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  #401  
Old 11.02.2021, 22:14
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I think many share this sentiment and one of the reasons for my question. It's usually acknowledged that a period of outperformance is unlikely to be repeated. Could you say the opposite and consider that Berkshire's lacklustre performance in the last decade might result in it performing much better in the next decade?
Buffett basically has been saying for 5-10 years that while it gets ever more difficult he's confident they can keep beating the market, but it doesn't look like it. Even if you exclude 2020/21, which brought some moves and valuations I'd find very difficult to rationalise, 10-15 years of at best so-so performance is a long time when market drops are mirrored 1:1.
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  #402  
Old 15.02.2021, 12:18
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I’m a bit shocked by that statement. Fundsmith returned 25.6% in 2019 and 18.3% in 2020 and to date has averaged 17.8% annually. Honestly, if it returns 15% for me over the long term I will be ecstatic.
Perhaps helpful to point out the returns you quote are in GBP. The price return on Fundsmith GBP I Acc was approximately 28.5% in CHF terms in 2019 and 11.5% in 2020. Annualized return 19.7% in CHF over the 2 years. Smithson price return 28.3% annualized in CHF over the same time period

Thanks for starting this great thread Polymath. I have 80% of my stock market investments in Fundsmith and Smithson. It’s reassuring to have some support for my investment decisions from the discussion. No one in the real world wants to listen to me…
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  #403  
Old 15.02.2021, 14:58
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Buffett basically has been saying for 5-10 years that while it gets ever more difficult he's confident they can keep beating the market, but it doesn't look like it. Even if you exclude 2020/21, which brought some moves and valuations I'd find very difficult to rationalise, 10-15 years of at best so-so performance is a long time when market drops are mirrored 1:1.
Some of his decisions in recent years have been pretty questionable. He seems to have owned numerous banks and airlines - businesses i'd never invest in.
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  #404  
Old 16.02.2021, 14:49
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Not adding SMT because of too high TSLA exposure
Not adding ARKK because of too high TSLA exposure
They have now both massively reduced TSLA exposure (from ~12% to 6-8%), maybe it's worth having a retro to see what we've missed in the last 90 days.
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  #405  
Old 16.02.2021, 15:24
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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They have now both massively reduced TSLA exposure (from ~12% to 6-8%), maybe it's worth having a retro to see what we've missed in the last 90 days.
Whatever happens from here on in they've won massively from Tesla.

I'm more interested in EWI than SMT from the BG stable.
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  #406  
Old 16.02.2021, 17:45
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

Hi All,

Apologies if this is a stupid question, but how can I buy SSON? I work in Geneva but live in France; have degiro.ch and degiro.fr accounts but SSON is not available on either of them. From reading through the forum, some appear to be buying through HL in the UK or through IB. I don't see anything on the Smithson site about how to buy in....is it only available to UK or CH tax-resident investors and that's why I'm not seeing it? Am I missing something obvious?

Many thanks!
J
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  #407  
Old 16.02.2021, 17:48
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Hi All,

Apologies if this is a stupid question, but how can I buy SSON? I work in Geneva but live in France; have degiro.ch and degiro.fr accounts but SSON is not available on either of them. From reading through the forum, some appear to be buying through HL in the UK or through IB. I don't see anything on the Smithson site about how to buy in....is it only available to UK or CH tax-resident investors and that's why I'm not seeing it? Am I missing something obvious?

Many thanks!
J
I can only confirm it's available on IB
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  #408  
Old 16.02.2021, 17:56
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I can only confirm it's available on IB
...and do you know by any chance please if that IB availability is restricted by country, ie only to CH tax residents? Or how to find that out? (short of calling/e-mailing IB I guess)

But it comes down to it, looks like I may be opening an IB account finally and moving from Degiro if that's the only way...
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  #409  
Old 16.02.2021, 18:00
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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...and do you know by any chance please if that IB availability is restricted by country, ie only to CH tax residents? Or how to find that out? (short of calling/e-mailing IB I guess)

But it comes down to it, looks like I may be opening an IB account finally and moving from Degiro if that's the only way...
i wouldn't know to be honest but I don't see why it would be restricted. maybe someone living in France can confirm
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  #410  
Old 16.02.2021, 18:57
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Hi All,

Apologies if this is a stupid question, but how can I buy SSON? I work in Geneva but live in France; have degiro.ch and degiro.fr accounts but SSON is not available on either of them. From reading through the forum, some appear to be buying through HL in the UK or through IB. I don't see anything on the Smithson site about how to buy in....is it only available to UK or CH tax-resident investors and that's why I'm not seeing it? Am I missing something obvious?

