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  #261  
Old 09.01.2021, 21:51
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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It’s the psychology of the market that is scary though not the stocks and companies itself. No matter how much technical analysis has been carried out to to find the pick of the week, any event can turn the fortunes around. Pandemic, attack on Capitol, regulated big techs, giant media culpable for harm because done nothing to prevent it, stimulus package hopes and so on.
I would say regulation is far more of a risk to property than the stock market.
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  #262  
Old 09.01.2021, 22:02
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I would say regulation is far more of a risk to property than the stock market.
Speaking of which that’s something also inevitable for big tech and it might be coming rather sooner than expected:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbi...-for-big-tech/

In my experience, majority of people that I know would use stock market vehicle to generate cash further to invest the proceedings in real estate. I like diversification. But that’s one of the ways of seeing things.

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  #263  
Old 10.01.2021, 10:38
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

I posted below in the Coronavirus thread a few days ago in response to an unfortunate case of incapacity. I think it is valuable information that has a place here. I include everything as it's all connected but of specific importance is the Vorsorgeauftrag and how that could be very helpful with respect to one's equity portfolio (and other assets).

If you are a Swiss resident then there are some very important precautionary documents that you should prepare if you have not done so already.

These are:

Patientenverfügung (Advance Healthcare Directive)
There are two options for this, short and long version. This document specifies how you wish to be treated by medical care personnel in the event of incapacity etc. At the very least you should have the short version completed. Here is a link to the English short version:

https://www.fmh.ch/files/pdf23/fmh_pv_kv_2019_e-v1.pdf

Vorsorgeauftrag (Lasting Power of Attorney)
This is a very important document as it specifies the person(s) that you wish to take decisions on your behalf in the event of incapacity, including healthcare, management of assets, entering into contracts on your behalf etc. My understanding is that even if you are married the Kindes und Erwachsenenschutzbehörde (KESB) can intervene in important decision-making processes on your behalf if this document is not in place. To be valid, the document must be handwritten or notarised.

Testament
Lastly, it's important to have a valid Testament should you wish that your assets are bequeathed in a manner that deviates from law. Again this can be handwritten or notarised.

Of course the hope is that the Patientenverfügung and Vorsorgeauftrag will not be needed but it's important to have them nonetheless. It is not inconceivable to imagine a scenario where you may become temporarily incapacitated and the last thing you want is KESB intervening and liquidating all or some of your holdings during a market downturn.
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  #264  
Old 10.01.2021, 14:47
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

what do you guys think of ARK Fintech Innovation ETF?
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  #265  
Old 10.01.2021, 17:54
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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what do you guys think of ARK Fintech Innovation ETF?
Jeff Bezos, founder, chairman, CEO, and president of Amazon is the richest man in the world. Once in a meeting with Warren Buffett, he asked America’s most prolific investor, your investment thesis is so simple. You’re the second richest guy in the world, and it’s so simple. Why doesn’t everyone just copy you?”

Warren Buffett responded Jeff by saying, “Because nobody wants to get rich slow.”
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  #266  
Old 10.01.2021, 17:58
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Warren Buffett responded Jeff by saying, “Because nobody wants to get rich slow.”
That really sums it up
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  #267  
Old 10.01.2021, 18:04
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Jeff Bezos, founder, chairman, CEO, and president of Amazon is the richest man in the world. Once in a meeting with Warren Buffett, he asked America’s most prolific investor, your investment thesis is so simple. You’re the second richest guy in the world, and it’s so simple. Why doesn’t everyone just copy you?”

Warren Buffett responded Jeff by saying, “Because nobody wants to get rich slow.”
I can hardly believe it myself but Tesla's market cap has now surpassed that of Facebook and Elon Musk is now the richest person in the world!

My guess is that won't last. But as we know the markets aren't rational.
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Old 10.01.2021, 18:13
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I can hardly believe it myself but Tesla's market cap has now surpassed that of Facebook and Elon Musk is now the richest person in the world!

My guess is that won't last. But as we know the markets aren't rational.
I'll blame the eery electric car noise. Irrationally.
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  #269  
Old 10.01.2021, 18:40
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I can hardly believe it myself but Tesla's market cap has now surpassed that of Facebook and Elon Musk is now the richest person in the world!

