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  #461  
Old 19.02.2021, 12:06
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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You would not have been able to buy much Smithson at 900, it was at that level for a very short period of time with a huge discount. Just for a very short period sellers outnumbered buyers & someone sold a lot of stock in an illiquid market.
Given the pound has strengthened about 20-25% over the dollar since then that 900 is even cheaper than it looks.
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  #462  
Old 19.02.2021, 16:31
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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You would not have been able to buy much Smithson at 900, it was at that level for a very short period of time with a huge discount. Just for a very short period sellers outnumbered buyers & someone sold a lot of stock in an illiquid market.
Smithson was at and under 900 several times on 18 & 19 March 2020 and I buy small lots relative to the market

In any case my lesson is that I did not have a clear plan what I would do if the markets went down. Next time a large % decrease happens again I will take advantage to buy larger amounts and build the position that I would like to have
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  #463  
Old 19.02.2021, 16:40
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Smithson was at and under 900 several times on 18 & 19 March 2020 and I buy small lots relative to the market

In any case my lesson is that I did not have a clear plan what I would do if the markets went down. Next time a large % decrease happens again I will take advantage to buy larger amounts and build the position that I would like to have
Me too. This was my proper first "crash" (late 2018 was more of a correction in my mind at least), and although I didn't panic, I didn't really have a plan.
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  #464  
Old 19.02.2021, 16:42
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Smithson was at and under 900 several times on 18 & 19 March 2020 and I buy small lots relative to the market

In any case my lesson is that I did not have a clear plan what I would do if the markets went down. Next time a large % decrease happens again I will take advantage to buy larger amounts and build the position that I would like to have
The question, how many shares changed hands below 900p probably a few hundred to a few thousand. I have frequently had orders in for stocks over the years that did not execute even through my buy price was reached for a short period. Daily turnover for Smithson is tiny, I have known days below 20k shares although we are at 282k so far today.
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  #465  
Old 19.02.2021, 16:43
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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You would not have been able to buy much Smithson at 900, it was at that level for a very short period of time with a huge discount. Just for a very short period sellers outnumbered buyers & someone sold a lot of stock in an illiquid market.
I bought SMT for under 600 with my March paycheck.

I sincerely wish I had bought a hell of lot more - whether that, EWI or SSON!

Next time there's a massive crash I'll move out of unit trusts and bag the discount. E.g. reinvest my FS money into SSON.
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  #466  
Old 19.02.2021, 16:48
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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I bought SMT for under 600 with my March paycheck.

I sincerely wish I had bought a hell of lot more - whether that, EWI or SSON!

Next time there's a massive crash I'll move out of unit trusts and bag the discount. E.g. reinvest my FS money into SSON.
There is a delay, with selling a trust of at least a day, longer if you are dealing direct with the manager.
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  #467  
Old 22.02.2021, 17:07
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Smithson was at and under 900 several times on 18 & 19 March 2020 and I buy small lots relative to the market

In any case my lesson is that I did not have a clear plan what I would do if the markets went down. Next time a large % decrease happens again I will take advantage to buy larger amounts and build the position that I would like to have
Agreed. I should have had a better plan. I usually keep 6 months salary in cash, just in case I need it. I should have a plan to invest 60-70% of this in stages when the market drops by 10%, 20% and so on.
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Old 22.02.2021, 22:35
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Smithson was at and under 900 several times on 18 & 19 March 2020 and I buy small lots relative to the market

In any case my lesson is that I did not have a clear plan what I would do if the markets went down. Next time a large % decrease happens again I will take advantage to buy larger amounts and build the position that I would like to have
How would you have known at that time where the bottom would turn out to be?

With hindsight everyone would become a millionaire in no time. But then again, because everybody would chase the same few opportunities the opportunities you see now (with hindsight) wouldn't have come to exist in the first place.
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  #469  
Old 24.02.2021, 00:57
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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How would you have known at that time where the bottom would turn out to be?

With hindsight everyone would become a millionaire in no time. But then again, because everybody would chase the same few opportunities the opportunities you see now (with hindsight) wouldn't have come to exist in the first place.
My lesson is that each time we reach -20, -30, -40% milestones from all time high in the future I will make larger purchases. Without this promise to myself I risk missing the opportunity by trying to figure out if we are at the bottom, which as you say is not a valid strategy

Last edited by jim1; 24.02.2021 at 00:58. Reason: Typo
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  #470  
Old 25.02.2021, 15:19
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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The question, how many shares changed hands below 900p probably a few hundred to a few thousand. I have frequently had orders in for stocks over the years that did not execute even through my buy price was reached for a short period. Daily turnover for Smithson is tiny, I have known days below 20k shares although we are at 282k so far today.
it also depends on who is executing. i found schwab to be terrible at executing limit orders with trades not executing even where the price is below my limit price for extended periods of time. no such issues with IB which is one reason i switched.
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  #471  
Old 07.03.2021, 11:13
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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My lesson is that each time we reach -20, -30, -40% milestones from all time high in the future I will make larger purchases. Without this promise to myself I risk missing the opportunity by trying to figure out if we are at the bottom, which as you say is not a valid strategy
so, SSON is 10% down.
tech is 20% down.
ARK is 25% down.
SMT is 25% down.

