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  #281  
Old 17.08.2020, 23:46
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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what's this, pls?
East Asian focussed trust. Performed well over the last 5 years (+200%) I added it to reduce my overexposure to the us market a little.
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  #282  
Old 17.08.2020, 23:48
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

I have always been fan of Intel but they need to give a respect where respect is due, in which case AMD deserves fanfare with its new 7nm chips that they have nailed. New saga begins and don’t be fooled by old overrated players, think fabless chipmakers instead
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  #283  
Old 18.08.2020, 00:54
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I have always been fan of Intel but they need to give a respect where respect is due, in which case AMD deserves fanfare with its new 7nm chips that they have nailed. New saga begins and don’t be fooled by old overrated players, think fabless chipmakers instead
mind you, Intel and AMD are not playing in the same ballback. Yes they both do chips, but:
- Intel eats AMD for lunch in terms of free cash flow and revenues.
- Intel is active in IoT, 5G and autonomous driving, besides making chips.
- Intel is de facto standard in datacenter HW where AMD does not really have a footprint yet. (this might change though)

disclaimer: I'm long INTC
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  #284  
Old 18.08.2020, 09:16
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Todays low 1365
...and closed last night at $1832.65... (TSLA ORD)
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  #285  
Old 18.08.2020, 09:18
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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...and closed last night at $1832.65... (TSLA ORD)
Reminds me of BITCOIN a couple of years ago.
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  #286  
Old 18.08.2020, 23:20
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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East Asian focussed trust. Performed well over the last 5 years (+200%) I added it to reduce my overexposure to the us market a little.
aren't you concerned about the huge jump 330-500 GBP in prices for the last 6 months?

also aren't you concerned that a SE-Asia fund is denominated in GBP (whilst I assume you are earning a CHF salary)?

What are your expectations regarding GBP-CHF in the next years to come?
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  #287  
Old 18.08.2020, 23:41
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Reminds me of BITCOIN a couple of years ago.
TBF, Tesla does produce physical goods. And the buyers are generally happy with them. So, that's a good start.

Of the thousands of Model 3 sold last year, there are 20 or so for sale on autoscout24 at any time.
So, for all the flaws, the cars can't be that bad.

Doesn't mean that the valuation is insane (IMO), but that can be said about a lot of companies (and it's probably true).
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  #288  
Old 19.08.2020, 02:12
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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the analysts are terrible. most have no clue.
It's no use for them to be good.
Trying to excel brings the risk of underperformng and cost their job if they fail. Without sufficient incentive they'd be stupid to take that risk.
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  #289  
Old 19.08.2020, 07:51
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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...and closed last night at $1832.65... (TSLA ORD)
Almost 1900, up over 500 in just over a week, not a bad return if you have 50+ shares ($25,000)...
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  #290  
Old 19.08.2020, 07:53
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Todays low 1365
Did you buy any?
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  #291  
Old 19.08.2020, 09:09
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Did you buy any?
No as I don't believe the future cash flows justify the price or even 25% of the price. They have yet to produce 4 quarters of profit, I am only interested in profits that are received as cash rather than an accounting profit on paper.
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  #292  
Old 19.08.2020, 09:27
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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No as I don't believe the future cash flows justify the price or even 25% of the price. They have yet to produce 4 quarters of profit, I am only interested in profits that are received as cash rather than an accounting profit on paper.
I bought at $205 in July 2019 and sold last night at $1875. Over 900% in 13 months. Tax free...
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  #293  
Old 19.08.2020, 09:45
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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No as I don't believe the future cash flows justify the price or even 25% of the price. They have yet to produce 4 quarters of profit, I am only interested in profits that are received as cash rather than an accounting profit on paper.
maybe you haven't looked recently, but i think they've had 4 quarters of profit and fcf now.
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  #294  
Old 19.08.2020, 09:48
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I bought at $205 in July 2019 and sold last night at $1875. Over 900% in 13 months. Tax free...
You did very well, what was the size of your punt? A months income or a year or more? I am always interested in the confidence people had at the time of the original investment.
$5k invested in BIDU 31/3/06 & Netflix 30/5/07 bought me a flat & paid to add an additional story to be built 2 years ago, probably my 2 best investments to date. Both dropped more than 50% more than once during my holding period, more luck than anything else.
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  #295  
Old 19.08.2020, 10:11
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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You did very well, what was the size of your punt? A months income or a year or more? I am always interested in the confidence people had at the time of the original investment.
$5k invested in BIDU 31/3/06 & Netflix 30/5/07 bought me a flat & paid to add an additional story to be built 2 years ago, probably my 2 best investments to date. Both dropped more than 50% more than once during my holding period, more luck than anything else.
i was tempted at 3 points to take a punt on tesla:

