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  #101  
Old 11.11.2020, 08:10
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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IBM is still kicking around...
Kodak had revenue of 1.2 billion in 2019, film production has doubled in the last 4 years. Stock is up over 50% YTD
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  #102  
Old 11.11.2020, 08:25
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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Really? Most top stocks of the 70s or 80s or 90s have disappeared. IBM, Kodak, Xerox, Nortel etc etc.
You're just making stuff up randomly with no basis in fact.

Three of your examples still exist, and Nortal went bust due to mismanagement which is pretty rare.

Other tech stocks from that era that most people would give their right arm to have bought at the start: Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, Verizon
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  #103  
Old 11.11.2020, 08:31
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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You're just making stuff up randomly with no basis in fact.

Three of your examples still exist, and Nortal went bust due to mismanagement which is pretty rare.

Other tech stocks from that era that most people would give their right arm to have bought at the start: Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, Verizon
Indeed the average Fundsmith company was founded in 1926, good companies manage to survive in difficult times.
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  #104  
Old 11.11.2020, 09:08
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

Can you guys please reply to post #100, major life decisions are hanging
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  #105  
Old 11.11.2020, 09:17
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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Can you guys please reply to post #100, major life decisions are hanging
Who knows? In ten years the biggest changes are probably going to be to you as a person, not the housing market.

Make sure you have enough land and your goat herd should grow nicely, maybe that's enough of an investment.
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  #106  
Old 11.11.2020, 09:23
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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Imagine I buy a 400k property (200k cash and 200k mortgage) @ <1% interest, locked in for say 10 years.
If the interest rate climbs up drastically suddenly/gradually, what should my best course of action be after 10 years? Sell it? Pay the remaining 200k off?
The property is meant to be my future retirement place (in 15 years) and holiday destination now already (weekends).

Plenty of decent properties to be had for under 400k if your needs are humble (I am single, child free and a low maintenance person). Obviously not in hot spots but as I am a goat herder, I am looking for non-populated mountainous regions.
Let's say rates go up to 6% and the property value goes down to 200k. Then options:

1. you can pay 1k a year in interest
2. you can pay off 200k of mortgage
3. you can sell the house and use the proceeds to pay off the mortgage and then go find somewhere to rent
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  #107  
Old 11.11.2020, 09:40
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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Can you guys please reply to post #100, major life decisions are hanging
Look back over the last 75 years. There have been slumps in property values, but only temporary ones and the value of property has risen substantially. As long as the population increases, they will need somewhere to live.

Don’t think of it as an investment, but a roof over your head. With 10 year mortgages at under 1% I would invest as little of you own cash in your property and get as large a cheap mortgage as possible.

In 10 years you can decide, depending on mortgage rates then, whether to continue with one or use your investments to pay off the mortgage...
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  #108  
Old 11.11.2020, 10:00
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

So 400,000 property
I pay 130,000 upfront and take out 10-year mortgage for the remaining 270,000.


Fixed-rate mortgage by provider 1
10 years from 0.84%
Interest costs
CHF 182/month
-
Fast-forward 10 years and it's time to re-negotiate my mortgage for another 10 years.

Bank now thinks the property is worth 700,000 and not 400,000. Does that mean the new mortgage will be based on the 700,000 price or the original 400,000 price?
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  #109  
Old 11.11.2020, 10:07
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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So 400,000 property
I pay 130,000 upfront and take out 10-year mortgage for the remaining 270,000.


Fixed-rate mortgage by provider 1
10 years from 0.84%
Interest costs
CHF 182/month
-
Fast-forward 10 years and it's time to re-negotiate my mortgage for another 10 years.

Bank now thinks the property is worth 700,000 and not 400,000. Does that mean the new mortgage will be based on the 700,000 price or the original 400,000 price?
Yes - for determining the deposit size and it's impact on the rate. As regards whether they allow you to borrow more that depends on your salary.
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  #110  
Old 11.11.2020, 10:16
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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Kodak had revenue of 1.2 billion in 2019, film production has doubled in the last 4 years. Stock is up over 50% YTD
Kodak is a pharma company now I think.
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  #111  
Old 11.11.2020, 10:19
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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You're just making stuff up randomly with no basis in fact.

Three of your examples still exist, and Nortal went bust due to mismanagement which is pretty rare.

Other tech stocks from that era that most people would give their right arm to have bought at the start: Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, Verizon
Some survived but most didn't. The companies I mentioned may still exist but they are not top companies now.