Many thanks!
J
????

I own SSON on degiro.CH

Edit: I see it has disappeared. This happened before with SMT, which came back then disappeared again. Not really sure what's going on. I've emailed them. SSON is a listed company so you should definitely be able to buy it irrespective of residence.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 16.02.2021 at 19:09.
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  #411  
Old 16.02.2021, 20:05
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

Have you watched this interview with Jeremy Grantham? Forget the headline, but what he has to say makes sense at least to an old fashioned guy like me.

https://youtu.be/RYfmRTyl56w

Not sure how this embedding clips works, old fashioned me. Maybe someone more sophisticated can fix this.
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  #412  
Old 16.02.2021, 21:12
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Have you watched this interview with Jeremy Grantham? Forget the headline, but what he has to say makes sense at least to an old fashioned guy like me.

https://youtu.be/RYfmRTyl56w

Not sure how this embedding clips works, old fashioned me. Maybe someone more sophisticated can fix this.
People were saying this 12 months ago. I've since had 70% gains. There will be a downturn at some point but trying to time it is a fools game
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  #413  
Old 16.02.2021, 21:18
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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People were saying this 12 months ago. I've since had 70% gains. There will be a downturn at some point but trying to time it is a fools game
Fair enough. I am scaling back on US and tech. We can talk again when Tesla reaches P/E of 2000

70%, and your kid still outperformed you?

Last edited by komsomolez; 16.02.2021 at 21:31.
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  #414  
Old 16.02.2021, 21:42
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Fair enough. I am scaling back on US and tech. We can talk again when Tesla reaches P/E of 2000

70%, and your kid still outperformed you?
She's 100% in BG positive change so is over 80%. I'm mostly in BG (SMT, EWI, PHI, KPC, Positive Change, Global Discovery), with a sprinkling of Smithson / FS / FEET and JP Morgan China Growth and Income.

I don't have much PHI - I was getting a bit scared of the premium and moved into JCGI. Both have performed extremely well since.

To an extent I've been greedily buying into a trend (although have been doing so way before the peak whenever it comes), but I've also seriously increased my exposure to FS funds (although not so much the main fund itself).

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 16.02.2021 at 22:42.
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  #415  
Old 17.02.2021, 11:05
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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????

I own SSON on degiro.CH

Edit: I see it has disappeared. This happened before with SMT, which came back then disappeared again. Not really sure what's going on. I've emailed them. SSON is a listed company so you should definitely be able to buy it irrespective of residence.
Good to know thanks! Would be very interested to hear what Degiro say back to you please and/or when you see it available again to buy with Degiro. Would save me going through the process of opening with IB if it came to it....
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  #416  
Old 17.02.2021, 12:06
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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She's 100% in BG positive change so is over 80%. I'm mostly in BG (SMT, EWI, PHI, KPC, Positive Change, Global Discovery), with a sprinkling of Smithson / FS / FEET and JP Morgan China Growth and Income.

I don't have much PHI - I was getting a bit scared of the premium and moved into JCGI. Both have performed extremely well since.

To an extent I've been greedily buying into a trend (although have been doing so way before the peak whenever it comes), but I've also seriously increased my exposure to FS funds (although not so much the main fund itself).
We have a very similar investment profile. Your list pretty much matches mine, though I've stopped investing in Fundsmith in recent times and channelled more cash into China and BG Global funds. But having watched the video posted earlier - the interview with Jeremy Grantham - I'm beginning to ask myself those impossible questions. At what point do bold investment decisions start looking like greed? Is greed even a real thing, or is one simply trying to take advantage of a trend? Like many, I've done very well in the last year i.e. been lucky. I don't pretend it's anything to do with skill on my part (though no doubt there's skill involved among the fund managers). Just keeping an eye on trends. We all agree that it's impossible to time the markets but I'm starting to wonder whether I'm approaching an exit to preserve my gains -- or at least to start switching into less volatile choices. It's perhaps more critical for me as I'm not far off retirement. If I was under 40, even 50, I wouldn't care. More time to recover from a serious punch.

Sorry, just thinking aloud! No one can offer definitive advice, I know, but there are some wise investors on this forum. What would others do in my position? Thank you for any thoughts.
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  #417  
Old 17.02.2021, 12:31
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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We have a very similar investment profile. Your list pretty much matches mine, though I've stopped investing in Fundsmith in recent times and channelled more cash into China and BG Global funds. But having watched the video posted earlier - the interview with Jeremy Grantham - I'm beginning to ask myself those impossible questions. At what point do bold investment decisions start looking like greed? Is greed even a real thing, or is one simply trying to take advantage of a trend? Like many, I've done very well in the last year i.e. been lucky. I don't pretend it's anything to do with skill on my part (though no doubt there's skill involved among the fund managers). Just keeping an eye on trends. We all agree that it's impossible to time the markets but I'm starting to wonder whether I'm approaching an exit to preserve my gains -- or at least to start switching into less volatile choices. It's perhaps more critical for me as I'm not far off retirement. If I was under 40, even 50, I wouldn't care. More time to recover from a serious punch.

