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  #101  
Old 26.03.2020, 19:41
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Sold my stocks when COV was announced in China and made a tidy little profit before things went south. I'm now waiting for another dip again when COV reaches its peak then I will buy some more that I have my eye on.
For now it seems you have missed the big move but who knows. Maybe a bigger one is coming.
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  #102  
Old 26.03.2020, 20:30
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Sold my stocks when COV was announced in China and made a tidy little profit before things went south. I'm now waiting for another dip again when COV reaches its peak then I will buy some more that I have my eye on.
seem like you are good at this [timing]. mind letting us know when (and what) you buy the dip ?
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  #103  
Old 26.03.2020, 21:02
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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For now it seems you have missed the big move but who knows. Maybe a bigger one is coming.
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seem like you are good at this [timing]. mind letting us know when (and what) you buy the dip ?
Hah I am far from a expert, probably not even barely competent, but I have seen patterns in the last couple of years and learned to trust some instincts. I think it will drop again, maybe not as low as last week but close enough when the pandemics it their worst and this surge of optimism takes a hit and sadly more bodies start piling up in the EU and especially USA. It hasn't peaked yet.

But yeah, I could of course be wrong about the upcoming dip so lets see.
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  #104  
Old 27.03.2020, 06:55
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

I honestly dont understand this market... everything is in flames but the stock market for the last 3 days was up... and GROWING...

Why?

My ONLY theory is that people with low income will now get the 1200 usd emergency salaries, which are more than what they used to earn, meaning, they will be able to spend MORE... BUT, this will - off course - come with the down side that US will have to manage how to deal with this gigantic new debt in the future...

Also, the question that remains on the table is... For how long will this last? Will that be enough?
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  #105  
Old 27.03.2020, 08:02
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

The FED is printing money and buying like there's no tomorrow, this isn't real.

Another leg down is coming and it will be much fiercer than the first one and much longer.
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  #106  
Old 27.03.2020, 08:13
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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The FED is printing money and buying like there's no tomorrow, this isn't real.

Another leg down is coming and it will be much fiercer than the first one and much longer.
Not just the FED, EVERYONE. They somehow got away with it after 2008, I can't see the same happening this time around. Unless you're day trading, buying now in my opinion is still premature.
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  #107  
Old 27.03.2020, 08:56
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

It's interesting to read all 'predictions' made in this thread. Ultimately, however, nobody knows where the S&P 500 will be in the next week, month, or year. If there was consensus that markets will be going down, they'll be down already. If there was consensus that markets will be going up, they'll be up already.

IMHO there are way too many unknowns for anyone to actually benefit from timing this market. Both on the upside (surprise-treatment, early vaccine, hot and early summer) and on the downside (US riots, 2nd/3rd wave, more protectionism).

Markets will either go up or down, so at any point there's a 50% chance each pundit will get it right. Those who are lucky enough to be right will come back boasting. And help build some FOMO for the rest. But how many times in a row can they get lucky?

I'll just stay the course and stick to my pre-defined investment strategy.
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  #108  
Old 27.03.2020, 09:22
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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It's interesting to read all 'predictions' made in this thread. Ultimately, however, nobody knows where the S&P 500 will be in the next week, month, or year. If there was consensus that markets will be going down, they'll be down already. If there was consensus that markets will be going up, they'll be up already.

IMHO there are way too many unknowns for anyone to actually benefit from timing this market. Both on the upside (surprise-treatment, early vaccine, hot and early summer) and on the downside (US riots, 2nd/3rd wave, more protectionism).

Markets will either go up or down, so at any point there's a 50% chance each pundit will get it right. Those who are lucky enough to be right will come back boasting. And help build some FOMO for the rest. But how many times in a row can they get lucky?

I'll just stay the course and stick to my pre-defined investment strategy.
I think you are slightly simplifying and generalizing things for your own benefit there, which is fine, but it's not just a 50% chance toss of the coin in every instance and if you look at the context of the situation, despite the unknowns and unpredictability, it's possible to make some reasonable guesses as to whether there will potentially be a dip or an upside. It's still a guess with no guarantees, but at least it's based on some logic of what is happening in the world around us.

