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Old 05.06.2020, 13:42
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Remarkable that the markets are still on a run and many have recouped all the losses from the the early Covid related drops. Still totally artificial in my opinion, US unemployment at +30 million, the printing presses whirring away yet inflation at 0.3%, companies about to post massive losses yet little impact seen on market value. Probably never been a greater disparity between Wall Street and the man on the street!
To quote Krugman: "whenever you consider the economic implications of stock prices, you want to remember three rules. First, the stock market is not the economy. Second, the stock market is not the economy. Third, the stock market is not the economy."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/o...ronavirus.html
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  #242  
Old 05.06.2020, 14:11
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Is it a dead cat bounce?
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  #243  
Old 05.06.2020, 14:29
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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To quote Krugman: "whenever you consider the economic implications of stock prices, you want to remember three rules. First, the stock market is not the economy. Second, the stock market is not the economy. Third, the stock market is not the economy."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/o...ronavirus.html
Indeed, people investing in the stock market because there's nowhere else to invest. I'm sure things will start to get fun when a few more of those companies people have invested in start to go bust!
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Old 05.06.2020, 14:42
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I'm still not so sure, wait for companies to start releasing quarterly results to give an idea of how bad things really are and that could put the frighteners on investors. Oil price is a good indicator of what's to come. Apple delaying iPhone production, Airbus on the ropes, all small indicators that the dead cat could yet come crashing back to Earth.
Apple has always been a bit of one off and not really indicative of the broader market.

The thing with Airbus and many comparable companies is that they don't make the demand (in the way that say, Apple does), they only satisfy it. If they lose market share, other manufacturers will step in and take their place. It's the sum that is interesting to look at here, not individual manufacturers who may be struggling relative to oneanother.

I do think that the flight and tourism industry as a whole may have a long and slow recovery ahead as things like social distancing and the general risk of getting infected in foreign countries will dampen people's eagerness to travel. But if that is the case, it only means they will be spending that money on other things.
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  #245  
Old 05.06.2020, 16:02
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

I think they will save the money.
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  #246  
Old 09.06.2020, 14:59
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

with major indices having recovored to pre-covid levels, how did those who sold do? what level did you buy back? or are you waiting for a re-test?

last days have made me nervous. there seems to be too much euphoria. too much money piling in. seems like a bad sign to me...
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  #247  
Old 09.06.2020, 15:16
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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with major indices having recovored to pre-covid levels, how did those who sold do? what level did you buy back? or are you waiting for a re-test?

last days have made me nervous. there seems to be too much euphoria. too much money piling in. seems like a bad sign to me...
Things could well be a bit volatile from here, however many companies will have been able to get rid of over paid staff without any industrial action, British Airways comes to mind, so a couple of years down the line profits will be considerably higher. FWIW British Airways employs 4 times as many staff per plane as Easy Jet, the long time cabin crew receive more than twice the pay too.
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  #248  
Old 15.06.2020, 10:03
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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To quote Krugman: "whenever you consider the economic implications of stock prices, you want to remember three rules. First, the stock market is not the economy. Second, the stock market is not the economy. Third, the stock market is not the economy."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/o...ronavirus.html
There's an interesting piece on Zerohedge (now reinstated on Twitter ) analysing just that statement that "the stock market is not the economy". Worth a read!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gr...stocks-economy
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  #249  
Old 15.06.2020, 10:43
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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There's an interesting piece on Zerohedge (now reinstated on Twitter ) analysing just that statement that "the stock market is not the economy". Worth a read!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gr...stocks-economy
Zero Hedge is fun on twitter because of the catchy headlines but the fun is missing in the blog The unemployment rate graph was the more interesting one. I'd prefer to look at loan data because there's people generating income from the black economy (not measured in the unemployment data) but with a loan in the legal economy (totally measurable).

I'm waiting for the Q2-2020 loan delinquency rates that will be published around the 1st or 2nd week of August. Up to March 31st, the delinquency rate in personal loans, mortgage and student loans was fine. Let' see what's reported next August https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevent.../2020/20200505



A thing is different this time, the average auto loan term in March 2020 was 70.6 months (7 ******* years). 70% of new Q1-2020 car loan terms were longer than 60 months. My inner bear just wonders what fraction of the current 7 year car loans is underwater by design (depreciation hit after taking a new car from dealership), and the collapse of prices that will used car oversupply driven by the incoming economic contraction.

https://www.edmunds.com/car-loan/how...r-loan-be.html
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  #250  
Old 15.06.2020, 19:43
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

This article is well researched and written. It might give you some other ideas about where to invest.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...llapse/612247/

- Marcus
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  #251  
Old 16.06.2020, 14:46
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

The US markets look strong today in pre-session and should be able to recover the last week’s losses.