Sorry, just thinking aloud! No one can offer definitive advice, I know, but there are some wise investors on this forum. What would others do in my position? Thank you for any thoughts.
Market timing does not work, we were in a bear market in March that seems to have been forgotten especially by the gentleman in the video.

You should be invested in Fundsmith, its highly defensive & will protect you far better when things get rough & will recover quicker than the market. Investment is a long term game, there are always things to worry about, BREXIT was one 4 years ago yet markets are far higher than 4 years ago.
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  #418  
Old 17.02.2021, 18:15
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

Also a question regarding Fundsmith please, does anyone have any experience of opening an account with them over the phone? I called the number listed on fundsmith.co.uk (0330 123 1815) to inquire about the Sustainable Equity Fund and was told the only way to open an account from overseas is via the phone or via postal application. I was pleasantly surprised when the agent told me they could open an account and place a first order for me immediately on the first phone call, and that identifcation docs etc could come later.

As I say, pleasantly surprised that it's not more hassle than that, but also somewhat wary and it seems a bit dodgy to place orders for someone before ID etc is validated...but then again I don't have much experience in these things so perhaps it's not that rare? I just know that with Degiro there was a fair amount of "due diligence" from their side before I could place any orders.

So....am I right to be wary? Any thoughts please?

Thanks as always!
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  #419  
Old 17.02.2021, 18:29
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Also a question regarding Fundsmith please, does anyone have any experience of opening an account with them over the phone? I called the number listed on fundsmith.co.uk (0330 123 1815) to inquire about the Sustainable Equity Fund and was told the only way to open an account from overseas is via the phone or via postal application. I was pleasantly surprised when the agent told me they could open an account and place a first order for me immediately on the first phone call, and that identifcation docs etc could come later.

As I say, pleasantly surprised that it's not more hassle than that, but also somewhat wary and it seems a bit dodgy to place orders for someone before ID etc is validated...but then again I don't have much experience in these things so perhaps it's not that rare? I just know that with Degiro there was a fair amount of "due diligence" from their side before I could place any orders.

So....am I right to be wary? Any thoughts please?

Thanks as always!
They'll do a full check before you sell, so anyone using a fake identity wouldn't get far.

I opened my account online whilst in Switzerland (owned via HL before that)
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  #420  
Old 17.02.2021, 18:36
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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We have a very similar investment profile. Your list pretty much matches mine, though I've stopped investing in Fundsmith in recent times and channelled more cash into China and BG Global funds. But having watched the video posted earlier - the interview with Jeremy Grantham - I'm beginning to ask myself those impossible questions. At what point do bold investment decisions start looking like greed? Is greed even a real thing, or is one simply trying to take advantage of a trend? Like many, I've done very well in the last year i.e. been lucky. I don't pretend it's anything to do with skill on my part (though no doubt there's skill involved among the fund managers). Just keeping an eye on trends. We all agree that it's impossible to time the markets but I'm starting to wonder whether I'm approaching an exit to preserve my gains -- or at least to start switching into less volatile choices. It's perhaps more critical for me as I'm not far off retirement. If I was under 40, even 50, I wouldn't care. More time to recover from a serious punch.

Sorry, just thinking aloud! No one can offer definitive advice, I know, but there are some wise investors on this forum. What would others do in my position? Thank you for any thoughts.
It is partly down to stomach though. There were people telling me not to buy BG funds at not much more than 50% of their current valuation. People who were overly concerned with valuation have missed out big time. That's a lesson that's been repeated over and over again over the last decade. On a pretty modest portfolio size I've earned well more than income from employment in 2020.

I certainly wouldn't exit completely. Even if there's a crash you should recover in a few years. If you need to dial down your risk by all means buy some SSON and FS. I think it depends not only on your age, but also on your wealth. If you have a small pot then perhaps you need to be conservative, but if you are sitting on 5-10m I'd be going hell for leather still.

I'm going to continue adding into BG but also into SSON and FEET. But then im 32. I think the main FS fund is a bit of a grandpa fund. Excellent at delivering above market returns at low risk - but younger people should probably be dialling up the risk somewhat.
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