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  #201  
Old 07.01.2021, 17:52
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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As Terry Smith said at inception, he expected the fund to underperform in good periods & have its best performance when things are bad. He was very confident there will be many bad periods , his aim was to do OK when things are good & very well when things are bad.
I'm amused by people who say FS is slipping and quote this year's performance.

2020:
Fundsmith - up 18.2%
Benchmark - up 12.3%

That's almost exactly the same as the annualized performance since inception:

2010-2020:
Fundsmith - up 18.2%
Benchmark - up 11.9%

It's going absolutely nowhere.

Interestingly so far Smithson has actually outperformed more in stronger markets.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 07.01.2021 at 18:04.
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  #202  
Old 07.01.2021, 18:29
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I'm amused by people who say FS is slipping and quote this year's performance.

2020:
Fundsmith - up 18.2%
Benchmark - up 12.3%

That's almost exactly the same as the annualized performance since inception:

2010-2020:
Fundsmith - up 18.2%
Benchmark - up 11.9%

It's going absolutely nowhere.

Interestingly so far Smithson has actually outperformed more in stronger markets.
Looking at the Smithson presentation before floatation the backtested FCF growth of Smithson was 22% v 13% for Fundsmith. All things being equal you could assume share prices to rise at those figures compound over the long term. On a 20-40 year holding period thats going to be a huge out performance for Smithson, yet a wonderful return for Fundsmith too.
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  #203  
Old 07.01.2021, 18:45
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Looking at the Smithson presentation before floatation the backtested FCF growth of Smithson was 22% v 13% for Fundsmith. All things being equal you could assume share prices to rise at those figures compound over the long term. On a 20-40 year holding period thats going to be a huge out performance for Smithson, yet a wonderful return for Fundsmith too.
I'm really excited for SSON in the next few years. I've been a big proponent of Baillie Gifford - but I think they've had their day in the sun in 2020 and SSON will be an exceptional performer over the next few years.
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  #204  
Old 07.01.2021, 18:51
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

What is your view of Warren Buffett's favorite market indicator reporting nears record high, signaling stocks are overvalued and riskier than ever.

Would you still enter into passive investment like FS now?
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  #205  
Old 07.01.2021, 18:54
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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What is your view of Warren Buffett's favorite market indicator reporting nears record high, signaling stocks are overvalued and riskier than ever.

Would you still enter into passive investment like FS now?
Passive?

My response would be i'd be even more likely to invest in FS and SSON in poor market conditions.
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  #206  
Old 07.01.2021, 19:43
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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What is your view of Warren Buffett's favorite market indicator reporting nears record high, signaling stocks are overvalued and riskier than ever.

Would you still enter into passive investment like FS now?
FS is not passive. But yes, I would not invest in passive funds now.
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  #207  
Old 07.01.2021, 19:55
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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What is your view of Warren Buffett's favorite market indicator reporting nears record high, signaling stocks are overvalued and riskier than ever.

Would you still enter into passive investment like FS now?
Tesla & Bitcoin have gone crazy, the companies that FS & Smithson invest in are growing their profits & share prices do have a correlation with the profits being made. It's safe to assume that interest rates will remain low for 5 years, probably much much longer. Warren Buffet said about 5 years ago that if interest rates stayed low then equities were a huge bargain & not expensive, only time will tell but interest rates are close to zero in most currencies if not negative, looks like the new normal. Companies that can grow FCF @ 12-30% will be massively good investments going forward.

Can anyone tell me when Tesla will have any FCF?
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  #208  
Old 07.01.2021, 19:59
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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What is your view of Warren Buffett's favorite market indicator reporting nears record high, signaling stocks are overvalued and riskier than ever.