As for my own investing strategy, the tech market keeps going up and will keep going up long-term as the world becomes ever-more more tech reliant. Examples:
  • Amazon and other large e-commerce stores powerful to fight them off will eventually dominate the market and crush most smaller businesses. They will grow a lot in the next decades and also as they expand into other market areas they either aren't in yet or are only now just dipping a toe in the water.
  • Google et al will continue to dominate the landscape and will turn into the mega-corporations of the future.
  • Tesla, though it's having a rocky time now, will I believe continue to be a true innovator and be a key player in the future of electric transport and renewable energy. They also are linked with SpaceX, another Musk outfit which will be one of the few space-operational outfits in the next couple of decades. I fact, most things Musk-related will imo be key players in our future.

There are many other companies I could name that I believe, without dramatizing, have significant parts to play in the future landscape of mankind. Though I know it's hard to see when you are living in the present and have it in your heads that things are already getting really advanced, well, they really kind of aren't.

We are still in a time in history where the old is colliding with the new and many emerging technologies (nanotechnology, 3D printing, biotech, cybernetics, power, space travel and mining etc etc) are still in their infancy (or have yet to breakout of concept or development stages, which they will) and where corporations are still expanding and finding out where their limits lie. We haven't yet got a real idea of what these companies will turn into, but I will bet my right bum cheek that they will be the ones influencing how we live our lives a century from now and beyond.

Tech companies are the only thing I will put my money on, not only because it is an area that I follow very closely, but because I think they are the future. I always try not only to look at what is on the near horizon, but also some years ahead to where things are developing and heading. When I am old, my goal is to have a lot of money generated from investments in megacorporation stocks made while they were still relatively young like now. Money that will go to helping to establish and secure future generations of my family, whether my own children or my extended family as a whole.

Lets see if it works out.

Last edited by Chuff; 27.03.2020 at 09:58.
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  #109  
Old 27.03.2020, 09:54
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I honestly dont understand this market... everything is in flames but the stock market for the last 3 days was up... and GROWING...

Why?

My ONLY theory is that people with low income will now get the 1200 usd emergency salaries, which are more than what they used to earn, meaning, they will be able to spend MORE... BUT, this will - off course - come with the down side that US will have to manage how to deal with this gigantic new debt in the future...

Also, the question that remains on the table is... For how long will this last? Will that be enough?
FED's unlimited stimulus is your answer
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  #110  
Old 27.03.2020, 09:58
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Hah I am far from a expert, probably not even barely competent, but I have seen patterns in the last couple of years and learned to trust some instincts. I think it will drop again, maybe not as low as last week but close enough when the pandemics it their worst and this surge of optimism takes a hit and sadly more bodies start piling up in the EU and especially USA. It hasn't peaked yet.

But yeah, I could of course be wrong about the upcoming dip so lets see.
last couple of years? there was nothing went on in the past 2 years before this crash set aside a market dip at Xmas 2018 which it turned out a big opportunity to buy. You need to go back to 2008 to see movements similar to what we have experienced in this month.
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  #111  
Old 27.03.2020, 10:04
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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It's interesting to read all 'predictions' made in this thread. Ultimately, however, nobody knows where the S&P 500 will be in the next week, month, or year. If there was consensus that markets will be going down, they'll be down already. If there was consensus that markets will be going up, they'll be up already.

IMHO there are way too many unknowns for anyone to actually benefit from timing this market. Both on the upside (surprise-treatment, early vaccine, hot and early summer) and on the downside (US riots, 2nd/3rd wave, more protectionism).

Markets will either go up or down, so at any point there's a 50% chance each pundit will get it right. Those who are lucky enough to be right will come back boasting. And help build some FOMO for the rest. But how many times in a row can they get lucky?

I'll just stay the course and stick to my pre-defined investment strategy.
If one can predict the markets say at 80% of moves then one can become multi millionaire quickly. No one can do such thing. We all make guesses and wish for the best. There are many indicators and news in the markets that can move the markets and you can get an idea about the next move but you need years of experience.

