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  #381  
Old 27.08.2020, 18:41
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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The amount spent on R&D itself is not enough if you can't gather data because your cars are not enabled for it.
You are missing the point.

If I buy 1 share for $2250, essentially I am paying $420 Billion for the company. I believe that $420 Billion could be invested better going forward. 20-40 Billion of investment, bearing in mind TESLA have only invested 10 Billion to date in R&D could blow them out of the water. Tesla at todays price has to be a bad deal, the no's just don't add up. If it's really was worth the money SEVERAL competitor will come along & mean reversion will occur, it always does.
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  #382  
Old 27.08.2020, 21:17
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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You are missing the point.

If I buy 1 share for $2250, essentially I am paying $420 Billion for the company. I believe that $420 Billion could be invested better going forward. 20-40 Billion of investment, bearing in mind TESLA have only invested 10 Billion to date in R&D could blow them out of the water. Tesla at todays price has to be a bad deal, the no's just don't add up. If it's really was worth the money SEVERAL competitor will come along & mean reversion will occur, it always does.
and it probably will, with time. Now let them kids play their game
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  #383  
Old 27.08.2020, 21:35
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Technology is always cool but these numbers came out this morning for CH: -8.2% PIB growth on Q2-2020, and full recovery until 2022. https://www.20min.ch/story/bip-schru...l-710848127720

Expect more or less the same thing in many countries. Sweden can be marginally better, but they're not going to buy all the stuff to compensate for the rest of the missing consumption around the world. Cashflow is going to be relevant for valuations soon.
Sounds bad until you see that the UK recorded a growth of -20.2% that quarter. -12.1% in the EU.

CH's figure is really quite good in the situation.
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  #384  
Old 27.08.2020, 21:37
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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My only rant was that I didn’t buy Domino’s Pizza shares in 2015 for a couple of bucks each, and I was about to do it but then decided that technology MCHP, ADI, TXN, XLNX investments are better options overall. They have proven to be alright in the long run, but nothing beats a slice of cheesy pizza after a long day of speculations on blue chip companies
It sounds like you want Domino's Pizza more than Domino's Pizza shares
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  #385  
Old 27.08.2020, 22:32
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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It sounds like you want Domino's Pizza more than Domino's Pizza shares
Never tasted it. Therefore cannot tell why there is so much hype surrounding their shares. They became another Tesla made of cheap dough and cheese. You cannot drive it but you can eat it.

Last edited by jacek; 27.08.2020 at 23:09.
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  #386  
Old 05.09.2020, 21:25
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Never tasted it. Therefore cannot tell why there is so much hype surrounding their shares. They became another Tesla made of cheap dough and cheese. You cannot drive it but you can eat it.
I remember Terry selling it a few years ago because he thought it didn't have much more scope for growth. A rare mistake.
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  #387  
Old 05.09.2020, 21:31
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I remember Terry selling it a few years ago because he thought it didn't have much more scope for growth. A rare mistake.
It was overvalued & has invested the money well since. I think it quadrupled & he possibly sold it twice!
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  #388  
Old 07.09.2020, 18:56
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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It was overvalued & has invested the money well since. I think it quadrupled & he possibly sold it twice!
Replacement was IIRC Idex which did he even better than Dominos - so he did well, but it wasn't the one that should have been sold. At least not at that time.
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  #389  
Old 07.09.2020, 19:07
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Replacement was IIRC Idex which did he even better than Dominos - so he did well, but it wasn't the one that should have been sold. At least not at that time.
With 20/20 hindsight, however Dominos was a large position IIRC.
What Terry is repeatable, he looks at the no's & if the management is doing anything he considers foolish, then decides which positions to increase & what is out of kilter. He can't predict what the price will be tomorrow, next week or next year.
He just wants to own the best companies, has been right more often than not over the last 30 years. When he dies it will be possible to continue the strategy. The kids at Smithson have shown this & Julian Robins knows the rules.
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  #390  
Old 08.09.2020, 18:39
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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TSLA closed up again last night at $2157 and the hype goes on.

I got out as I can see a bubble brewing and am more then happy with over 900% return! September 15 is the very much over-hyped Battery Day at Tesla. If the speculative accounts are true and Tesla have cracked the battery manufacturing costs and will present a very significant drop in price and increase in efficiency, a million mile battery (how long they will last) - then their shares will double...

...if they disappoint, their shares will plummet.
Hey AbFab, what timing!!! You're missing this party



Hope no one used the credit card to play the game because there's another $150 down only to reach end of June prices.

Last edited by Axa; 08.09.2020 at 19:02.
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  #391  
Old 08.09.2020, 21:48
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Hey AbFab, what timing!!! You're missing this party



Hope no one used the credit card to play the game because there's another $150 down only to reach end of June prices.
I kept a significant SMT holding which offloaded a decent portion of TSLA at the perfect point, although still hold a lot. Added about 10k chf on Friday at about 840 or 850.