Would you still enter into passive investment like FS now?
Look at the chart I posted on the previous page. That's the performance of stocks over 110 years. This period includes multiple occasions when stocks were said to be overvalued. It's a logarithmic scale so the performance of equities is actually understated in visual terms.
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  #209  
Old 07.01.2021, 20:06
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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FS is not passive. But yes, I would not invest in passive funds now.
Ops!!!! meant to write passiveETF 🤦🏻
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  #210  
Old 07.01.2021, 20:32
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Tesla & Bitcoin have gone crazy, the companies that FS & Smithson invest in are growing their profits & share prices do have a correlation with the profits being made. It's safe to assume that interest rates will remain low for 5 years, probably much much longer. Warren Buffet said about 5 years ago that if interest rates stayed low then equities were a huge bargain & not expensive, only time will tell but interest rates are close to zero in most currencies if not negative, looks like the new normal. Companies that can grow FCF @ 12-30% will be massively good investments going forward.

Can anyone tell me when Tesla will have any FCF?
Absolutely bananas. Tesla's market cap is approaching that of Facebook. In what realm could that possibly be justified? As for Bitcoin, I find it totally inexplicable. I've no interest in playing the game of finding the greater fool.
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  #211  
Old 07.01.2021, 22:34
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

What do you guys think about VGT (Vanguard InfoTech)?
Low TER, outperformed Nasdaq in the last couple of years, way better than SP500.
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  #212  
Old 07.01.2021, 23:25
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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What do you guys think about VGT (Vanguard InfoTech)?
Low TER, outperformed Nasdaq in the last couple of years, way better than SP500.
In spite of what many people thing, the QQQ is not about technology only.
Think abotu companies such as Costco, Walsgreen Boot Alliance, Amgen, or Ross Stores. They are all part of QQQ.
VGT, instead, is about tech only (that includes Visa/Mastercard/Paypal). It used to include Google and Facebook as well, but those stocks have been moved to the Communication Services sector.
Apple and Microsoft are the top two holdings, about 36% of the portfolio.
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  #213  
Old 08.01.2021, 00:53
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

so after 2-3 days intensive research I've realigned quite a bit and came up with the following from 2021 onwards, scrutiny welcome:

Funds:
- SSON (for growth)
- FS (for stability)
- VGT (for my tech taste)

Not adding SMT because of too high TSLA exposure
Not adding ARKK because of too high TSLA exposure
Not adding FEET because performance on a 5-yr scale is not convincing
Not adding PHI as I know nothing about APAC and China
Not adding VOO (Vanguard SP500) as FS seems better but less volatile
Not adding VOX (Vanguard Comms) as not significantly better than VOO and underperforming over 5 years significantly
Not adding total world market ETF's (yet, it might come - but FS seems better so far)

Any additional funds/ETFs I've overlooked that are worth (or better) than the ones above?
- MGK?

Direct stocks from before:
- MSFT (yes I know it overlaps a lot)
- INTC
- M(acy's) direct - gamble money

Watchlist: V, MA, ADBE (still to high valuations)

Pension scheme: Finpension MSCI World ex CH Quality
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  #214  
Old 08.01.2021, 09:36
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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so after 2-3 days intensive research I've realigned quite a bit and came up with the following from 2021 onwards, scrutiny welcome:

Funds:
- SSON (for growth)
- FS (for stability)
- VGT (for my tech taste)

Not adding SMT because of too high TSLA exposure
Not adding ARKK because of too high TSLA exposure
Not adding FEET because performance on a 5-yr scale is not convincing
Not adding PHI as I know nothing about APAC and China
Not adding VOO (Vanguard SP500) as FS seems better but less volatile
Not adding VOX (Vanguard Comms) as not significantly better than VOO and underperforming over 5 years significantly
Not adding total world market ETF's (yet, it might come - but FS seems better so far)

Any additional funds/ETFs I've overlooked that are worth (or better) than the ones above?
- MGK?

Direct stocks from before:
- MSFT (yes I know it overlaps a lot)
- INTC
- M(acy's) direct - gamble money

Watchlist: V, MA, ADBE (still to high valuations)

Pension scheme: Finpension MSCI World ex CH Quality
It looks familiar A lot of your reasoning makes sense to me. TSLA is one of the main reasons for me avoiding SMT and ARKK too.