You should look at which companies were top holdings in the 70s, 80s, 90s and the ones that still survive today.
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  #112  
Old 11.11.2020, 10:21
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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Look back over the last 75 years. There have been slumps in property values, but only temporary ones and the value of property has risen substantially. As long as the population increases, they will need somewhere to live.

Don’t think of it as an investment, but a roof over your head. With 10 year mortgages at under 1% I would invest as little of you own cash in your property and get as large a cheap mortgage as possible.

In 10 years you can decide, depending on mortgage rates then, whether to continue with one or use your investments to pay off the mortgage...
The area needs to be in demand and more people moving in. Take for example Detroit that went the other way.
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  #113  
Old 11.11.2020, 10:22
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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Some survived but most didn't. The companies I mentioned may still exist but they are not top companies now.

You should look at which companies were top holdings in the 70s, 80s, 90s and the ones that still survive today.
Actually if you want to make a point, it's helpful for you to present some sort of summary with evidence, not just make statements.

And you didn't say they are no longer top companies, you said they no longer exist.
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  #114  
Old 11.11.2020, 10:26
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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Yes - for determining the deposit size and it's impact on the rate. As regards whether they allow you to borrow more that depends on your salary.
- Ok, so if my salary becomes bad by the 10-year mark, I still would have the option to pay off the remaining 270000 and own the house outright and tell the bank to piss off?


- What if I have no money left at the 10-year mark and the bank repossess my house. Do they get to keep the initial 130000 deposit too?
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  #115  
Old 11.11.2020, 10:28
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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I am single, child free and a low maintenance person.
The frequent rephrasing of the same question across multiple threads and your post below suggest otherwise to me 😉
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Can you guys please reply to post #100, major life decisions are hanging
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  #116  
Old 11.11.2020, 10:32
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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The point of my post is all investments that I have listed were from no-brainer category available and obvious to anyone . They did not require any reading of investment journals (what a waste) or diversification.
Right.
Everything seems a no-brainer in hindsight.
In 95+% of cases, stock pickers who "succeed" just got lucky with their picks (not due to skills).

P.S. I also dipped my toes into a bit of Palantir (just some play money; although I got burned by Slack IPO thus far ), because I work in the domain and they seem to have a good future to me.

Last edited by gipfelisturmer; 11.11.2020 at 10:42.
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  #117  
Old 11.11.2020, 10:46
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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Some survived but most didn't. The companies I mentioned may still exist but they are not top companies now.

You should look at which companies were top holdings in the 70s, 80s, 90s and the ones that still survive today.
I think what's important when investing is to remember you're buying a stake in the company, and not the share price. Over time, a good company will return value to shareholders (buybacks, dividends, retained earnings), so even if the company eventually "disappears" (which might anyway mean being bought by another), a good quality company should have given a decent shareholder return over time. A good quote I read regarding value is "all valuation techniques are shorthand for good discounted cash flow analysis".

Also regarding that, it gives a good argument for just buying an index (e.g. S&P500). You will automatically sell the "losers" and buy the "winners" as it's market cap based. For those who don't want to spend any time actively managing investments, it's hard to argue against just buying an index.
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  #118  
Old 11.11.2020, 10:53
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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Kodak is a pharma company now I think.
So what? The do still make film.
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  #119  
Old 11.11.2020, 11:03
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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😉
A low maintenance person from outgoing costs point of view, but a high maintenance person from sucking information POV
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  #120  
Old 11.11.2020, 13:46
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Re: Should I buy a home or invest? I just reached 200k in savings and they are sittin

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Right.
Everything seems a no-brainer in hindsight.
In 95+% of cases, stock pickers who "succeed" just got lucky with their picks (not due to skills).

P.S. I also dipped my toes into a bit of Palantir (just some play money; although I got burned by Slack IPO thus far ), because I work in the domain and they seem to have a good future to me.
My wife suggested Slack at IPO, thinking it is another Zoom. I read about origins of the company and in 20 minutes knew it is a bail out for original investors. Luck has nothing to do with it. If you have read that original founder failed at video game and built Slack on software leftover of that video game to bail out himself and his original investor in that dumb video venture you would have steered clear too.
There is no hindsight involved, You invest in the best in class when they IPO. How much insight one needs to conclude : Visa or GS or UPS is going public....Should I invest? Will their business model fail?
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