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  #361  
Old 26.08.2020, 23:42
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Today FB has reached $300 per share which translates to 300% gain since I bought it in 2015 and kept it long term. From different technical analysis, no matter how you look at it, I believe it has still lots of frugal days ahead of it.

If only FB bought GPRO and put them out of their misery for good I would want to see SNAP come up with some good ideas and to boost their shares popularity. That ABB is disappointing as usual, they never go anywhere into serious region since years. However, AMD purchased for $36 a share was quite a good bet in my opinion.

Gotta be patient in all your “street” endeavours
the worst recent 'mistake' i made was not buying AMD options 'for tax reasons'. $0.04 with a $16 strike price - a trade that would have allowed me to retire instantly. i bought AMD at $10 instead, so it wasn't all bad
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  #362  
Old 27.08.2020, 10:46
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Have you reviewed their IP portfolio?- which patents do you think are particularly important? (Says the patent attorney self importantly)

There's a big risk with putting a high value on these patents - how soon governments legalise self driving. If it's 2035+ all that ip may not be commercialisable.
it's not the patent, but the self-driving neural network software asset that was taught by about half a million cars over the last 7 years in a lot of countries all around the world. Basically Tesla cars know how people drive in CA, NY, but also in HK and Norway and Switzerland. They have all the data, all the camera footage, and all the human interactions as well to teach the machine what is correct behavior - and it is different by region and the Autopilot can blend in according to the region it is placed into. I think this is a far better entry approach into autonomous driving among humans than the "failsafe" version that all other automakers are doing, which will protect you in a controlled conservative traffic situation but are largely useless against erroneous human drivers.

If they can monetize this, the price premium in the stock is fully justified as no player is even near this scale and capability.
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  #363  
Old 27.08.2020, 11:00
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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If they can monetize this, the price premium in the stock is fully justified as no player is even near this scale and capability.
They have to sell it very cheap, as Microsoft did or they will not gain market share. Not sure 'fully justified' as a lot can go wrong, the cost of entry is way lower than TESLA's makes cap.
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  #364  
Old 27.08.2020, 11:04
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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They have to sell it very cheap, as Microsoft did or they will not gain market share. Not sure 'fully justified' as a lot can go wrong, the cost of entry is way lower than TESLA's makes cap.
what did microsoft do? (and why does the forum engine auto-link MSFT?)
why do you think the cost of entry is low for autonomous driving?
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  #365  
Old 27.08.2020, 11:09
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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what did microsoft do? (and why does the forum engine auto-link MSFT?)
why do you think the cost of entry is low for autonomous driving?
Microsoft was the 3rd outsider, they sold MS DOS for $99 less than 10% of what IBM charged for the 'official' operating system. MSFT is the ticker symbol

I did not say the cost of entry was low, but hugely lower than $400 billion you par paying when buying a share in TSLA. If something is going to be hugely profitable competition rises.
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  #366  
Old 27.08.2020, 11:19
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Microsoft was the 3rd outsider, they sold MS DOS for $99 less than 10% of what IBM charged for the 'official' operating system. MSFT is the ticker symbol

I did not say the cost of entry was low, but hugely lower than $400 billion you par paying when buying a share in TSLA. If something is going to be hugely profitable competition rises.
I still don't get your comment about MSFT.

Bar of entry in autonomous EV is super high. Think all the superchargers alone. No car manufacturer can do it in this scale in the world. The EV charging market is a huge mess in most countries as it's just forming. Not if you have a TSLA though.
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  #367  
Old 27.08.2020, 11:20
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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the worst recent 'mistake' i made was not buying AMD options 'for tax reasons'. $0.04 with a $16 strike price - a trade that would have allowed me to retire instantly. i bought AMD at $10 instead, so it wasn't all bad
My only rant was that I didn’t buy Domino’s Pizza shares in 2015 for a couple of bucks each, and I was about to do it but then decided that technology MCHP, ADI, TXN, XLNX investments are better options overall. They have proven to be alright in the long run, but nothing beats a slice of cheesy pizza after a long day of speculations on blue chip companies
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  #368  
Old 27.08.2020, 11:25
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I still don't get your comment about MSFT.

Bar of entry in autonomous EV is super high. Think all the superchargers alone. No car manufacturer can do it in this scale in the world. The EV charging market is a huge mess in most countries as it's just forming. Not if you have a TSLA though.
MSFT became dominant by giving their product away almost for free.

TSLA have spent significantly under 10 billion in total for all R&D costs to date, why would it cost someone else much more? Paying 400 billion for the IP does not seem a good deal.
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  #369  
Old 27.08.2020, 12:17
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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MSFT became dominant by giving their product away almost for free.
They've foregone a potential revenue stream in favor of having a mass user base. Seems to have worked as they clearly have built a large monopoly since. Same as what Tesla have been doing with the supercharger network and free charging for the last 5 years.

It's different with autonomous driving, though. They already have their use base, they don't need to discount anything to come up with a pure tech solution that they can re-sell to other car makers. Manufacturing things don't scale very well, selling software licenses does though.

