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  #121  
Old 27.03.2020, 14:35
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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If there's some things I have learnt from reading people's thoughts and strategies it is that:
  • Most people seem to think that their way is the best/safest/reliable
  • People frequently use similar terminology but apply different meanings, meaning that what one person says can often be different to another even if the words are the same
  • Just let people get on with their own investing life and you get on with yours and don't waste time getting involved in any pedantic debates about what constitutes "passive long term investing" etc if you are clear on your own meaning and what you want to do
Of course, people will do their own thing. There are many investors willing to discuss trading ideas and stocks invested. It is good to exchange ideas with people with track record in investing.
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  #122  
Old 27.03.2020, 15:01
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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It is good to exchange ideas with people with track record in investing.

In succesful investing would make more sense.
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  #123  
Old 27.03.2020, 16:14
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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I honestly dont understand this market... everything is in flames but the stock market for the last 3 days was up... and GROWING...

Why?
This is a common pattern where roughly 1/4 to 1/3 of the drop is gained back once the selling pressure subsides. The problem, of course, is determing where the bottom is, if we've seen it already or not. For now the financial markets are looking forward to the various government infusions, including the Swiss $100bln and the US $2 trillion.
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  #124  
Old 27.03.2020, 17:44
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Guys, experts, can I ask you for an advice? I am thinking about investing when all this kind of hits the rock bottom (i know, impossible, but we all can try) and buy XYZ and hold maybe for few years. The amount might be in 30-50k CHF.

Would you recommend PostFinance (where I already have a basic account), with their 90 CHF annual fee (plus brokerage fees are around 130 CHF for NYSE)? They make tax documents for free, so a minor plus. I am a beginner, not really wanting to do intense trading, really a proper buy and hold.

And any personal guesses for what might XYZ be for you? I don't mean specific stocks, but rather which investment vehicles overall
The simplest answer is probably to just buy a S&P500 index tracker.
Heck you could even buy it today if you have a long enough horizon. Get it & forget it.

I wouldn't just "try my luck". Over the long term markets rise. S&P500 is essentially the market.
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  #125  
Old 28.03.2020, 03:04
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

As I understood it, it's now impossible to "read" the market.

No profits will be posted for another month and only once normality has been restored will people be able to go out again and go about their daily lives.
And even then it will take one or two years until there's a vaccine and everybody has it before people will really "go out" again.

Then, even more important: due to the giant distortions that the FED and the ECB are applying to the market, what exactly is driving the stock-price?

I cannot imagine an outcome of this that isn't a total, utter apocalypse.
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  #126  
Old 28.03.2020, 12:17
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Even with Fridays falls the Dow Jones had it's best week since 1938. It's been up 20% above the lows that is what many people describe as a BULL market. We have no I idea what prices will be in a day, a week, a month or in a year, market timing is impossible.

I retired 5.5 years ago, in that time my investments in www.fundsmith.co.uk in Euros are still up 100%. Market fluctuations should best be ignored for a long term investor. There have been many big wobbles in that 5.5 years, had I been ,market timing I am sure I would have less capital than I do today.
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I cannot imagine an outcome of this that isn't a total, utter apocalypse.
When you buy a stock you are buying it's future profits, the World has been in a bad way before & the best companies will always survive. Look at Brown Forman, it's product Jack Daniels was made illegal by prohibition. The 40 surviving family members hold stock worth 12 billion USD.

Last edited by fatmanfilms; 28.03.2020 at 12:28.
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  #127  
Old 28.03.2020, 15:13
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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And even then it will take one or two years until there's a vaccine and everybody has it before people will really "go out" again.
Yes about the vaccine, but I'm not so sure about people going out again.

So far only people with severe symptoms are tested. As a consequence the measured death rate is definitely higher than if all infected were tested. Unfortunately nobody knows with reasonable certainty how big that gap is, we just don't have the data.

But it looks like testing capacities are approaching volumes where this ignorance can be removed, albeit gradually, see Iceland for instance. So we'll probably be on more solid ground in the not-so-distant future. And maybe regular testing will become part of our routine, maybe people can get their weekly swab taken when shopping, or something similar.
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  #128  
Old 28.03.2020, 16:51
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Even with Fridays falls the Dow Jones had it's best week since 1938. It's been up 20% above the lows that is what many people describe as a BULL market. We have no I idea what prices will be in a day, a week, a month or in a year, market timing is impossible.

I retired 5.5 years ago, in that time my investments in www.fundsmith.co.uk in Euros are still up 100%. Market fluctuations should best be ignored for a long term investor. There have been many big wobbles in that 5.5 years, had I been ,market timing I am sure I would have less capital than I do today.


When you buy a stock you are buying it's future profits, the World has been in a bad way before & the best companies will always survive. Look at Brown Forman, it's product Jack Daniels was made illegal by prohibition. The 40 surviving family members hold stock worth 12 billion USD.
Without looking at your specifics investments with this money manager, I would guess 40% of this 100% is due to weakening of Euro vs other currencies namely the USD. This can reverse in the future.

Also, (the obvious) past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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  #129  
Old 28.03.2020, 17:48
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Without looking at your specifics investments with this money manager, I would guess 40% of this 100% is due to weakening of Euro vs other currencies namely the USD. This can reverse in the future.

Also, (the obvious) past performance is not indicative of future performance.
It's not but good try, whilst the majority of stocks are listed in the US, revenue does not follow country of listing, Philip Morris international for example is US listed but has zero US sales.

True, however I suspect it will be the no 1 fund over 10 years, although we are only at 9 years, I have been investing for over 7

Edit with regard to strong currencies this will usually be negative for share prices, Nestle being a prime example, a company when 98% of it's profits comes from foreign currencies.

