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  #81  
Old 25.03.2020, 10:44
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Yeah they'll tweet the virus away LOL
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  #82  
Old 25.03.2020, 11:00
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Or bomb somebody....
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  #83  
Old 25.03.2020, 11:07
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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The current plan of the Trump administration seems to be to wait out a token two or three weeks in a more or less complete shutdown while ramping up testing and getting a good supply of antivirals in place and then "letting people out again" so that the economy can restart again.

I hope they do go for it.
Someone has to be first.
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  #84  
Old 25.03.2020, 11:25
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Trump is both brave and dumb/ignorant enough to try.


He was and is always a bit of a gambler.


The problem is that the stakes are basically the lives of potentially millions of people he's playing with.
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  #85  
Old 25.03.2020, 11:43
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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buy XYZ and hold maybe for few years.
Regardless of the markets down or not:
Don't invest any serious amounts of money (you are not willing to risk losing chunks of) into stocks if you are not holding it there longer term (anything less than 5 years is short).
Unless you believe yourself to be an "experienced" "day trader", that is.
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  #86  
Old 25.03.2020, 11:49
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Regardless of the markets down or not:
Don't invest any serious amounts of money (you are not willing to risk losing chunks of) into stocks if you are not holding it there longer term (anything less than 5 years is short).
Unless you believe yourself to be an "experienced" "day trader", that is.
Buy stock and hold it for years, I doubt that you will find anything when you retire. Some of the companies may go bankrupt by that time.
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  #87  
Old 25.03.2020, 17:02
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Buy stock and hold it for years, I doubt that you will find anything when you retire. Some of the companies may go bankrupt by that time.
wow
Ever heard of diversification or ETFs?

My "stocks" up there was an asset class (as oposed to bonds/RE/etc.), there are different ways/instruments to get exposure to those.
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  #88  
Old 25.03.2020, 19:35
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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wow
Ever heard of diversification or ETFs?

My "stocks" up there was an asset class (as oposed to bonds/RE/etc.), there are different ways/instruments to get exposure to those.
I am a risk manager. For sure you have to diversify, this is investing 101. ETF, I will only buy in accounts where they don't allow stock buying (some retirement accounts offer only funds, at least in the UK). You can do much better buying stocks rather ETFs. Actually with bonds you can make more money than stocks but you need a big portfolio to buy them.
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  #89  
Old 25.03.2020, 20:31
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Yeap, the market thinks so. It all depends if Trump will be able to open the economy again for business soon. Markets think he can do it.
beyond market sentiment, maybe the cases explode beyond control in some country, or China implodes later this year.

Would that not cause a deeper dip later?
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  #90  
Old 25.03.2020, 20:36
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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beyond market sentiment, maybe the cases explode beyond control in some country, or China implodes later this year.

Would that not cause a deeper dip later?
If they close the economy as a result, yes. Hopefully, they will find a vaccine by the end of the year.
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  #91  
Old 26.03.2020, 09:43
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I am a risk manager. For sure you have to diversify, this is investing 101. ETF, I will only buy in accounts where they don't allow stock buying (some retirement accounts offer only funds, at least in the UK). You can do much better buying stocks rather ETFs. Actually with bonds you can make more money than stocks but you need a big portfolio to buy them.
I'm going off topic, but...
You are super contradictory, given that you are a risk manager:
A) Picking individual stocks is much more risky than using ETFs.
By tons of research and statistics you are wrong in 95% of cases*, claiming that in the long term you can win by picking stocks vs. buying a broad market ETF.
B) Bonds are maybe less risky than stocks/ETFs, but have far lower (if not negative soon) expected returns than stocks. Thus bonds will definitely not make you more money over the long term. (and that is a risk-adjusted view)

*cases being active fund managers whose profession is exactly that, to beat the market - and still they fail; let alone a "layman retail investor" with super-high confidence...
So don't push people into what is not true and what they are not likely at all to be successful in.

You could get lucky with a couple of picks, but you need a 20-30+ years track record of beating the index to prove me that you can beat an ETF by stock picking or bond buying.
And that "you" is a figurative individual; stats are clear - large majority can't and is better off not even trying.