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TSLA have spent significantly under 10 billion in total for all R&D costs to date, why would it cost someone else much more? Paying 400 billion for the IP does not seem a good deal.
where does this 10b come from? I mean to have 500k cars on the street doing their miles every day just so that you have data you need for your innovation - you need to manufacture and sell 500k cars first. that's no easy feat and it was certainly not just 10b if Capex so far.
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  #370  
Old 27.08.2020, 12:34
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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where does this 10b come from? I mean to have 500k cars on the street doing their miles every day just so that you have data you need for your innovation - you need to manufacture and sell 500k cars first. that's no easy feat and it was certainly not just 10b if Capex so far.
or fit a camera and computer to an existing car.

imo, the incumbant car makers should fit cameras and computers to their cars to start collecting this kind of data
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  #371  
Old 27.08.2020, 14:37
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

TSLA closed up again last night at $2157 and the hype goes on.

I got out as I can see a bubble brewing and am more then happy with over 900% return! September 15 is the very much over-hyped Battery Day at Tesla. If the speculative accounts are true and Tesla have cracked the battery manufacturing costs and will present a very significant drop in price and increase in efficiency, a million mile battery (how long they will last) - then their shares will double...

...if they disappoint, their shares will plummet.
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  #372  
Old 27.08.2020, 14:41
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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or fit a camera and computer to an existing car.

imo, the incumbant car makers should fit cameras and computers to their cars to start collecting this kind of data
They should, right?

Let's see what you need, though: it's not just fitting a camera (actually at least 6 of them), but also to wire everything to a central unit, read all the CANBUS info in order to get data on what the driver is doing (accel, decel, steering) and in what situation does he do that - vs. what their own intelligence would've done. Then ship that all back to HQ over the air, so you need a CPU, some RAM, an an always-on SIM card with some low data plan. And a server farm and backend to process all that data.
Tesla already has all that in every single vehicle, plus also the backend.
https://medium.com/@Tesloop/teslas-n...n-a8dbbf1c4f92

The CPU is a big thing in the Tesla Engineering ecosystem where the traditional car makers are seriously lacking, mostly as they have multiple disconnected control systems based on their swarm of supply chain partners.

Having almost full control about the car (like apple has full control about the iPhone and its ecosystem) is a paradigm shift in manufacturing vehicles that the traditional brands just simply can not do. Read up on the ID.3 problems for the last 2 years where the VW CEO said they need to become a software company to be competitive in the future, so they started it just now, with the aim of taking back 60% (!) control of their own car in 5 (!) years.
https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news...-platform.html

If they succeed, in 5 years they are gonna be 15 years late. And at that stage it's still no data available to start anything as Tesla has been doing for long. This is an eternity in IT and especially neural networks. That's the moat TSLA has over the whole industry and it's huge.

(and by explaining it so nice, one wonders why the hell I sold me shares some yrs ago??)
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  #373  
Old 27.08.2020, 14:48
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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...if they disappoint, their shares will plummet.
I'm expecting a huge sell off in TSLA (read: BTC) either after battery day or around November-ish.

We will be watching to pick up the slack.
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  #374  
Old 27.08.2020, 15:58
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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It's different with autonomous driving, though. They already have their use base, they don't need to discount anything to come up with a pure tech solution that they can re-sell to other car makers. Manufacturing things don't scale very well, selling software licenses does though.
Autonomous cars are essentially software though. The hardware bits such as cameras and sensors are mostly low-value commodities. So essentially as a system designer you chose whether you want to be in a "make once and sell few", or "make once and sell many" scenario. Esentially the differentiator is the price.
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  #375  
Old 27.08.2020, 16:15
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Autonomous cars are essentially software though. The hardware bits such as cameras and sensors are mostly low-value commodities. So essentially as a system designer you chose whether you want to be in a "make once and sell few", or "make once and sell many" scenario. Esentially the differentiator is the price.
the hardware itself is relatively cheap (approx 1000 USD on mass purchase price), the development of the hardware especially the CPU and their own ASIC is another scale, though, probably north of 100m USD.

Still not something that carmakers couldn't afford, though.
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  #376  
Old 27.08.2020, 16:38
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

it would probably make sense for tsla to sell components to the car industry (batteries, drive train, control, autonomous). they'd be like the wintel of the car world.
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Old 27.08.2020, 16:38
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I still don't get your comment about MSFT.

Bar of entry in autonomous EV is super high. Think all the superchargers alone. No car manufacturer can do it in this scale in the world. The EV charging market is a huge mess in most countries as it's just forming. Not if you have a TSLA though.
Existing car manufactures are not investing in Tesla & they will not be their competition going forward.
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the hardware itself is relatively cheap (approx 1000 USD on mass purchase price), the development of the hardware especially the CPU and their own ASIC is another scale, though, probably north of 100m USD.

Still not something that carmakers couldn't afford, though.
Thats why capital markets exist to bring capital to entrepreneurs. 100m is peanuts Tesla's market cap increased 100 times that today.
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  #378  
Old 27.08.2020, 17:49
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Technology is always cool but these numbers came out this morning for CH: -8.2% PIB growth on Q2-2020, and full recovery until 2022. https://www.20min.ch/story/bip-schru...l-710848127720

Expect more or less the same thing in many countries. Sweden can be marginally better, but they're not going to buy all the stuff to compensate for the rest of the missing consumption around the world. Cashflow is going to be relevant for valuations soon.
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  #379  
Old 27.08.2020, 17:54
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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where does this 10b come from? I mean to have 500k cars on the street doing their miles every day just so that you have data you need for your innovation - you need to manufacture and sell 500k cars first. that's no easy feat and it was certainly not just 10b if Capex so far.
10b comes from their accounts since inception R&D
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  #380  
Old 27.08.2020, 18:16
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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10b comes from their accounts since inception R&D
The amount spent on R&D itself is not enough if you can't gather data because your cars are not enabled for it.
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