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  #201  
Old 28.08.2020, 21:24
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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Perhaps by a couple of percent, before FS started Terry back tested the strategy, it yielded over 16% for the previous 40 years. If you take from late 2002 when Terry started the strategy with the Tullet Prebon pension scheme plus FS since 2010 the return is over 16% as predicted.

If you assume investing from age 40, with death at 90 you will end up with a serious wealth tax bill throughout retirement.
And more than sufficient cash to live on...
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  #202  
Old 28.08.2020, 22:42
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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And more than sufficient cash to live on...
Since i belong to the biggest foreign resident population in Zurich (Portuguese) i have many testimonials to think about it.

Of course the world changed and now we live 90...95 years in optimistic scenario.

But i do not approve working like alcoholic during 20...65 and then retirement.

So i think about not working from 40 to 50 and then prepare my retirement

PS: I did not explain why but i see people not having travels, living in a small room and at 65 oh yes lets build a mansion like Stallone.

From thousands of portuguese return that is equal to happiness zero.

Happiness is the people that worked 80% or 6 months and 6 months vacations (50/50). Having lovers every week. La bella vida
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  #203  
Old 28.08.2020, 23:16
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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Since i belong to the biggest foreign resident population in Zurich (Portuguese) i have many testimonials to think about it.

Of course the world changed and now we live 90...95 years in optimistic scenario.

But i do not approve working like alcoholic during 20...65 and then retirement.

So i think about not working from 40 to 50 and then prepare my retirement

PS: I did not explain why but i see people not having travels, living in a small room and at 65 oh yes lets build a mansion like Stallone.

From thousands of portuguese return that is equal to happiness zero.

Happiness is the people that worked 80% or 6 months and 6 months vacations (50/50). Having lovers every week. La bella vida
Not working from 40 to 50 and then prepare your retirement sounds...unrealistic. You know you prepare your retirement by working, yes?
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  #204  
Old 28.08.2020, 23:28
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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Not working from 40 to 50 and then prepare your retirement sounds...unrealistic. You know you prepare your retirement by working, yes?
Of course. The thing is When you compare a country with 25% salary my calculation is:

You work 15 years here your income is 60 years there. So the idea is work 15 years and retire

PS: For a post is hard to explain. I have this discussion a lot in the bank with Swiss and British people.

If you come from a place where real estate costs almost as Switzerland this thought makes no sense.

When i came to Zurich, a flat (new and central) in Porto was around 150k. So means with 600k you can buy 4 and live on rent income. 600k can be 15 years of saving - counting also with 2nd pillar for 1 of the flats (main residence).

Now in 2020, Porto with all awards of best city in Europe for a city trip doubled and you need around 1 million so my idea to retire at 40 maybe not feasible.

But 45 i think so

Last edited by Superfast; 28.08.2020 at 23:42.
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  #205  
Old 28.08.2020, 23:35
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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Yes. If you decide to retire in Switzerland they assume you work 44 years.

Porto cost of living duplicated from 2011 until nowadays and also as i said we live 90 years now.

This depends on personal base and will be a extensive report but if you own 3 or 4 apartments in Porto and you have worked 25-45 in Switzerland.

You join the pension of Switzerland and income of 4 apartments and you can retire.

The question is: Can you buy 4 flats in Porto working 25 to 40 in Switzerland? Nowadays maybe hard. Cheap is 150 * 4 but realistic 250 * 4 meaning 600k to 1 million.

Can you save 1 million in 15 years (70k/ year)? Maybe with single income is hard. For a couple working in many areas seems quite easy
Things aren't usually as we plan them. People divorce. Continuous employment isn't really a sure thing. One may live till 90 but might not know anymore who they are at 60. Areas where you invest lose value. We can't count on mobility. Jobs, career and job markets change. Etc.
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  #206  
Old 31.08.2020, 08:36
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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Perhaps by a couple of percent, before FS started Terry back tested the strategy, it yielded over 16% for the previous 40 years. If you take from late 2002 when Terry started the strategy with the Tullet Prebon pension scheme plus FS since 2010 the return is over 16% as predicted.

If you assume investing from age 40, with death at 90 you will end up with a serious wealth tax bill throughout retirement.
SSON maybe for another 10, 15 years. Fundsmith? I doubt it due to its size. Remember Berkshire? Easier to double 1BN than 100BN.
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  #207  
Old 31.08.2020, 12:03
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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SSON maybe for another 10, 15 years. Fundsmith? I doubt it due to its size. Remember Berkshire? Easier to double 1BN than 100BN.
Since FS owns under 1% of the companies it invests in, it won't be an issue as those companies are growing at the same rate as FS. This has been mentioned by 'spectators' for 5 years, for the last 8 years the press has said they will underperform as they invest in the 'wrong' shares, it's tripled in that time.

Fundsmith UK + Luxembourg 25 billion

Average Market cap 133 billion so huge liquidity, entire fund can be liquidated in a couple of weeks.