1. when they turned their 2nd q profit and prominent bears turned bullish
2. when i realised the analysts completely underestimated the production and financials ahead of a quarterly earnings call; and
3. during the covid dip

but it would have been just that, a punt. it's not something i would have put more than 10k into.

that said, there's a prominent youtuber tesla bull that put $1m into tesla and it represents something like 97% of his portfolio (i think the remaining ones are tencent and amazon).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onbwW2kPsng
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  #296  
Old 19.08.2020, 10:43
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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You did very well, what was the size of your punt? A months income or a year or more? I am always interested in the confidence people had at the time of the original investment.
i think this is a key point. for 'risky' stocks you can't invest a lot into them.

for 'sure bet' stocks you could invest heavily and so get bigger gains through volume.

for the highest conviction and best risk/reward stocks, i would still limit the purchase to 1 year's savings as you never know what will happen (e.g. covid-19!) - although I'd allow gains to run to 40% of total portfolio in the short term and taking profits down to 20% in the longer term.

Last edited by Phil_MCR; 19.08.2020 at 12:16.
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  #297  
Old 19.08.2020, 11:45
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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You did very well, what was the size of your punt? A months income or a year or more? I am always interested in the confidence people had at the time of the original investment.
$5k invested in BIDU 31/3/06 & Netflix 30/5/07 bought me a flat & paid to add an additional story to be built 2 years ago, probably my 2 best investments to date. Both dropped more than 50% more than once during my holding period, more luck than anything else.
It was about 6 months‘. I bought because I was so impressed with my Model 3 that I felt the shares were grossly undervalued and I was disappointed with other funds where I was invested in.

I still think TSLA has a way to go and „battery day“ in late September will either be a massive boost or a damp squib. There‘s incredible hype on new battery development. I got out as I see a general stock bubble building and am more than happy with the yield...

(Not quiet no tax, as Vermögensteuer will apply)
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  #298  
Old 19.08.2020, 12:11
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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It was about 6 months‘. I bought because I was so impressed with my Model 3 that I felt the shares were grossly undervalued and I was disappointed with other funds where I was invested in.

I still think TSLA has a way to go and „battery day“ in late September will either be a massive boost or a damp squib. There‘s incredible hype on new battery development. I got out as I see a general stock bubble building and am more than happy with the yield...

(Not quiet no tax, as Vermögensteuer will apply)
Congratulations. I think that will look like good timing in the future. I'm still in to the tune of about £20k through various trusts and funds (that I don't want to sell) but I can't see the fundamentals for a price as high as it is.

Im generally holding but not buying much more tech stocks / tech heavy funds as my portfolio had become a pretty extreme "growth". This months investment will probably go to Fundsmith - i don't think fs has much potential to seriously crash.
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  #299  
Old 19.08.2020, 12:12
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I bought at $205 in July 2019 and sold last night at $1875. Over 900% in 13 months. Tax free...
Wooo, that's perfect timing

Considering the oncoming financial recession , no car manufacturer stock price should go up, so there may be a bubble and taking the profit is a good call.
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Old 19.08.2020, 18:33
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I bought at $205 in July 2019 and sold last night at $1875. Over 900% in 13 months. Tax free...
Amazing, great timing without getting greedy and losing half if there was a sudden catastrophe on top of the pandemic.

I’m still in with quite a lot I bought over the last 9 months around the 500-600 range. Been a bit nerve racking recently but I’ll hold out until after battery day with a cybertruck (or model Y) to show for my gains.
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