what's going to happen. My guess is, those thought treated have the virus inside them reactivated and huge outbreaks happen again in China, Korea, Italy, US etc. They already found 91 people cured people in Korea that had the virus again.
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  #210  
Old 13.04.2020, 11:05
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Perfect, all those policy support measures are filling in the Italian, Spanish and Greek hotels, restaurants and bars with people. I see dollars flying with airlines and cheques going back to work across cinemas, bowling centers and sports centers that are filled with other dollars from those measures.

Don't be stupid, the smart money are pumping this like crazy so they can all get out and sell to the retail schmuck. There's a huge recession coming and the stock markets are going to take a huge dive in the coming months. The average bear market lasts 14 months, not 1 month LOL

People think are so clever they're all going to pull another 2009 and be uber rich. Well market has a way of grounding everyone into reality.

All we need is a Black Swan event or a big bad news catalyst and you'll see what's going to happen. My guess is, those thought treated have the virus inside them reactivated and huge outbreaks happen again in China, Korea, Italy, US etc. They already found 91 people cured people in Korea that had the virus again.
Not many of those Spanish, Greek & Italian Hotels are traded in the US. It's always good when there are opposing views, I will get worried when people start agreeing.

We know the test is very unreliable........
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  #211  
Old 13.04.2020, 12:22
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Ok let's talka bout the US if you like.

16.6 million unemployed in the last 3 weeks and the numbers keep going up every week like crazy. Thousands of bars, restaurants, hotels, cruises, street merchants will close down.

Who is going to jump into an airplane anytime soon after the scenes in NY?

This virus is still rampaging free in the US and will need a few more weeks to burn out. By then, the economic catastrophe will be unparalleled.

How the hell do you think any stimulus is going to help? A bankrupt company is gone forever will all the employees it kept on its payroll.

Domino effects.

As I said, smart money are pumping the market right now and dumping to greater fools. Anyone sucked in now will face an almost total wipeout of their wealth.

Play it safe, go to 100% cash and wait it out. Once we're lower than the previous bottom by another 20% start to dribble money in bit by bit.

Protect your capital above everything else.
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  #212  
Old 13.04.2020, 12:28
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Ok let's talka bout the US if you like.

16.6 million unemployed in the last 3 weeks and the numbers keep going up every week like crazy. Thousands of bars, restaurants, hotels, cruises, street merchants will close down.

Who is going to jump into an airplane anytime soon after the scenes in NY?

This virus is still rampaging free in the US and will need a few more weeks to burn out. By then, the economic catastrophe will be unparalleled.

How the hell do you think any stimulus is going to help? A bankrupt company is gone forever will all the employees it kept on its payroll.

Domino effects.

As I said, smart money are pumping the market right now and dumping to greater fools. Anyone sucked in now will face an almost total wipeout of their wealth.

Play it safe, go to 100% cash and wait it out. Once we're lower than the previous bottom by another 20% start to dribble money in bit by bit.

Protect your capital above everything else.
Unemployment is hugely good for company profits, it's easy to offload the dead wood & salary expectations drop.

Never invest in an airline, profits for the complete industry since the Wright Brothers first flew is ZERO.

There have been 2 of the best weeks in 70 years occurred in the last 4 weeks, holding cash is a way to reduce your return over time.
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  #213  
Old 14.04.2020, 11:09
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

I sold most of your stuff before the Coronavirus crisis really went global, and have bought some Gold and Bit Coin. It probably won't make any money but at least it will be secure from all the quantitative easing that is about to take place. For what it's worth, I still think it's too early to start investing again.
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  #214  
Old 14.04.2020, 11:33
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Ok let's talka bout the US if you like.

16.6 million unemployed in the last 3 weeks and the numbers keep going up every week like crazy. Thousands of bars, restaurants, hotels, cruises, street merchants will close down.

Who is going to jump into an airplane anytime soon after the scenes in NY?
Plenty of people will jump on planes when they are allowed to. There are more than enough people with jobs and/or the money to take a cheap plane ticket to escape the city or to go and see family that they have not been able to see for weeks. Like china, people will jump at the chance to travel and ease their psychological burden and feelings of confinement.
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  #215  
Old 14.04.2020, 12:29
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Reminds me of Nero fiddling whilst Rome burned.
I never thought were that old.
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  #216  
Old 14.04.2020, 12:32
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Plenty of people will jump on planes when they are allowed to. There are more than enough people with jobs and/or the money to take a cheap plane ticket to escape the city or to go and see family that they have not been able to see for weeks. Like china, people will jump at the chance to travel and ease their psychological burden and feelings of confinement.
Same with all sorts of luxury goods and entertainment, fine dining etc. As soon as these things start reopening there is going to be a huge squeeze as lots and lots of people try to catch up on what they've been missing out on. As a result, providers can hike prices to try and cool off the demand side a little and that's going to mean jackpot earnings.
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  #217  
Old 14.04.2020, 13:54
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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16.6 million unemployed in the last 3 weeks and the numbers keep going up every week like crazy. Thousands of bars, restaurants, hotels, cruises, street merchants will close down.
Yes, that's the ugly side of a market-driven economy and one reason I wouldn't want to live in the USA. However those companies going bust make space for their better suited competitors. With zero-interest rates these weaknesses all too often don't show until a recession hits.
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The average bear market lasts 14 months, not 1 month LOL
At least one question should be how long it took the cause to develop, recessions usually last 2-3 calendar quarters "only". In 1987 however, which came out of the blue and saw vicious and fast drops like we've just seen, the bear lasted less than 3 months.

With a black swan like the Coronavirus the economic downswing may be shortened to a few weeks. Personally I'd love to see a retest of the low at around 2250 (SP500) for a new wave of the spring sale I mentioned a while ago but it doesn't look like we'll get that, not least because central banks and governments reacted at once.

JPM missed the mark for Q1 by 60% and appears to have suspended providing guidance, yet the stock is up in premarket trading. JNJ likewise. WFC to report today as well, we'll see how that's received.
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  #218  
Old 14.04.2020, 14:29
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I never thought were that old.
That was a previous life. I was the guy pouring the wine
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  #219  
Old 20.04.2020, 15:55
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

......and the tanks are full, no volume left to store oil https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...h-storage-woes
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Old 21.04.2020, 19:19
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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You just missed the bottom 2 weeks ago and you may miss the next bottom if there will be one. 2% chance that you will manage to buy at the bottom. Almost nobody can.
Agreed - almost impossible - but I'll be happy enough the closer I get. Not yet convinced we're out of the woods, but if I'm wrong so be it.
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