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Old 18.06.2020, 07:44
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Euro - CHF parity?

According to UBS economist Daniel Kalt quoted in the Tribune de Geneve the Euro / CHF should reach parity within a few years. Is this a realistic scenario? I had always assumed that if the Eurozone could stabilise and overcome the debt crisis of countries like Greece and Italy that the exchange rate would go back to being something like 1 CHF = 70 cent
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Old 18.06.2020, 09:24
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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According to UBS economist Daniel Kalt quoted in the Tribune de Geneve the Euro / CHF should reach parity within a few years. Is this a realistic scenario? I had always assumed that if the Eurozone could stabilise and overcome the debt crisis of countries like Greece and Italy that the exchange rate would go back to being something like 1 CHF = 70 cent
Eurozone is a mess, I think that realistic.
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Old 18.06.2020, 09:33
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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According to UBS economist Daniel Kalt quoted in the Tribune de Geneve the Euro / CHF should reach parity within a few years. Is this a realistic scenario? I had always assumed that if the Eurozone could stabilise and overcome the debt crisis of countries like Greece and Italy that the exchange rate would go back to being something like 1 CHF = 70 cent

Do you have a link or reference you could share on this? While I have no opinion either way, would be interested to read this view. thanks....
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Old 18.06.2020, 09:37
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

I'm not sure you need a published source, other than takings look at the graph. The franc has been there before, albeit briefly, and the CHF/EUR graph trend over the last couple of years is pretty clear...
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Old 18.06.2020, 09:41
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

I recall hearing in the mid 80s that it was likely that the swissy and the US dollar would be at par in the then future. I recall the laughter and disbelief. It was an economist from UBS too, as I recall

The franc reached parity with the dollar in 2009.

It will happen
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Old 18.06.2020, 10:11
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

The CHF was already worth more than the EUR in 2015. Without SNB intervention, it could be at parity or worth more than the EUR...
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Old 18.06.2020, 10:21
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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Do you have a link or reference you could share on this? While I have no opinion either way, would be interested to read this view. thanks....

In is on tdg.ch today but you have to be a subscriber to read the full article
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Old 18.06.2020, 10:22
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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I'm not sure you need a published source, other than takings look at the graph. The franc has been there before, albeit briefly, and the CHF/EUR graph trend over the last couple of years is pretty clear...

yes, but isnīt that because of continued crisis in the eurozone? I wonder just how long things can stay as they are with the euro without some kind of monetary reform being required.
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Old 18.06.2020, 10:38
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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The franc reached parity with the dollar in 2009.

It will happen
It went way past parity
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Old 18.06.2020, 10:59
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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It went way past parity
EUR 1 = CHF 0.70 as I recall.

Tom
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Old 18.06.2020, 11:09
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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EUR 1 = CHF 0.70 as I recall.

Tom
I think you mean USD not EURO
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Old 18.06.2020, 11:10
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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According to UBS economist Daniel Kalt quoted in the Tribune de Geneve the Euro / CHF should reach parity within a few years. Is this a realistic scenario? I had always assumed that if the Eurozone could stabilise and overcome the debt crisis of countries like Greece and Italy that the exchange rate would go back to being something like 1 CHF = 70 cent
The narrative 4-5 years ago was that people in the EU wanted to put their money in a safe currency, therefore CHF goes up. But, is there any data that supports that narrative?

I don't have subscription to any data provider, but could someone check the trade volume for CHF/EUR and CHF/USD?
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Old 18.06.2020, 12:09
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

Not just people in the EU. People everywhere view the swissy as a safe haven.

Try and source a CHF1000 note. You might find one or two, but I doubt if you could find 10 or 20. They are in very short supply.
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Old 18.06.2020, 12:20
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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Try and source a CHF1000 note. You might find one or two, but I doubt if you could find 10 or 20. They are in very short supply.
No, they are super easy to get. Go at your bank, ask for X amount in cash in 1000 bills. No questions asked.

UBS seem to be a bit more of a hassle, certain branches have limits on 10k but Credit Suisse is super easy in getting large amount of cash in big bills
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Old 18.06.2020, 12:49
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

Frankly the Euro isn't that far from parity with the CHF even today, the spread is something like 1.03 to 1.08. It's not going to take much to shift the Euro to parity, a bit of excitement over Brexit, a tiff between the EU and Trump would probably suffice.
The last time the CHF hit these levels the Swiss National Bank intervened buying up large amounts of Euros, but I believe they won't do that any more. Anyway Swiss industry has largely worked out how to live with a high-value CHF.
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Old 18.06.2020, 12:54
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

Before the covid crisis I would bet on CHF suppressing EURO. I am not sure at the moment. "Both" economies will be affected badly, the question is which will do worse. Germany is the major powerhouse behind EURO. Both Germany and Switzerland are heavily dependent on exports. Maybe Switzerland being small means less micro-diversification.

So I would not be surprised if the crisis drags on for more than 2 years that Switzerland could be pretty badly affected.... In that case will the economy stand for CHF or sentiments...
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Old 18.06.2020, 13:36
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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Not just people in the EU. People everywhere view the swissy as a safe haven.

Try and source a CHF1000 note. You might find one or two, but I doubt if you could find 10 or 20. They are in very short supply.
Huh? Got 42 of them when I paid for my car in cash...

Just ask any big bank branch and they’ll have them. Smaller ones won’t as they don’t stock large amounts of cash. Similarly, they are not in everyday use, but that’s not a fair measure of available currency. I don’t think that foreign investors investing in CHF are stashing 1000 CHF notes in their mattresses...
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Old 18.06.2020, 14:38
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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Huh? Got 42 of them when I paid for my car in cash...

Just ask any big bank branch and theyíll have them. Smaller ones wonít as they donít stock large amounts of cash. Similarly, they are not in everyday use, but thatís not a fair measure of available currency. I donít think that foreign investors investing in CHF are stashing 1000 CHF notes in their mattresses...
in excess of 78% of Swiss Currency bu value is 1000 chf notes, easy to spend at a kiosk, unlike a £50 note in the UK
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Old 18.06.2020, 18:05
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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in excess of 78% of Swiss Currency bu value is 1000 chf notes, easy to spend at a kiosk, unlike a £50 note in the UK
Try tendering a £100 note in England.
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Old 19.06.2020, 14:16
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Re: Euro - CHF parity?

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in excess of 78% of Swiss Currency bu value is 1000 chf notes, easy to spend at a kiosk, unlike a £50 note in the UK
Actually it's 59%, and 17% each for 100 and 200 notes.
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