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  #21  
Old 13.03.2020, 11:20
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Another point, the US still has to see an increase in the number of ill people. Today around 1000, wait for the 10K as Italy, around the last week of March.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES7biiVX...jpg&name=small
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  #22  
Old 13.03.2020, 13:17
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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$10,000 invested in the SAP 500 for 15 years 31/12/04 to 31/12/19

Fully invested throughout $36418
Miss the best 10 days $18358
Miss the best 20 days $11908
Miss the best 30 days $8150
Miss the best 40 days $5857

As a long term investor it pays to stay invested & as nobody has the skill to time the market.
Yeap, not even checking my portfolio. It was 50K a few weeks ago, must be under 40K right now. I'm not selling a single stock (I have Disney, Amazon, Paypal, Facebook, Accenture, Allianz, Amazon, Bayer, Shopify, ING, and some others). Not one hasn't sufferent anywhere between -5% and -25% since this started. If anything I'll borrow some money when I think it's starts to bounce back up.
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  #23  
Old 13.03.2020, 13:55
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Not one hasn't sufferent anywhere between -5% and -25% since this started.
I wish I could say this about Deutsche Bank.
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  #24  
Old 13.03.2020, 14:05
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

i normally pay a small monthly amount into my Viac 3A account. just decided to pay the balance of the year in as it will then go into stocks at the beginning of the month. (which will still be hopefully still a low price). since amount is small, it's not a big deal if it goes down further.
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  #25  
Old 13.03.2020, 14:05
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I wish I could say this about Deutsche Bank.
better than cruise line stocks just before the outbreak...
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  #26  
Old 13.03.2020, 14:27
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Hi,



What do you all think about the market situation given the oil crisis / coronavirus pandemy? Good time to invest in stock market or better to wait for further drops?



I'm a bit surprised there are no posts on this topic at the forum - What are you thinking about investment opportunities?



Link to guardian article quoting biggest stock market fall since 2008 crisis:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...nancial-crisis


Curious to hear your thoughts!
The market is still too expensive and possibly has to go down a lot more. The economy is tanking, a lot of people are going to lose their job. Even if the virus goes away in 3-4 months, the economy won't recover so quickly.

I sold last year and won't get in any time soon. Ok, I lost the last part of the move, but that's life. Now I would like to see value in stocks and I am waiting for at least 50% correction from the top.
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  #27  
Old 13.03.2020, 15:32
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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The market is still too expensive and possibly has to go down a lot more. The economy is tanking, a lot of people are going to lose their job. Even if the virus goes away in 3-4 months, the economy won't recover so quickly.

I sold last year and won't get in any time soon. Ok, I lost the last part of the move, but that's life. Now I would like to see value in stocks and I am waiting for at least 50% correction from the top.
You have a view but it is difficult to time it.
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  #28  
Old 13.03.2020, 16:57
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Quick question: I see IB will increase margin requirements, but doesn't seem to say when this will take place. Anyone know?
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  #29  
Old 13.03.2020, 17:47
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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You have a view but it is difficult to time it.
I would rather miss the up move than to buy too early. There is no board to pressure me... in the worst case scenario I will end up with additional cash.

Btw the big guys haven't sold yet. there are people still hoping for central banks to save the situation. what we currently see is the first wave.
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  #30  
Old 13.03.2020, 17:49
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Quick question: I see IB will increase margin requirements, but doesn't seem to say when this will take place. Anyone know?
They probably wait to see how the volatility develops and how their clients are doing. If they increase margins, they'll have less trade volume. Not the best option for them
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  #31  
Old 13.03.2020, 18:35
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I would rather miss the up move than to buy too early. There is no board to pressure me... in the worst case scenario I will end up with additional cash.

Btw the big guys haven't sold yet. there are people still hoping for central banks to save the situation. what we currently see is the first wave.
Sounds like when Fundsmith started, everybody said it was a bad time to invest, 2 years later the fund was up 50% people said it's gone up a lot, would they have been happier to invest id it had fallen 50%?
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  #32  
Old 13.03.2020, 20:14
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I have 100% of liquidity (sold everything a couple of months ago) and I would start gradually investing , the more it drops, the more I would invest (preferably in mutual funds such as LU0070212591 or similar). The problem is that I don't have the tools to invest in CH....as I am still trying to understand how things work here .
Just open an account with your bank. Not sure for all but I am with Post Finance and you can add trading account within your bank account online, few clicks that's it.
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  #33  
Old 13.03.2020, 20:16
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I would rather miss the up move than to buy too early. There is no board to pressure me... in the worst case scenario I will end up with additional cash.

Btw the big guys haven't sold yet. there are people still hoping for central banks to save the situation. what we currently see is the first wave.
Agree. To me best asset class is cash or gold at the moment.
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  #34  
Old 13.03.2020, 20:58
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Sounds like when Fundsmith started, everybody said it was a bad time to invest, 2 years later the fund was up 50% people said it's gone up a lot, would they have been happier to invest id it had fallen 50%?
Are you buying anything yet FMF? If yes, what?
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  #35  
Old 13.03.2020, 21:09
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I would rather miss the up move than to buy too early. There is no board to pressure me... in the worst case scenario I will end up with additional cash.

Btw the big guys haven't sold yet. there are people still hoping for central banks to save the situation. what we currently see is the first wave.
The main US indices are up over 9% today, markets move up the most when you least expect it thats something like the 2nd best day in 70 years for the S&P 500
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Are you buying anything yet FMF? If yes, what?
If I had spare cash I would have put a big order in for Fundsmith & Smithson, I have a 50k tax bill to pay on Friday.
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  #36  
Old 13.03.2020, 22:03
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Holy bouncing dead cats, Batman - I'm 5% up on the day! (Still 20% down since last month).
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  #37  
Old 13.03.2020, 22:12
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Quick question: I see IB will increase margin requirements, but doesn't seem to say when this will take place. Anyone know?
Assume they have done it already otherwise you are risking to force close your positions.

My suggestion: never trade on a margin.
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  #38  
Old 13.03.2020, 22:13
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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$10,000 invested in the SAP 500 for 15 years 31/12/04 to 31/12/19

Fully invested throughout $36418
Miss the best 10 days $18358
Miss the best 20 days $11908
Miss the best 30 days $8150
Miss the best 40 days $5857

As a long term investor it pays to stay invested & as nobody has the skill to time the market.
If you assume to miss x best days you must also assume to miss x worst days. Drops usually happen much faster, so that silly game would probably be a net positive if managed to stay out both at the best and the worst times.
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  #39  
Old 13.03.2020, 22:13
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Holy bouncing dead cats, Batman - I'm 5% up on the day! (Still 20% down since last month).

Invest in undertakers, florists & delivery services.
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  #40  
Old 13.03.2020, 22:17
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I would rather miss the up move than to buy too early. There is no board to pressure me... in the worst case scenario I will end up with additional cash.

Btw the big guys haven't sold yet. there are people still hoping for central banks to save the situation. what we currently see is the first wave.
The big guys are adding positions and they will add more if the market corrects more.

It is impossible to time the bottom. Imo the best approach is, after you decide how much you can afford to invest, to invest gradually.
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