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Old 12.03.2020, 20:11
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Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Hi,



What do you all think about the market situation given the oil crisis / coronavirus pandemy? Good time to invest in stock market or better to wait for further drops?



I'm a bit surprised there are no posts on this topic at the forum - What are you thinking about investment opportunities?



Link to guardian article quoting biggest stock market fall since 2008 crisis:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...nancial-crisis


Curious to hear your thoughts!
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Old 12.03.2020, 20:14
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Hi,



What do you all think about the market situation given the oil crisis / coronavirus pandemy? Good time to invest in stock market or better to wait for further drops?



I'm a bit surprised there are no posts on this topic at the forum - What are you thinking about investment opportunities?



Link to guardian article quoting biggest stock market fall since 2008 crisis:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...nancial-crisis


Curious to hear your thoughts!
Invest in masks and hand disinfectant
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Old 12.03.2020, 20:30
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

I think we will reach peak hysteria soon once it goes out of control in the US and the US investors start to panic.

There are already quite a few bargains around, but there's no hurry...
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Old 12.03.2020, 20:36
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

One of Germany’s best know data scientists put the current crash in relative numbers into context with previous crashes: http://www.dkriesel.com/blog/2020/03..._nebeneinander

TLDR: wait.
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Old 12.03.2020, 21:03
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

I have 100% of liquidity (sold everything a couple of months ago) and I would start gradually investing , the more it drops, the more I would invest (preferably in mutual funds such as LU0070212591 or similar). The problem is that I don't have the tools to invest in CH....as I am still trying to understand how things work here .
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Old 12.03.2020, 22:01
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

TVIX for those willing to risk?
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Old 12.03.2020, 23:12
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Soon it could be the opportunity of a lifetime but not yet.
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Old 13.03.2020, 00:37
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

The opportunity of a lifetime were TSLA options last Summer.
I saw a video of somebody who had a thousand of them at 2€ - they peaked over 10000 at the top of the frenzy.
Of course, he sold them at a small loss...
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Old 13.03.2020, 07:57
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

I'll keep doing what I've always done. Invest x000 CHF in shares etc. every couple of months.
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Old 13.03.2020, 08:32
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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The opportunity of a lifetime were TSLA options last Summer.
I saw a video of somebody who had a thousand of them at 2€ - they peaked over 10000 at the top of the frenzy.
Of course, he sold them at a small loss...
there are opportunities of a lifetime all the time.

yes, hyped stuff such as tesla, bitcoin, etc.

but also boring stuff like facebook, amazon, starbucks.

if the cruiselines survive this episode, they're also likely to be multi-baggers.
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Old 13.03.2020, 08:38
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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there are opportunities of a lifetime all the time.

yes, hyped stuff such as tesla, bitcoin, etc.

but also boring stuff like facebook, amazon, starbucks.

if the cruiselines survive this episode, they're also likely to be multi-baggers.
Not that I have a clue but would bit coins not be the first casualties in a meltdown?
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Old 13.03.2020, 09:09
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Not that I have a clue but would bit coins not be the first casualties in a meltdown?
don't know about that, but i was referring to the period 2009-2017 when it went parabolic before crashing.
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Old 13.03.2020, 09:24
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Invest gradually.
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Old 13.03.2020, 09:45
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Any new recommendations for internet stock trading platforms in CH? Saxo Bank / Interactive Brokers et al?

Thanks!
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Old 13.03.2020, 10:12
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

Opportunities of a lifetime is the perfect example of an hyperbole.2008-2009 offered the same chances, only 11 years ago.

It's been only 1 week of going down and the US still has not seen any major disruption. I'm waiting for disruption at Italy/Spain/CH level but observed through the lens of US media. Even lesser problems will make more noise. CNBC will give drama lessons to Netflix

We don't know how many companies are close to default on their debts. But, at any given time there's always a set of people that took on too much debt. Yesterday Norwegian Air announced a 40% reduction in company size. Too soon to know who's going to fail....unless you're a extremely competent sell-side analyst.
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Old 13.03.2020, 10:24
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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TVIX for those willing to risk?
Index and inverse ETFs have been very good to me in chaotic times. For someone that has the time to watch the news and intraday moves closely, I think there is definitely potential with TVIX. It's easy to get caught unprepared though.
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Old 13.03.2020, 10:29
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Any new recommendations for internet stock trading platforms in CH? Saxo Bank / Interactive Brokers et al?

Thanks!
Interactive Brokers is very good platform.
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Old 13.03.2020, 10:32
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Opportunities of a lifetime is the perfect example of an hyperbole.2008-2009 offered the same chances, only 11 years ago.

It's been only 1 week of going down and the US still has not seen any major disruption. I'm waiting for disruption at Italy/Spain/CH level but observed through the lens of US media. Even lesser problems will make more noise. CNBC will give drama lessons to Netflix

We don't know how many companies are close to default on their debts. But, at any given time there's always a set of people that took on too much debt. Yesterday Norwegian Air announced a 40% reduction in company size. Too soon to know who's going to fail....unless you're a extremely competent sell-side analyst.
We do know many companies that have debt and with market shutdown they won't get enough cash flow in the following months. Obviously, not all of them will fail but in general I will stay with the big established names.
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Old 13.03.2020, 10:43
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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Hi,



What do you all think about the market situation given the oil crisis / coronavirus pandemy? Good time to invest in stock market or better to wait for further drops?



Curious to hear your thoughts!

I read that the average (US) bear market since 1945 drops about 33%. Right now we are just into bear market territory.


Invest some right now but expect some further drops. No-one can exactly time the bottom of a bear market so a gradual approach is my suggestion. Some of your purchases will be "too early" and some will be "too late" but in the fullness of time putting money into the markets during downturns does tend to pay off.


As a counterpoint I have a colleague who liquidated all of his investments in 2007 and early 2008 (very well timed) but then did not reinvest in 2008,9 or 10 as he was still "waiting for the bottom". He stopped talking about his investments by 2011 but I assume at some point he plowed his money back into the markets, but he missed a good bit of the rebound from the GFC.
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Old 13.03.2020, 11:04
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Re: Markets down - Invest now or wait further?

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As a counterpoint I have a colleague who liquidated all of his investments in 2007 and early 2008 (very well timed) but then did not reinvest in 2008,9 or 10 as he was still "waiting for the bottom". He stopped talking about his investments by 2011 but I assume at some point he plowed his money back into the markets, but he missed a good bit of the rebound from the GFC.
$10,000 invested in the SAP 500 for 15 years 31/12/04 to 31/12/19

Fully invested throughout $36418
Miss the best 10 days $18358
Miss the best 20 days $11908
Miss the best 30 days $8150
Miss the best 40 days $5857

As a long term investor it pays to stay invested & as nobody has the skill to time the market.
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