By increasing the no of holdings from 20 at inception to 29 has helped, I don't believe 1-2% of each company would be an issue. Remember 2 Vanguard funds VFINX + VTSMX own 5% of Microsoft.
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  #208  
Old 31.08.2020, 12:24
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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SSON maybe for another 10, 15 years. Fundsmith? I doubt it due to its size. Remember Berkshire? Easier to double 1BN than 100BN.
Berkshire Hathway is about 30 times the size of Fundsmith. I think its a long, long time before size becomes a problem for FS. Probably won't ever happen to a British based fund in large-cap global equity. Certainly I don't think Terry will still be active by the time it happens.
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  #209  
Old 01.09.2020, 11:17
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

Not sure if Dalai Lama really said that but sound like a good quote Goes with this thread.

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  #210  
Old 01.09.2020, 17:36
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

That's very nice quote and if I would have such wealth as he had, I could write something similar, however we, the regular people, have to pay rent, health insurance and feed the family...

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Not sure if Dalai Lama really said that but sound like a good quote Goes with this thread.
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  #211  
Old 01.09.2020, 18:55
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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Not sure if Dalai Lama really said that but sound like a good quote Goes with this thread.

Why come into a finance thread and make a pretentious patronising post like this, as though you are conveying something meaningful and enlightening us? No-one here is sacrificing their health to invest their money ad we are just trying to make the most of what we have so that we can retire early and/or in more comfort and enjoy our health longer than if we worked to retirement age or beyond.
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  #212  
Old 01.09.2020, 22:43
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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Why come into a finance thread and make a pretentious patronising post like this, as though you are conveying something meaningful and enlightening us? No-one here is sacrificing their health to invest their money ad we are just trying to make the most of what we have so that we can retire early and/or in more comfort and enjoy our health longer than if we worked to retirement age or beyond.
Umm! you feeling well? Someone posted earlier saying to me that I should not worry too much about the future. I came across this quote by coincidence and thought about this thread, as I had started this thread. The quote applies to me as a self reminder and not as a sermon to you or anyone else.


Do you work for the Chinese governement and get triggered by any Dalai Lama quote? Relax apaprently it is not even from him. I still think it is a good quote and worth keeping in mind. Feel free to stay triggered though.
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  #213  
Old 02.09.2020, 07:31
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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Umm! you feeling well? Someone posted earlier saying to me that I should not worry too much about the future. I came across this quote by coincidence and thought about this thread, as I had started this thread. The quote applies to me as a self reminder and not as a sermon to you or anyone else.


Do you work for the Chinese governement and get triggered by any Dalai Lama quote? Relax apaprently it is not even from him. I still think it is a good quote and worth keeping in mind. Feel free to stay triggered though.
I realise that you may not be the sharpest tool in the box, but you didn't quote any other post where your picture would make sense and it looks like you just posted a random pretentious quote with negative connotations about making money that was completely out of place within a thread where people are trying to have adult conversations (more or less) about investing.

Please stop posting guff just for the sake of posting guff, as you seem to be doing it a fair bit lately.
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  #214  
Old 02.09.2020, 08:01
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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I realise that you may not be the sharpest tool in the box
If being the sharpest tool in the box means having a salty personality, then no thanks.

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but you didn't quote any other post where your picture would make sense and it looks like you just posted a random pretentious quote with negative connotations about making money
Wow! you really are a touchy person. So much drama over a quote? Even going out of the way to give me red blobs You must be dealing with some serious first world problems! There is nothing pretentious about the quote nor anything wrong with making money. For a sharp tool that quote really went over your head.
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Old 02.09.2020, 08:13
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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Interesting thread, especially to see so many expats here without kids.

My thinking is that we can always go back to E-Eu to my home country, buy an estate by the lake and just chill the next 20 years. Albeit, no infrastructure around, the healthcare system lacks everything and politics is nuts, but we could be building our bubble if needed.

But would I want to leave the kids behind after going through the stress of raising a family without any grandma-grandpa support? Probably not. Will my kids have any Hungarian identity? Very unlikely, maybe as a second, alternative heritage to their learnt Swissness. I definitely don't want to uproot them for my own purposes. So unless they start backpacking to Australia or somewhere far with no intention to return, we'll probably be here and support them (also so that they might support us later when we will be 80+, if at all).
Haha, same here. Same way of thinking. My eldest child identifies herself more as "Swiss" already (although we don't have Swiss citizenship yet rofl, but I don't have the heart to tell her so). I own a home in my native country (inherited) which is renovated for quite a few years already, we can move there anytime if we want. We have invested together in another property too, it was too cheap for our Swiss income not to do it. I do not worry from this pov. However, we'll live where kids decide to live, or probably spent time in both countries. Definitely not uproot myself one more time and move to some other (sunnier, more Southern) place where I can probably already speak the lingo, perfect it in no time but would still feel like a foreigner. I don't think one needs that when old.
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  #216  
Old 02.09.2020, 08:15
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

INTL / Intel are starting to crawl back up again... already made a nice little chunk in the last few days! https://investorplace.com/2020/08/bu...ebounds-to-60/

When their Tioger Lake CPU's are launched and flood the market then it will rise to around 55-60 and stay there until their new 10nm desktop CPU's are released, upon which time I think it will rise to 65-70. In a 2-3 years when their major issues are on the way to being resolved, I predict 100+.