I perhaps wouldn't disregard FEET too quickly. I don't own any myself but I think the fees were recently lowered and the management changed? I'm sure someone else will chip in. There is also a dedicated thread to FEET so you may want to look there.

You mention that V, MA and ADBE are on your watchlist. They are all in the top 10 holdings of VGT. For the sake of simplicity it may be better to go with either VGT or some individual picks. VGT possibly contains some bad businesses and I suspect the advice from many here will be the same as for the other passive index funds.

Individual stock picking I think is a whole different ball game. As Phil_MCR commented earlier you need both a stomach and a brain. You can start with FS and SSON and you should be able to sleep soundly knowing that all important decisions are being taken by other competent individuals on your behalf.

My assumption is for your pension it's one of the best options available. I'm not so educated on the topic and I'm not sure how old you are but my understanding is this is a good option the nearer you get to official retirement age. I only contribute the minimum to the second pillar as my philosophy is a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
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  #215  
Old 08.01.2021, 11:29
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

On the crypto-currency volatility, it's been a wild ride.

I invested the princely sum of EUR 4.5k in mid 2017 in Ethereum, Litecoin, Iota and a couple of ICOs etc. It's not a life-changing sum, but it was a meaningful amount and my wife was unimpressed with my decision.

By the end of December 2017, it was worth EUR 27k. My wife told me to sell it and forget about crypto. At one point, IOTA that I bought for 35 cents, was trading for CHF 6. Today, it's around 38 cents.

By the end of January 2018, it was worth EUR 1.5k. My wife was unhappy I had not sold.

As of today, it's worth EUR 12k.

I might be the only person in the world who bought crypto with no intention to trade them. If they still exist when I retire in a couple of decades, my kids can have them.
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  #216  
Old 08.01.2021, 13:49
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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It looks familiar A lot of your reasoning makes sense to me. TSLA is one of the main reasons for me avoiding SMT and ARKK too.
ARKK seems to "wouldabeen" a good investment in March, since then it's like a vertical ride upwards, even compared to VGT. I can't buy into it with a clear conscience.

Quote:
You mention that V, MA and ADBE are on your watchlist. They are all in the top 10 holdings of VGT.
True. What I meant is that I can "rebalance VGT" with some more of the above stocks. I'm already very long Microsoft

Quote:
VGT possibly contains some bad businesses and I suspect the advice from many here will be the same as for the other passive index funds.
The cream of VGT are good businesses and I'm happy to hold them (as I said I believe in tech ), so if it falls considerably, we are probably having the next downturm and I can easily double down a couple of times.

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Individual stock picking I think is a whole different ball game. As Phil_MCR commented earlier you need both a stomach and a brain. You can start with FS and SSON and you should be able to sleep soundly knowing that all important decisions are being taken by other competent individuals on your behalf.
I didn't start yesterday, and although I'm far off the SP500 long time returns I'm happy to pick individual stocks when I see the story and the analysis says it's a good purchase. This will be mostly only a small amount of my portfolio anyway.

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My assumption is for your pension it's one of the best options available. I'm not so educated on the topic and I'm not sure how old you are but my understanding is this is a good option the nearer you get to official retirement age. I only contribute the minimum to the second pillar as my philosophy is a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Quality investing is like the value picks of the growth sector. Stable income, stable cash flow, good return on equity (companies that "use money well"). It's beating MSCI world consistently by 3-4% points.

Around retirement this would be way too risky (I'm getting 41 this year), but it still has a good 15 years to run for me.
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  #217  
Old 08.01.2021, 14:56
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I didn't start yesterday, and although I'm far off the SP500 long time returns I'm happy to pick individual stocks when I see the story and the analysis says it's a good purchase. This will be mostly only a small amount of my portfolio anyway.

Quality investing is like the value picks of the growth sector. Stable income, stable cash flow, good return on equity (companies that "use money well"). It's beating MSCI world consistently by 3-4% points.

Around retirement this would be way too risky (I'm getting 41 this year), but it still has a good 15 years to run for me.
The precise reason why I'd pick individual stocks is to beat the long-term returns of the S&P 500. FS has achieved this.