I try to implement a strategy that makes money without relying too much on predictions. Make money on the downside and the upside. It is not easy but it is possible.
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  #112  
Old 27.03.2020, 10:07
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I think you are slightly simplifying and generalizing things for your own benefit there, which is fine, but it's not just a 50% chance toss of the coin in every instance and if you look at the context of the situation, despite the unknowns and unpredictability, it's possible to make some reasonable guesses as to whether there will potentially be a dip or an upside. It's still a guess with no guarantees, but at least it's based on some logic of what is happening in the world around us.

As for my own investing strategy, the tech market keeps going up and will keep going up long-term as the world becomes ever-more more tech reliant. Examples:
  • Amazon and other large e-commerce stores powerful to fight them off will eventually dominate the market and crush most smaller businesses. They will grow a lot in the next decades and also as they expand into other market areas they either aren't in yet or are only now just dipping a toe in the water.
  • Google et al will continue to dominate the landscape and will turn into the mega-corporations of the future.
  • Tesla, though it's having a rocky time now, will I believe continue to be a true innovator and be a key player in the future of electric transport and renewable energy. They also are linked with SpaceX, another Musk outfit which will be one of the few space-operational outfits in the next couple of decades. I fact, most things Musk-related will imo be key players in our future.

There are many other companies I could name that I believe, without dramatizing, have significant parts to play in the future landscape of mankind. Though I know it's hard to see when you are living in the present and have it in your heads that things are already getting really advanced, well, they really kind of aren't.

We are still in a time in history where the old is colliding with the new and many emerging technologies (nanotechnology, 3D printing, biotech, cybernetics, power, space travel and mining etc etc) are still in their infancy (or have yet to breakout of concept or development stages, which they will) and where corporations are still expanding and finding out where their limits lie. We haven't yet got a real idea of what these companies will turn into, but I will bet my right bum cheek that they will be the ones influencing how we live our lives a century from now and beyond.

Tech companies are the only thing I will put my money on, not only because it is an area that I follow very closely, but because I think they are the future. I always try not only to look at what is on the near horizon, but also some years ahead to where things are developing and heading. When I am old, my goal is to have a lot of money generated from investments in megacorporation stocks made while they were still relatively young like now. Money that will go to helping to establish and secure future generations of my family, whether my own children or my extended family as a whole.

Lets see if it works out.
Tech is a nice bet for massive capital gains but there are other sectors with far more predictable returns. But I will agree a good stock portfolio needs some really innovative stocks like AAPL, AMZ etc.
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  #113  
Old 27.03.2020, 10:27
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I think you are slightly simplifying and generalizing things for your own benefit there, which is fine, but it's not just a 50% chance toss of the coin in every instance and if you look at the context of the situation, despite the unknowns and unpredictability, it's possible to make some reasonable guesses as to whether there will potentially be a dip or an upside. It's still a guess with no guarantees, but at least it's based on some logic of what is happening in the world around us.

As for my own investing strategy, the tech market keeps going up and will keep going up long-term as the world becomes ever-more more tech reliant. [...]
It's surely possible to make guesses. But where will it take you? After 15 years, ~92% of active funds underperform a market index [1]. These funds have people dedicated full-time, more experience, and more money & resources than you and I have. How are we supposed to do better by 'making guesses'? I personally advocate for buying the whole market regularly (e.g. monthly) and being a passive investor. I believe research and stats are on my side.

And don't get me wrong: I agree 100% with your point on tech. I also believe that it'll keep driving human progress and that it's likely to be less affected by the current working-remotely situation. But that's likely priced in already. At the time of writing, 3-month returns of the S&P 500 are -18.83%. Those of NASDAQ-100 are -13.58%. If you only invest in tech, you're likely to outperform the S&P 500 in the long run. But only because the beta of your portfolio will be higher. Higher risk, higher reward.

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If one can predict the markets say at 80% of moves then one can become multi millionaire quickly. No one can do such thing. We all make guesses and wish for the best. There are many indicators and news in the markets that can move the markets and you can get an idea about the next move but you need years of experience.