Fundsmith is pretty stable

Charts still look like there's place for about another 30% drop easily before returning to the pre-covid chart.

any plans, anyone?

Last edited by user137; 07.03.2021 at 11:28.
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  #472  
Old 07.03.2021, 11:27
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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so, SSON is 10% down.
tech is 20% down.
ARK is 25% down.

any plans, anyone?
Buy more SSON. It will always be more volatile than Fundsmith as it's an investment trust & does not sell at NAV.
SMT for example is off more than 25%, I suspect it could fall a lot further PE of the fund is several hundred, largest holding TSLA has fallen over 30%, it needs to rise 50% to get back to it's high, I suspect it will fall a further 30% if not more.

Remember you are buying a stake in a business, not a lottery ticket, looking at the price daily/weekly/monthly won't help your investment decisions.

I don't look at charts, technicians who do seldom get rich doing so, however 'tech' is absurdly overvalued at todays prices.
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  #473  
Old 07.03.2021, 11:29
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Buy more SSON. It will always be more volatile than Fundsmith as it's an investment trust & does not sell at NAV.
SMT for example is off more than 25%... I suspect it will fall a further 30% if not more.
why would this not apply for SSON?
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  #474  
Old 07.03.2021, 11:34
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

I suspect that after the Senate passed $1.9 trillion stimulus package on Saturday, this should send the stocks soaring on Monday again.
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  #475  
Old 07.03.2021, 11:38
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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why would this not apply for SSON?
SSON holds good companies, as a long term investor price paid it's not so important, the compound growth over the next 30 years will make far more difference than anything else.

Looking at tech Amazon's margin is 2.8%, at least it's (just) profitable at last, not very different to supermarkets in general. Why am I not surprised?
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  #476  
Old 07.03.2021, 11:57
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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SSON holds good companies, as a long term investor price paid it's not so important, the compound growth over the next 30 years will make far more difference than anything else.
SSON is also tech heavy, so it can just as well fall along the tech bubble burst (if that ever comes again). Price paid does matter if it keeps falling another 30%, basically eradicating the profit of the last 5 yrs.

Your definition of "good" is a bit ambiguous, let's just say they are not the top market names, so they might turn out to be anything between a total flop and a superstar in the next 10+ yrs.
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Old 07.03.2021, 11:58
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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so, SSON is 10% down.
tech is 20% down.
ARK is 25% down.
SMT is 25% down.

Fundsmith is pretty stable

Charts still look like there's place for about another 30% drop easily before returning to the pre-covid chart.

any plans, anyone?
I think there was a decent correction last week but I would rather wait before jumping into rally again. Investors were undecided, spooked out and had crisis of confidence after Powell’s projected inflation and high interest rates which made it hard to cool down the market.

To cool off my speculative mind in tech stocks, I invested a portion in safe haven of Nestlé last week.
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  #478  
Old 07.03.2021, 12:01
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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SSON holds good companies, as a long term investor price paid it's not so important, the compound growth over the next 30 years will make far more difference than anything else.

Looking at tech Amazon's margin is 2.8%, at least it's (just) profitable at last, not very different to supermarkets in general. Why am I not surprised?
Amazon grows at > 30% per year, while supermarkets don't.
And the margin on its IT segment are way higher than 2.8%. That's the part of Amazon growing the fastest.
People still believe that Amazon's makes money by selling books. That's not the case.
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  #479  
Old 07.03.2021, 12:22
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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Amazon grows at > 30% per year, while supermarkets don't.
And the margin on its IT segment are way higher than 2.8%. That's the part of Amazon growing the fastest.
People still believe that Amazon's makes money by selling books. That's not the case.
well, Amazon's TAM grows quite nicely with tech taking over the world (more people shopping online, more businesses going to the cloud). It doesn't mean that the online retail will be any significantly more profitable on a larger base than before, but it means that by economies of scale he's gonna be sitting on a massive amount of cash every year.

They will be in retail what FB is today to social. Long way to go, still. Hence the valuation.
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Old 07.03.2021, 12:30
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Re: Equity Portfolio Advice

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SSON is also tech heavy, so it can just as well fall along the tech bubble burst (if that ever comes again). Price paid does matter if it keeps falling another 30%, basically eradicating the profit of the last 5 yrs.

Your definition of "good" is a bit ambiguous, let's just say they are not the top market names, so they might turn out to be anything between a total flop and a superstar in the next 10+ yrs.
Smithson's tech companies all make a high ROCE & high margins, TSLA for example makes 0.05% ROCE, thats 580 times less than Fundsmith companies in the main fund. Amazon ROCE is 0.07% a mere 400 times less than Fundsmith!

Good companies is Terry Smith's definition, the most important being a high ROCE, high gross margin, high operating margin. These 3 no's should be roughly twice as high as the S&P 500 index, leverage should be substantially lower than the index. They are companies who have already won.

Last edited by fatmanfilms; 07.03.2021 at 12:42. Reason: Adding Amazon'd ROCE
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