Not been brave enough to hold Tesla direct. Might put this months pay into it if it goes low enough.
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  #392  
Old 08.09.2020, 22:37
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

It’s not like markets are terribly down last two sessions, it just a much needed correction to keep “the show must go on” further. Otherwise, it would have been unrealistically too much bull market. It’s a good time to buy Tesla’s and similar.
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  #393  
Old 16.09.2020, 00:35
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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there's actually a very annoying and dislikable analyst that has an $86 price target on tesla (by end of 2021). while it does seem unlikely to go from 2k to 86 given the huge amount of millenial money involved, i don't think it is out of the question. if for example zev credits dry up quickly, successive quarterly losses are posted, i can see investors running for the hills, particularly those late-comers. with lack of fundamental support for these lofty share prices it could quickly tumble.

to be fair, TSLA at least has some kind of possible investment case if you squint at it and everything works in their favour, but even more extreme are 'companies' such as Nikola Corporation (NKLA) which now has a market cap of 15bn. as far as i can tell, the company is just a website, a few fancy presentations and a CEO i wouldn't trust if my life depended on it. i expect we'll see some lawsuits in a few years when everybody loses their shirts.

EDIT to add: just for laughs see the table here: NKLA borrow rates are 600% https://www.shortsight.com/nkla-tsla...rent%20reasons.
It's amazing that NKLA is still at $30 now that short seller Hindenburg Research released their report and DOJ and SEC are now looking to investigate NKLA for fraud.
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  #394  
Old 16.09.2020, 00:49
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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It's amazing that NKLA is still at $30 now that short seller Hindenburg Research released their report and DOJ and SEC are now looking to investigate NKLA for fraud.
And they were so much recommended by Swissquote magazine in terms of green hydrogen companies. I suspect that I should do quite opposite to what the common markets analysts suggest to become successful in my investments
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  #395  
Old 16.09.2020, 01:36
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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And they were so much recommended by Swissquote magazine in terms of green hydrogen companies. I suspect that I should do quite opposite to what the common markets analysts suggest to become successful in my investments
NKLA never had an actual product, only fools would see otherwise. No product, no factories, no charging infrastructure. Their current Semi is a 1:1 carbon copy of the design of the Tesla Semi. Heck even the name is a knock-off. Funny enough, GM didn't even take a hit, having financed 10% of this shit-show.

Hydrogen drive is vaporware (pun intended). Honda failed (FCX), Toyota failed (Mirai), everyone else is also gonna fail, most probably.
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  #396  
Old 16.09.2020, 02:45
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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NKLA never had an actual product, only fools would see otherwise. No product, no factories, no charging infrastructure. Their current Semi is a 1:1 carbon copy of the design of the Tesla Semi. Heck even the name is a knock-off. Funny enough, GM didn't even take a hit, having financed 10% of this shit-show.
it's really staggering that so many people are buying this and recommending this when it is so obvious that it is a fraud!
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  #397  
Old 16.09.2020, 12:37
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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it's really staggering that so many people are buying this and recommending this when it is so obvious that it is a fraud!
Tempted to short it?
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  #398  
Old 18.09.2020, 12:41
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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On Monday, GM CEO Mary Barra said the company had a “very capable” team vet Nikola prior to the partnership being struck.

On Wednesday, JPMorgan reiterated an Overweight rating on Nikola and said the company’s CFO Kim Brady told them that Nikola is experiencing “no loss of momentum with existing partners, prospective customers, suppliers and employees.”
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Old 18.09.2020, 12:42
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Tempted to short it?
If there was ever a stock I would short, this would be it, but it is difficult/expensive to do (I posted borrow rates in a previous post). However, Hertz shows that you can't even safely short a bankrupt company so shorting stocks is not something I do.

Last edited by Phil_MCR; 18.09.2020 at 14:07.
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Old 05.10.2020, 21:08
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Related with a mild hijacking But you seem like a knowledgeable bunch so I’ll take the jump.

I have done quite a bit of research and have talked also to my bank. I have a pretty good idea on what to invest based on my objectives. Question that I am struggling with is where to execute. Options include:

— my bank (UBS) - stable, will honour their contract except in extreme scenarios, probably backed by Swiss government in the extreme case, high fees.

— Swiss Quote Platform - all digital and user friendly, Swiss company, a bit lower fees but don’t know them enough to get comfort if they will deliver what they promise. In short, will i get my money back even if no returns are delivered.

— interactive brokers - read some good stuff about them here but same downside to Swiss Quote plus they are non-Swiss company.

— others?

Any advice or insights to the above or any other platform?
Thanks
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