I try to implement a strategy that makes money without relying too much on predictions. Make money on the downside and the upside. It is not easy but it is possible.
Fully agree with the first part. Not even 80%. If you could predict 55% of the moves, you'll have a money machine. You would just have to spread your bets and let the law of large numbers apply. Virtually endless money. Only that I've never met anyone with endless money...

I disagree though on the 'needing years of experience' for the same arguments above. If you truly want a strategy that doesn't rely too much on predictions, follow the Bogleheads investment philosophy and be a passive investor. You won't be making money both on the way down and on the way though. That requires market timing. But market timing underperforms in the long run.
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  #114  
Old 27.03.2020, 11:09
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

What do you guys think about today?
  • Futures are down...
  • The Orange Man will pass the stimulus bill today

Up or Down?
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  #115  
Old 27.03.2020, 11:46
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I disagree though on the 'needing years of experience' for the same arguments above. If you truly want a strategy that doesn't rely too much on predictions, follow the Bogleheads investment philosophy and be a passive investor. You won't be making money both on the way down and on the way though. That requires market timing. But market timing underperforms in the long run.

Being a passive investor you risk to get decimated by the active investors and the funds. The most successful investors I meet are long term investors (they started years back) and they either follow the markets or they have an advisor to do that on their behalf. They also got a big boost after 2008 with the QE.
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  #116  
Old 27.03.2020, 11:47
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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What do you guys think about today?
  • Futures are down...
  • The Orange Man will pass the stimulus bill today

Up or Down?
After 3 days of gains most likely a down day but who knows? Let's see. To me it is more important what it will happen next week or the following weeks.
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  #117  
Old 27.03.2020, 13:05
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Being a passive investor you risk to get decimated by the active investors and the funds. The most successful investors I meet are long term investors (they started years back) and they either follow the markets or they have an advisor to do that on their behalf. They also got a big boost after 2008 with the QE.
Fully agree on being a long-term investor. But why can't you be a passive long-term investor? You simply buy-and-hold low cost ETFs. And how exactly do you risk getting decimated by the 'active investors' or the 'funds'? The article I linked (this one) precisely proves that, in the long run, passive investors (e.g. market trackers) beat active investors (e.g. timing-the-market approach).
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  #118  
Old 27.03.2020, 13:25
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Fully agree on being a long-term investor. But why can't you be a passive long-term investor? You simply buy-and-hold low cost ETFs. And how exactly do you risk getting decimated by the 'active investors' or the 'funds'? The article I linked (this one) precisely proves that, in the long run, passive investors (e.g. market trackers) beat active investors (e.g. timing-the-market approach).
If there's some things I have learnt from reading people's thoughts and strategies it is that:
  • Most people seem to think that their way is the best/safest/reliable
  • People frequently use similar terminology but apply different meanings, meaning that what one person says can often be different to another even if the words are the same
  • Just let people get on with their own investing life and you get on with yours and don't waste time getting involved in any pedantic debates about what constitutes "passive long term investing" etc if you are clear on your own meaning and what you want to do
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Old 27.03.2020, 14:29
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Tech is a nice bet for massive capital gains but there are other sectors with far more predictable returns. But I will agree a good stock portfolio needs some really innovative stocks like AAPL, AMZ etc.
Or just buy VOO (S&P500, of which 20% is tech), or even better, VTI (total market).
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Old 27.03.2020, 14:32
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Fully agree on being a long-term investor. But why can't you be a passive long-term investor? You simply buy-and-hold low cost ETFs. And how exactly do you risk getting decimated by the 'active investors' or the 'funds'? The article I linked (this one) precisely proves that, in the long run, passive investors (e.g. market trackers) beat active investors (e.g. timing-the-market approach).
Again buying ETFs means you just outsourcing the management of your portfolio to a portfolio manager at companies like Blackrock (and you are paying for this) for example. Many ETF investors have no clue what are the investments in their ETFs.

Low cost just means that the ETF manager spends the minimum of time looking after the ETF investments.

Past returns imply nothing about the future.

Getting decimated means when you need to money you may have to sell at a loss. If you don't need the money yes you can wait for the bounce but in the mean time the active investor has made 3 times as much.

Active investors sell when they are winning and lock their profits. And they buy when there is crash.
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