Apologies, I was not so clear with respect to your pension. When I said my understanding is that this is a good option nearer to retirement age, what I meant was simply paying into a 3a account and not the specific constitution of that product (I'm not able to edit my original post).

Overall it sounds like you know what you're going to do and it seems like a sensible strategy
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  #218  
Old 08.01.2021, 15:28
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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The precise reason why I'd pick individual stocks is to beat the long-term returns of the S&P 500. FS has achieved this.
FS has, but not everyone is Terry Smith. To be precise, the large majority of the population is not TS (or Buffet).

Quote:
Apologies, I was not so clear with respect to your pension. When I said my understanding is that this is a good option nearer to retirement age, what I meant was simply paying into a 3a account and not the specific constitution of that product (I'm not able to edit my original post).
I think the earlier you start paying into your second and third pillar the better (compound interest over decades). Now that you can optimize your 3a I think it's a no-brainer to do yearly, especially if you want to buy property at one point. The second pillar is tax-free, but usually the products suck, so up to you if you see it worthwhile. I so far have maxed out all pension investments (always opted for max deductions) and have quite a nice sum in there that I can potentially leverage.

I have had employments where the 2nd pillar products appreciated 4-8% per year (and that goes onto your full amount!) and the lowest they go is usually zero, so if you have some 6-digit figure in there it can be a nice cushion and a zero downward risk.
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  #219  
Old 08.01.2021, 15:36
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I think the earlier you start paying into your second and third pillar the better (compound interest over decades). Now that you can optimize your 3a I think it's a no-brainer to do yearly, especially if you want to buy property at one point. The second pillar is tax-free, but usually the products suck, so up to you if you see it worthwhile. I so far have maxed out all pension investments (always opted for max deductions) and have quite a nice sum in there that I can potentially leverage.

I have had employments where the 2nd pillar products appreciated 4-8% per year (and that goes onto your full amount!), so if you have some 6-digit figure in there it can be a nice cushion.
Thanks, the property component may indeed become a relevant consideration. As I mentioned I'm not educated on the topic but I looked into it briefly and saw a comment that once you reach age 58 you would be a fool not to max out the 3a. The main attraction being to limit your tax liability. I'm only 34 and plan to retire long before the official retirement age. I concluded that I will be better off paying the tax and taking the cash now to invest in superior investments. It would be a different story if in Switzerland we could put it all in SSON like HickvonFrick has done with his wife's pension!
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Old 08.01.2021, 15:49
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Thanks, the property component may indeed become a relevant consideration. As I mentioned I'm not educated on the topic but I looked into it briefly and saw a comment that once you reach age 58 you would be a fool not to max out the 3a. The main attraction being to limit your tax liability. I'm only 34 and plan to retire long before the official retirement age. I concluded that I will be better off paying the tax and taking the cash now to invest in superior investments. It would be a different story if in Switzerland we could put it all in SSON like HickvonFrick has done with his wife's pension!
If you start your 3a at 58 you better not start at all.
3a is still your money, you can just invest it in a limited fashion, but most pension fintech companies now offer something for everyone (frankly, VIAC, finpension).

Every 6800 francs you put in gives you around 1000-1500 francs tax cut (kt ZH, base salary around 100k pa).

The BVG (2nd pillar) you collect are totally tax free (therefore around 20-24% win yearly in Kt ZH) and is a base social net for your wife and kids should anything bad happen to you, God forbid. Once you are ready to retire early, you can take the money to a Vested benefits account (Freizügigketskonto) when you're not in active employment anymore, can use it to buy (or cash out) property or can even cash it out for your own company if you were to create one.

I can see your thinking is a bit more millenial-ish than mine. But don't put all your eggs in one basket. Dumping all in SSON might or might not (have been) a good idea in 25 years' time.

FIRE and saving for one's pension is nothing close to instant gratification, it's a well planned marathon that you need to start early enough and think about your future wife and kids as well. Plus the inevitable market crashes in between.
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