My guess is that won't last. But as we know the markets aren't rational.
I did in 2007 but it hasn’t helped me just as much
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  #270  
Old 10.01.2021, 20:56
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Around retirement this would be way too risky (I'm getting 41 this year), but it still has a good 15 years to run for me.
Statistically you have 40 years ahead of you, 20 at age 65, subject to your health of course. There's no reason to exit stocks just because of a given birthday if you have sufficient pension, or a year or two in expenses in cash or safe nominal values.
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  #271  
Old 10.01.2021, 21:04
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Statistically you have 40 years ahead of you, 20 at age 65, subject to your health of course. There's no reason to exit stocks just because of a given birthday if you have sufficient pension, or a year or two in expenses in cash or safe nominal values.
Even with zero pension you need to stay invested until death, imagine if you lived 40 years in retirement & inflation was in the 5 - 10% range, pretty much what would have happened to someone retiring in the UK in 1965.
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  #272  
Old 10.01.2021, 23:39
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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It’s the psychology of the market that is scary though not the stocks and companies itself. No matter how much technical analysis has been carried out to to find the pick of the week, any event can turn the fortunes around. Pandemic, attack on Capitol, regulated big techs, giant media culpable for harm because done nothing to prevent it, stimulus package hopes and so on.
Can you do better than Bob?

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  #273  
Old 11.01.2021, 02:45
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Even with zero pension you need to stay invested until death, imagine if you lived 40 years in retirement & inflation was in the 5 - 10% range, pretty much what would have happened to someone retiring in the UK in 1965.
You're misunderstanding.
Without a decent cash cushion at the start, you have one once you've sold enough, at which point the "no need to exit" kicks in. I could have made this a bit clearer.
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  #274  
Old 21.01.2021, 22:42
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

I was excited to receive Fundsmith's Annual Letter to shareholders yesterday. A couple of key takeaways:

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One of the conclusions that you might draw from the economic effects of pandemics is that they do not so much cause new trends but rather they accelerate some existing trends.
If previous pandemics are anything to go by there may well be a boom coming although it seems likely that this won't be the case for all sectors.

I particularly liked the close of the letter

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What are the similarities between a forecaster and a one-eyed javelin thrower? Answer: Neither is likely to be very accurate but they are typically good at keeping the attention of the audience.
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  #275  
Old 22.01.2021, 01:10
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Not adding SMT because of too high TSLA exposure
Not adding ARKK because of too high TSLA exposure
both of these products are down from owning 12-14% TSLA to around 9%.

I've actually picked up some ARKK now.

SMT still seems risky with approx. 18% of holdings being in China.
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  #276  
Old 22.01.2021, 16:11
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I've actually picked up some ARKK now..
I am afraid you may be late to the party mate.
Many robinhood users now (try to) replicate ARK strategies. Also, Ark has had a 10x surge in AUM in the last year alone.
As an example, as soon as Ark announced a "space ETF", space related stocks surged 50% in just a few days. That happened before the ETF started trading.
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  #277  
Old 22.01.2021, 16:16
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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both of these products are down from owning 12-14% TSLA to around 9%.

I've actually picked up some ARKK now.

SMT still seems risky with approx. 18% of holdings being in China.
I hold quite a bit of SMT and also have a relatively large holding in JCGI.
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  #278  
Old 22.01.2021, 16:21
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I am afraid you may be late to the party mate.
Many robinhood users now (try to) replicate ARK strategies. Also, Ark has had a 10x surge in AUM in the last year alone.
As an example, as soon as Ark announced a "space ETF", space related stocks surged 50% in just a few days. That happened before the ETF started trading.
Alas, Cpt Hindsight would be filthy rich now.
Same as buying TSLA in 2019. But we can't do that, can we?

If you look around, most everything has a ridiculous valuation (tech-driven stocks and real estate, mostly). These valuations might or might not burst in the coming years, given that Biden seems tech-friendly and the US is nowhere near the option to ease off of low interest rates and their QE.

If they do burst, you can buy more cheaper and enjoy the benefits of DCA.
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Old 22.01.2021, 16:50
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Alas, Cpt Hindsight would be filthy rich now.
Same as buying TSLA in 2019. But we can't do that, can we?

If you look around, most everything has a ridiculous valuation (tech-driven stocks and real estate, mostly). These valuations might or might not burst in the coming years, given that Biden seems tech-friendly and the US is nowhere near the option to ease off of low interest rates and their QE.

If they do burst, you can buy more cheaper and enjoy the benefits of DCA.
You are obviously not aware of Janus fund, just to name one.
https://www.forbes.com/forbes/2007/0129/080.html

History doesn't pepeat itself, but it often rhymes.
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Old 22.01.2021, 18:45
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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You are obviously not aware of Janus fund, just to name one.
https://www.forbes.com/forbes/2007/0129/080.html

History doesn't pepeat itself, but it often rhymes.
Besides the anecdotal evidence that every fund manager can fail (and therefore we limit exposure and diversify), what are you trying to suggest?
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