Last edited by dbucar; 26.03.2020 at 09:56.
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  #92  
Old 26.03.2020, 10:09
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

We should forget the stock market for now. Don’t sell anything, perhaps inclined to buy but be patient and most likely the moment is not yet. It’s a good time to trade or exchange currencies. The CHF is usually stable and shown extraordinary resilience against other currencies last week. Emerging markets currencies dropped. I, for instance, managed to buy significantly more ZAR for my home loan repayment. Use those times by being financially flexible and watch carefully trends of what grows and what falls.

If you have an urge to invest in something, then invest in your health right now. You could also invest in your online education.
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  #93  
Old 26.03.2020, 11:12
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Ιnteractive Brokers account is very good and low cost platform. Just convert your CHF to USD when you deposit the money with Interactive Brokers and see if you can buy some value stock or ETFs.
Indeed, for an experienced investor IB is probably among the top contenders. However for saiya-jin Postfinance is probaby the far better choice due to simplicity, and the cost savings are probably far too small to change that. And given that saiya already has a PF account, opening a "Wertschriftendepot" should be pretty simple, quick and painless.

saiya, perhaps PM EF user chuff for what his experience was/is, he's also buy-to-hold and was facing the same question a while ago. He opted for PF.
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  #94  
Old 26.03.2020, 11:18
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I guess dip time is over?
How?

You still get 25% discount on the SP500, possibly more on individual stocks, compared to prices earlier this year.

It's still spring sale time!
Nobody knows if there will be a summer or autumn sale, too.
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Old 26.03.2020, 11:30
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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How?

You still get 25% discount on the SP500, possibly more on individual stocks, compared to prices earlier this year.

It's still spring sale time!
Nobody knows if there will be a summer or autumn sale, too.
Roughly where we were on 21 December 2018, some 16 months ago & yet it's perceived to be a huge deal by the media. I don't get it as equity investments should be bought to be held for many years.
Imagine if house prices were quoted second by second day in & day out with owners being required to post more margin every day when prices fell.
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  #96  
Old 26.03.2020, 12:05
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Yes because there's another 30% drop coming when the yankees start dropping like flies in the US and they go into full panic mode.

Ignoring the problem doesn't make it go away mr Trump.
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Old 26.03.2020, 19:22
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I'm going off topic, but...
You are super contradictory, given that you are a risk manager:
A) Picking individual stocks is much more risky than using ETFs.
By tons of research and statistics you are wrong in 95% of cases*, claiming that in the long term you can win by picking stocks vs. buying a broad market ETF.
B) Bonds are maybe less risky than stocks/ETFs, but have far lower (if not negative soon) expected returns than stocks. Thus bonds will definitely not make you more money over the long term. (and that is a risk-adjusted view)

*cases being active fund managers whose profession is exactly that, to beat the market - and still they fail; let alone a "layman retail investor" with super-high confidence...
So don't push people into what is not true and what they are not likely at all to be successful in.

You could get lucky with a couple of picks, but you need a 20-30+ years track record of beating the index to prove me that you can beat an ETF by stock picking or bond buying.
And that "you" is a figurative individual; stats are clear - large majority can't and is better off not even trying.
Sorry but no. ETF is just a product. You can see any ETFs top holdings in the prospectus. You can easily buy the top holdings and don't pay the fees to ETF provider. ETF is good if you want access to markets far away and you can't trade in the exchanges there.

There are many opportunities in the markets if you want to take some risk to make some returns. With an ETF you just buy an index or a sector. It depends if you want to spend time or not.

In any case good luck with whatever you select.
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  #98  
Old 26.03.2020, 19:26
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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How?

You still get 25% discount on the SP500, possibly more on individual stocks, compared to prices earlier this year.

It's still spring sale time!
Nobody knows if there will be a summer or autumn sale, too.
3rd day up now in a row. Good time to buy was last Wednesday. You can still buy a bit now but make sure to set aside cash if there is a new drop coming.
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  #99  
Old 26.03.2020, 19:28
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Yes because there's another 30% drop coming when the yankees start dropping like flies in the US and they go into full panic mode.

Ignoring the problem doesn't make it go away mr Trump.
Maybe but with Fed's unlimited stimulus it is a bit difficult now. We will see. I won't be surprised if it goes either way!
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  #100  
Old 26.03.2020, 19:30
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Sold my stocks when COV was announced in China and made a tidy little profit before things went south. I'm now waiting for another dip again when COV reaches its peak then I will buy some more that I have my eye on.
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