NQ=F $9'971.00 (+1.74%) on Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NQ=F?p=NQ=F
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  #252  
Old 16.06.2020, 15:14
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Btw: I’ve been approached lately by my old friend from South Africa currently living in Dubai and she encouraged me to start with CROWD1. Another pyramid scheme bound to collapse, scam to be avoided or legit business?

Any experience with it as an investment vehicle? Herewith an hour presentation that begs for many questions

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  #253  
Old 16.06.2020, 22:21
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

IIRC it is illegal around here to participate in a pyramid scheme.

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In November 2019, Norway's gaming and foundation authority, Lotteri- og stiftelsestilsynet, determined that Crowd1 operates with a pyramid structure to generate revenue.[15] In January 2020, in Burundi's largest city Bujumbura, Crowd1 was raided and over 300 people arrested, 17 of whom were placed in custody for promoting Crowd1, described as a Ponzi scheme.[19][20] In Paraguay on 6 February 2020 the Comisión Nacional de Valores (CNV) issued a securities fraud warning against Crowd1, advising against investment. CNV identifies Crowd1 as an unregistered securities offering. Promoters of Crowd1 in Paraguay face up to three years imprisonment or a fine.[21] On 21 February 2020 the Bank of Namibia declared Crowd1 a pyramid scheme and warned the promoters to stop their activities immediately. The bank stated "Crowd1 does not sell tangible products or render any service of essential value, but the primary source of income for Crowd1 is the sale of membership packages to new members". On 12 May 2020 the Philippines Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) directed Crowd1 Asia Pacific to immediately stop its “fraudulent” investing-taking activities. On 5 June 2020 the New Zealand Financial Markets Authority added Crowd1 and Impact Crowd Technology to its warning list due to concerns they may be involved in or operating a scam.
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  #254  
Old 22.06.2020, 22:32
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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TVIX for those willing to risk?
You need to hurry if you still intend to play that monster.

TVIX
VIIX
ZIV
will stop trading on their respective exchange on July 2, and will be delisted July 12.

More or less the same applies to
DGAZ
DSLV
DGLD
UGAZ
USLV
UGLD
as they will be delisted on July 12 as well.

They will still be tradeable OTC until the respective note falls due sometime in 2030-2032, but you should expect significant spreads.

Here's the announcement by CS.
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  #255  
Old 21.07.2020, 20:24
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I now believe with an 80% degree of certainty that the stock market low was late March.

Looking back at history to March 1933, the low was just before Roosevelt printed money to create credit. 2008 low was just before the Federal Government decided to bail out the Banks. All Governments seem to be throwing as much money as it takes in the current crisis.
This was from 27 April, S&P is now up a further 15% the Nasdaq 100 up about 25%. How are the market timers feeling? I suspect most will have repurchased at a higher price than they sold which is very normal human behaviour.
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  #256  
Old 21.07.2020, 20:29
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

I mostly sat it out and bought some more at a lower point.
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  #257  
Old 21.07.2020, 20:31
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Can somebody be so kind and explain to me what had happened to the GoPro stock since its IPO. Within a short period of time, it peaked at around 80 and some change and then basically went down the drain.
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Old 21.07.2020, 20:39
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Can somebody be so kind and explain to me what had happened to the GoPro stock since its IPO. Within a short period of time, it peaked at around 80 and some change and then basically went down the drain.
They don't make any profit, so their future cash flows are worth very little. Rather like Tesla today just the market has not realised yet. Amazon trades on 150 years earnings so is making bugger all profit either. Time will tell as investors ultimately want profit & nothing else.
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Old 21.07.2020, 22:51
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Can somebody be so kind and explain to me what had happened to the GoPro stock since its IPO. Within a short period of time, it peaked at around 80 and some change and then basically went down the drain.
GoPro is a one-trick pony with slowly shrinking revenues, far from impressive margins, that just keeps losing money. It kept growing until (perhaps shortly after) the IPO, without growth the valuation became untenable so the share price collapsed. Unless something fundamental changes to the better they will simply wither away over time.

Fitbit is the same, albeit with a market that shrinks much faster, probably due to smartphones stealing their market. Taser was as well, though they were never as hot as the other two IIRC.
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