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If being the sharpest tool in the box means having a salty personality, then no thanks.
I happen to love my sweet and salty self, but thanks.
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Old 02.09.2020, 08:27
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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INTL / Intel are starting to crawl back up again... already made a nice little chunk in the last few days! https://investorplace.com/2020/08/bu...ebounds-to-60/

When their Tioger Lake CPU's are launched and flood the market then it will rise to around 55-60 and stay there until their new 10nm desktop CPU's are released, upon which time I think it will rise to 65-70. In a 2-3 years when their major issues are on the way to being resolved, I predict 100+.



I happen to love my sweet and salty self, but thanks.
I'm thinking Intel is still a bit more of a gamble, AMD would be (is) where I've put some money. Intels chips will be released to a far smaller market share than what they've enjoyed in the past. They sat on their monopoly for too long and have been surpassed. If you look to buy a laptop today you've as much chance of an AMD as Intel on the shelf.
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Old 02.09.2020, 08:39
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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I'm thinking Intel is still a bit more of a gamble, AMD would be (is) where I've put some money. Intels chips will be released to a far smaller market share than what they've enjoyed in the past. They sat on their monopoly for too long and have been surpassed. If you look to buy a laptop today you've as much chance of an AMD as Intel on the shelf.
The time to put money on AMD was some months ago... now it's imo reaching a peak and this is due to lack of competition from Intel who were caught with their pants down for the last 2 years. AMD may rise some more on the strength of Zen3 which will be released in Q4, but at the moment it's too risky to me. I so regret not investing in it when I knew full well that it was a crazy bargain at $10, but c'est la vie.

However, lets be realistic about the power of AMD to supplant Intel... Intel are a HUGE company with HUGE marketing muscle and Tiger Lake looks like it will provide a lot of processing power and have strong graphics performance using Intels new XE GPU's. Major system builders are still clearly holding off building high-end premium systems with AMD and as soon as Tiger Lake is released you will see the premium devices like Lenovo 7i and 9i etc using Intel CPU's only. Thunderbolt 4 will also be a major selling point for Intel devices and until USB 4.0 arrives and becomes standard (end of 2021 most likely) then AMD are going to lag behind.

AMD are still regarded by OEM's (and in the minds of the vast majority of non-tech savvy consumers) as low and mid-tier options in the laptop arena and that will likely not change for a year or two yet.
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  #219  
Old 02.09.2020, 09:45
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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The time to put money on AMD was some months ago... now it's imo reaching a peak and this is due to lack of competition from Intel who were caught with their pants down for the last 2 years. AMD may rise some more on the strength of Zen3 which will be released in Q4, but at the moment it's too risky to me. I so regret not investing in it when I knew full well that it was a crazy bargain at $10, but c'est la vie.

However, lets be realistic about the power of AMD to supplant Intel... Intel are a HUGE company with HUGE marketing muscle and Tiger Lake looks like it will provide a lot of processing power and have strong graphics performance using Intels new XE GPU's. Major system builders are still clearly holding off building high-end premium systems with AMD and as soon as Tiger Lake is released you will see the premium devices like Lenovo 7i and 9i etc using Intel CPU's only. Thunderbolt 4 will also be a major selling point for Intel devices and until USB 4.0 arrives and becomes standard (end of 2021 most likely) then AMD are going to lag behind.

AMD are still regarded by OEM's (and in the minds of the vast majority of non-tech savvy consumers) as low and mid-tier options in the laptop arena and that will likely not change for a year or two yet.
I went in mid July when there were rumblings of delays in the intel next gen chip releases. This puts them behind AMD for the next 2 years. I could be completely wrong. AMD has dragged itself out of the mid tier and into high with it's threadripper set. They've still got the bottom covered as well with their Ryzen set. It will be an interesting few years and should hopefully push innovation in both companies, but as a PC enthusist I'm happy to see more competition in the market.
Desktop market share is near 50/50, and laptops are taking a huge dive by intel as Lenovo turns to AMD. Well huge might be overstating it AMD doubled it's share, or Intel lost 10%.... Lenovo, HP, Asus, Origin laptops are all starting to put AMD in their mid-high level models.
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Old 02.09.2020, 09:57
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Re: Do you think about your future/retirement etc?

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I went in mid July when there were rumblings of delays in the intel next gen chip releases. This puts them behind AMD for the next 2 years. I could be completely wrong. AMD has dragged itself out of the mid tier and into high with it's threadripper set. They've still got the bottom covered as well with their Ryzen set. It will be an interesting few years and should hopefully push innovation in both companies, but as a PC enthusist I'm happy to see more competition in the market.
Desktop market share is near 50/50, and laptops are taking a huge dive by intel as Lenovo turns to AMD. Well huge might be overstating it AMD doubled it's share, or Intel lost 10%.... Lenovo, HP, Asus, Origin laptops are all starting to put AMD in their mid-high level models.
Lets see... but I have seen similar things play out before. Intel are simply too big to stay down for long and they still dwarf AMD in size and industry muscle.
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