Last edited by fatmanfilms; 28.03.2020 at 18:10.
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  #130  
Old 28.03.2020, 18:17
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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As I understood it, it's now impossible to "read" the market.

No profits will be posted for another month and only once normality has been restored will people be able to go out again and go about their daily lives.
And even then it will take one or two years until there's a vaccine and everybody has it before people will really "go out" again.

Then, even more important: due to the giant distortions that the FED and the ECB are applying to the market, what exactly is driving the stock-price?

I cannot imagine an outcome of this that isn't a total, utter apocalypse.
Oh come on, it's far from "the apocolypse" and you don't need a vaccine to control the spread of a pandemic. This pandemic will be a brief blip in a history (and likely future) of worse pandemics. The world and its markets will recover.
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  #131  
Old 28.03.2020, 18:26
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Oh come on, it's far from "the apocolypse" and you don't need a vaccine to control the spread of a pandemic. This pandemic will be a brief blip in a history (and likely future) of worse pandemics. The world and its markets will recover.
Quicker than most believe, same was true in 2008, people did not want to invest in Fundsmith at inception in 2010, as at the time prospects looked bleak. 2 years later the same people did not want to invest as it had gone up by 50%, would they have invested if it had fallen 50%? clearly not. They are market timers that got it wrong, they will almost always get it wrong, history shows this.
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  #132  
Old 28.03.2020, 20:52
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Quicker than most believe, same was true in 2008, people did not want to invest in Fundsmith at inception in 2010, as at the time prospects looked bleak. 2 years later the same people did not want to invest as it had gone up by 50%, would they have invested if it had fallen 50%? clearly not. They are market timers that got it wrong, they will almost always get it wrong, history shows this.
2008 was a market problem created by the market. 2020 is not just a market problem and over which the market has little control.
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  #133  
Old 28.03.2020, 21:22
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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It's not but good try, whilst the majority of stocks are listed in the US, revenue does not follow country of listing, Philip Morris international for example is US listed but has zero US sales.

True, however I suspect it will be the no 1 fund over 10 years, although we are only at 9 years, I have been investing for over 7

Edit with regard to strong currencies this will usually be negative for share prices, Nestle being a prime example, a company when 98% of it's profits comes from foreign currencies.
Euro has lost a lot of value against USD. Many European companies like luxury items companies or German auto/parts industry get a lot of profit from the US and therefore USD income. USD linked income is coming from many regions of the world like the Middle East/Gulf for example. I think HKD is still pegged to USD. Tobacco stock you mentioned probably is just a tiny part of the fund. Latin America/ Canada still have currencies moving along with the USD dollar (not pegged).

Just convert your funds performance to USD to get the idea. I bet it won't be as impressive (at least like the one you posted, I don't really have the time to check this money manager).
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  #134  
Old 28.03.2020, 21:24
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Edit with regard to strong currencies this will usually be negative for share prices, Nestle being a prime example, a company when 98% of it's profits comes from foreign currencies.
Due to CHF appreciation vs everybody. It makes sense. CHF is a big bubble.
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  #135  
Old 28.03.2020, 21:26
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Quicker than most believe, same was true in 2008, people did not want to invest in Fundsmith at inception in 2010, as at the time prospects looked bleak. 2 years later the same people did not want to invest as it had gone up by 50%, would they have invested if it had fallen 50%? clearly not. They are market timers that got it wrong, they will almost always get it wrong, history shows this.
Nobody knows Fundsmith in the the City of London. At least I never heard of it nor I saw any advertisement. The first time I heard about it was on this forum.
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  #136  
Old 28.03.2020, 22:18
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Nobody knows Fundsmith in the the City of London. At least I never heard of it nor I saw any advertisement. The first time I heard about it was on this forum.
Then you know jack sh**t.
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  #137  
Old 28.03.2020, 23:47
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

If "the market" is all going to fix it in the long run, why is the FED et.al. pumping absolutely inconceivable amounts of money into it?

How would stocks look like if there was no bailout?

If the FED can "create" that much money and buy ETFs and all kinds of other derivatives - can't it just hand out money to everybody and we can all have a UBI while we go about our lives?
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  #138  
Old 29.03.2020, 09:36
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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If "the market" is all going to fix it in the long run, why is the FED et.al. pumping absolutely inconceivable amounts of money into it?

How would stocks look like if there was no bailout?

If the FED can "create" that much money and buy ETFs and all kinds of other derivatives - can't it just hand out money to everybody and we can all have a UBI while we go about our lives?
There is no bailout. There is liquidity available by the FED (=printing money). FED as far as we know now doesn't buy any stocks or ETFs. They buy bonds only. SNB and BOJ buy stocks.

Trump gives $1000 to everyone and $500 for every kid so money handouts have already started.

If there was no Fed and other central banks QE then stocks, prime real estate and other asset bubbles (art work, classic cars etc) would be at between 10-30% of current valuations.
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  #139  
Old 29.03.2020, 09:36
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Then you know jack sh**t.

whatever you say....
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  #140  
Old 29.03.2020, 12:57
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Nobody knows Fundsmith in the the City of London. At least I never heard of it nor I saw any advertisement. The first time I heard about it was on this forum.
Amazing as Terry Smith has been rather famous for the last 30 years & his fund that nobody ever heard of is the Largest UK find in existence. Pretty good in under 10 years
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If there was no Fed and other central banks QE then stocks, prime real estate and other asset bubbles (art work, classic cars etc) would be at between 10-30% of current valuations.
Wow I would love to be able to buy stock with a PE of 2 - 3. A house for 3-4 years rent? that just won't happen with interest rates below 20%
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